The Heatley Saga Continues
July 3rd, 2009, 5:11 pm
Generally, I regard the writings of David Pollak, the Sharks beat writer, as close to gospel as you can get. And as he had written several times in the recent past, Dany (What’s Up With the Spelling) Heatley coming to the Sharks wasn’t going to happen. But in his most recent post, he admits the possibility of Heatley to the Sharks may not be as remote now as it once was. The $4M payment to Heatley on July 1 means that any potential trade partners wouldn’t have to shell out, making the prospect that much more attractive.
The flip side is the cap situation. As Mr. Plank has amply described at Fear the Fin, the Sharks are once again near the cap ceiling. This essentially means that any deal for Heatley would have to be at least cap neutral. The Sens have more players signed at approximately $55M, so they might be able to take a million or two, but certainly not more than that. And given that the Sharks still have players to sign in order to get to a proper active roster figure, that means only top salary players make sense to go the other way. Trading Ehrhoff, Vlasic, and Lukowich might be about the same cap hit as Heatley, but then the Sharks would need to sign two more players for the already paltry $2-3M the Sharks have left under the cap.
I’m burying the lead here- this means the Sharks have to be offering a deal that includes Patrick Marleau or Evgeni Nabokov. Considering the Sens got Pascal Leclaire at the deadline and the Sharks don’t have an obvious #1 to step in this year, I think it’s highly likely that Marleau is the one. Marleau, Ehrhoff, and a pick maybe?
Not that I’m supporting such a proposal. Heatley clearly is damaged goods, and the fact that he bitched about wanting to be traded, then didn’t waive his NMC to go to the Oilers certainly doesn’t make him look good. Even the most charitable explanation- that the Rangers and Sharks made decent proposals that he preferred – still makes him look like a punk. Funny thing is, this is one of the very few times we’ve seen a opposing player actively favor the Sharks (Dan Boyle avoiding Atlanta doesn’t count).
However, the question remains, do the Sharks really need this brand of headache? 40-50 goals, especially if Joe is there setting him up, is a difficult thing to pass up. But I still say no. Too many questions and too much money in this economic climate is asking for trouble.
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I still refuse to believe that DW’s way to fix the Sharks is bringing in a talented distraction. So not his style, so much so that it would make DW look desperate by bringing Heater in.
Maybe I am totally naive and a moron, but the Sharks being up against the cap means nothing right now as far as DW’s plan this offseason. The changes and new faces are still upcoming.
And yes…I’m still looking for a new name.
I totally agree guys. Heatley is NOT what we need. I think he likes SJ not for being a playoff team but rather that the market is a “low key” media area.
Doug, how about “oh Danny boy-le” for a new name. Or how about “I (heart) Seminov”… Maybe not…
Still hoping for Beauchemin…
Doug- I think the concern is that getting comparable value in a trade is contingent upon DW getting pretty creative. With McGinn called up (a likely move, I think) and Greiss/The Monster signed for $.800, that leaves us without four forwards and roughly zero dollars in cap space. Not the best bargaining power to say the least.
As for Heatley, couldn’t agree more Dudes.
Side note: Ryan Smyth traded to LA for Quincy, Preissing, and a fifth rounder. No word on whether he cried when informed.
I think after the way he rejected the trade to edmonton he has really screwed himself. The guy is going to need to just fade from the media for a while since I can’t see any fan base that would be overly thrilled to get him with the way he has handled things. That said I would not forsake the sharks for grabbing him but I’d be very nervus going forward especially depending on what we would give up for him if he turns around and burns us next year.
With the Clowe signing its going to be interesting to see what DW does from here on, I like the signing Clowe will only get better and is one of the few players I’d be annoyed to not see in Teal next year.
In my opinion shelling out that much for Heatley would be a huge mistake. I don’t think this is the time to give up our younger assets for a splashy free agent with seeming team chemistry problems. Like Doug, I don’t believe DW is up to such a deal.
But then again…I have been somewhat baffled by his moves so far, it’s a little unlcear what he’s doing exactly. The Huskins contract probably the biggest weird thing
agreed. couldnt have put it better myself mike
I agree that the Huskins deal looks odd right now but it’s the type of signing that should make sense a few moves down the road. Happy Fourth to all (and the anniversary of the Boyle trade).
Well, I think we all agree that the current team chemistry isn’t working come playoff time. I’m not necessarily advocating a big trade for Heatley, but I wouldn’t be opposed to having someone in the room who will shake things up a bit. I think DW is just waiting for the Monster to decide, then he’ll strike.
Happy 4th. And if this doesn’t show that we live in a great country, I don’t know what does.
well doesn’t Heatley have a reputation for being more of the same of what we already have (lots of skill with no grit and work ethic?)
I think assuming that a Heatley deal has to be cap neutral & 1 for 1 is not necessarily accurate. A Milchalek/Ehrhoff/Lukowich deal would probably get it done for Heatley. If the Sharks then turn around and deal Cheechoo and/or Nabokov for simply picks or prospects, then it all comes out gravy in the end (that’s $3-$5mil of extra cap room for the 3rd/4th liners). Gustavsson obviously plays a role here, if he signs Nabby is out regardless of the talk about a Nabby/Monster tandem from the FO.
Is Heatley worth it? Man, I dunno. Stats-wise, hell yeah. Chemistry-wise? Who knows, maybe coming to Cali is exactly what a guy like him needs to blossom (if a 50 goal scorer can blossom any more). I think I’m on the fence about Heatley coming over, but wouldn’t we look a lot like the Red Wings of last year? Isn’t that a good thing?
Ruben,
While your scenario has its merits, think about the result if it plays out as you describe. The Sharks would then have 5 D under contract, and probably would need to bring up Moore or Joslin. They’d be down one more forward, bringing the total to 9 assuming they sign Staubitz and Mitchell. The cap room they got would be spent on one or two ok forwards, or they’d have to bring up some young guys. I’m not sure how this would be an improvement on the ice, and it would increase payroll volatility.
I think you have to do what you can to bring in elite level talent. Looking strictly at on-ice performance, there is no question that Heatley is a level above Marleau. People can point to Marleau’s career best season last year as an equal to what was a “down” year for Heatley. But over their careers, and importantly, since the lockout, Heatley is a notch above. To pair someone like that with Thornton would be a real asset. Also, it makes more sense for the team, given the decision to play Marleau at wing instead of centre. Why not bring in an actual left winger to play with Thornton?
Of course, the off-ice stuff is driving a lot of the hesitation. Aside from salary cap issues, etc. But players of this talent level do not become available unless off-ice issues are raised. Had the media uncovered the Sharks’ interest in Thornton prior to his arrival in San Jose, I feel like the media angle would have been all over his “choker” label, his penchant for taking nights off in Boston, inability to win faceoffs consistently, and his inability to lead as a captain. All of these issues sound familiar when discussing Marleau and Heatley this off-season. It’s partially true, but mostly meme or the standard media story right now.
If Wilson has decided to keep Thornton and continue to build the team around him — which he apparently has — then it makes sense to give him a premium sniper. No more carrying young guys hoping to get them to another level — like Michalek — and no more average guys getting career years — see Cheechoo. Let’s get Thornton a legitimate scoring winger to play with and see how that works out.
Dany Heatley was considered a cornerstone for Team Canada in the past, as recently as last year. Two years ago, the Canadian media was calling him the new power forward prototype — a Ryan Smyth with puck skills and skating. The media was fawning all over him during his All-star game debut. They continued to champion him during his first few seasons in Ottawa. Obviously, the way he’s gone about this trade demand and backing out of his contract has been uninviting. However, the best talent in San Jose’s history has been in Joe Thornton and Dan Boyle. We saw what a genuine 1st line/franchise centre was (for the most part) and we raved about Boyle last year, the first No. 1 defenceman we’ve ever had. Heatley would be that kind of talent on Thornton’s wing.
People will point to last season as the start of a decline. I don’t agree with that. It’s one off-year, which can be explained by various factors. And frankly, if he potted 50 goals again, he’s not on the market. Now, getting him under the cap is a different question altogether.
The podcast mocked the Canadiens for hanging onto Chris Higgins too long. I laughed because I thought of Cheechoo. Just lopping his $3M off the cap for a draft pick — 2nd or 3rd round — in effort to bring in a guy like Heatley would be welcome, or heck, to create salary cap relief.
I have to agree with Adam. I for one think Heatley+Joslin+Vesce is better than Milan+Ehrhoff+Cheechoo. If it can be done w/out giving up Marleau, how do you pass that up?
As far as the future, I know this is going to be heresy, but if getting Dany Heatley costs the Sharks Joe Pavelski next summer, well too bad. I like Joe Pavelski. A lot. Probably my second favorite player on the team. But kid is barely good enough to get a look for team USA. Dany Heatley may be the top line winger for team Canada. I know young role players are important. I know Pavelski might be captain material. I know Heatley has maturity issues. But in two years Logan Couture has a decent chance of being Joe Pavelski. No one on the Sharks has a chance to be Dany Heatley.
Completely disagree with some of what’s being said. Is it really smart to sacrifice all of your second-tier talent (Ehrhoff, Michalek, Vlasic, Pavelski) for a really good top line short-term? The key to playoff success, as we saw this year, is spreading your scoring over multiple lines, NOT increasing the scoring potential of your top line. Besides, didn’t we already have the statistically best 1st line in the league?
Some of the moves suggested in these comments, in my opinion would leave us in a couple of years with average to below average AHL talent making up the majority of our team. I don’t see how getting rid of our younger homegrown players for a desperate shot at the Cup will make the team better.
I hear what Tomi is saying. But, not only does it take a supporting cast to win, it seemingly takes elite talent, too. I think what the Sharks have is too much second tier talent, and not enough top talent. Both second tier and top talent have failed them in the playoffs repeatedly.
For example, Nabokov is only a good goalie, not a great goalie. Marleau is a good, not a great player. He’s had what, 2 seasons in his career over a point per game? I understand that’s not the end-all, be-all metric for “elite” players, but it’s quick and dirty. Michalek, Cheechoo, Pavelski, Clowe… all these guys are okay, but are any of these guys even a point-per game players? Can any of these guys score 30+ goals? (Cheechoo, obviously, at some point did. Twice.) And, importantly, can any of these guys be that kind of guy consistently — not just a career year season? We keep waiting for their “breakout” years. Thornton is the best forward, but he has shown he can’t carry it alone. It’s not surprising when you think about the talent level he’s surrounded with. It was Switzerland, but wasn’t the breakthrough in Joe’s career when he played with Gagne and Nash during the lockout? Won MVP there, won MVP of the Worlds, followed by the Hart Trophy.
I think there’s a tendency to overrate our players. We have too many No. 3-4 defencemen and too many 2nd-3rd liners. We think the 2nd line guys can graduate to 1st line guys. In a salary cap environment, it seems like the best strategy is to have elite talent and then backfill as cheaply as possible the supporting cast.
Instead, SJ has built and spent all their money in the second tier. Murray and Huskins making a combined $4.2M and Vlasic and Ehrhoff making a combined $6M+ is crazy. I would much rather have a single $6M defenceman — legitimate talent/player and Huskins + Joslin/Moore. It just seems like SJ is spending too much money on the supporting cast. Shift some of that money around to upgrade. 2Bs don’t equal an A.
It’s funny that Doug Wilson used to quote from Moneyball, because he doesn’t seem to understand the idea of replacement value. I agree you can’t have just one stud line and one stud defenceman and minimum-salary AHL guys filling out the roster. But it’s not going to be that extreme, if we get Heatley. It’s a lot harder finding Heatley than another Pavelski, Ehrhoff, et al. Heatley has scored 180 goals in the past 4 seasons. That’s crazy.
i agree with most of that talk about that you do ahave way too many 3/4 defnse men that arn’t that good that are making way to much and then theres nabby. so sj can have a great season next year but you need a goalie to not let in 3-5 goals a game cause the scoring wont be the same this year as last year…
unless you get heatley
p.s. i give heatley props for not going to edmonton… he’s from calgary and we calgarians freaking hate edmonton.
That’s exactly what I was thinking, Adam. Fans constantly overrate their own players, and Pavelski/Murray/Nabby are really good examples of that for San Jose fans, me included.
And to me, it seems obvious that the Sharks are VERY good at drafting and developing those 2nd tier guys. If thats so, why waste money holding on to them? Go out and get what you can’t draft (offensive DMen, top tier goalscorers, pugilists), and let your farm do what it does best (chew out goalies, 2nd/3rd line centers, and soft but positionally sound Dmen). Just make sure it really IS top talent (not the Brian Campbell’s of the world) and you don’t overpay for it (a la Vinny Lecavalier).
I see where you guys are coming from, but in my mind it’s the second-tier guys who win you cups, and this team’s mentality to rely so heavily on its superstars has been a detriment to the playoff performances. The infamous powerplay has been a microcosm of it for the last few seasons: everyone stand still and hope Joe makes an amazing threaded pass. That mentality, deferring to the “superstars” has been a problem, from my perspective.I’m sure we overrate the players, but in some repsects I think that applies to Joe/Marleau as well
I think I change my mind every day on the Heatley issue. Today I’d be willing to give up Marleau for Heatley. I wonder if we could pick up others from Ottawa as well. Specifically, Ruutu. (he’s still on that team right?) We need a guy like that, and we may be able to work the player swap a little better with them if that’s the case.
I don’t know, it’s July 6th and nothing has happened yet for the Sharks, I’m trying to be patient, but this is getting unnerving.
Well with the Sens grabing Kovalev we may find out soon once and for all where Heatley will end up.