The Sharks turned on a dime once in the past 10 days, ripping off a 4-game winning streak after a 6-game losing streak.  Now they’ve turned on a dime again with a terrible effort against the Stars.  Mike and Doug break it down, talk about the injuries to Thornton and Vlasic (and Clowe), and give an update on the playoff picture.

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This movie sucks!

Although the Sharks didn’t play, last night was a great night for San Jose.  The Hawks lost, 5 points behind with only one game in hand.  The Coyotes lost, Breezy giving up 4 goals on 29 shots. And the Wings won, which in our Convoluted Calculus of Counterparties™ is actually a good thing.  As loyal readers and listeners know, I want to avoid the Red Wings in the first round at all costs.  Seriously, if it meant the Sharks had to dump the last six games of the season, I might be able to work up an argument for that.  But as it happens, it’s not required.  The Winged Wheel is on fire.  They’ve won six straight, and are 11-1-1 in their last 13 games.

Detroit is now only one point behind Nashville.  Given they have three (!) more games against the Blue Jackets and one against Philly (plus one against Nashville), I’d say their chances are very good they end up the five seed.   My earlier prediction of the Sharks facing the Wings in the first round is getting dimmer by the day.  With Phoenix faltering just a bit, I’m hoping this gives the Sharks an easy path to the #1 seed, hopefully facing the reeling Avs in the first round.

Speaking of reeling, how ’bout them Hawks?  Their early season strategy of “who needs a decent goalie?  We’ll just give up 20 shots a game and win anyway” isn’t working out so hot lately.  Although they still lead the lead in shots allowed with 24.9, they’ve given up more than that in eight out of their last ten.  One of the games where they did better than their average, they lost.  To Columbus.  Niemi got most of those starts, so does this mean they will go back to Huet?  I’m sure Coach Q is just thrilled he has such a thoroughbred stable of goaltenders to choose from.

So the Sharks seem to be back in a good position, actually, a great one.  They have a bit of competition from below in Phoenix, whose trapping style could easily eat up some teams struggling for motivation late in the season.  They have Detroit on a run, destined for a seeding far from the Sharks’ first-round gun-sights.   And Chicago’s once-impenetrable armor is now looking like Swiss cheese.

It’s a great opportunity to continue the run tonight against Dallas, who are all but eliminated from postseason play.  No Modano means no Shark-killer.  I say the win streak continues.  Look for the podcast to be posted tonight sometime after the game.

Seems so long ago that the Sharks got crushed by the worst team in the NHL 5-1.  But it’s only been eight days.  I think Adrian Dater said it best (from Colorado’s perspective):

Here’s the problem: they didn’t win the game. And another: that wasn’t the real Sharks they played tonight. That was San Jose’s B Team. No Joe Thornton, no Evgeni Nabokov, no Rob Blake. First-line center, starting goalie, arguably the top D-man – not in the lineup.

Well, ok, maybe not.  Blake is ‘arguably’ the Sharks’ top D-man? Please.    But he was right in the first part- the Sharks were missing some key players, fought against a much better team than the Oilers and won.  Despite the sinking feeling that inevitably comes with Jumbo being out of the lineup, the fact that the Sharks can still pull off wins against playoff teams is very encouraging.  The latest news on Joe is that it might not be serious- tests are being done today (Pollak), and he’ll most likely be on the road trip.  If he sits out a few games, it’s not the end of the world.  It was particularly interesting to see how the Sharks would respond without an all-world passer in the lineup, and they responded exactly how I hoped they would- with gritty goals.

Despite my criticism for Todd McLellan this year about his (in my view) overplaying of Nabokov, one marked difference between this year and last is the care the coaching staff has taken with injured players.  I think the lesson was learned from last year’s playoffs when Marleau played the Ducks series with a fairly serious knee injury.  This is a situation I’m sure T-Mac does not want to replicate, and sitting Blake and Thornton is absolutely the right plan.  I hope he sits both of them an extra game or two just to be sure.  Blake could probably use the rest anyway, and we need Joe 100%.  It also makes the last games more interesting – I like to watch Couture mature (I’m a poet and I don’t even know it), and the Demers-Vlasic combo could be the #2 pairing next year.

In other news, it seems Cheechoo has been suspended two games for this hit (thanks for the link, Joel)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqOkt1x9WbE[/youtube]

While I admire Cheech’s ingenuity with the poolhall-type combination shot, it was a pretty dangerous play, and deserves to sit.

Not to say the Sharks couldn’t immediately fall into another slump starting Saturday in Vancouver, but the play over the last two games has shown to me real promise.  Less east-west drop passes and stickhandling, more north-south drives to the net and grit in the corners.  And although the win last night against Dallas was far from perfect, it’s the general approach to the game that seems the most encouraging.  Less fuss, more effort.  Clowe with a move on Robidas that looked like the dressing-down he gave Ehrhoff a week ago.  Seto going a thousand miles per hour and hitting everything possible.  Nabby challenging shooters.  Steve Ott playing like a cheap-ass.  Nice to see the world is back on its axis.

Certainly the biggest downside of last night’s game was Rob Blake’s early exit.  Sure, we’ve been on him quite a bit lately, but his play the last two games was on par with the best he’s had as a Shark.  Although I still would like to seem him get a couple of fewer minutes, especially since Vlasic is back, it’s hard to argue with his success the last two games.  The question is, can he keep it up?  If he’s a little banged up and needs to sit out a couple of games, that could be a blessing in disguise.  We can certainly use him battling in front of the net and getting the point shots on net like he’s been doing recently.  What we don’t need is him fatigued and looking a bit like the proverbial pylon.

Also nice to see the ice-time has settled out a little, defense-wise.  I was just looking at the Vancouver box score from last week, and Huskins had over 22 minutes of ice time to Wallin’s 14.  Very strange.  But last night, Wallin had 15:08, Huskins 14:18.  That’s more like it.  Although Boyle had almost 30 minutes, with a whopping 7:40 on the PP.  That’s three minutes more than anyone else.

Speaking of Wallin, thanks to Jeremy for creating this YouTube gem.  Make sure to comment and rate.  I’ve watched this at least 5 times already, and laughed out loud every time.  Well done, sir.  It’s no doubt the best video on YouTube that combines Wallin, techno, and food.  [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKkgOMrmiVw[/youtube]

The Dudes breathe a sigh of relief because the Sharks have finally ended their jarring 6-game losing streak. Mike and Doug talk about the ‘little things’ the Sharks did right in the game against Minnesota, and try and identify what went wrong during the precipitous slide. The Dudes also give a fantasy league update, take some listener email, and check in with some of the Sharks prospects in various amateur and minor leagues, many of whom are going to the playoffs.

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Now that the Sharks are firmly in WTF-land, it’s time to prognosticate on their postseason chances.  The Sharks, even as bad as they’ve been playing, are still (barring the craziest thing I’ve ever seen) assured a spot in the postseason.  The question for today is- how do teams fare when they have a major meltdown like this late in the season?  I’m going to define a meltdown as a losing streak of 5 games or more (or 3 games to end the season), and ‘late in the season’ I’ll define as March and April.  Roughly the last 6 weeks.  I’m only doing post-lockout, because before the lockout there were ties, and having a bunch of ties in the middle of a winless streak doesn’t seem like the same thing.  Let’s go to the chart:

Nine teams in four years was a little more than I was expecting.  Six of the nine lost in the first round, which sounds like a lot, but keep in mind 50% of the teams that make it to the playoffs lose in the first round.  That’s really only one team over a random distribution.  Five of the nine were the top four seed, which is basically random.  No 1- or 2-seeds, which I suppose is to be expected- it’s hard to retain the conference lead when you drop 5 or more games in a row late in the year.  The fact that none of the teams went to the finals is also easily within the bounds of random chance.

When I started this tedious process, I was expecting the overwhelming majority (if not all) of the teams to get smoked early in the playoffs, and that’s just not the case.  The two teams that went to the conference finals were four and five seeds, which is likely where the Sharks will end up.  On the flip side of the coin, the top two teams in seeding, the 2009 Devils and 2008 Wild, both lost in the first round.  There also seems to be little correlation between the lateness of the streak and the playoff outcome.  If the Sharks win either Tuesday or Thursday, they will be tied for 6th in ‘lateness’.

So what’s the conclusion?  Losing five games in a row in the last 6 weeks of the season is not significantly correlated to playoff disappointment.  Mostly because Sharks teams of recent years aren’t on this list.  Har!

But seriously, if the Sharks manage to right the ship a little bit this week, there’s not much reason to think they are automatically doomed.  However, if they lose the next ten, I’d say that’ll be unprecedented.

How much do you make? Less than a million? Let's fight!

A few days ago, Ryane Clowe had a rather unfortunate quote in a Pollak blog post.  That quote?

I told him I wasn’t going to fight him, that I’d fight Barch.  I probably should have fought him (Morrow), but I have a hard time fighting guys who are the top players on other teams. I don’t know.”

Really the only way to take this is, “I get my ass kicked in fights against great players, so I’ll try and save myself some embarrassment and fight Kris Barch instead.”  Although Krys Barch, in both of his fights against Clowe and Jay Leach had a perfectly placed grab hand (right in front of the opponent’s right shoulder), effectively taking the right hand away from both guys.  And as I mentioned on the podcast this week, neither elected to go to the left, like Brad Staubitz does.  Say what you will about Staubitz, but he’s the best pound-for-pound fighter on the team, and it’s not even close.  That being said, it certainly doesn’t make up for his consistency in taking idiotic penalties.

Unfortunately as a result, Clowe looks like a wuss, passing up an opportunity to put the Stars’ best player in the box for 5 minutes.  Not a whole lot of hay was made about this quote, though I did see a couple of comments in the thread, and Doug was pretty incensed about it.  I didn’t really give it much thought, until last night when I was trying to ignore the Sharks getting worked by Calgary.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BVRIXg5laU[/youtube]

I’m not sure if someone talked to Clowe about his aversion to fighting top players, but he made a statement, maybe one of the only high points in the Sharks’ collective game all night.  It was an active and entertaining scrap, with Clowe fighting one of the biggest stars in the game-  probably the best-fighting big star in the game to boot.  My little theory is Clowe was trying to redeem himself for running away from Morrow.  These two things have to be a little related, right?

I can’t endorse the sentiment Clowe expressed above, but I admire his balls for taking on Iginla.  You can handle yourself against top players just fine, big guy.  Don’t back away anymore.

Another game. Another Loss. Another win for the red hot Coytoes. Is it possible the Sharks might actually plummet to the #4 slot?

There are certainly more questions than answers right now surrounding the Sharks as they free fall down the stretch. Why has Jed Ortmeyer, who was such an important energy player in the first half of the season, completely fallen out of favor with the coaching staff? While it’s hard to notice Ortmeyer’s contributions on a nightly basis since he is really here to do the “little things”, the equivalent of an offensive linemen in football speak, has he really bombed out so badly that he should ride pine? If the Sharks want to give Logan Couture a really solid look before the playoffs to see if he can play a scoring 3rd line role, that’s fine by me – but is Staubitz really going to play in May? Shouldn’t he sit and Ortmeyer, who can actually kill a penalty, be in the lineup? Hard to say what’s going on in their minds right now…but there are other coaching decisions that many of us are continuing to question.

What about the Sharks clear win/loss advantage with Jason Demers in the line-up?  As many of you have pointed out in the comment thread, the Sharks are 30-9-7 with Demers manning the blueline and 13-8-3 without him. That’s a .652 win percentage in Demers’ favor and .541 without him on the ice. While Mike pointed out the Sharks are .500-ish without Vlasic, I think this stat absolutely should be noticed. While he’s not perfect and certainly has growing pains, the Sharks lack of commitment to Demers this season has been mildly troubling. So, who’d you rather in the playoffs? Kent Huskins, Stanley Cup winner and playoff vet, or rookie Jason Demers, much stronger talent and potential for a big play…

Rob Blake’s ice time. What gives? At a point where the Sharks should be tempering their best players ice time to get them ready for a deep playoff run – are they burning out Captain Blake with 20+ minutes night after night after night. He has been half the player he was last year – literally – with a difference of 45 points, +15 and 110 PIM’s to this year’s version of 21 points, +6 and 50 PIM’s. I’m still really concerned about his role going in the Cup playoffs – not to mention Hamburgers lack of a defined role on this team. He played 13 even strength minutes last night compared to Blake’s 17 even strength minutes and Huskins 20+ even strength minutes. Why did we get this guy again if he’s not going to play? Ewwwwww…

Bring back Demers. Play Couture extended minutes. Sit Leach and Staubitz. Give Wallin some of Blake’s even strength time. And stop doing a Ron Wilson impression and leave the lines alone. Do all these things and we’re back on track…cause I know everything.

Mike and Doug purposely try to avoid jumping on the Sharks with both feet after the recent rash of disappointing games, but nibble around the edges instead.  The Dudes talk about when they need to pick it up, how the post season might go now that Phoenix is within striking distance, and break down the recent Hockey News prospect ranking list.

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After reading this article, I marvel again at the ability of Doug Wilson to get anyone to take Jonathan Cheechoo and his contract, currently $3.5M per year, with another year left after this one.  That’s not to say I don’t feel bad for ol’ Cheech.  He seems as bewildered as anyone about his descent into mediocrity.  Actually, mediocrity would be a gift for him right now.  As someone that always carried himself with class, and would still be considered a fan favorite in San Jose, his dismal output in Ottawa (14 points in 61 games) is the only thing that matters in the NHL.  And even though his productivity has improved with the Binghamton Senators (9 points in 14 games), his defensive ability hasn’t (-7).  Looks like he’ll be getting bought out this off-season, which would give him *only* $1.16 million for the next two years.  Most likely he’ll never see money like that again.

Maybe he can pull a Rick Ankiel and come back as a goalie.  Either way, Cheech, good luck.