So Who Sucks?
October 28th, 2009, 8:30 am
New podcast here. This week we dive into the various questions about the 2010-2011 Sharks, and all the uncertainty coming down the road. Marleau, Nabby, Seto, Pavs, Blake, Ortmeyer, Nichol, Staubitz, Shelley, Malhotra, and Vesce will all either restricted or unrestricted free agents. We try to look into the crystal ball and tell the future- who will be wearing a Sharks uni this time next year?
That’s an ongoing question, but the question of the day is the title of this post- “So Who Sucks?”. There have already been a number of ups and downs for this Sharks squad, with some obvious (?) winners, like Patrick Marleau, and some obvious not-so-winners, like Ryane Clowe. In times like these, I like to turn to behindthenet.ca, because Gabe Desjardins (who lives in the Bay Area, go figure) tabulates some statistics that I think are much more illuminating than your normal +/- and other things.
Here’s the page for the Sharks so far, sorted by Gabe’s RATING statistic, which is simply the difference between a team’s 5-on-5 +/- when that player is on the ice versus when they aren’t. This controls for the quality of the team- a very good ES (even strength) team like Boston had the #1 and #2 +/- guys in the league last year, but those two guys didn’t even have the best rating on their own team.
The thing about sports stats, and hockey stats even more so, is no one number tells the whole story. Look at the Sharks numbers so far this year. The highest rated player that’s played more than two games is Kent Huskins. But look at his quality of competition (QUALCOMP) and quality of teammates (QUALTEAM). The first number is low, and the next one is high. In fact, the only guy on the team that plays with better teammates is his partner, Jason Demers. Now we look at a guy like Vlasic, whom many have blasted so far this year, maybe for good reason. His rating is way down on the list (yet above Rob Blake), but his quality of competition is second on the team to only Thornton, and his quality of teammates is by far the worst. Huskins and Demers seem to be playing the most sheltered minutes on the team, and Vlasic is out there against the best, with the worst linemates.
So the question remains- who sucks? Is it possible that no one really sucks (yet)? Even Ryane Clowe, who couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, has a positive rating, a tough quality of competition, and a fairly low quality of teammates. He’s not providing the wind to said boat, but he’s not drilling holes in the hull either (on the ice for 8 ES goals for, 6 against). 12 games is still a very small sample size. Look at the numbers for all of last year- this seems right, doesn’t it? Dammit, I was kind of hoping I could point to somebody and say they suck. Hey, Jeff Finger, you suck!
Loading ...
Interesting topic, Mike. For me, it’s about expectations and whether a player passes the fans’ eye test. Given Vlasic’s and Clowe’s experience and sizable contracts, we expect more from them and both have been underwhelming so far. That’s why they’ve received a lot of the criticism. Huskins is obviously a back end d-man and Demers is a rookie. Of course they’re not going to be matched up against the highest quality of competition. Besides, those stats (as you said) don’t tell the whole story. I think we can agree that Patrick Marleau has been the team’s MVP so far and that both Heatley and Seto have played extremely well. Yet, Patty and Dany’s “ratings” are behind Jody Shelley and Benn Ferreiro. Are you kidding me?
It was nice to see Clowe help the Sharks win in the OT shootout (although I can’t believe the Kings weren’t prepared for the exact same move Clowe used in a shootout against them last year). Did anybody notice what Clowe said afterwards? In explaining the Sharks’ lackluster 1st period, Clowe said “it was to be expected after a long road trip… It was great that Nabby stepped up when the rest of the team wasn’t ready to play.” WTF? It’s as if Clowe and every other Shark are not only justifying their flat start but are OK with it. By the way Ryane, what’s your excuse for all of the slow starts during the entire roadie?
The above comment just reminds me of the previous post.
Rob Blake’s quote says it all -“We’ve been very average. We finished the road trip with a key win in Philadelphia. But can I say we’ve been real good? No. We haven’t been real bad, either. We’ve been in between, and we need to get better.”
Dudes,
just listened to the pod cast.
I would not trade Setoguchi, over Pavs, Clowe, or Vlassic. I would part with any of those three before Seto. Seto is a skilled speedy winger, and frankly those are hard to find. Frankly what does Vlassic bring that Demers isn’t right now? And Clowe…well time will tell. And I don’t understand the discussion of keeping Pavs and Marleau, long term. I have said it before, gone back and forth with people on this blog, I really don’t see Pavs long term draw with this team…? I think you keep Patty and Seto, trade Clowe, Pavs, and Vlassic long term.
And, I think the “long term” future goes on pause if the Sharks win a cup. If they win, they will, and should, try and bring back as many core guys as possible.
Tom,
I certainly would agree that Seto is the best player right now amongst those you mentioned. But similarly, you would be able to get the most value. No way you could get a #2 defenseman for any of those other guys. Trading any of those three would be foolish right now, because their value is depressed due to injury or poor play.
As far as Pavs goes, he’s a 60+ point centerman that can play both the PP and PK. That sort of guy doesn’t grow on trees, and the Sharks don’t have a guy in the system that will obviously take his place. Marleau is more effective on the wing, where he can stretch defenders and use his speed. As a center, he needs to curl back and support the play more in the defensive zone, making it tougher to spring him on a fast break.
So I’m also talking about in the off season or next year. The same context you and Doug were talking about in the pod cast.
That’s a very good answer for why to keep Pavs and Marleau. I definetely see your point there. But I would still trade Pavs over Seto for a similar return. Simply taking Clowe or Vlassic off the books though for picks would be tolerable if there is talent from Worster waiting to fill it’s spot. But I do understand trading talent for talent.
What about Petrecki? If he really turns into the type of player we all seem to think he can, won’t he fill that #2 spot? Or would he not be ready by next year or the next?
I know it’s only one game, but the thing I really didn’t like about the Thornton/Clowe/Heatley line was that it lacked speed. They were so deliberate bringing it through the neutral zone and trying to gain possession that it never put a whole lot of pressure on the Kings D.
When you add Seto to that line it truly turns into a “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” situation. His speed really opens up the ice for Joe and Heater, and we all know that if you give Joe any extra space he’ll make you pay.
I see your point that Seto has more trade value, but I think his value to that top line is too great to trade.
I also wouldn’t want to trade Pavelski, and I don’t know how much value Clowe and Vlasic have. Quite a pickle (pardon the pun).
On another note, even if Clowe hasn’t been scoring, how can they not have him in the top three for shootouts? That’s crazy. I know Heatley scored on his attempt, but I still don’t think the ends justified the means there.
In my opinion every shootout should be Marleau/Clowe/Pavelski (Boyle is fine while Pavelski is hurt).
Great to see Nabby stone the Kings so many times though.
I agree that putting Clowe on the top line slows everything down, which is probably a bad recipe for Joe since that’s his natural inclination to the point where McLellan has to talk about “playing with speed” in the media every two weeks to get him back on page. However, where Clowe conceivably helps that line is controlling the puck along the boards and cycling with Joe. It used to be that Joe was unstoppable along the boards, where he could hold off not one, but two defenders, until ice opened up for a forward. He really has trouble now even against one defenceman in holding onto the puck and cycling. He now seems to ose as many pucks this way as he does attempting cross ice passes. Also, Clowe used to be really good at retrieving pucks along the wall, which makes him a potentially good fit.
I think this is where the top line has been less successful over time, in that they used to spend the majority of their shifts in the offensive zone, below the circles, wearing teams down. That hardly happens anymore, but maybe my eyes are deceiving me. This to me has been their struggle with 5-on-5 scoring. Look at Joe’s 5-on-5 numbers in recent years compared to earlier. I think this is why most teams are going top line to top line against Thornton dating back to last year, even.
For this reason, despite their semi-success, I’d rather not see Seto on the top line with Heatley and Joe. Both Seto and Heatley need to work in the slot and between the circles, as opposed to below. Since Joe can’t cycle on his own anymore, he needs to work with another grinder (preferably with speed) while Heatley lies in wait for the pass.
Colorado is nothing without Anderson… he gets cold, they go down.
You know who DOESN’T SUCK right now? The Sharks! Solid game last night, boys! SOLID!!!
Dudes,
are you planning a “dudes on hockey” fantasy update or something?
Also, what happened to the fantasy team name contest?
You know who sucks? Joe Thornton… through a straw. That puck knocked out 3 teeth completely and broke 3 more.
God I love hockey.