I like reading sports books, and I like reading economics-type books.  Which is why I was interested to read Sportscasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won.  Worst case, they’d have some interesting theories about sports with scarce or anecdotal data to back it up (the way some people criticize Malcom Gladwell’s work) and best case it would really shed light on some interesting sports conundrums.  So which is it?

Actually, the latter.  And in order to achieve it, the authors crunched a ton (is it tonne in Canada?) of data.  It’s not nearly as breezy as a Gladwell read, but it’s meatier.  More tables, more numbers, more statistics, more explanations and hedges about what can properly be controlled for, and what can’t.  Those who have read this site for a while and listened to our podcasts know I love that kind of thing.   A couple of long chapters of the book are setting up the dominos to answer the question- why do home teams have such a big advantage?

There’s no doubt there IS an advantage, and it’s substantial in pretty much every sport.  Soccer is the most lopsided, with well over 60% of games being won by the home team (they calculated the numbers for MLS, EPL, Serie A, La Liga, and others).  Basketball is next, with the NBA home teams winning 62.7% (they even calculate WNBA and college).  The NHL is next, with 59% percent of home teams winning, and football (57.8%) and baseball (54.1%) bringing up the rear.

So, some things that are interesting about this discussion, the first being obvious, the others not (but backed up by the data).

1. Home teams win the majority of games, sometimes a significant majority.
2. This winning percentage is constant across time.  The winning percentage of home teams was about the same 50 years ago as it was 10 years ago, or now.
3. The winning percentage is directly related to the sport itself.  Japanese baseball home teams have about the same winning percentage as MLB home teams.  Arena football the same as the NFL.

I’ve never thought about this too much before, but even #1 is really remarkable.  Why do home teams win so much, and so consistently?  There has been no NHL season where away teams won more games than home teams. As watchers of plenty of NHL games, I’m sure we all think of several reasons why this is.  One is the home crowds- the home players play better when you’re cheering them rather than booing them.  Another is travel- away teams have to deal with hotels, unfamiliar surroundings, and jetlag.

Incredibly, the authors make very good cases that both of these are myths.  It’s really hard to control for home crowds, because there are so many other interactions going on.  But here’s one feat in hockey that’s essentially isolated from all those player and referee interactions- the shootout.  It’s basically an interaction between two players and the crowd.  So if the crowd were a factor in home player’s effort and performance, you expect the shootout to have a home-rink advantage the way the rest of the game does, right?  Well, it doesn’t.  Since the shootout started, away teams won the shootout 50.6% of the time.  The home-rink advantage just doesn’t exist in the shootout.

And, amazing, they manage to control for travel as well.  How could you do that? Well, what about teams that are really close together, like the Devils, Rangers, and Islanders?  You’d expect less home advantage when those teams play each other, because they don’t have to really go anywhere- just drive a bit further.  But if you look at those games, the home advantage is exactly the same as all the other games.  They found there is a small effect with back-to-back games, which in most sports occur more often on the road.  But that’s not nearly enough to explain it all.

So what the hell is it?  I’m going to put a break here in the post, because some people might actually want to read the book and not get the spoiler.  I’ve condensed many pages into this post, and believe me, it’s worthwhile to read all the other support the authors have come up with.  Or, more likely, you just want to bail out because there’s too many words reading sux zzzzz…..

(more…)

The Dudes are delighted that the Sharks got Ian White (despite Mike’s wariness), and the number of massive trades that have happened in the NHL the past few days.  Oh, and the Sharks are still winning!  All that, and some listener questions, as always.

Fashion is not a tight shirt holding a stick

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The Dudes delay a bit this week to give the recap of the Washington and Nashville games, and dive into the wonderful trade season.  The deadline is only about 10 days away, and there are lots of Crazy Trades proposed by listeners, as well as players on the move that need to be evaluated.

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I just had a desire to do some photoshopping, and I figured this was appropriate.

Know Huskins, know hope. No Huskins, no hope.

Because of scheduling conflicts, Doug and I figured we’d do the podcast immediately following the Caps game on Thursday, which we’ll be attending in person.  Then we can talk about that game as well as the Nashville game.  Plus the rumor mill is really heating up, and we’ll talk about some Crazy Trades.  Get your emails in (or tweet @dudesonhockey, I’m trying to be better at twitter these days) if you have any topic ideas or questions.

No Pronger, No Nieds, No Service.

Ian White is eating Cracker Barrel in the backwoods of Carolina.

James Wisniewski – Montreal, s’il vous plait.

Francois Beauchemin – Back to Anaheim where the Hills are Alive with the Sound of Selanne.

Our streak of picking available d-men to get moved  continues to be golden today as the Toronto Maple Leafs traded veteran blueliner Francois Beauchemin back to the Anaheim Ducks for forward Joffrey Lupul, former 2008 first round pick Jake Gardiner and a future 2013 4th round pick. This leaves one less impact defensemen on the open market for Doug Wilson to target in the coming weeks, but Toronto’s asking price (a top three prospect) is too high for my taste.

Jake Gardiner is the jewel of this deal, an unsigned college defensemen currently in his junior year at the University of Wisconsin and fresh off a three assist and +9 performance for the United States at the World Junior tournament in 2011. Gardiner was the Ducks first round pick in 2008 (when the Sharks went fishing for the Daniels twins from Northeastern University – we profile them this week in our podcast posted below) and he has real solid potential to be a very good professional hockey player and he could surface in the NHL as soon as next year next to Luke Schenn, if he signs an ETL at the end of the year. In order to get Gardiner, the Leafs had to give up a solid blueliner in Francois – but they also had to take out a bit of Bob Murray’s trash in the bloated contract of Joffrey Lupul and his 4.25M cap hit until 2012-13. Lupul is a solid 2nd line forward when healthy, but he has only suited up for 49 games since 2009 and has a disappointing 27 points in that span. Is it worth it to get Gardiner? In my opinion, yes. If you’re the Leafs, you invest in your future and Gardiner could be a major player on that team in the next three years. Burke is fully aware of Gardiner and his skills, he did draft the kid after all when he was GM of the Ducks in the summer of 2008.

So, we can imagine that Brian Burke told DW he wanted  something like Devin Setoguchi, Justin Braun or Charlie Coyle and a 4th round pick for Beauchemin. A hefty price for the French-Canadian d-man and a move I’m frankly shocked to see the Ducks make. Do they really think they have the horses, especially on their 2nd thru 4th forward lines, to make real noise in the playoffs? Nah. I think Bob Murray just made another boo boo and got taken by his former boss. Why break up the chance to have Gardiner, Fowler and Sbisa running around the Pacific Division for years to get a veteran guy who is better served on a Cup contender? With Murray, it’s not too surprising. “Stupid is as Stupid Does.” Just look at the Jason Blake deal (33 points in 78 games as a Duck while making 4M). Good job Bob. Throw another chair, just don’t hit my laptop.

Make sure to listen to the podcast this week and take part in the listener poll and let us know how you consume the Dudes on Hockey podcast. Mike loves stats and will spend hours pouring over the data as the Dudes continue their quest for Podcast Domination.

Join us next week when Joni Pitkanen gets traded to…somewhere else.

The Dudes are joined by a guest this week in a way they’ve never done it before – live!  Or as live as a podcast can get.  Mike and Doug gush about the wins over Washington and Boston, continue with another Young Dudes segment, and even premier a new one.  Please take a moment to answer the poll question on dudesonhockey.com

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Once again Mike and Doug look to the listeners to drive the topics on the podcast.  The Dudes talk about what defensemen might be in the Sharks’ crosshairs, the continuing Nabby saga, the Calder race, and a fantasy this-or-that.  Plus bonus material – mystery pucks revealed!

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