So the Sharks tied up the series with a 2-0 win Thursday at the Tank, and boy, was it rocking. There were plenty of things to cheer about. Obviously, the lead story is all about Nabby and his outright robberies of Iginla and Nolan. Let’s not forget Kipper made 41 saves against the Sharks. It’s not as if Nabby stole the game away, and it should have been much closer. I think the Sharks had two or three breakaways that were turned aside by Kipper. If one of those goes in along with another one of the seemingly myriad quality chances, it would have been a blowout.

That’s not to say Nabby’s saves weren’t especially timely. The one in the first would have given Calgary an early lead, and the later one might have changed some momentum in Calgary’s favor. Still, the Sharks mostly controlled play, and the Flames were forced to take a truckload of penalties, which I thought were all reasonable calls.

I have to say I think the Sharks have muscled their way into the driver’s seat, if only for now. They outshot the Flames in both games, won the last in a shutout, and are the best team in the NHL on the road.

I’m glad to see Matt Carle played well last night. The key to the Flames’ success in game 1 seemed to be rushing the D on the breakout, with Frankenstein in there making mistakes again and again with that first pass. Carle’s decisiveness and speed seemed to crack the puzzle in game 2. If Ehrhoff can come back soon, it will only help that cause further.

I have to say I’m amazed at how many Sharks fans seemed surprised at the effort the Calgary Flames turned in during Game 1. How could you have expected any different from Mike Keenan’s boys? They are not afraid of our San Jose Sharks, the “hottest team in the NHL”, they even have what you might consider to be ownage on the Sharks this season. I’ve talked to a few people today who are already ready to write off the season. To that I say – good, don’t watch – we don’t need fair weather fans. The Sharks are not done, I have to believe that this team is better than years past and they are going to rally and find a way to get past Calgary to even up the series 1-1 tonight.

Here are two interesting stats from last night, one surprising and one not. If you watched the game, would you call me a liar if I told you the Sharks outhit the Flames 41-36? It sure didn’t look that way – I think Mike and I would have guessed the Flames outhit us by double digits last night. Nolan and Phaneuf flew around and really laid the body on us. The only noticeable Shark throwing his weight around regularly was Clowe, he led the game with seven hits. The other stat, and perhaps most alarming, was the 19 giveaways the Sharks had – and most of them in their own zone. Brian Campbell has four of the giveaways and, for the first time in Teal, he did not have a good game. The physical nature of the game really took Brian out of his element.

It sounds like Seto and Carle will be in the lineup tonight – so thank god Frankenstein will likely be on the pine, but who will sit amongst the forwards? My guess is Ron Wilson is already pulling the plug on Jody Shelley in the playoffs, after only playing him four minutes last night. I also have an issue with the refs last night, who treated Calgary like the #2 seed and gave Iginla and Phaneuf superstar treatment. It’s our building, the Sharks are the elite team – and they don’t get that respect from the refs at all. I’m not saying Calgary played a dirty game, they didn’t – but two of the calls last night were dressed up by Calgary players and the refs took the bait. So, doesn’t that mean when Saurich even thinks about touching Thornton behind the net, it should be interference? I hope things even out tonight.

Am I a sucker? Should I be jumping off the sinking Sharks ship with the others? Is this going to be just like last year, and the year before? I still believe in my heart that this is the Sharks year and tonight we will see which team is going to show – the team that middled around for 2/3 of the season in 6th place or the best team in the NHL since the trade-deadline. Tonight the Sharks will jump on Calgary early.

San Jose 4 Calgary 2

The Sharks have lost ten of the 22 games Alexei “Frankenstein” Semenov has played this year. That is almost half. That sucks for a team that experts around the country are picking to make a long anticipated run for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Why does this matter? Because, all indications are that Christian Ehrhoff is not healthy enough to play tonight in Game 1 against the Calgary Flames, so Ron Wilson has turned to Frankenstein to pick up the slack. Frankenstein. A brain-eating defensemen who contributes nothing to the club but a disasterous plus/minus stat of -8, which stinks for a guy who played only a quarter of the games this year. Actually, Semenov only had three games this year when he was on the plus side of the number.

What does this say about Matt Carle? Well, it says that Ron Wilson trusts him about as much as a week-old Breakfast Hot Pocket. FLUSH POCKET! He has only seen the ice five times since March 1st. And Ozo’s -3 performance against Dallas in the finale cemented his role as practice dummy. I guess, when you look around, the options are pretty slim. Should the Sharks have hung on to Rob Davison instead of peddling him off for a 7th round pick? We’re about to find out.

East

Montreal vs. Boston: I think the Habs are the Sharks a year ago- a bitchin’ power play, but defense that can take a night or two off. If they run up against a good penalty killing team, they could be in trouble. That being said, Boston has the second-worst PK in the East. Montreal in five.

Pittsburg vs. Ottawa: You have goalie problems, you’ve got playoff problems. And Ottawa has goalie problems. With Malkin and Crosby ready and waiting, it’s all on Gerber. Pittsburg in six.

Washington vs. Philadelphia: Keep in mind that Philly has more points than the Caps, even though the Caps are a #3 seed. I think the Caps have been so focused on trying to make the postseason, they may not be as ready as other teams. Either way, it’ll be great to watch. Philly in seven.

New York Rangers vs. New Jersey: I was on the Rangers’ bandwagon before the season started, and now I’m way off. With Jagr tailing off, and the Gomez/Drury bust, I’d rather put my money on possibly the greatest goaltender of all time. New Jersey in six.

West

Detroit vs. Nashville: The Preds are gonna get streamrolled, plain and simple. Nashville is outmanned in every possible aspect of the game. Detroit in four.

San Jose vs. Calgary: Worst possible draw for the Sharks. This series is going to be long and brutal. This is a Sharks blog, so I’m almost contractually obligated to pick them, but this could be an upset. San Jose in seven.

Minnesota vs. Colorado: Toughest series for me to predict. The Wild are on my s&*! list for laying down on the last day of the season and giving us Calgary instead of the Avs. When they play well it’s stifling, but they are in the middle of the pack for goals against. They won the season series against Colorado, but are now playing against possibly the best defensive defenseman this year. Colorado in seven.

Anaheim vs. Dallas: With Pronger back and Zubov out, I can’t imagine this being a long series. The Stars wanted to dust off their knuckles against the Sharks to be ready to dodge the Pronger Stompin’™, but it won’t be nearly enough. Anaheim in five.

The update: there is no update.  For some reason, this contest has seemingly taken Eklund completely by surprise, even though he organized it and is running it.  The first post was submitted almost three weeks ago, and they’ve only posted 6 matchups out of 32 so far.   The post grier submitted is now horribly and ridiculously out of date- it was a updated punchier version of “Who Do You Want?”  Now that the matchups are set, reading that post will be about as interesting as watching grass grow.  Which is to say more interesting than reading some of the contest posts so far.   We’re going to try and submit a more timely post this week, but we have no idea if it will be accepted.  It almost looks like the pace is slowing down even further- they said they would post three contests per day, and they ended up doing 4 all week.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole thing collapses under its own weight.  My recommendation to Eklund is to just shut the whole thing down, and re-open once you have a clue what you’re doing.

I loved seeing Joe Thornton throw bombs at Ott yesterday. I didn’t care that we lost 4-2, we never would have lost if Rivet, Grier, JR, and Ehrhoff had been in the lineup.

Here are my first round predictions, and I’m sure Mike will follow suit later today. I’m pretty pissed off about the Sharks playoff schedule. I don’t like the back-to-back Game 1 and 2, but looking at the HP Pavilion schedule loaded with Sabercats games and concerts, there really was no other choice.

THE EAST
(1) Montreal vs. (8) Boston – They played eight times this year. The Habs won all eight. Not much to say here, Boston is easy picking for the Habs in Round One. Won’t be close. Montreal in four.

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Ottawa – The Penguins could not have been thrilled to draw the Ottawa Senators in the first round. Sort of like how the Sharks probably feel the Flames aren’t much of a reward for finishing #2 in the conference – but I digress. This would be the best series in Round One if both teams were healthy, but no Fisher and no Alfredsson means good times for Crosby/Malkin and Co. The over/under for all games should be like seven. Pittsburgh in six.

(3) Washington vs. (6) Philadelphia – This will be the best series in Round One with two teams both riding high. The Flyers are 7-2-1 in their last ten, the Caps 9-1-0. It’s going to be physical and fun, but it all will come down to goaltending in the end – and the edge has to go to Huet. I think Penguins/Capitals in Round Two will have TV executives and fans of the game drooling in anticipation. Washington in seven.

(4) New Jersey vs. (5) NY Rangers – The Rangers have owned the Devils this season, winning seven out of eight games. I’m not a fan of this Devils team, they aren’t as talented or capable of making a long playoff run. Brodeur will manage to steal one game, but the Rangers should roll. New York in five.

THE WEST
(1) Detroit vs. (8) Nashville – The Preds haven’t proven they can succeed in April, but this is a slightly different roster that plays more blue-collar without Kariya, which is just the type of team that could give the Wings fits. No one expected Nashville to make the playoffs except for Nashville. Detroit will look rusty, possibly drop Game 1 and 2, but in the end, the Wings are just too good, and will claw back to take the series. Detroit in six.

(2) San Jose vs. (7) Calgary – If you are a regular reader, and if you are, god bless you – then you know I was dreading this potential first round foe. I think Calgary is going to give the Sharks everything they can handle and more, and they will be confident with Kipper in the pipes. This will be a dogfight and if the Sharks are going to win the Cup, their road starts rough. Several of the experts are already pointing their fingers at this series as a potential upset but San Jose is too skilled and primed to overcome their postseason demons. Calgary has sputtered down the stretch and given up too many goals this year to hang with the Sharks in the long run. San Jose in six.

(3) Minnesota vs. (6) Colorado – The Old vs. The Boring. You couldn’t catch me watching a game of this series on Center Ice….okay,okay – I’m a whore for hockey. I will probably watch – but I won’t like it! Minnesota has no answer for the magic prunes consumed in the Avs dressing room – I’ll be rooting for the Wild but the Avs are destined to face the Wings in Round Two. Here’s hoping Forsberg ruptures something. Colorado in five.

(4) Anaheim vs. (5) Dallas – The Stars had great success vs. Anaheim this year, taking five out of eight, but I just don’t think the series is going to be that interesting. The Ducks know how to show up when it matters and Dallas showed on Sunday that they may try to play physical but their tough guy Ott got his ass kicked by Thunder Joe. No Zubov + Turco choking in the nets again = Anaheim in five.

Even though their paths may be the most difficult, could the stars be alligning for a Pittsburgh/San Jose Stanley Cup??

This the time of year when we all realize how much of a crapshoot the NHL really is. For our long-time readers, both grier and I predicted the division standings way back in September. Today is the day to be accountable for the destruction we have wrought. As a good little math nerd, I put a spreadsheet together to calculate how we did. To determine how bad a prediction was, we just take the difference between the final standing and the predicted standing. By far the worst prediction of the year was made by yours truly, picking the Lightning to win the division, when in fact they finished last, and last in the conference too. So that would get a 4- the difference between actual (5) and predicted (1). The lowest combined total wins.

After all that work, it’s a friggin tie. If the stupid Wild managed to win against the Avs today, two good things would have come of it: 1) I would have won and proven my superiority over grier once and for all, and b) the Sharks would be facing the Avs in Round 1, clearly a better draw than the Flames.  Thanks for nothing, Wild.  Have fun losing in the first round.

It had to happen at some point, right? The Sharks finally lost a game in regulation, for the first time in 21 games they didn’t get a point, and I think it was a good thing. Why? Because this team has to remember how to bounce back after a loss – and a lackluster effort – and we don’t want this challenge to come for the first time after they lose a game in the playoffs.

Bottom Line – The Sharks are facing one of the most difficult paths to the Stanley Cup Finals in recent memory – with Calgary as their most likely first round opponent. That means if Colorado beats Minnesota in the first round (which I think is likely) then San Jose will have to go through Calgary, Anaheim and the Red Wings in order to reach the Finals. Brutal. Last year the Ducks had Minnesota and Vancouver in the first two rounds, which is a cake walk compared to what lies ahead for San Jose. I look at the more difficult path the Wings had last year, with Calgary and San Jose in the first two rounds, and wonder how much that took out of them when they had to face the Ducks in Finals. The Wings had two more games than the Ducks and were engaged in a very physical first round series with Calgary. Should Sharks fans expect the same from the Flames this year, if that is who we draw….um – yes. Calgary is the 5th most penalized team in the NHL this season and thrives on a physical game. They won the season series 3-1 vs. San Jose, winning three straight where the Sharks suffered meltdowns at the end and gave the games away BUT all of these games were played B.C. (Before Campbell) and we Sharks fans know this is a much different team now.

The Sharks needed to lose last night so they can refocus, look at the task at hand and prepare for what is bound to be an exciting, but extremely challenging, playoff run.

Lot’s of buzz about the Vezina race right now. Article in the Merc, article on ESPN.com, and others are putting in their two cents. Time for mine, although they are only worth 1.87 Canadian cents now.

Rob Neyer has done something similar in baseball to ranking pitchers, and a I know I read a breakdown like this before, though I can’t find the post. Either Mirtle, PuckStopsHere, or BoC. Sorry I can find the cite, but the message is this- I didn’t invent this system.

For the major categories, you just put the ranking of each contestant, not their stats, and you can use the average ranking as a way to compare. Here goes:

Now if you strictly took the top three as Vezina Finalists, you’d have Brodeur, Giguere, and Nabby. We all know that’s not going to happen. Luongo will be a finalist, no question. He’s viewed, not rightly so in my mind, as a slam-dunk finalist. It does bother me that some players get anointed as great regardless of their actual results. If Luongo was named, oh, I don’t know, “Lundqvist” or something, we wouldn’t be talking about this in the same way.

It’s really hard for me to be objective here, because I know Nabby is the MVP of the Sharks. Without his consistent play, the trials we witnessed in November through January would have been a hell of a lot worse. The unbelievable streak we are on is in no small part to Nabby’s performance.

My prediction is that Nabby will not be named a finalist, for a two reasons:

• The Sharks play on the west coast which doesn’t get as much media attention as the East Coast or Canadian teams. Nabby technically did have a shot at setting a wins record, which helps his cause. However, I think people will argue (rightly or wrongly) that his wins are more of a result of him playing so many games.
• I think this comment by puckstopshere in a comment on his blog is indicative of a sentiment: “Nabokov may be a good goalie, but any Vezina chances he has are largely a product of playing a lot of games behind a good defence, as opposed to being a Vezina worthy goalie.” Rant time. Nabby may be a good goalie? Can anyone honestly present an argument that Nabby isn’t a good goalie that won’t make me blow milk out of my nose? Also, It bugs me that this standard isn’t applied consistently. When Brodeur puts up good stats when he’s behind the #1 ranked conference defense (by GA) in the East, he’s a great goalie. When Luongo puts up good stats behind the #5 ranked defense, he’s a great goalie. When Giguere does it behind the #3 defense (only one more goal allowed than the Sharks), he’s great. When Nabby does it behind the #2 defense it’s because of the defense, not because he’s great. Give me a formula, heuristic, or methodology to explain that, and let’s discuss it on merit, instead of some voodoo feeling.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter, because Brodeur is going to win it, and he should.

Quick note, Teal Spiel fans – the host, Chetan Chaudhari, will be on Sharksbuzz  tonight – an  internet radio show run by the Sharks bloggers at hockeybuzz.com.    They have a mechanism to call in as well.  Ask Chetan if he’s figured out how to put on hockey pads yet.    Don’t worry, he’ll know what you mean.  And I’m certain he’ll be thrilled with the question.