For the second year in a row, the Sharks are staring down the Wings in the second round.  Mike and Doug compare and contrast both the Sharks and Wings teams from a year ago, and make their picks.  A short recap of the first round follows, with some of the Dudes picks working out to perfection, and others not.

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The Dudes celebrate the gritty round 1 win against the Kings, with Joe Thornton putting in the game winner.  Mike and Doug identify the series MVP, evaluate Niemi’s performance and prospects, and look forward to either Chicago or Detroit in round 2.

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I was so mad at the Niemi tonight, because he basically gave that game away in the first ten minutes. People might quibble on how responsible he was, but I think he was at least partially to blame on all three.

1. Shot through traffic with a deflection, but he had a pretty narrow butterfly.  A 6’2 butterfly goaltenter should be able to cover the bottom of the net when he goes down, and he didn’t.  This was his ‘best’ goal.
2. Clifford’s goal came because Niemi couldn’t catch the damn biscuit, and left it 2 feet outside of the crease for him to clean up.
3. Penner’s goal was just an outside shot with Niemi too deep.

I knew once the Kings were up 3-0 they wouldn’t make the same mistakes they made in game 3, and sure enough, they sat on it, played the 1-2-2, got two and three guys in the shooting lanes, and pulled it out. But the real story of the night was Jonathan Quick, who made 52 saves, only giving up one goal. I was thinking to myself, how often does a Sharks goalie put up a line like that?

So I decided to invent a new stat, called the Goalie Steal. A goalie steal is when the goaltender gives up 1 goal or less while making 35 or more saves. 35 isn’t particularly significant, but I had to put a cutoff point somewhere. 31 or 32 saves just doesn’t sound that impressive, and somehow, 36 does. I went back and looked at the box score for every playoff game the Sharks have participated in since the lockout. Here are the goalie steals:

Notice anything missing about this list?  Yep, not a single Sharks goaltender has posted a Goalie Steal since the lockout.  Nabby had a 34 save shutout in 2007, so maybe I should give him a freebie.  But anyway, the point is the same- there hasn’t been a dominating goalie performance in the playoffs in a very very long time.

I admit this does certainly have something to do with the Sharks D- if they don’t give up a lot of shots, then the goalie doesn’t have the opportunity to steal a game.  That’s frankly true for most games- the Sharks haven’t given up 35 or more shots in too many playoff games.  But in every damn one of those games, they had to score 3 goals (the ‘magic number’) or more to win, or lost it.

Great game last night. And it was made that much better by participating in a chat right here at DOH.  I think we had about 15 people at the peak, which was really great.  Just a fun way to watch an away game, I plan on joining for future games, and encourage you all do to the same.  I just installed a differerent kind of chat, an IRC-based one, which I think will be more robust than the one we used last night.  You can even get IRC clients for smartphones, or a standalone one that you install on your computer.  I already tried an iPhone client, and it seems to work fine, so all those people who want to be at a bar and still participate in the chat, this will be a better solution.

Infrastructure stuff aside, it’s the 2nd line again that’s carrying the team.  You know what?  I don’t have a a problem with that.  Doughty-Mitchell is as tough of a defensive pair as there is in hockey, and it’s nice the Sharks have an answer when those guys do their job.  That’s not to excuse the Jumbo line, which really hasn’t been that great yet.  Joe made a nice play to get his goal, but it was on a line change.  It’s not like Joe, Seto, and Patty were cycling and creating chances for fifty seconds before Joe scored.

But really the most disappointing thing about the Sharks this postseason has been the utter lack of a 4th line.  Mayers played only 5:10 last night, and was still -1, on a goal that was catalyzed by his turnover.  Eager had only 3:18, but at least he wasn’t on the ice for that one- he must have just gotten off.  I feel like Joe Montana when I say “turnovers can hurt you” (not the most trenchant thing ever said about sports), but the Sharks have really illustrated that in this series.  I know icing is bad and all that, but wouldn’t you rather have a faceoff in your zone than a turnover at your own blue line?  Especially for a team that is just killing it in the faceoff dot.  Thornton was 6 for 7 against Stoll and 7 for 11 against Hanzus.  That’s just flat-out domination.

Doug and I will be at the game tomorrow night, but feel free to jump on the chat again if you’re watching from home.  I’d like to hear how it performs.

The Dudes almost can’t believe the Sharks dug (Doug?) themselves out of a 0-4 hole.  But here they are, up 2-1, and the Dudes try and figure out what has gone so right (and wrong) with the series.  Does Niemi’s last two performances warrant a change?  Who are the unsung heroes and goats so far?  All that, and a recap of the other great 1st round series.

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What, more bullet points?  Amazing!

• People don’t use the term ‘gird your loins’ enough.
• Nobody gets to panic one little bit unless and until the Sharks lose game 3.
• Even then, I seem to remember something about being down 2-1 against Colorado last year…
• Thornton has to make an impact tonight.  Maybe he can fight Trevor Lewis on the opening drop.
• Another big idea- keep an eye on #8.  Just sayin’.
• Doug will be participating in the chat tonight during the game, if you want to stop by.
• Go Sharks.

Here are some random points on game 1, thoughtfully posted in bullet form.  So convenient, because then I don’t have to weave them into a coherent storyline.

• The Kings controlled well over half of the game, I thought the Sharks were a bit lucky to make it to overtime.
• I don’t believe in clutch players as a rule, but Joe Pavelski is making a damn compelling case otherwise.
• The Stoll hit on White was unfortunate and borderline dirty.  My gut feeling is this gets 2 games in the regular season, but none in the playoffs.  Cue Mike being wrong in 3…2…1…
• Thank God for Justin Braun.
• It’s a bit of a strange feeling, but I’m hoping Huskins gets healthy, because with Braun in, our #7 is Mike Moore.
• Demers should have gotten 2 for charging on that hit.  For a second there I thought he was auditioning for Cirque de Soleil.
• Anybody else have visions of Craig Anderson when Quick came up huge in the 3rd?
• Doug’s wife sang the national anthem, and was great.  I wanted to tweet that before the game, but cell phone reception at the Tank sucks, and I didn’t get permission in time.
• I highly recommend the Chicago-style hot dogs sold near section 119.
• I have a semifinal game of my own tomorrow night, but I have tickets to game 2.  I’d appreciate advice on this moral quandary.  I told myself I’d play if the Sharks won game 1, but that game was so good I don’t want to miss a minute of this series if I can help it.
• Is it just me or did Doughty get beat on the outside a few times?
• My beard looks like crap.
• I love the playoffs.

The best part of the hockey year has begun, and the Dudes are on it.  They recap the season, including their pre-season picks, and pick the first round of the playoffs.  Of course the main event is the Sharks – Kings series, with Mike and Doug making their choices.

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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Y73sPHKxw[/youtube]

At this point, entering into the last day of the season, the Sharks have clinched the #2, but could still play Chicago, L.A., Nashville, or Phoenix.  The Ducks, having a lot of regulation and overtime wins, are guaranteed the #4. Doug’s wish didn’t come true tonight- the Preds lost.

The worst thing that could happen is Chicago loses in OT or the shootout. Because they have more ROW (regulation and overtime wins) than the Kings, they win that tiebreaker and move into the #7.  So we want a beatdown tomorrow, one way or the other.

It’s possible that seeds 4-8 could all end up with 99 points.  If that happens, it’s really crazy.  Chicago would move up to the #5 because they’d have 39 ROW.  Nashville and Phoenix would have to go to the fourth tiebreaker, because they’d have the same number of ROW, and split the season series.  The Preds have a better overall goal differential, so they are the #6.  We’d play Phoenix (I wonder if playing one team 9 times in a row would be an NHL record), and the Kings would fall to the #8.

It could get even crazier than that.  If the Hawks won in the shootout then there’d be a three-way tie for ROW.  The tiebreaker is points per game in those matchups.  Chicago has acquired 13 points in 10 games versus those two opponents, Phoenix 9 points in 8 games, and Nashville 10 points in 10 games.  So Chicago would still get the #5, but Phoenix would move up to the #6 and we’d get the Preds.

Because Dallas went 3-1 against the Hawks this year, they are still alive- they have to win in regulation or overtime tomorrow and the Hawks have to lose in regulation for the Stars to snag the #8.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend – go Wings!  And go Minnesota – we want Vancouver facing Chicago again.

The playoff picture is almost complete. It all hinges on a few more games. Does the role go to the defending Stanley Cup champs, das Chicago Blackhawks, or the team that caught fire with the easiest stretch run schedule, the Dallas Stars?

All Chicago has to do is get a point at home against the Red Wings. They do that, it’s red rover, red rover, call Patrick Kane over for either Vancouver, San Jose or Detroit – a nightmare first round match up for any of the big three. Bottom line, you have to go through some tough teams to win the Stanley Cup, but it would be nice for the Sharks to get a little bit of luck. So, if you want to be obsessive like this Dude, follow my simple game plan to Sharks playoff bliss this weekend.

SATURDAY
Nashville @ St. Louis – Go Preds!

Phoenix @ San Jose – the Sharks take two points here and lock up the #2 seed and put the Coyotes back in their place.

Anaheim @ Los Angeles – you swallow your pride and root for another Ducks win, putting them essentially out of reach for the Sharks in the first round and you avoid the hottest team streaking into April. You then set up the chance to play LA in round one.

SUNDAY
Detroit @ Chicago at 9:30 on NBC – Now the Sharks have the #2 in hand, you root for the Wings and throw up a little in the process. Blank the Hawks, allow them no points and set up the fluke that they might not make the dance at all.

Dallas @ Minnesota at 3pm on NHL Network – Dallas need to win in regulation to have a chance. It must be regulation to tie the Blackhawks in the first tie breaker, which is regulation wins. Both teams would have 38. Then you go to head to head record and the Dallas Stars won the season series 2-1-1. Dallas is in. Good night Chicago.

NHL Playoff Schedule Revealed at 7pm pacific on NHL Network – Thanks to one of my favorite blogs, Puck the Media, for making this bit of news public. It’s always such a pain in the *** to wait for the playoff schedule, so hopefully the NHL is taking a page out of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament here and reveals not just the matchups, but the actual schedule on Sunday night at a reasonable time so maniacs like myself don’t have to stay up all night refreshing Safari and drinking Coke Zeros.

In this scenario, here’s how the playoffs would end ( I think, remember…theatre major doing math)

1) Vancouver vs. 8) Dallas with 97 points.
2) San Jose with 105 points vs. 7) LA with 98 points.
3) Detroit with 102 points vs. 6) Phoenix with 99 points.
4) Nashville with 101 points vs. 5) Anaheim with 99 points

You have home ice vs. Detroit, which is important, and Phoenix took them to the brink last year and the Wings went 2-1-1 vs. Phoenix this year with both the wins going to overtime. Phoenix could torment them again and wear them down. Good scenario for San Jose.

The Ducks get the #5 over Phoenix because they have several more regulation wins.

The Sharks would also draw the weakest playoff opponent and the team that goes into the postseason spinning like you did on your 21st birthday. They don’t have their two best scorers. They will have lost (in this scenario) four of their last six. Not too good. Ripe for a quick killing.

Remember, this is a perfect world scenario. We all know it won’t work out this way the Sharks will likely draw Anaheim or Chicago because, well, that’s the way it seems to work for our hockey karma.

Have a good hockey weekend. Go Sharks!