DOH 299 – Boom Goes the Dynamite
March 14th, 2015, 12:19 pm
San Jose has exploded in controversy, with Joe Thornton going head-to-head against Doug Wilson in the press. The Dudes speculate relentlessly on what this all means, what this is all about, and what might happen next. Oh, and they won two games against top opponents.
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Kudos to the dudes for recording so soon after this story broke. My read on Joe’s comments was a little different, more like “Doug should [stop suggesting I am a bad locker room guy, he’s not around enough to know.]” The “sabbatical” comment sounds specific. Perhaps Wilson took a break during the season.
Thornton won’t get suspended because 1. Wilson/McClellan don’t hold players accountable in meaningful ways 2. Wilson doesn’t want to further sour Thornton because they need to negotiate his trade this summer and 3. He’s still the team’s best offensive player.
Here’s what I think will happen between now and opening night of the 2015-16 season: The team will miss the playoffs. Wilson will keep his job. McClellan will be fired. Thornton will be traded for relatively little return. Pavelski will be named the new captain.
Keep ’em coming, dudes! Go Sharks!
Let me get this straight: Thornton is accused of responding to pressure by lashing out. He refutes the accusation by … lashing out.
Thanks for the podcast! I liked it a lot. 😀
I agree with Ted here. I’m not a fan of DW at all, but Jumbo was not helping his case by lashing out to defend himself about the comments about him lashing out. He would’ve been better off letting it roll off his shoulders… Especially seeing how we played tonight.
I like McClellan as a coach. I think if we could get a good front office to back him up that agreed with him, we could turn things around next year. But sadly, this is not how hockey works, and I am expecting McClellan out of here right after the season is over. DW probably wants someone more on board with his agenda.
Im wierdly looking forward to the offseason…. When the team owner has to get involved and says “focus ib hockey and making the playoffs. This will get resolved in the offseason.” Makes me wonder about Perer Chiarelli becoming our new GM since his job is on the line un Beantown. Thorton the one player for sure who has a relationship with Hasso will probably be moved prolly to a team like Tampa Bay or Winnipeg. Hopefully for a solid return of picks/prospects. This offseason should be amazing!
Great episode. While I think Thornton cemented his reputation as a poor leader, he ultimately did us all a favor: he has ensured *something* will happen this summer. Hasso will have to choose between Thornton and Wilson. I’m fine with whoever goes and frankly, wish it could be both. I think Tyler’s forecast sounds about right. Here’s hoping the team really tanks over the last month here, so we get our first top 10 pick since drafting Couture in ’07 and only their 3rd top 10 pick in the 21st Century.
That was a really enjoyable podcast. I can’t imagine what you guys could do with a team with constant drama like Toronto or Vancouver during the Lou/Schneider debacle.
As far as the blowup, I have officially turned on Doug Wilson. I had turned on TMac since I heard he was lobbying to keep Burish in the lineup. I think the Sharks should go off the wall for the next Coach/GM combo, no retreads.
Funny, Sharks basically did both things in the Chicago game, came out like gangbusters and then lost it in the 3rd. Not sure what that really says except perhaps they care but just aren’t good enough? I guess that is more evidence that DW hasn’t done his job and not of some locker room rift against Jumbo? Don’t know, I’m obviously dissatisfied with DW so I’m probably biased.
Wilson has done a lot for the Sharks. He’s had a phenomenal run. But the latest Puck Daddy article is full of laugh-out-loud quotes that make you wonder if he’s lost it. “[Joe] and I have had many colorful and creative conversations” … “He’s leading by example” … “Our relationship is at a really, really good place.” I guess he wants all his players to publicly call him a liar. And his bar for “a really, really good” relationship pretty darn low. Sounds like he’s just trying to save his job.
He is a good GM. I would love to have him in charge of an actual rebuild. He gets pretty good value in his drafts (to the extent he is responsible for the drafts) and has a very good knack for knowing when good players have topped out or are about to fall off a cliff (Murray, Clowe, Bernier, etc). Has there been a prospect he has traded that has come to bite him? Jamie McGinn wasn’t looking so hot even before his injury.
But he struggles in what should be the easiest part of the job: building depth. It should be much easier to find a 3rd line player than a top line player, but he suffers from the same “cuteness” that I think most GM’s and even most fans do – he tries to fill it with “3rd liners” instead of going out and simply getting the best players he can and letteing their play sort it out (TMac adds to this by not playing his best players but rather trying to fit to roles as well). Hence, Marty Havlat and Tyler Kennedy out for Mike Brown and Andrew Desjardins in the playoffs. Daniil Tarasov on the bench with John Scott in today against Winnipeg in “the most important game of the year.”
People, Thornton’s not going anywhere. Firstly, he’s made it perfectly clear he doesn’t want to and has a NTC. And secondly, he’s the core of the Sharks only consistent forwards line.
This is why DW *has* to be fired this off season. Like the dudes mentioned, bring in a new GM and a new coach, who don’t have the baggage and ties and promises to the players that DW has, and get some excellent prospects and high daft picks for Thorton and Marleau. And have a true rebuild.
As of today the 22nd, only edmonton and phoenix have less points than the Sharks in the west.
Oh the glory. God I hope they tank the rest of the way, they should have been a while ago.
I’m surprised there’s not more criticism of Hasso Plattner. If Thornton is pissed that Wilson doesn’t always travel with the team, how do the players feel about an owner who doesn’t even live in the country?
That’s a fairly brilliant comment actually…
I’ll give you my take on it, at least the players not liking that DW doesn’t travel enough with the team…
I think it’s just straight up an excuse for their horrible season and performace on the ice. DW is fairly hands off with this team. He lets Tmac run it how he wants. I’ve never once heard of a team, in any sport, complaining their GM isn’t around enough. Over involved, sure. But too hands off?? That one is a head scratcher.
Another statistical tidbit for your sunday morning.
The current odds of the Sharks making the playoffs: 4.5%
Odds of the #9 seed of the 2015 nhl draft (where the Sharks currently are in standings) winning the lottery and drafting #1 overall: 5%.
Translation: we have a slightly greater chance to draft Connor McDavid, 1st overall, that making the playoffs at this point.
The difference is that one of those probabilities is easier than the other to improve by doing exactly nothing that requires skill…
Also if the sharks happen to make the playoffs I would imagine that the statistical chance of them winning the Stanley cup as the lowest seed is below 2%. So… A 0.02*0.05=0.001 = 0.1% chance of winning the Stanley cup this year?
I think tanking sounds more reasonable under the circumstances.
Lets just keep rooting for the Stars,Avs, and Flyers to keep gaining points as we keep losing! I am really hoping a new GM is in the cards as soon as the season ends!
Would like to have seen how Stalock performed with 2-3 consecutive starts immediately following his shutout of the Habs.
The Sharks are trying, yet tanking, which should be a wake-up call to Wilson. Where exactly is this “young core” he wants to turn the team over to? He should have flipped Thornton, Marleau, Niemi, and Hannan for young players, prospects, and picks. Now, he’ll get nothing when Niemi and Hannan become UFA’s, and Marleau’s trade value has plummeted due to his poor play. I wonder what kind of impact Joe’s “shut his mouth and stop lying” comment would have if they shopped him. What a disaster this team is. Plattner, please blow this thing up.
One more thing … I wish someone would compile the Sharks team +/- in the 3rd period over the course of Feb-Mar. I’m guessing it’s around -15.
It’s amazing to me how many fans are acting out right now and have totally turned on DW. I honestly think 99% of it is simply bc he dared to challenge and speak against the “faultless” angel #19.
I’m gonna just say this, if you want DW fired then you better get a better replacement especially right before our first top ten pick in a decade.
I can see it now, DW gets fired amd rookie GM picks a total bust with the #9 pick. Five years go by and then they want his head for screwing up draft picks.
Meanwhile #19 and #12 hang their jerseys in the rafters right next to our “Western Conference Regular Season Champions” banner.
Well, I want DW fired. No one is faultless, but I don’t see how you don’t blame DW far more than #19 (or #12).
For the new GM, I want something different. Not Ray Shero, not Jim Rutherford, not Brian Burke, not Mike Milbury. No NHL “retreads”. I want Gabriel Desjardins or Marc Foster, or maybe someone like Julian BrisBois. Swing for the fence. Do a full buy in on analytics, since thispartial buy in on grit and veteran leadership had lead to constant disappointment.
Might the new guy screw up the #8 pick or whatever we get? Maybe. DW’s top 10 picks include Devin Setoguchi, Logan Couture, and Milan Michalek. That’s… ok I guess? All NHLers, Couture is a core piece but has to be considered a slight disappointment unless he takes one more step forward. Seto was a Joe Thornton creation (that guy again, screwing up things by making marginally talented players useful!). But, unless we get Connor McDavid, I am not expecting this top 10 pick to be a superstar. Hope, sure, but expect? I’ve seen too many Jeff Jillsons and Ty Wisharts and Lukas Kaspars to expect that.
I find Tom’s argument awfully compelling. But I can’t argue with Ruben’s second sentence.
Ruben, I’m not trying to pick on you, but you hit upon a topic, for whatever reason, I’m really interested in- the dropoff of picks after the top 5, and the perception of those picks. I’m going to list the #8, #9, #10 pick for the years 2001-2010.
2010 – Alexander Burmistrov, Mikael Granlund, Dylan McIlrath
2009 – Scott Glennie, Magnus Paajarvi, Jared Cowen
2008 – Mikkel Boedkker, Josh Bailey, Cody Hodgson
2007 – Zach Hamill, Logan Couture, Keaton Ellerby
2006 – Peter Mueller, James Sheppard, Michael Frolik
2005 – Devin Setoguchi, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon
2004 – Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik
2003 – Braydon Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, Andrei Kostitsyn
2002 – P.M. Bouchard, Petr Taticek, Eric Nystrom
2001 – Pascal Leclaire, Tuomo Ruutu, Dan Blackburn
Who would you rather have from this list than Couture? Only Ruutu has more goals (148 to 135). The point isn’t that DW is some sort of draft genius, although you can argue he’s done MUCH better than average for these high picks (small sample size, yadda yadda). Look at all the players you’ve never heard of in the above list, or barely had a cup of coffee in the NHL.
My main point here is our expectations in general are way too high for players picked outside the top 5. While the vast majority of the above made it to the NHL and played, I’d say a good 40% were never “good.” Certainly nowhere close to Logan Couture good. The Ty Wisharts, Jeff Jillsons, and Lukas Kaspars are much more common in that pick range than the Logan Coutures. And I might add DW traded all three of the above while they still had value.
Your point is well taken, Mike. I do agree that DW has found great value (to the extent he is responsible for the drafts, I understand it is Tim Burke that does most of the heavy lifting). I actually think he is a good GM for a complete rebuild.
Most importantly, I think we agree on the larger point but maybe come to different ultimate conclusions- that draft picks outside the top 3-5 in the 1st round are incredibly overvalued.I see this as one of my many reasons why I have hated this “rebuild on the fly” approach by the front office, as I think it is bad asset management and vision. Others see it as a reason to keep DW due to his draft successes.
In other words, depending on your viewpoint, the best case scenario this year was either squeaking into the playoffs or a pick between 7-12. Those are horrible “best case” options for a franchise. In hockey (and most sports), Ricky Bobby is mostly right … “if you’re not first, you’re last.” That goes for both the Cup and the draft order.
Ruben,
I think the names you threw out as ideas for GM are interesting. And I’m not against the idea of a full scorched earth policy. I think the thing that drives me crazy is I am seeing people on other sharks chatrooms and on twitter actually claiming this team could win the Stanley Cup if it just wasn’t for DW’s mismanagement…
They literally want to fire DW only, and just bring in more veterans. At best I think that is total folly. At worst, it’s just straight Joe Thornton homer-ism.
And Mike as usual, you hit it out of the park. I think I have overvalued those 5-10 picks too…
One note though.. Lukas Kaspar was drafted 22nd overall and was never traded. He was waived and eventually fizzled out. But a good lesson none the less that #1 draft picks don’t always work out.
Oops.. forgot to add this point…
The one wrench for me in this discussion about the value of a potential sharks ten ten pick, is the 2015 NHL draft is supposed to be stacked.
In all likelihood, a #7-9 pick in 2015, might catch a player that in some years might be a top 3. While I concede your point Mike, THIS YEAR though might be the exception rather than the rule.