Is it just me, or did the Sharks steal one last night?  I usually don’t like to bring up my own hockey games, mostly because I’m like Happy Gilmore without the slap shot or skating ability (is that net regulation size or what?), but there is an admittedly thin parallel here.   My last rec league game was against a team with several players that were far beyond the average skill in our league, who dominated most of the game.  We manage to get a 1st period goal, and we hold onto the lead as long as we could, facing about a billion scoring chances against.  That’s unfortunately where the paths diverge.  Unlike the Sharks last night, we take penalties late in the game, give up the tying goal with about 5 minutes left, and lose in OT.

But I digress.  The Sharks were mostly outplayed last night, and if not for the rule everyone loves to hate- delay of game- I think 2 points would have been wishful thinking.  Not that I think the Sharks don’t deserve any credit; they were playing with a ton of guys out of the lineup, and managed to scrape two goals out of only 17 shots.  Basically, I think the Sharks managed to escape because of two reasons:

1. They stayed out of the box.  The Sharks took only three penalties all game, and the first one was an offsetting minor.  With all the pressure Calgary was bringing, the Sharks showed good discipline in not taking those hooking/holding calls that so often accompany having the puck in your zone all night.
2. They are continuing to kick major ass in the faceoff circle.  31-23 this game, for 57.4%.  Maybe 57.4% doesn’t sound like a lot, but a team with that percentage all year would be leading the league by a big margin.  Pavs in particular was an amazing 17-9 last night.  He’s a non-chess-playing Marcel Goc.

Further discussion about all this and more will be in the podcast released tomorrow.  Feel free to email us if you have anything you want us to talk about.

Hundreds of Sharks fans probably did a double take this morning looking at the sports page when checking the standings. Islanders 2 Red Wings 0. WHAT? Thank you Hockey Gods!

After tonight, this whole “games in hand” business will be done. The Sharks and Red Wings will be on an even playing field, both teams will have seven games left to go. San Jose should be two points ahead after tonight against Phoenix, who have dropped five straight home games – but it’s hard to know who will actually be in the line-up tonight for San Jose. I’m expecting Rob Blake to be back tonight. UPDATE: HE IS NOT PLAYING TONIGHT, PER DAVID POLLAK, but not much has been said about Cheechoo’s health status….which makes me slightly nervous that he might be out longer than we expect. There will be no Ryane Clowe tonight, although that ten day time period first reported by David Pollak runs out by Monday’s game in Calgary, so I guess we can assume Clowe will return sometime next week either vs. the Flames or when the Sharks visit Edmonton.

Jamie McGinn has been more than holding his own in the absence of Clowe/Grier/Everyone else. He is making a very strong case to be in the starting 12 for Todd McLellan when the first round of the playoffs starts. His hustle and scoring ability will make the coaches seriously consider if he should take a slot from Shelley, Plihal or Lemieux when they get healthy in the first round. I like that he’s making it interesting.

After seeing what happened to Detroit last night, our Sharks need to be fully aware it could happen to them tonight. I think they will be aware of the “Islanders” factor and want revenge for losing to Phoenix on a cheap penalty at the end of the game last time they met. Sharks win in what I hope will be a run away victory.

So last post I (sort of) took it easy on Semenov, because he had a career game against Colorado.  I don’t hate the person (really!) but sometimes his mistakes make me crazy.  And last night, I had me some crazy.  In the middle of the first, he passed the puck directly to Martin Havlat behind the net, who walked right out front and left it for Andrew Ladd, who scored.  Thanks to the Chicago scorer who was chewing on a bratwurst, Semenov didn’t get ‘credit’ for a giveaway, and Havlat didn’t get credit for a takeaway.  Good work, Oprah lover.

Somehow, against Chicago, the Sharks find a way to score.  With almost an even dozen players out, the Sharks get two goals from Seto, and goals from McGinn, Vlasic, and Jumbo.  Problem is, Semenov played over 15 minutes (-1) and Vesce, Cavanaugh, and Staubitz all played over 10.  Not that McLellan really had a choice in the matter.  Like the guys said on the telecast, if you got a million guys out, you might as well play who you got, instead of putting Boyle and Joe out there for 40 minutes each.

But to their credit, the Sharks still persevered, and managed to tie it in the 3rd on a herculean effort by Joe Thornton to drive to the net.  And in case you didn’t notice, he didn’t bull his way around some scrub like  Niklas Hjalmarsson (who?)- that’s was Brent Seabrook Duncan Keith, as in, many-people-think-he-should-be-a-Norris-finalist Duncan Keith.  I’m sure I’m only about the thousandth person to say this, but Joe, booby, please do that more often.

And in case, you’re feeling a little down about the Sharks losing in overtime, just think of this this way, as grier recently put in an IM conversation with me: the Hawks at full strength couldn’t beat the Sharks without Marleau, Blake,  Grier, and Goc.  I’m happy for the point.

Oh, and this week’s podcast is here.  I’m happy to remind everybody here, but make sure to subscribe if you haven’t already.  So much easier.

The Sharks may be stricken with injuries, but they are still managing to win games.  After a tough Phoenix loss, and a possible management talking-to, they managed to come back and win the next three games.  The dudes talk about all that, and try to predict the 7th and 8th seeds in this still hotly-contested conference.  And check out the new podcast artwork!

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Don’t answer that.  Yesterday, with Clowe, Goc, Lemieux, Grier, Blake, Plihal, Roenick, Huskins, and Mitchell all out of the lineup, Cheechoo gets an arguable game misconduct call, and the Sharks have to play the rest of the game with 11 forwards.  Three of whom played most of the year in Worchester.  And that made the rest of the lines a complete shambles, with Marleau again centering the third line for a while, McGinn getting the call to play beside Joe Thornton, and Ryan Vesce and Travis Moen getting power play time.  Shift chart here.

By the way, Vesce’s power play efficiency is pretty great- he’s on the ice for 200 goals per 60 minutes.

I’ll say here what I did on the radio show last night- having so many players out is definitely not a good thing, but if you were to put a happy face on it, it would be that the Sharks can explore their depth for the playoffs.  Some say you need 8 or 9 defensemen and at least an extra line of forwards for an extended playoff run, and the Sharks are now in a position to evaluate that.

Speaking of 7th or 8th defensemen, Semenov certainly had a great game last night.  I was going to make a joke here about Obama’s comment on Jay Leno and how his staff’s reaction to bowling a 146 is comparable to the Sharks’ reaction to Semenov making 1st star, but I think I’ll take it easy on the big guy.  He deserves some props.

I deserve it. I’ve taken some heat for some bad predictions since the All-Star break. Much like the Sharks, I’ve been scrapping around, trying to find my groove. My Semenov jokes have been up and down. I’ve lost several posts due to injury (nasty carpal tunnel in my blogging shoulder). After a closed door meeting, Mike sent me down to Worcester to get my head back on straight. So, now I’m back and ready to hit the ground running with a new set of predictions starting today.

The Sharks are going to beat Dallas this afternoon. The Stars are way too beat up to give San Jose a true run for their money today at home. According to the Dallas Stars coverage at DallasNews.com, Brad Richards was back on the ice at practice and is “probable” for today’s game. Most notably missing from practice were Mike Ribeiro and James Neal, who are also banged up. So….even with Richards returning, I don’t think it’s enough for Dallas. They have dropped three in a row on the road and the Sharks should be keyed in on getting revenge for the 4-1 loss at the beginning of the month. I liked how the Sharks played on Thursday. The game was their style, they outshot the Preds and Rinne kept the game from being more like a 4-2 result in regulation. San Jose had more of a wide open, run and gun look to them that we remember from their fantastic start of the season, bombing shots from the point and crashing the net. While this led to several odd-man rushes for the Preds (another thing we remember from early in the season) this is the style the Sharks excelled with pre-slump and it was good to see it back in action. Look for more of the same and a solid Sharks victory today.

OTHER NOTES
Travis Moen will likely look for the perfect chance to thank Steve Ott for shoving his thumb into his eye socket. This incident happened in one of Moen’s last games with the Ducks….just keep your “eyes” open for this, it could be Moen’s shining moment to display the grit he hasn’t flashed yet in teal.

Brad Staubitz is going to be so excited about his beating of Tootoo that he will look for a fight in the first period. Possible dance partner is a repeat performance with Krys Barch.

I’m liking Jamie McGinn more and more every game. This kid is a lock to be regular player on the 2009-10 San Jose Sharks and a possible TRIPLE M checking line of McGinn, Mitchell and Moen is likely as I think the Sharks will part ways with my namesake, Grier, in the offseason and focus on keeping the younger more physical Moen.

I am going to watch the Worcester Sharks online this afternoon and do my best to follow their quest to make the Calder Cup playoffs. Currently, they are three points out of a playoff spot and a game with the Devils AHL squad today (currently right behind Worcester) will have major playoff implications. With only 12 games left and their top scorer now on the Sharks fourth line (Ryan Vesce) it is an uphill climb for Worcester. I’ll try and keep you posted.

GO SHARKS!

Man, we’re sucking as far as predictions go.  Grier has been miserable at it lately (sorry man, you have) and I started out a nice string of them last night with a big goose egg.  Not that that the Sharks played great.  Again they had an embarrassing stretch where they let in two quick ones, including a shorty.  But they continued to press during the scoreless second and third periods, ending up with a healthy advantage on the shot counter (why do people say shot clock?  That’s basketball).

Cheech was again the magic man in the shootout, with a really nice little delay and fake, finishing with a deft backhand.  Too bad he couldn’t convert on an open chance in the third with about 6 minutes left.  Nabby came up big in the shootout, which was nice to see.   I think during the first year of so after the shootout was instituted, Nabby was the worse NHL goaltender in terms of shootout wins and save percentage.

But I want to digress for a while about the Norris trophy, something Jeremy asked about in our latest podcast, and about which there’s a comment thread over at the DOH site.  I want to move it over here so I can expand on my thoughts, and open it up more to comments.  To recap, Jeremy said Mark Streit of the Islanders should be the Norris winner this year, with Chara and Boyle being the other finalists, and grier brought up the point on the show that Streit isn’t near their leaders in short handed ice time.

I confirmed that at behindthenet.ca.  It’s a little tough with the Isles because they’ve had so many people in and out of the lineup, but with a fairly lenient games-played criterion, Streit is behind Martinek, Sutton, Gervais, and Witt in 4-on-5 TOI/60.  To me and grier at least, if you’re not a go-to guy shorthanded on your own team, you can’t be in the discussion about best defensemen in the league.  I’ll be charitable and say Streit and Mike Green are on the bubble in that category since there have been so many defensive injuries on their teams.  The guys I said would probably supplant Boyle as Norris finalists, Lidstrom/Rafalski, are 1st and 4th in SH TOI/60 respectively.  Dan Boyle is 3rd behind Blake and Vlasic.

Zdeno Chara, for his all-around play and obvious physical advantages (let’s be honest, being 6’9 makes you look more impressive in almost everything you do), and Mike Green, because of his awesome offensive numbers this year, will definitely be finalists.

Another defensive metric I like to use, especially for defensemen, is even-strength goals allowed per 60 minutes of ice time, or EVGA/60.  This adjusts for players like Chara and Lidstrom that are 6th and 15th in the NHL in ice time per game.  Likewise, you could do EVG/60, the offensive side of the same stat.   I’m getting into a lot of stats, I think it’s time for a chart (alphabetical order):

It certainly should be mentioned that EVGA/60 and EVG/60 are very influenced by the quality of the team, which means that Boyle, Chara, Lidstrom, and Rafalski have an advantage here, and Streit a clear disadvantage.  And I used SHTOI/60 Rank instead of raw time, because different teams have different schemes for shorthanded play- some teams really cycle through their players a lot, and some lean heavily on a few.

So do you agree with me?  Is Boyle going to be a Norris finalist or not?  Do you have finalists not on this list?

So grier is sometimes the glass-half-full guy, and I’m sometimes the glass-half-empty guy.  We got some news today that Clowe will be out for a week, and I’m feeling quite pessimistic about the Sharks chances for the next little while.  For those keeping track, that’s Lemieux, JR, Grier, Ehrhoff, Plihal, and now Clowe that’s out, not counting Torrey Mitchell.  The way Luko has been playing lately, we’re in a tougher spot now than when Luko and Goc were out.

At least according to Mirtle and my quick back-of-the-envelope calculations, the Sharks aren’t all that bad in terms of games lost to injury, but the vast majority of games lost have come since January 1.  It’d be interesting to know how the Sharks compare in that time span.

With Detroit three points ahead, and with a minimum of injuries (Lilja on IR and Holmstrom a little banged up), the Red Wings clearly have the inside track to the number one seed at this point.  Both conferences are so tight it’ll be impossible to predict first round matchups until the last week of the season, but if the season ended right now, we’d be facing our first round opponent tonight- the Predators.

I know we’re all hoping the 90-minute closed-door meeting the Sharks had yesterday will refocus the team, but I’m going to do some glass-full-of-crap predicting right here.  Sharks lose tonight and Saturday against Dallas, then squeak one out against Colorado.  Neither Seto nor Cheechoo on their new lines have a goal in either of the upcoming two games.

Check out our latest podcast featuring ESPN’s very own, E.J. Hradek, as our guest..

I don’t usually do this – play the blame game for why the Sharks lost a game. Sure, injuries have been a factor, but even their current roster should be able to the handle borderline playoff teams that have been on the schedule the past two weeks. So what makes last nights loss to Phoenix any different.

Those $%&*-ing REFS!!! That’s what.

The Sharks laid a giant steamer in the first period. They got jumped by a team that I was surprised had any life in them at all. The game began to turn after Daniel Winnik slammed Dan Boyle’s head into the glass. Even though it was more of a stripping than a fight, I love that Rob Blake attempted to confront Winnik for what should have been a boarding call. Two more fighting majors later, plus what looked like what might be a fighting major between Michalek and Upshall that went uncalled, the Sharks dominated and outshot the Coyotes 26-11 the rest of the way. Joe Thornton looked emotional and determined. Michalek was everywhere. I have no doubt that the Sharks would have won the game if those #$*%-ing REFS hadn’t decided to take away what would have been an extremely emotional come back from the Pacific Division champs.

Drew Remenda was right. The refs let everything go in the 3rd period. For a game that had 42 penalty minutes in the first two periods, there were ZERO in the 3rd period until that extremely lame interference call on Cheech. That’s the call you’re gonna make? With the game on the line? UNREAL. (Insert profanity here). AND!!! The worst part was when Rob Blake was holding Shane Doen like his Prom date and there was no call on that.

So am I upset about last night? Hell yes, I am – but not for the same reasons that many other Sharks fans appear to be. I liked that they battled back. The Sharks are not dead in the water. They just got screwed on what would have been a great comeback that we’d all be talking about today – and if the Sharks finish behind the Red Wings by one point…..we can look back at this game.

Okay. I’m done.

The main even this week is Mike and Doug scoring an interview with a premier hockey analyst, EJ Hradek of ESPN and the NHL Network.  The dudes ask EJ about the general hockey opinion of some different Sharks players, and get some perspective on the Sharks situation in the standings and postseason.

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