Interesting Note in Sharks/Heatley Saga
July 12th, 2009, 9:54 am
Since we’re still extremely starved for news (the reported Nichol signing hasn’t even materialized yet), I thought I’d share a bit of Heatley/Sharks trivia I hadn’t heard before – and a reason why these rumors might have some legs after all…
According to ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun, Sharks Assistant GM Wayne Thomas is a “good friend of the Heatley family”. The dots are slowly starting to connect here. If Thomas is vouching that Heatley is getting a bad rap in Ottawa, where the team has been severely mismanaged and he has dealt with four coaches in the last four years. While he’s gone about it all wrong, I can’t exactly blame him for wanting to get out of Dodge.
So – we’ve discussed at length the pros and cons of the Sharks trading for Heatley. Pro: the obvious, this guy can flat out play and might be one of the best snipers in the entire NHL. Check out where he ranks amongst the top post-lock out snipers.
Ovechkin 209
Kovalchuk 189
Heatley 180
Iginla 159
Hossa 151
Nash 105
It is hard not to salivate thinking about adding a guy with 50 goal talent to the best passer in the league. He is also a solid playoff performer, with 35 points in 34 career playoff games – including a run to the Cup in 2007. The cons: well, he’s demanded a trade for the 2nd time in his seven year NHL career and he carries a $7.5M cap hit until 2014.
Since we now have the “Wayne Thomas” connection, I don’t think I can discount the possibility of this being a reality anymore – BUT – I could see Doug Wilson trying to paint the Senators into a little bit of a corner, like what Don Waddell did to Brian Murray when he dealt Heatley to Ottawa in 2005. That deal included the more accomplished (and more expensive) Marian Hossa and veteran defensemen Greg DeVries. DeVries was making $2.3M at the time and Hossa was making $6M – Heatley was making $4.5M. So, what Waddell did was make the Senators give a top four d-man who went on to play the PK, PP and even strength minutes for the Thrashers in their playoff run and a very good player in Hossa.
Could Doug Wilson do the same to Murray here? Could he insist on the Senators (who are also in cap hell and actually 2M over the cap at this point) take on some Sharks “problem” players in the deal or insist that the Senators give another decent asset in the process, someone like say Anton Volchenkov? We can offer a winger signed long term, a puck moving defensemen and an underachieving sniper for a top ten player in the league and a really solid top four blueliner. Hell – ask the Sens to toss in a former Shark that has developed into a decent 4th liner in Shean Donovan (.6M) and the money is almost even.
To Ottawa: Michalek, Ehrhoff, Luko and Cheechoo (11.9M in cap hit)
To San Jose: Heatley, Donovan and Volchenkov (10.6M in cap hit)
You tell the Senators, “we don’t give a #$%& about your cap problems. Send down Luko if you want or make another trade – but if you want us to take Heatley, you’re going to have to give us Volcheknov (or Chris Phillips).”
This is the type of deal I could see Doug Wilson angling towards here. You have the Sens in a terrible spot – so make them part with a sweetener to take out their trash.
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I don’t know how eager Ottawa is to part with Volchenkov although if memory serves me correct his contract expires after this season.
Also Heatley signed that deal after he arrived in Ottawa I believe. Either way neat article.
Very interesting outlook on the situation. That’s why I love this blog.
I think we’ll have our answer next week. As we all know due to the salary situation trades have to be made to fill the roster, and I think we’ll see which way DW is going with the first trade. I hope it’s a big one and not the crap rumors flying around of Cheechoo to Islanders.
If I were Murray, I wouldn’t be eager to part with Volchenkov either but Murray’s track record with retaining his own free agent defensemen isn’t great. I only tossed this scenerio out because I believe Ottawa is at a major disadvantage and whoever they trade Heatley too is in the drivers seat and should not overpay.
And we continue to wait….
That would be Christmas in July, on par with getting Boyle. Even if DW had to throw in a high draft pick, if something like that is anywhere on the table he better jump on it.
Heatley-Thornton-Setoguchi
Clowe-Pavelski-Marleau
Would Joe Thornton be able to break 100 assists with Heatley and Seto on his wings? Would Heatley have 65+ goals playing with Thornton? And that second line has everything: speed, size, hands, two-way play.
It’s probably just a pipe dream, but there is nothing wrong with dreaming…
NHL 09 says Cheech, Michalek, and Ehrhoff get it done!
Maybe the organization should get Wilson out and bring in another GM with the first name Doug…
The top two lines would be ridiculous, but it still doesn’t address the need in the playoffs for the 3rd and 4th lines to chip in on occasion.
I guess the top two lines could carry the team throughout the season and 3rd and 4th liners can be picked up at the trade deadline. I know the Sens are in a terrible spot, but I don’t think DW is in a great spot either with the cap issues he’s facing. If he can pull something like this off, though, it would be incredible.
There is no way Ottawa would even consider moving Volchenkov – he is far and away their best defensive d-man and in no way comparable to Greg DeVries, Volchenkov is as good as they get (no offensive side tho). I can’t see them moving Philips either, which doesn’t leave much from the back end.
Remember the Sens owner is pissed he had to pay the 4 mil to Heater July 1, so they are looking to get that money back in any trade they make – a lost cause imo. Of course this is the same owner who signed off on that deal last year 😉
Unless there is a better forward/winger out there with a smaller contract who is available for less assets than Heatley, which of course there is not because the Sens are in such a bad position, then Doug Wilson has to jump on this.
Setoguchi (30+ goals to 40+ goal potential on JT’s line) – Thornton (potential to get back up to 125 points, maybe even more, next to Heatley) – Heatley (50+ goals to 65+, 70+ goal potential on JT’s line)
Then you add Ehrhoff – Boyle as your #1 defensive pair, two pure offensive defenseman, who can both skate very well, and Ehrhoff with the blistering shot, that’s a recipe for one of the best lines in the last decade. Sure, the lack a dangler, which will always cost them until they get one, which they likely never will, but still even just with good skating,speed, and a hard if not too accurate shot in Seto, and good skating and passing in Joe, and good skating, off the puck movement, and amazing shot in Heatley, they will still be much improved from last year. Still, to make that line all-world they would need someone like Havat or Hemsky to take Setoguchi’s place.
The Sens are under ZERO pressure to move Heatley.
If they don’t move him and he doesn’t report they get their money back and fix their cap issues.
By signing Kovy they’ve addressed his removal from the line-up.
If SJ wants Heatley they’ll be the ones bending over not the other way around. “Bad” dels have been on the table for weeks, and if the Sens dind’t bite before signing Kovy, or paying the 4M, they sure as hell aren’t going to do it now. The pressure is off the Sens now, they’re in the drivers seat.
p.s., it wasn’t Murray who made the Heatley/Hossa deal.
Clark –
That’s a nice thought, but why are they then still trying to move him?
Michalek (77GP, 57PTS), Cheechoo (66GP, 29PTS), Lukowich (58GP, 8PTS)
for
Heatley (82GP, 72PTS) and 1st or 2nd
Michalek and Cheechoo would make up for the offense lost and help the PP. Lukowich helps clear cap room, and the draft pick helps San Jose restock the coffers.
Edmonton allegedly offered Dustin Penner (78GP, 37PTS) , Andrew Cogliano (82GP, 38PTS), and Ladislav Smid (60GP, 11PTS). Looking at this again, if I was Doug Wilson I might ask for Heatley, a first and a second. The Sharks are giving up two legit scoring wingers and a solid 5th or 6th defensive defenseman. Not sure who said Ottawa is under no pressure to move him. That is flat out wrong.
I admit when I’m wrong. Brian Murray was the head coach and not GM – but I stand by my statement and agree with PJ that all the pressure is on Ottawa to unload Heatley or risk another distraction to what was a promising second half under Clouston.
Why would Heatley not show up for camp? He’s not looking to give back his 4 mil, so you can forget about that ever happening. Judging by his refusal to go to Edmonton I don’t think he is entirely opposed to playing for the Sens again. He just wants better options apparently.
The Sens need to do something to get out from their cap issues, which are much worse than the Sharks frankly. We still have assets we can clear via trade that will fit reasonably into most teams caps that don’t have an option on whether or not they want to move. Or we could just ship them to the minors. I’m pretty sure Heatley has an NMC, so the Sen’s can’t even waive him if they wanted to.
I agree with Clark – there is no pressure on the Sens. Sure they don’t want a distraction, but they have options. They could demote him to the minors. He could “sign” a deal in Europe. They might have Jeff Gilooli’s number and Heatley could end up on LTIR.
You have to question how badly he wants out of Ottawa if he declines to go to Edmonton. Once that happened, it took the pressure off the Sens because they can point to a legit deal, and say “we tried”.
I think getting Heatley to San Jose is going to take a 3rd team.
If the Sens were happy with Smid, Cogliano, and Penner, would Edmonton be happy with Michalek, Cheechoo, and Ehrhoff?
One issue with Wilson taking this “patient” approach is that moving forward, there will be fewer teams that have the cap space to allow him to dump salary, especially if he needs to first move salary to make a bigger deal like the prospective Heatley trade.
To that end, I think other teams have a lot of leverage against San Jose. For example, let’s say Wilson wants to dump Cheechoo’s $3M on the Islanders or Devils. Those teams know how screwed the Sharks cap situation is — look how many players they still need to sign with their available space. As a result, presumably, instead of just giving up a draft pick for Cheech, they might say, nah, we’re not going to stomach the whole $3M even though we can. We’re going to make you take back some salary — like a $1.5M guy they don’t really want. It’s the same picture that Doug posted re: Ottawa v San Jose, except San Jose is Ottawa in this case.
Maybe from a point production standpoint Michalek/Cheechoo/Lukowich (~$9M!) is a better deal than Edmonton’s package. But with Edmonton, Penner makes $4.25M, Cogliano is still on his entry level deal ($1.13M) and Smid’s entry level deal just expired (his cap hit was $886K). Cap space and young players whose production exceeds their cap hits are the most premium commodities under a salary cap structure. For this reason, guys like Michalek, Cheechoo, Lukowich, and to a certain extent Ehrhoff, have much less value in the trade market than we would figure. That’s how San Jose is screwed.
In order to get Heatley, they’re going to have to make a separate deal, first, to clear up some cap room. Ottawa is already over the cap, and for them, it’s a lot easier to get under the cap — they have a full roster of players, at least — than it is for San Jose to fill a roster under their cap constraints. No way Ottawa takes on more salary in a San Jose deal. I would bet that Ottawa would make San Jose take on Jason Smith — hence the need to pre-dump some salary before the actual trade, and the reason why Wilson is presumably having so much difficulty. It’s not worth it for Ottawa to lose the best player in the deal and take on more money. Then it’ll be a matter of Heatley accepting the Edmonton deal or playing in Ottawa. Ball is back in his court, really.
Finally some real news are out – the calendar was just released.
It can be a good thing for Sharks to start on the road. Colorado should be a win, but then we get a stab at the Ducks. I’m glad it’s so early. A win in Anaheim can do wonders to this team chemistry, especially since we play them twice before in the preseason. And it’ll be good to see how good the Kings will be.
Damn. I just looked at the rest of the schedule. 12 out of the first 17 games are on the road? Wow. WTF?
There won’t be any record setting starts this year, that’s for sure.
What a tough start. Well – this team will have some time to bond or dig a whole for itself.
15 out of the first 23 are on the road.
I’ve never seen a schedule this bad.
It gets better – 10 out of the last 15 games of the regular season are also on the road. Let’s hope we’ll be in a good position by then and not sliding like we did last year.
Movement!
http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=284754
Wow, um… Nichol. Sweet.
Also, it’s a tiny point, but Heatley has a NMC, not an NTC (according to NHLSCAP) so the Sens couldn’t even send him to the minors without his permission.
I’ll never understand why GM’s give players NMC’s. NTC’s are bad enough, but you take away any power you could conceivably have as a GM over a player with an NMC. The only possible thing you can do to them is bench them, but that’s a huge contract to have sitting in the press box because you’re bitter.
This is how I would shape the lines and d combinations for next season, although I might be in the minority thinking Boyle should be paired with Ehrhoff for an entire season. Also McGinn in a regular third line role is a gamble, but he has shown promise offensively.
Staubitz has the tools to be more than a 1 dimensional player, but how quickly he can become a responsible defensive forward remains to be seen. If the Sharks are taking a hard look at the supporting cast, then I think the same has to go for Shelley. The Sharks need another veteran 4th liner, use Shelley and Staubitz situationally.
So the question is, could the Sharks get under the cap by making one trade? Either Michalek, Cheechoo or Ehrhoff, and who would replace them? Couture needs a full season in the AHL in my opinion, maybe more. If SJ is one move away from a green light cap situation, it will be hard for opposing GMs to game them in a trade. Chimera for Ehrhoff is example 1. Last season McLaren was sent down for an entire season. It was definately a departure for a standup franchise, but it could be a possibility as well.
Marleau-Thornton-Setoguchi
Clowe-Pavelski-Michalek*
McGinn**-Mitchell-Cheechoo*
Shelley-Nichol-Staubitz**
Boyle-Ehrhoff*
Blake-Vlasic
Murray-Huskins
Lukowich*
Joslin
Nabokov-Greiss**
* possible trade candidate
** RFA
The lineup or the cap situation do not look like as much of a panic issue as many are making it out to be. That being said, Knuble, Neil, Lapierrere, Madden, Pahlsson, Samuelsson or Larose would have been a nice addition.
Woops, meant to put the RFA on Mitchell not McGinn.
totally off topic but… where the hell is JR?? And does the Nichol signing signal anything??
If JR does come back could he center the third line? or would he be extra ammo for most nights and sit as a healthy scratch? He isn’t gonna replace Mitchell, that is for sure!
It is clear that DW said it was totally JR’s choice to come back or not… with the cap the way it is you would have to think that there MUST be further moves to be able to pay Roenick if he does return…
I’m thinking he’s done…
My guess is that since JR hasn’t announced retirement yet, he’s waiting for DW to clear up cap space for another year. Otherwise, he’d just call it a career and move on without complicating issues for the Sharks.
I think he can play on 3rd or 4th line. Nichol is frequently injured, and JR is not expected to play every game anyway.
I need me some podcast.
I was out of town this week but have made my glorious return to San Jose today. Your wish shall be granted tomorrow.
Excellent 🙂
http://sharks.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=442902
What is your take on these moves? Do you think its possible that we could see any of them taking a regular roster spot?
According to fox sports Sharks Petrecki is at development camp and the Sharks are taking an extra look at him… Also Couture…
I might be playing this up too much but I wonder if we might see him slip into the lineup? I know we currenly have 7 D, but wonder if promoting Petrecki might give DW more trade options… I would guess that Ehrhoff and Lukowich are the best bets for a trade. Petrecki’s size and presence on the blue line is tempting especially with Murray.
Great topic for the podcast. We will discuss tomorrow!
We also signed a bunch of what appear to be AHL’ers. One looks like he could potentially be destined for the big club (another Nashville guy in Ortmeyer).
http://sharks.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=442902
I am thinking that this might be what is holding up DW from making further moves. They could be waiting to assess Petrecki and Couture… We might not see any trades until after development camp or even after training camp..?
I think Petrecki might have the best shot because of his size, grit and attitude which is reportedly much like Chris Pronger, nasty and moody. I like him already!
The scouting reports on Patrecki remind me a lot of Pronger’s defensive side. He doesn’t have nearly the offensive talents though, but I think he could contribute. I wonder if we see more of him or Joslin this year.
I’m thinking that DW will soon find himself faced against the cap, and will have to do what Brian Burke had to do last summer, put players on wavers. I won’t be surprised to see Chechoo waved, along with Shelley and perhaps even Murray.
According to Wyshynski, Sergei Zubov is on the market:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/Sergei-Zubov-Done-with-Dallas-hip-to-new-chall;_ylt=Ao1PYXQ.Cg22jaeqJYP9wzl7vLYF?urn=nhl,176977
Is he and his 5M+ salary next for DW (snark?) What does he sign for (wherever he ends up).
Zubov would have to take a considerable pay cut to offset his injury history over the last two years.
Last thing our salary cap mess needs right now is no. 8 defenseman in Zubov, who’ll probably make $3m next season.
It doesn’t play to Zubov’s advantage either that he’s only played 56 games over the last two years.
I know the cap is shot and we’re 7-deep in defencemen that make over $1.5MM, but assuming one or maybe two of these guys get traded, what about Mathieu Schneider? I think he’ll come pretty cheap — even cheaper than Huskins — on a one-year deal and he can still bring it on the PP.
17 points in 23 games for Montreal last year. Assuming Ehrhoff gets moved, Schneider would know how to run the point, gain the zone, and get his shot on net. Having experienced point men — Boyle, Blake, and Schneider — wouldn’t be too shabby. The guy is double-digits in goals every year.