There are two good opposing arguments in the Nabby vs. Brodeur debate.  PJ from Sharkspage titled his post “Evgeni Nabokov finished second to Martin Brodeur in Vezina voting, rest of NHL scratches its collective head”.  And on the other side, James Mirtles calls his “Nabokov Didn’t Deserve the Vezina.”

The crux of the argument comes down to save percentage.  Brodeur clearly had a better save percentage than Nabby, .920 to .910.  And as several have pointed out, Brodeur faced about 200 more shots than Nabby did over the course of the season.  If you look at other stats, they all seem to favor Nabby- wins, shutouts, goals against.  But, the critics argue, those stats are team-based stats, unlike save percentage.  The fact that the Sharks were a very good team helped Nabby.

One thing I’ll admit to- save percentage is more of an individual stat than, say, wins.  The real question is, how much more?  To illustrate that point, if the Sharks took a shot every time they got inside the red line (and got it on goal), they’d rack up amazing shot totals, probably 40 to 50 a game.  Those 80-footers are easy pickings for pretty much any goalie that’s played hockey more than a month.  So the opposing goalie would look like Patrick Roy on the juice, with a .970 save percentage or more.  Vezina time!

Nabby faced 23.7 shots per 60 minutes of playing time, Brodeur 27.0.  That’s about 230 shots over the course of a season.  Let’s take a wild-assed guess, and estimate those extra 3.3 shots per game were not great shots, shots maybe from the point, shots that could have been blocked.  The Sharks blocked 1045 shots, the Devils 921.  If you say Nabby would have made those extra 230 saves, then his save percentage jumps to .920 as well.

It’s a woulda-shoulda-coulda argument, but to all of those that think save percentage is the be-all, end-all goalie stat, you’re sorely mistaken.  It might be one of the best we have now, but it’s far from perfect.   Myself?  I don’t particularly agree with either of PJ or Mirtle.  In fact (and you might want to sit down for this), I actually agree with E.J. Hradek.  It’s a damn close call.  And I probably would have voted for Brodeur.

To all those Sharks fans in despair, I say, it ain’t all that bad.  I think it’s actually better to have a player that (arguably) should have won the trophy than one that actually won it.  It’ll save us a few million bucks down the line when Nabby’s contract is up.

Okay, here’s part four of my attempt of trying to remodel the Sharks in the offseason. Remember, this is not what I think is going to happen – just what I might do if I was in DW’s shoes….My shot at playing Doug Wilson and roster moves has the Sharks sitting at 44.9M (roughly) with three major roster holes to address. I propose as GM that the Sharks should go out and get a new, younger enforcer to play on the 4th line, a veteran defensemen that can bring leadership and allowing a rookie defensemen a shot at the 6th spot instead of signing a veteran plug like Semenov.

THE ENFORCER
Darcy Hordichuk – Daniel Carcillo, who led the NHL in penalty minutes last season, said his toughest fight was against Hordichuk. Outside of Nashville, he isn’t well known, but he’s young and a total bad ass. Health has been a concern, but when able to play 74 games for Nashville in 2005-06, Hordichuk proved he can be more than just a goon, notching 13 points, a +9 and 163 PIM. I think he’s exactly what the Sharks need and, at 27 years old, fits the young core as well.
Signed@ 2 years, 1.6M. Sharks now at 45.7M.

THE VETERAN DEFENSEMEN – There are a few options here. I’ll break them down and then pick my favorite.

Jason Smith – Mike and I both think that Jason Smith could do wonders for the Sharks. He was voted by his peers in ESPN Magazine the “toughest hockey player” in the NHL, willing to play hurt and do whatever it takes to get on the ice. Smith dished out 142 hits and blocked 204 shots, while playing 18 minutes a game. He would instantly be the leader on the Sharks in both those categories, passing the Sharks leading shot blocker, Ehrhoff with 108 blocked, by a landslide. What else can I say to convince you? He’s 34, true. He reportedly has bad shoulder, true. He still managed 77 games last season and a full 82 the year before. Looking at what Aaron Ward got from Boston (2 years/5M), Smith will likely get more, but not much. I’d guess 3 years/9M.

Bred Hedican – Family ties might lure him back to the Bay Area with his wife Kristi Yamaguchi. I could see Hedican willing to play one more year and take a run at the Cup with the Sharks, playing a leadership role and operating on the powerplay with Brian Campbell. While he’s not overly physical, he can still block a shot (108 last season) and he led all Hurricane defensemen in ice time with 19 minutes per game. At age 38, he could fit nicely into the Sharks plans for a year. He might sign for 1 year/2.5M.

Mike Commodore – Mike and I advocated for Commodore to be acquired at the deadline and then he was dealt that same day to Ottawa. Go figure. He didn’t exactly perform well in a Senators uni (minus 9 and two points), but he did jump on the Ottawa Titanic right as it was sinking. His lackluster finish might have only dropped his price and he is still young at 28 with several good years of hard hitting hockey ahead of him. I think a contract similar to Ward’s is reasonable. 4 years/10M.

Bryce Salvador – This guy might got a little lost in the shuffle with some higher profile names on the market. Salvador can hit and thrives on being a defensive defensemen. He logs 20 minutes a game and has been around the block a little at age 31. While this wouldn’t be a big splash, Salvador would be nice to add to a core that right now needs a little toughness. Could probably be had for 2 years/5M, since he doesn’t bring any offense and has been injury prone year after year, only playing 64 games last season.

Brooks Orpik – Here’s a bit of a wild card. He’s 28 years old, he was born in San Francisco – might he want to parlay his Stanley Cup success into a homecoming to the Bay Area? He’s going to be a hot commodity on the UFA market, certainly one of the most fashionable. He might get Scott Hannan money and if Doug Wilson wanted to take a run and offer a long term deal to bring home a local boy, could 5 years/25M fill a major need for the Sharks? He’s certainly an upgrade over Ehrhoff, who is being asked to do the same things Orpik would.

My suggestion: I would say make a pitch for Orpik and hope the price is really more in the 4M range – if it gets too high, and I imagine it would, I would go straight to Jason Smith at 3 years, 9M. You have to look at what a player like this does for your team, see the effect CF Aaron Rowand has had on a talentless San Francisco Giants team this season. He demands hustle and hard work every night – and so does Jason Smith. I think the Flyers are fools to let him walk, but if they do, DW should snap him up. This puts the Sharks at 48.7M.

THE 6TH DEFENSEMEN
This is where I think the Sharks should let a young player without NHL experience have a shot at contributing for 10-12 minutes/night. Who could this be? Derek Joslin, who has solid offensive instincts but lacks true NHL size. Dan Spang, who has been a bit of a bust as a 2nd round pick in 2002 and his currently an RFA after two years in the AHL. Minor league tough guy Brennan Evans, could he earn a roster spot with toughness? How about Tom Walsh, another college defensemen, who had a good year with 36 points in Worcester. Or, could Ty Wishart get a shot to stick with the Sharks and learn on the job, paired with Jason Smith.

My suggestion: Let Derek Joslin have a shot at sticking with the big club and see what he’s got to offer. He’s under contract for one more year at 516,000. If Wishart excels in the AHL, then bring him up midseason and have Joslin on the bench as a scratch with some experience now. Sharks now at 49.2M

Okay now I’m done with the Sharks roster. Here’s how it would at 49.2M (roughly).

Michalek-Thornton-Cheechoo
Marleau-Pavelski-Setoguchi
Upshall-Mitchell-Clowe
Hordichuk-Cavanagh-J.R.

Rivet-Jason Smith-Murray-Campbell-Vlasic-Murray-Joslin/Wishart

Nabby and Boucher in net.

This doesn’t include bench players, which I think is very difficult to predict. What did I accomplish here? I kept the puck moving defensemen needs for McLellan to succeed on the PP, I gave the Sharks the toughest NHL defensemen who backs down to no one, we got a young enforcer in Hordichuk and a scrappy, 3rd line forward in Upshall. We kept heart and soul J.R. and Boucher in net and allowed a few rookies in Cavanagh, Joslin and Wishart the chance to contribute. We’ll see how any of this plays out in the coming weeks, it should be exciting and we should expect there to be some moves for sure. GO SHARKS!

Now in easy-to-read-bulleted format, made in chronological order, based on the IM conversation grier and I had during the ceremony:

• Adam Graves should have treated himself and bought a new tooth for the show. And gotten a tux not made of pleather.
• Jason Blake looks bad, it’s almost as if he had cancer or something. Oh, whoops. Too harsh? How about the fact that he cried like Mike Schmidt?
• When they asked the kid wearing the Sharks jersey what his favorite team was, and he didn’t say the Sharks, I wanted to kill somebody.
• If I had to pick between Datsyuk’s unintelligible acceptance speeches or Sally Fields’ “You like me! You really like me!” speech, I think I’d go with Fields.
• grier thought it was weak that Boudreau won because he didn’t coach the whole season, but my position remains that looking like Mickey Rooney trumps little faults like that.
• When Ron McLean took that fake cell phone call , grier IM’d, “It’s Kevin Lowe with an offer sheet.” Much funnier than whatever crap McLean then said. And thank God that whole cell-phone-call-during-the-awards-presentation thing hasn’t been done before.
• We all agreed Kane was going to win the Calder, but his speech was the BEST. Especially when he implied that all of his teammates want to have sex with his sisters.
• What can you say about the Gordie Howe lifetime achievement award? I heard that already existed. It’s called the “Hall of Fame”. Tie: $1.99. Shirt: 3.50 at Old Navy. Suit: $32 at Goodwill. Stiches and dentist bills: $354,765 800 goals: priceless
• When they did the split screen thing for the Norris, wasn’t it great how they cut half of Phaneuf’s face off so they could get Elisha Cuthbert fully in the frame? Smart choice, CBC producers. And they had to go back to them during Lidstrom’s speech.
• I bet $5 that Broduer would win, and I’m eager to collect. People like SV% more than other stats, except when they don’t.
• AO, yawn. I think he was living out his nightmare of standing in front of a room of people in his underwear- he looked that uncomfortable.

There’s just something about how Doug Wilson and Todd McLellan looked together during the press conference. This looks like a good match – McLellan brings the qualities that so many of us were hoping for in a new coach. I like that he’s young, he’s a proven winner on every level, he comes highly recommended from the best in Scotty Bowman and he is looking to inject the Sharks with a new attitude – which this team desperately needs. We’ve all loathed the Sharks power play under Wilson, the non movement and static nature of Joe on the boards looking to make the perfect pass. Those days are surely done. We might actually see McLellan use a big body like Clowe similarly to how he used Holmstrom in Detroit – or even put Thunder Joe himself in front of the net.

What most impressed me during the press conference was the statement by Doug Wilson that McLellan called the Sharks the morning after he had just won the Stanley Cup with one thing on his mind, “When can I get to San Jose to interview for the job?”. He wanted this job. He wanted to be here. E.J. Hradek discussed this morning on NHL Live that he heard Doug Wilson called McLellan at the airport on Tuesday after they spent two days together and asked him to postpone his trip to interview for Atlanta. The fact that McLellan did just that – throwing away any chance that Atlanta would interview him after doing that – also shows how much he wanted to be there.

One thing that was pointed out in the Mercury News today is that we often forget that DW did not hire Ron Wilson, he inherited him. In the end, this is his first chance to get a coach that completely melds with the roster he has assembled since 2003. This goes back to teamwork, working together with a partner in a coach that is on the same page as you across the board. McLellan and Doug Wilson seem to have this understanding already, and that could be a major piece in the Sharks taking the next step we fans are all waiting for.

On a side note, you have to believe that the hiring of McLellan means that Brian Campbell isn’t going anywhere. Getting a powerplay specialist coach who is used to having Rafalski, Schneider and Lidstrom on the point and then not giving him the roster to operate with would have been discouraging for McLellan, I’m sure. This topic must have come up during their meetings. There’s no point in having a high tempo, puck possession coach when you don’t have the quarterback to start the break. This gives even more hope that Brian Campbell isn’t going anywhere and a deal could be struck after the draft when the Sharks clear the cap room needed to make the deal.

I’ve got a good feeling. It’s a solid way to officially start the offseason in San Jose.

I admit, if you asked me before this post-season to name a Detroit assistant coach, I wouldn’t have been able to tell you about Todd McLellan. I do remember Drew Remenda dropping TM’s name a few times during a broadcast or on Shark Byte. Actually, if you asked me to name any NHL assitant head coaches, I think my over/under would be around 5. Hunter, Zetz, Tocchet, Lewis, Sullivan, Granato (until recently) …. uhhh… Joe Kocur? No wait, he’s in the league office.

You see what I’m getting at- assistant coaches operate in relative obscurity. They have their sphere of influence, the power play, the defensive lines, whatever it may be, but the head coach is out front, and takes the hit for any mistakes or breakdowns. I’ve never once heard a coach throw an assistant under the bus. I’m not implying that TM is not capable of handling the pressure and media scrutiny an NHL head coaching job brings, but I don’t doubt it will be a new and sometimes surprising experience.

On the contrary, when I review TM’s resume, the one word that pops to mind is ‘ambitious’. Minor league head coach in his early 30s. NHL assistant in his late 30s. And now, at 40, his first ‘administration’. His been angling for a job like this for years, and no doubt he’s thought about it often. I don’t think there is a more qualified candidate that didn’t have head coaching experience. For a team that is close to the brink of a Stanley Cup championship, I think I would have liked to have had a coach that had been there before, or at least had NHL bench boss time under his belt. But DW likes to go a bit off the path, and I admire him for it. He’s forgotten more about hockey than I’ll ever know. I appreciate his desire to avoid a “retread” and get a guy that’s young and enthusiastic. But it’s a bit of a risky move. If TM fails quickly, then both of their jobs are on the line, and DW knows it.

I hope he’s ready. I hope that pressure of coaching a contender is offset by the relatively mild SJ press corps. I hope that the success he enjoyed in Detroit is contagious. As Vince Lombardi said, “Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.” I hope he can maintain the Sharks winning habit in the regular season and break the bad habit of losing in the playoffs.

I’m excited.

Pollak is reporting that Todd McLellan will be announced as the new head coach of the Sharks tomorrow.   I guess this takes Doug Wilson’s admiration (he practically wore an “I LOVE THE RED WINGS” T-shirt at the State of the Sharks) to a new level.  Not that I think it’s a bad idea.  I’m just a little grumpy that so much flattery is thrown Detroit’s way.

McLellan reportedly ran the power play and offensive lines for Detroit, so I think we all can anticipate an improvement in those areas.  It will be interesting to see who the assistants will be, and if the Sharks will finally get a goalie coach.

My life sucks right now. I’m laid up after having tendon surgery on my ankle, so my days are filled with watching NHL Live on the NHL Network, playing NHL 08, and wearing out my Blockbuster card. So, it should be no surprise to anyone that I saw the live Ron Wilson press conference this morning on TV, and he made an effort to charm the Canadian media. The coverage I saw appeared to go well, with Ron showering high praise on Vesa Toskala as an equal to Nabby, stating that he would “flip a coin to see who was going to play each night” and also that he knows Pavel Kubina was almost a Shark last year, and that he could quite possibly have been the missing piece San Jose needed on the blueline, and if the Sharks had acquired Kubina, “I might not be sitting here right now”, Wilson said. Interesting comments – a slight backhanded slap to Brian Campbell and Kyle McLaren (who the Sharks would have traded in that deal). Ron made no guarantees about the playoff future of the Leafs, but was quick to point out the immediate turn around the Flyers had last season, going from worst to the Eastern Conf. finals.

The rumor mill continues to swirl about who the next coach of the Sharks will be. An Ottawa sports blogger has gone so far as to declare Bob Hartley as their new coach, so if you want to believe him – remove Hartley from the list. So who does this leave that we have heard was not just being considered, but has actually been interviewed.

Joel Quenneville – If it was going to be him, it would have happened by now. Some reports have Joel Q. miffed over money offered, but I just have a hard believing it ever got that far. He doesn’t fit the description of what Doug Wilson says he’s looking for. Isn’t Joel Q. just a less successful version of Ron Wilson?

Todd McLellan – This makes sense from the standpoint that DW loves the Red Wings, want to model the Sharks in their style so bringing in their top assistant would do the trick. The fact that there has been no announcement means that DW was likely waiting to talk to McLellan after the Stanley Cup finals. He has reportedly also interviewed in Atlanta.

John Tortorella – Some call him the front runner. Some say he’s a terrible fit. I think he’s a proven winner with all the traits that DW described that he’s looking for…plus he would likely bring assistant coach, Mike Sullivan, with him – my original pick for head coach, but clearly he isn’t a candidate.

Mike Milbury – Was he interviewed? DW acknowledged they spoke at the Cup finals. He destroyed the Islanders as a GM, trading away promising player after player. I can’t see him working out as a coach after running a team, too many cooks in the kitchen – especially one that has burned the meatloaf as many times at Milbury. Please no.

Kevin Dineen – Rumor has it that DW asked permission from the Ducks to interview Dineen, an underrated player and successful AHL coach. He could be the dark horse in all of this and has been linked to several other NHL gigs.

Peter DeBoer – a new name now linked to San Jose, he was discussed at length on NHL Live this morning by EJ Hradek. Hradek felt it would be a big mistake, that a Junior coach would not be ready to assume a team with aspirations of taking the next step such as San Jose, but he confirmed that DeBoer was in the mix, from what he had heard.

That’s it. The main players from the rumors and reports I have read. It appears Pat Burns and Pat Quinn aren’t in the mix for any of these gigs. They are too high profile to go unnoticed. I am going to say that by this time next week, we will know who it is. Doug Wilson won’t wait much longer, especially if he’s after a guy who might be desired by another NHL team as well. As for a prediction, it’s so hard to know. If we are going to pay attention to any of the clues he has dropped at State of the Sharks, it could very well be McLellan. Either way, we’ll know soon – especially with the LA Kings firing Crawford today, the race for the best available coaches is officially on.

Who do you think it will be?

After a little detour, let’s get back to reality and dealing with the tasks at hand.

Part three of my turn playing “If I Was Doug Wilson” is centered around this tricky business of what to do with our own restricted free agents. Will some rouge GM offer big money to RFA’s like Edmonton did last year with Penner (hit) and Vanek (miss)? Could Doug Wilson be forced into overpaying for one of his precious home grown talents? It’s possible…but I doubt DW will even let them hit the open market. Here’s what my plan of attack would be and then a summary of my current roster.

CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF – Some call him the most talented Sharks defensemen, I call him the most frustrating. Sure – he has an impressive skill set and we saw him attempt to transform his game from what he thought he was (power play quarterback) to what he is (defensive defensemen with some wheels). Yet – His mental lapses in his own zone at key times and frustrating give aways just make keeping him a less desireable option. I think Ehrhoff is a perfect example of where the Sharks need to do better – with two young studs in the wings (Wishart and Petrecki), holding on to Ehrhoff just “because” doesn’t serve the team’s goal of Stanley Cup. I think he has high value in the trade market to several NHL teams and Ehrhoff will bring a similar game to a guy like Rozsival without breaking a GM’s bank – I imagine he would get 2.5M in his next deal. I would trade Ehrhoff to a team in need of a young D-man, perhaps sending in exchange for a young forward RFA. Might the Flyers be interested for one of their young forwards?

Prediction: Traded for a young impact player, perhaps Scottie Upshall in Philly – 1.3M next season. Sharks now at 39.7M

JOE PAVELSKI – I think he is the most important RFA to get locked up right away – he could peak some interest around the league. Little Joe is a key member of the Sharks present and future, and he proved how valuable he is down the stretch scoring huge goals and fighting until the end. Pavs is only 24 and the Sharks 2nd line center for years to come. He’s a gamer and should only improve his totals, a guy with 60 point potential. Doug Wilson isn’t going to let him get away. I originally thought 5 years/18M would be the price, but after seeing Carolina snag Patrick Eaves for 3 years/4.2M, this sets a lower bar for keeping Pavs. Career stats are in line but Pavs get the nod for good health and more points per game, but just barely.

Eaves 168 NHL games 39 goals 37 assists 76 points +6
Pavelski 128 NHL games 33 goals 35 assists 68 points +5

Prediction: Signed for 4 years/10M, putting the Sharks now at 42.2M.

RYANE CLOWE – Clowe owes the Sharks. They stood by him during his DUI and his major injury and I hope he is mature enough to recognize that. Clowe is an up and coming player, but he doesn’t have the resume that Penner had last year when Edmonton stole him from the Ducks – so I’m not concerned about some team making a crazy offer sheet for Clowe given all the factors (DUI and major knee injury). Clowe should be a team guy and he will get rewarded down the line if his play continues to improve, if not by the Sharks by someone else. His payday will come further down the road.

Prediction: I would offer 2 year/4M, putting the Sharks now at 44.2M.

MARCEL GOC – I think his tenure is also done in San Jose. Goc probably has some value still and a team might be willing to give a late round pick or prospect for him. He wasn’t able to stay out of RW’s doghouse long enough to cash in on what several people thought was his chance to snag a spot on the 2nd line. Torrey Mitchell has passed him on the depth chart and the Sharks have players signed for cheaper in their system (TJ Fox) who can do the same things Goc does. He will be blogging from somewhere else next year.

Prediction: Dealt before July 1st for a non NHL ready mid level prospect.

The other RFA’s, like Tom Cavanagh, Lukas Kaspar and Mike Iggulden, should draw one year qualifying offers and be given the chance to win a roster spot in camp. Kaspar has been underwhelming at the AHL level, only notching 41 points last year. DW might be ready to cut ties, but LW depth is an issue for the Sharks, so Kaspar gets one more shot. Iggulden was an AHL All Star last year, racking up 66 points, but what role does he fill on the big club? His game, from what I know, isn’t that of 4th line checking center. He could get traded during camp. Cavanagh is the one who could crack the roster next year. He appears to play more a checking line role and could replace Plihal and Goc, if DW thinks he’s ready. I think he sticks – he’s the type of guy you won’t mind getting scratched and providing depth.

Prediction: Let’s assume one of these guys, Cavanagh, is on the roster with a salary of 0.7M. This brings the Sharks salary total to 44.9M before delving into the UFA and trade market. Here is what my roster would look like.

Thornton-Michalek-Cheech
Marleau-Pavs-Seto
Clowe-TBA-Upshall
JR-Mitchell-Cavanagh

Rivet-Campbell-Vlasic-Murray-TBA-TBA

OUT THE DOOR: McLaren, Ehrhoff, The Rizz, Grier, Goc, Plihal, Semenov and Carle

So it looks like the Sharks need two defensemen and a 3rd/4th line center. I’m ready to address that in the UFA, trade market and from within the Sharks own system/prospects. It will likely require the Sharks spending a little bit above their comfort level – will they do it? I think they have to.

David Pollak is reporting a rumor that has Marleau and an unspecified player going to Columbus for the #6 overall pick and Nikolai Zherdev. First of all, the unspecified player is the gating item, but if he’s yet unspecified, that means he’s probably not a top-line player. The most worrisome names in that group would be Clowe or Pavelski. For either of those two, I say no deal. But if that name is Ehrhoff, Carle, Grier, or McLaren, I say bring it.

Why? Two big reasons. One, the Sharks finally get Marleau’s (and maybe sombody else’s) hefty contract of the books, potentially freeing up room to sign Brian Campbell or other free agents. An additional benefit would be the ability to give the C to a player that is more suited to the role. Two, the Sharks get a young scorer in Zherdev (one more year at $3.25M, then restricted free agency) who can put points on the board. As Pollak pointed out, he would have been the second leading scorer on the Sharks. That would give the Sharks three potential thirty goal scorers with Michalek and Cheech.

In addition to Zherdev, the Sharks would get the #6 overall pick in what most hockey people consider a very deep draft. If the cards fall right, we might be able to get a guy like Nikita Filatov (Hockey News has him projected at #4) . Or, more likely, a guy like Colin Wilson or Kyle Beech (described by one scout as “a 6-3 Sean Avery”).

Can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs, Sharks fans. This trade may be just what the cook ordered- a pure scorer and the flexibility to sign some free agents. Plus a top-flight prospect to boot.