What’s Campbell Worth?
May 8th, 2008, 8:36 am
Clearly one of the biggest discussion topics for Sharks fans until July 1st will be the potential for signing Brian Campbell to a long term deal. Multiple reports around the trading deadline indicated the problem with Buffalo’s proposals wasn’t the amount of money, but the term of the contract. Rumors were that Campbell wanted more years than the Sabres were willing to give him. TSN reported shortly before the deadline that the Sabres offered him 3 years, less than $6M per year.
The question is, what is a likely amount that Campbell could get on the open market, and is he worth it?
The Calgary Flames actually offer a decent answer to the first question. They have two defensemen that bookend Campbell fairly well. On one side is Dion Phaneuf, a Norris nominee, huge hitter, pain in the ass, and solid 50-60 point player. Basically, Campbell’s offensive output plus physicality and a bit of defense. I say only a “bit of defense” because Phaneuf is barely in the top half of GAON/60 (that’s even-strength goals against per 60 minutes). Campbell is worse by about a quarter of a goal per game, but he’s better in GFON/60 (that’s even strength goals for per 60) by about a quarter of a goal.
Phaneuf starts a new contract next year, averaging $6.5M per year for six years.
On the other side of Campbell is Robyn Regehr. Regehr is a solid defensive defenseman, and we all remember his matchup on Jumbo the entire Calgary series. Regehr has a much better GAON/60 than Campbell (and Phaneuf, by the way) but his GFON/60 is a half-goal worse than Campbell. More or less what we would expect. All three players have roughly the same quality of teammates and quality of competition.
Regehr also starts a new contract next year, averaging $4M per year for five years. His individual stats this year were 20 pts, +11, and I’d say Calgary got a pretty good deal. Better than Hannan’s numbers, and Hannan got $4.5M.
Pretty clear Campbell falls within these two somewhere. One thing to mention- defensive defenseman are more available than a player with Campbell’s offensive skill, so a premium will be paid for that. Scarcity creates a market.
A third data point is Brian Rafalski. Rafalski had 55 points (same as last year with NJ) and was +27. He had a much better GAON/60 than any of the players mentioned above, and a better GFON/60 than anybody but Campbell. It should be noted his quality of teammates stat is off the friggin’ charts, so his numbers are inflated somewhat. Rafalski just started a contract that pays him $6M for five years.
I’d put Rafalski a bit above Campbell, so I think we’ve triangulated his market spot pretty accurately. Final verdict: 6 years, $35M. Given Campbell’s age and playing style (Phaneuf is going to get hurt more than Campbell, which is a nice way of saying Campbell is a bit of a wuss) I think he’s worth it. A power play QB is something the Sharks have needed for years, and now we have a great one right in our lap. The Sharks, for whatever reason, just don’t sign big-time free agents, and our early playoff exit (again) isn’t going to change that. All of our best players were traded for and re-signed, or drafted. Let’s add Campbell to that list.
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“A power play QB is something the Sharks have needed for years” – AGREED
“Now we have a great one right in our lap” – TOTALLY DISAGREE!
Great is a word that’s used way too loosely these days. Did the Sharks improve their power play with Campbell during the regular season? Hell yes. Did the same success tranfer over to the playoffs when it really counted? Hell no.
Campbell is FAR from great. He was practically a nonfactor in both playoff series this year. Can it get any easier to knock this guy off the puck? Even his playoff stats in Buffalo were disappointing. It’s obvious that this guy is not a big game, playoff-caliber performer. You can’t pay big money for a player who doesn’t show up when it matters most. If Matt Carle can just pull his head out, you’ve got a younger and cheaper Brian Campbell.
6 years, $35 mil? PUH-LEASE! THAT’S RIDICULOUS!
I think the money and term are right Mike. I would make it an even 36M. I gotta disagree again Jerry, Campbell did show up and score a huge goal in Game Five against Dallas. He is never going to dish out mega-hits and play a physical game, but neither than Gonchar or Zubov. The Sharks need to add another defensive defensemen to replace Ehrhoff and McLaren….more on this later from me.
I don’t see how Campbell can be described as a nonfactor in the Dallas series. Game tying goal in game 4, assisted on the game winner in game 5. +4, when the Sharks only scored 11 goals. Logged significant SH and PP time in every game. Led the team in ice time, averaging over 28:00.
I guess we don’t see eye to eye on this. I can’t find anybody with even half as much promise as Campbell on the UFA list. Can you?
One more thought that might drive the price of Campbell down is the availability of Kaberle, Kubina, McCabe and Pitkanen (RFA) during the offseason. These guys all have offensive upside and contract under 5M, so why pay 6M for Cambell if these boys can be had via trade…
Let me ask you this. Who made the bigger impact in the Sharks/Flames series? Dion Phaneuf or Brian Campbell? I think we can all agree that it wasn’t even close. Phaneuf was the man and Campbell was worthless. Campbell’s better suited to play in the Eastern Conference where there’s more open ice. As another blogger wrote, “Soupy is the hockey equivalent of the kid in left field that’s making daisy chains during a little league game.”
Campbell is the type of player that can get your team into the playoffs. But he doesn’t have the ability to take his game to the next level during the second season – when it really counts. Is that worth $36 mil over 6 years?
You could say that about roughly half the players in the NHL- 16 teams make the playoffs, but only one wins the Cup. Actually, you could say the same thing about several Sharks players. Does this mean you think Joe is overpaid, and should be bought out?
Saying Campbell is worthless is just spouting off, Jerry. He led a good team in ice time, was a +4 and scored a huge goal with the entire season riding on his shoulders.
Is he as good as Phaneuf? No. I would rather have Phaneuf in a heartbeat. But players as dominate as Phaneuf as rare in this league. Getting another tough veteran D like Rivet is on my list of suggestions in the offseason to compliment Campbell so he’s not overworked and in match ups where he can’t be overpowered.
I’m glad we can agree that Phaneuf is better than Campbell. In fact, I believe you used the word “dominant” to describe Phaneuf. I don’t think anybody will ever associate Campbell with such praise. If Phaneuf is just starting a contract that pays him an average of $6.5 mil, how can we justify Campbell averaging $6 mil annually? It’s not like Campbell is a shade below Phaneuf. Campbell is by-in-large a one-dimensional player. I’m not saying Campbell’s flat-out worthless. He’s simply underwhelming in the playoffs. Sure, he scored one big goal. Big fat hairy deal. Where was he in all the other games? Turning the puck over and getting his ass handed to him, that’s where. I don’t know why we’re even arguing about this. Everyone kept saying that Campbell wasn’t playing well and that he needed to step up. Or have we forgotten so quickly because of one goal?
Bottom line is, if a guy like Phaneuf who came up big during the playoffs and is “a Norris nominee, huge hitter” as you described is worth $6.5 mil, then a soft, one-dimensional player like Campbell is worth perhaps $4.5 mil. I know you’re going to say that’s what Hannan gets paid and Campbell’s better than Hannan. Obviously Colorado overpaid and we knew it when it happened last year. But that’s what desperate teams do. So I guess it’s a done deal. Campbell will be a Shark for $36 mil over 6 years. Ugh.
He’s simply underwhelming in the playoffs. Sure, he scored one big goal. Big fat hairy deal. Where was he in all the other games?
Playing 28 minutes as a plus player, both shorthanded and man-advantaged.
Everyone kept saying that Campbell wasn’t playing well and that he needed to step up.
In the Calgary series, duly stipulated. Not against Dallas. He stepped up, in my opinion. I think you’re letting the series result color your opinion too much. If the Sharks went on to win the series, how key would the game 5 tying goal have been? We’d be talking about it for years.
then a soft, one-dimensional player like Campbell…
I just don’t understand why you think Campbell is soft. He’s 5’11, 195. He just doesn’t have enough size to blow people up. Are all defenseman of that size soft? Dan Boyle? Tomas Kaberle? In fact, Campbell’s biggest highlight of his career was his hit on B.J. Umberger. In the playoffs.
But that’s what desperate teams do. So I guess it’s a done deal. Campbell will be a Shark for $36 mil over 6 years. Ugh
Certainly not. I’m on the record as saying I think Campbell won’t sign with the Sharks before July 1. There are plenty of teams more desperate for a guy like Campbell than the Sharks, with more money. I have no doubt DW will bow out of the sweepstakes if the price goes up too high.
Curious to me how quickly someone can go from savior to cursed.
I’ve said for some time that Campbell is a regular season guy, and the Sharks are a regular season team. That said, you need regular season guys to get you to the post season. And as Mike stated, there will always be a premium paid for offense. So, yes, where ever Campbell signs, it’ll likely be an overpayment compared to his playoff performances.
Couple questions: How much influence will the coach have in the decision to keep Campbell? And why limit PP QB to defensemen?
The first question is directed at the “win now with what we’ve got” strategy. If Ron stays, then how much of a roster overhaul can be expected? If you bring someone new in (Quenneville’s now accepting offers) then do you go with a larger turnover?
For me, if RW stays, then you front-load whatever offer you give Campbell. Win next year, or cut your losses. I’d say the Campbell offer should be 4 years, $22.5mil, with 7.5 next year.
The second question is about PP philosophy/strategy – also coach driven. Dallas has done quite well with Modano as a QB. Can this sort of set up be achieved with the current players? If not, why not target someone like Demitra in the offseason?
As for the Mike’s question about UFAs that are half the prospect as Campbell, I’d say Streit is better than half of Campbell. But if you really want a “prospect” you’re going to have to dip into the RFA market. Give up some draft picks and go get Byfugelin or Green!
The problem I have with Brian Campbell is that his offensive production (specifically during the playoffs) did not offset his defensive shortcomings. Did he play a lot of minutes yet maintain a respectable +/-? Yes. But I think the +/- stat is slightly misleading when Nabby’s playing like a Veniza trophy winner behind him.
I think what’s most telling and alarming over the past three seasons is the trend of Campbell’s ineffectiveness on the power play during the playoffs. We all know Campbell will never be a defensive defenseman. So what’s his value add? Quarterbacking the power play. You may want to have a barf bag in hand when you read this next little tidbit. The Sharks were 8 for 56 on the power play during the playoffs this year. That’s a 14% success rate, which isn’t very successful in my opinion. Surely, it’s not all Campbell’s fault. However, the main reason he was brought to San Jose was to quarterback the power play.
Look at Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz of the Red Sox. They are paid big dollars to rake, pure and simple. Not just in the regular season, but also in the playoffs. They may have their shortcomings defensively, but nobody cares as long as they get extra base hits and drive in runs. In last year’s playoffs, Big Papi had a .370 batting average and a .696 slugging percentage while Manny had a .348 batting average and a .652 slugging percentage.
Bottom line – you can’t pay a guy top dollar if his primary skill/purpose/value does offset his deficiencies when it counts the most.