NostraDoug and The Grier Is Gone UPDATED
August 12th, 2009, 8:31 pm
Some people have visions of the end of the world. Others see dead relatives and pass along comforting words from the afterlife. Me, I can predict the contract length of a Sharks prospect. A worthless talent you say? True – but when you got it, flaunt it. On this weeks podcast, we talked about the remaining Sharks RFA’s that are unsigned (Mitchell, Staubitz and Greiss) and I thought Doug Wilson might try and sign Greiss for two years, possibly setting himself up to have a reasonably priced starting netminder in 2010-11. Like Mike has said many a time, in order for a team to be successful, you have to have the right mix of high priced stars, role players, and young talent performing above their current salary level. If the Sharks struggle and Greiss is in the mix to be the starter in 2010-11, he could fit into that third category instead of DW overpaying for a veteran stop-gap. On the other hand, the deal is also good if Nabby wins a Vezina, the Sharks win a Cup and he signs a three year, 18M extension – the Sharks still have their back-up. Good stuff.
His entry level contract carried a .73M cap hit. I’m guessing his new deal is two years/1.8M for Greiss, with a .9M cap hit. As my grandpa would have said, a solid investment in your future.
As for Henrik Karlsson, the free agent Swedish goalie the Sharks signed today, no one seems to know much about him. Our friends at Sharkspage have reported that Karlsson will continue to play in Sweden this coming season, so it’s not like he’s competing with Greiss – this is just a “what if” signing for the future and another great trade chip. The Sharks are so stacked at goalie with Stalock, Greiss, Sexsmith, Sateri and now Karlsson – always been a calling card of this organization.
In an odd turn of events this morning, CapGeek.com is listing Greiss’ deal as two years/1.1M, so he is actually making 200k less than his entry level deal. Even stranger is that Karlsson is on a one year, 1.3M deal with $425k in additional potential bonuses….Could Karlsson be the actual back-up for Nabby? It is a two-way deal, so my understanding is he wouldn’t make the full 1.3M in Worcester, only if he is on the big club.
Mike Grier has taken his off angle shot back to the East coast. It’s a homecoming of sorts for Grier. He’s heading back to the fun and sun of beautiful Buffalo, NY – which is an oxymoron of sorts. Speaking of morons, Darcy Regier appears to have given Grier a one year, 1.2M contract.
Um, okay.
He’ll be a welcome addition to a non-playoff team that has been kept together for a second straight offseason. Darcy, what are you doin’ brother? How about mixing it up a little bit – all he’s done was sign Steve Montador to replace his top blueliner Spacek, who bolted for big dollars in Montreal. I understand that Doug Wilson might take some heat if he keeps most of this roster together after their huge postseason tumble, but Regier is being stubborn with a team that’s blown chunks for a second season in a row. At least Wilson has that President’s Trophy to lean on.
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I lived right beside Pacific Coliseum a couple of years ago and was fortunate enough to be present at every Memorial Cup game for the Vancouver Giants (subsequently the WHL Finals in which the Medicine Hat Tigers won was the best damn hockey of it all….Darren Helm vs. Lucic, Michael Repik vs. Tyler Ennis, Jon Blum vs. Kris Russell, Brett Festerling vs. Cam Barker, Sexsmith vs. Keetley – truly a match up for the ages.
My convoluted point is that Sexsmith is a very good talent but a PR nightmare.
Evander Kane (who played a small role in the Mem. Cup win for Van as a 15 year old!) has been available to the media and fans alike, so much so that I have even met him before he was drafted and what a great kid. Sexsmith is rarely available and the players guard his lack of presence after games. Even Coach Don Hay comes out to late and will shake your hand.
TWB, thanks for the anecdote, great stuff.
My question about Sexsmith- does being a goalie make a difference? Seems that goalies are usually moody and/or weird, and finding a talker like Brian Boucher is the exception and not the rule. Nabby isn’t exactly Frederick Douglass.
Dudes –
RE how Regeir is supposedly a moron and DW is supposedly a genius.. I made a resolution this summer. I’m not going into this season thinking the Sharks are last year’s President’s trophy winner and so forth. I’m going into this season thinking that Sharks are a team that lost more playoff games than any other team since the lockout and the team that dropped two in a row at home and 4 out of 6 games against the team that was just one loss away from making playoffs altogether. You may disagree with me, and it appears so will DW who keeps sitting on his hands thinking he already had a Cup contending team, but the team as it is now may make the playoffs, but that’s about it. Nichol is not going to be a difference maker that will propel us into the Cup final. Thornton is not going to be playing at a rate of 1.3 points a game in playoffs like Crosby, Malkin or Ovy when he’s playing next to Cheechoo, or Seto or whoever and Nabokov is still going to be the same Nabokov we’re used to. Michalek will be the old Michalek that fades in April and Error will continue slapping pucks into the stands and completely miss his defensive assignments.
With these low expectations, I don’t think I’ll be too disappointed next season.
Interesting note on the Heatley rumors. Lyle Spector from Fox says the problem is DW is not willing to part with “a top six forward”… I am assuming Michalek has been available this whole time and there were plenty of rumors about Clowe.
Doesn’t DW have to move a top six forward to get Heatley? Then we would have 8 top six forwards if you count cheechoo if somehow DW were to get Heatley without moving a top six….?
Spector who I normally consider reputable, seems to contradict what DW has said all along which is that everyone is available except Joe and Boyle.
I wonder if the big clue here is that Ottawa WANTS either say Michalek, Clowe, Seto, or Pavs to get the deal done.
I’d give up Michalek or Clowe.
Great post by Spector. As I’ve said before, I like DW’s hardline stance on this. If it means he doesn’t get Heatley, then he doesn’t get him – it’s on his terms. If he finally calls Murray’s bluff and terminates all talks, he’ll move to Plan B, C, D or E: whatever those are – but I have to believe he has thought that far down the line cause that’s the type of GM he is. I won’t mind if that plan involves the continued overhaul of our 3rd/4th line, the true achilles heel of this team.
I think the untouchable list reaches beyond Boyle and Thornton. I think it includes Pavs, Seto, Couture, Mitchell and Petrecki. In some ways, it includes Clowe as well because he is the only power forward we have. It would be shocking to see any of those players moved at this point.
My guess is that Wilson won’t part with Michalek in a deal for Heatley because he needs Michalek to trade in a separate deal for salary cap relief — should he bring on Heatley.
Ideally, he would trade Cheechoo for that purpose. Before the summer, it seemed like we could just trade Cheechoo for some draft picks to get cap relief. Even Jim Vandermeer was able to get Calgary relief this way. I think Wilson’s “patience” bit him on this because teams have much less cap room to absorb $3M as the summer goes on. He’s been injured for two years running; his production is way down; and, legit or not, the perception is that he’s a fluke.
Basically, Cheechoo is an “unknown” and he would be the top forward going back in the proposed deal for Heatley. At a $3M cap hit to boot. I don’t really blame Bryan Murray for simply refusing these deals as a result. A top prospect is also an “unknown,” but he isn’t going to cost you $6M over two years. Michalek might be a little more expensive, but he’s been a rock solid 25g/60pt guy for three years running, is still young, and carries the perception of potential. Since Wilson can’t get Cheechoo traded on his own, he’s trying to bury him in the Ottawa proposal. To bring in Heatley, SJ would probably have to lose both Cheechoo/Michalek anyway (in some fashion).
How about DW can’t trade Michalek because the rest of the GMs can also see what we all know – he’s a 60 points a season max, completely fades under pressure, and is signed for the next five years. I don’t know who in their right mind would want him going into next year when the future of salary cap is so uncertain.
We can say similar things about Cheechoo, who’s got two years left at $3/season and who can’t stay healthy or no longer score more than 20 goals.
We tend to way overvalue our players here in San Jose. I think DW has the same problem, and now he’s very desperate.
In case any of you are not yet aware, we only have 600k of cap space available, with 5 roster spots to fill, and most clubs set for next season and not wanting to trade. I’m very curious to see how DW is going to find a way out of that hole.
I agree that Wilson probably overrates his players. I think this is evidenced by some of the contract extensions he’s handed out, and also, by the performances of some of the players that he’s traded. For example, Steve Bernier, who still can’t crack 20 goals. This may be speculation, but it *feels* like he thinks all these other GMs are going to poach his players with an offer sheet. Huskins. Murray. Combined, those two are probably at least $2M overpaid. $2M in cap space would look pretty good right now.
I was just trying to say that as disappointing as Michalek has been, he has more trade value — whatever it is — than Cheechoo. With Michalek, you’re waiting/hoping for him to get even better. Maybe this doesn’t happen, but at the very least, he’s 25 goals and about 60 points (right now). With Cheechoo, you’re hoping he returns to some form that he hasn’t shown in at least 2 years.
From that standpoint, I don’t see why a team with cap space — presumably a young team like the Thrashers, Coyotes, or the Islanders — would take on Cheechoo. I could see them taking a flyer on Michalek, though. For example, Antropov signed for 4 years at $4.1M with Atlanta. Michalek is 4 years younger and has a better track record. And then Phoenix traded for Vrbata ($3M). There are fewer and fewer places to dump salary, which is where “patience” works against Wilson.
Dudes.
I have a question for you. I have heard you both talk about being unwilling to trade Pavelski. I am wondering what type of player are you guys expecting him to develop into. I don’t expect him to get much better than he is now, a good second line player. He is good all around but doesn’t really stand out in any one part of his game.
I think I am confused about why such an unwillingness to trade him in any deal and specifically for Heatley. Is the issue just the return for Heatley itself or just parting with Pavs? I personally gave seen nothing in him that makes me unwilling to trade him, unlike the clear expectations of guys like Seto, Couture, Mitchell, and Petrecki who all have clear abilities to be top guys. Pavs doesn’t have the speed, the size, or the hands or any of the stand out features that the others do.
I like Pavs and think he is a good player I just don’t ever see him becoming a top guy for the Sharks. I understand what Couture, Mitchell, Petrecki, and Seto are expected of and envisioned for in terms of roles with this team. It is less clear to me though when talking about Pavelski.
Tom,
A top-6 guy is a top guy in my view. He’s a guy that plays both PK and PP and is near the top on the team in minutes. To illustrate why I like Pavs let’s take a look-see at the 2nd line centers in the Pacific:
Ducks – Saku Kovu – 50 pts – $3.25M
Kings – Michal Hanzus – 42 pts – $4M
Stars – Mike Modano – 46 pts – $3.45M
Yotes – Matthew Lombardi – 46 pts – $1.8M
Sharks – Joe Pavelski – 59 pts – $1.6M
You still think Pavs doesn’t stand out? I hope you’ve been listening to the podcasts, but if you haven’t, I’ve talked quite a bit about having the right mix of players- highly paid veterans, fairly inexpensive role players, and players that play above their salary. Pavs is in the last category, and thus very valuable.
His value is good now and he plays beyond his salary level. Agreed.
In terms of developing young players though I don’t see his potential future value on the same level as the other players I listed. If Ottawa really wanted him and it is what it would take get Heatley, I would consider it.
I agree, Tom. Right now Pavs is exactly the type of player needed to be a championship contender: a top 6 guy making 1/3 of what his production warrants.
But when he gets that full market contract next year, what then? Is that the type of player you build a championship squad around? Maybe, maybe not. I don’t think its as clear cut as most Sharks fans seem to think it is. Unless he turns into an 80-85 point player during his next contract, I think he may just be the next Milan Michalek, a guy the Sharks will be trying to move 2 years into a 5yr/22mil deal so they can try to accommodate the next Brian Campbell or Dany Heatley.
I still stand by my previous comments about Pavelski. However, looks like I might have to eat a little humble pie on this one.
I’m hearing lots of buzz about making Joe Pavelski the next Sharks captain. Eklund and Wyshynski of Puck Daddy are both open in their support of Pavs as the next captain. Hmmmm.
I have similar concerns as Tom re: Pavs’ upside. He’s a good player and excellent value at his current contract, no doubt. But his top-end is still going to be less than a point-per-game, right? At best, 30G/70pts?
If he gets the C — which is now also alluded to as a possibility in SI and The Sporting News — then the Chris Drury transformation will be complete. Let’s just hope that Doug Wilson will be reasonable in the contract extension — where Pavs will have all the leverage, now with a potential C, a probable Team USA role, and taking a pretty team-friendly contract the last time around — and not give him a Drury-like contract.
What do people think is a fair contract for Pavs? I don’t want it such that we lose Marleau’s $6.3M (or Nabby’s $5.375M) to be gobbled mostly up by Pavs’ extension, for example. If SJ can tie him up at a $4.0-4.5M cap hit, I think that would be pretty fair. (Basically, taking Blake’s salary and adding it to his current cap hit.) But the way people talk about him, he sounds like he’s going to be in the $5M+ range.
Adam
Re Pavs and the Olympics. Do you really believe Pavs will make the team ahead of any of the following centers – Drury, Gomez, Stasny or Kesler? IMHO, very unlikely if the first four are healthy.
I think he has a pretty good shot at making the team in one of the checking/2-way roles. He can probably move to the wing pretty reasonably — like Kesler and Drury can as well — and I believe Ron Wilson will be a huge advocate for him. He’s doesn’t have the requisite Brian Burke size, but he’ll be surrounded by it.
The top-6 will likely come from: Kessel, Kane, Parise, Stastny, Ryan, and probably Gomez.
And I see a bottom-6 of: Backes, Booth, Brown, Kesler, Oshie, Pavs, Drury.
Just got a Twitter that DW is going to on with Ralph and Tom on KNBR 1050 at 5:30 tonight. I think it is his first time on since last season.
Hopefully he has something interesting to say. I know Ralph will ask him straight out if Dan Boyle will be the next captain.
Tom
He’s been on radio shows couple of times during this off season.
It’ll be same old DW – no rush making changes, we’re still pissed, I hate trade leaks, the team is not complete until February deadline blah blah blah.
Adam,
4-4.5 sounded a little high to me, I decided to find the 3 UFA centers immediately above and below Pavs in points:
Franzen – $3.9M
Weiss – $3.1M
Zajac – $3.8M
Gomez – $7.1M
Arnott – $4.5M
Jokinen – 5.2M
Interesting the three guys below Pavs make more money than the three above. Anyhoo, if the cap goes down next year, I’d say $3.5-4 sounds about right. More if he gets the captaincy.