The Marleau Morass
March 13th, 2008, 9:38 am
So Patrick Marleau has been playing great lately. He saved a goal late in the last game, and had a nice little six points in seven games streak as well. He’s using his speed again, and making strong moves, they way a lot of us have been advocating for most of the season. To a casual outside observer, this could be a run of the mill case of a player slumping early in the season, then finding his groove.
And yet, he’s been blasted in a manner I’ve not seen before as a Sharks fan. Generally the media and fans here are fairly laid back. But the bandwagon jumpers piled on. And this past week, Ryan Garner chose to rip Marleau again, even after his recent resurgence. Garner also said on the Teal Spiel last weekend that regardless of what happens the remainder of this season or the playoffs, Marleau should be traded before his no-trade clause kicks in on July 1. You may have heard my call after that debating some of those points, and I’ll try to flush them out a bit more now.
I completely disagree with that opinion for several reasons. For one, Marleau is a very good player who I would characterize as a consistent 60 to 70 point producer. The last two years have been better than that, but let’s be conservative about it. The Sharks will have to find those goals somewhere next season without Marleau. Who’s gonna give ’em, Marcel Goc? How can you not view this year as an aberration? Save one season (when the Sharks missed the playoffs), Patty’s scored 25 goals every year since 2000. To say that he’s suddenly a punter will require a better argument than I’ve seen anywhere so far.
The second is the damage I believe it will do to the Sharks organization and reputation around the league. Let’s be honest- San Jose isn’t usually on any big UFA’s short list. Name a quality free agent other than Mike Grier that’s signed in San Jose in the last while. It just doesn’t happen. What we do see is players being developed in house, or traded for and re-signed, like Joe, Rivet, McLaren, and God willing, Campbell. Now suppose this- the Sharks’ captain has a bang-up last half (or quarter) of the season, performs well in the playoffs, and is promptly traded. Dontcha think this might put a bit of a damper on the Campbell re-signing effort? Or any other free agent that would be open to coming out west? The message would be this- the Sharks will ship good players, even the captain, when they need to clear salary. Turning around a slump doesn’t matter. No player is safe. In my mind, this will damage the Sharks more than keeping Patty around.
The third is the obvious possibility that Marleau will right himself and get back to the 80-point per year clip (or even better) he’s had the last couple of seasons. And the Sharks will have gotten diminished value for him, probably picks or prospects. Marleau was tied for 29th last year in points, and the names below his could fill an All-Star team. Sundin. Kovalchuk. Kariya. Hejduk. Stall. Richards. Gagne. Need I go on?
I’m not trying to be a Marleau fanboy here. In hindsight, it wasn’t the best decision to give him the captaincy. Maybe the two-year, $13M deal with an NTC was excessive. But those decisions have been made already. What do the Sharks do now?
Since I’m on a roll, I have an answer for that too. We can’t keep everybody. If Marleau goes into the tank again and is invisible in the playoffs, that makes it easier for the Sharks to get rid of him. But if not, we can clear out guys and get picks. Maybe McLaren. Maybe Carle. Maybe the Rizz or Goc. I have to believe that Brown, Plihal, and Semenov won’t be back. Clowe should be cheaper now that he’s been injured the entire season. The elephant in the room is that the Sharks won’t spend to the cap. But if Marleau continues to perform, as quietly as he may do it, the Sharks can’t afford to get rid of him.
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Great post, Mike.
I completely agree (as I showed my support in the last blog post for your call into the Teal Spiel). It’s hard for me to believe how quickly people are able to turn their backs on someone who has grown up with this team and for the most part had success.
I have a feeling these are the same people who were complaining when Marleau was one of the last people to re-sign an extension last year. The type of fans that complain when a long time player leaves for a higher paycheck, or doesn’t give a hometown discount. These people get outraged when players don’t show any loyalty to the city/fans, but are quick to do the same after less than 1 season of sub-par play.
I may be a little more forgiving since I’m a southern CA Sharks fan and see how poorly the Kings do year after year and still get support so the reasonable success the Sharks have been enjoying the last few years only gives me hope for what the future they’ve been working towards. The primary goal is still the Stanley Cup and some sacrifices will need to be made, but I’ve chosen the Sharks as “my” team despite my geography because of the players on the team, how the organization treats their players, and the way the Sharks have tried to grow their success from within.
-b
Marleau is worth something to the Sharks when he’s on his game. He also would have high end trade value. Earlier this year he was basically a defensive nightmare, he was a combined -19 for the first 4 months of the season. Since the start of February he’s a +3, and he’s picked up 10 points.
The ironic thing about all that is, his worst months are typically February and March, so who knows what’s going on with his game.
In 73 career playoff games he has 31 goals but only 157 shots, for a 19.7 shooting percentage… to me that implies he needs to shoot the puck more in the playoffs. He only had 28 shots in 11 games last year in the post season… roughly 2.5 a game, which was drastically reduced from his 3.5 per game the year previous.
Thornton and Cheechoo might be a bigger problem in the playoffs though. Both see their scoring numbers drop in playoff games. They both stop scoring goals, and their shooting percentages drop correspondingly. Marleau is actually pretty clutch in the post season, the other two are MIA in the goal scoring dept.
Lets hope Campbell can help fix that too?
Marleau’s 25 goals per season can easily be absorbed by the continued development of Michalek, Pavelski and Clowe. He’s not a good center because he’s not a good passer and doesn’t control the puck well (although his faceoffs are improved this year). He has streaks of strong play and then disappears.
Further, I just don’t think the money adds up. If McLaren is moved, that leaves approx. $17.5 million under the salary cap. If the Sharks were willing to go up to the cap, they could re-sign Campbell at $6.5 million and keep basically everybody else. That assumes Roenick plays for $1 million and Riss and Shelley get small bumps to 750k each. Clowe gets a one year deal at $2 million.
But here’s the catch, Pavelski and Ehrhoff would both have to sign for $2.5 million. That’s less than “Carle Money”. They are going to be hard pressed to afford both of those guys for half a million less than a healthy scratch. By the way, I left $1.5 million for Goc or someone else, so you could give them each $3 million and bring in a stiff for the 23rd spot. Plihal, Patzold, Semenov, Oz, Kaspar and Iggulden walk or stay in the minors.
But how realistic is it that the organization will go up to $54 million? Moving Carle doesn’t seem likely because of his lack of development, contract and years. So someone else has to be removed from the equation and Marleau can get back that #1 pick we gave up and save the team a lot of money.
Thanks for reading, and thanks for your comments everyone. Let me respond to some things:
b:
These people get outraged when players don’t show any loyalty to the city/fans, but are quick to do the same after less than 1 season of sub-par play.
I purposefully did not say that the Sharks should be loyal to Marleau, but your point is a good one. Personally, I’m a fan of players that stay on one team regardless of what team it is. Although in cases like Sundin, I have trouble understanding it.
Steve, playoff scoring last year was down almost 15% compared to the regular season, so that accounts for a fair amount of the dropoff you mentioned. Goals are just harder to come by, and comparing regular season scoring to playoff scoring is apples to oranges.
Jesse, I doubt you would have said this about Marleau last year. Longest scoreless streak: 3 games. Unlike Bernier, Marleau has a track record of consistent performance. Saying he has “streaks of strong play and then disappears” may be true for this season, but not for his career. Disregarding his other 700+ games of NHL experience is a mistake.
Also, the Carle signing was a gesture of expectations of future performance, not current performance. They are hoping for a DiPietro effect- the contract seems expensive now, but will hopefully pay off as the player improves. I think we all would be surprised as to how many takers the Sharks might get for Carle. Remember that Campbell also wasn’t consistently in the lineup his first couple of years. I’m not saying Carle will become Campbell, but I am saying that blueliners take longer to develop than other players, and I don’t think we should give up on Carle quite yet.
As someone who lost patience with Marleau at the mid-point of the year and thought he should possibly be moved, I’m super pleased to see that he’s rediscovered his game. The frustrating thing about Marleau for most of the year was that he wasn’t scoring, he wasn’t playing good D, he just looked terrible. And slumps don’t last 2/3 of a season for a guy in his prime playing years.
Something was wrong with him, mentally or physically or both. I didn’t think he’d be able to pull out of it, as he hadn’t shown an inkling of his old self for the entire season. As the guy with the C on his chest, he should expect to take the heat for that.
Now that he and Cheechoo are producing, we’re only now seeing what this team’s capable of. The “pile on Joe and dare someone else to score” tactic from other teams doesn’t work when there’s secondary scoring.
And slumps don’t last 2/3 of a season for a guy in his prime playing years.
Daniel Briere. Chris Drury. Alex Tanguay. And the player most similar to Marleau points-wise, Andy McDonald. It happens, justifiable or not.
Interesting thing I just ran across. Did you know Marleau has outscored Rick Nash every year that Nash has been in the league? Surprising (at least to me) but true.
Daniel Briere
He’s on pace for 71 points, or his 2nd highest point total ever, and above his career average of 63 points. He’s had a poor middle of the season, but not a 6 months slump.
Chris Drury
He’s on pace for 56 points, a little under (7%) his career average of 60 points/season.
Alex Tanguay
He’s on pace for 63 points, and his career average is 74 points, so he’s below that (15% lower).
Andy McDonald
His career average is 55 points. He’s on pace for 51 points, a drop-off of 7%. I don’t think he’s the most similar player to Marleau, actually (but that’s another post).
Patrick Marleau
Patrick Marleau is on pace for 44 points. His career average is 63 points. That’s a drop-off of over 30%. The other players (except Briere) slumped, but not this badly, or for such an extended period of time.
I figured this was coming. I’m not certain career average is the number to use. As you put it, these are players in the “prime of their careers”.
Briere is off 25% this year from last (projected). Drury is 27% off, Tanguay 25%, McDonald 50%, and Marleau 56%. So is it a bad slump? You betcha. Does it happen? It does. Keep in mind I’m only looking at this year. I bet I could find a handful of players in the so-called prime of their career that have experienced similar setbacks every single season.
Color me unconvinced that Marleau’s slide is unprecendented, or even particularly rare.
I did not listen to the comments by Ryan, but I happen to agree – Patrick must be traded before his NTC kicks in. Your GM, DW, is a businessman. Businessmen stay in business by selling high and buying low. The best he can hope for is Patty to have a phenominal playoffs. Marleau was arguably untradeable at the deadline. I don’t know what has turned his season around, but it’s a blessing for Doug Wilson.
Here are some reasons to trade the Captain:
As stated before, his production can be absorbed by the younger talent.
Furthermore, the team was winning, albeit less convincingly, without much contribution from Patty.
A case could be made that he has already peaked – why keep a guy past his zenith?
The damage from last spring is going to haunt his relationship with the club going forward – forever!
With his leadership style being questioned, can you see him accepting a Modano situation? It’ll be better to ship him out than to strip him of the captaincy.
No Trade Clauses have been detrimental to several teams this season – learn from them. Don’t get caught with high priced players that WON’T move.
As for the assertion that trading Marleau would hurt the Sharks for attracting UFAs, I disagree. First, you’ve gotta hope that Big Joe can convince his childhood buddy to stay – similar to another Joe getting a UFA to join his team last summer. Second, UFAs will take discounts for winners. Win the Cup, and your task is that much easier. Finally, UFAs are important (at least in their minds), so trying to attract top end talent means they’ve got to have a guaranteed spot. Having an opening at second line center could actually be a selling point.
Thanks JT, I respect your opinion. But you got a lot of ‘ifs’ in there. If the Sharks can still score and if he’s peaked and if he won’t accept losing the C and if the Sharks can get value for him…
As to your last graf, we’ll just have to disagree. I don’t think we’ll see any meaningful UFAs come to town this offseason, we’ll have enough trouble trying to keep who we’ve already got.