DOH 397 – Questions, Yet First Place
November 14th, 2018, 1:01 pm
Not all cylinders are firing for the Sharks yet, but they have beaten Nashville twice and are in first place.
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Finally
Mike, you really mischaracterized my comment. I never said they should “get [Karlsson] out of here” now that we are only “less than a quarter of a season.” I wrote we shouldn’t sign him long term unless he improves by new year’s. There’s nothing controversial about not wanting to fork out an 8-year $64 million + deal for a defenseman who is a -9 player, who consistently turns the puck over at crucial times in games (Kurz’ tiwtter feed has documented several of these), and has yet to score a goal! My argument is, if EK is still playing at this mediocre to poor level at New Year’s, don’t sign him long term. Spend the money on a player like Pavs, or a center, or get picks, all of which we need desperately.
For the record, the Dudes blow the Fin Factor out of the water! Go Sharks!
You said, “If EK doesn’t make a huge improvement by new year’s, the Sharks must deal him to the East…”
So, half a season then. BTW, Brent Burns had 7 points in his first half season as a Shark.
I’m the first to admit, this is a place where analytics doesn’t help you much. Karlsson has played 627 regular season games, 19 of which with the Sharks. Are you really going to value his long-term worth on the most recent 19 and not the previous 608?
If the GM and coaching staff decide his playing style or temperament is not a long-term fit for the Sharks, I might (reluctantly) agree he should be traded. But I’m very wary of looking at performance numbers from 3% of his career and only using those to extrapolate forward.
Yes, half a season is twice what you quoted me as.
My argument is about value. You brought up Burns. He made $4 mil / year initially with SJ. If we can sign Karlsson to that, of course he’d be worth it. Yes! But that would never happen.
Karlsson has already turned down $10 mil / year from the Sens. His contract from SJ would presumably be $8-10 mil. I say, if he’s not putting up numbers and meeting the eye test of being the highest paid Dman in NHL history, don’t sign him.
What’s so controversial about that?
Also, it’s not like he’s always been a great Dman. He is -45 for his career. His upside is possession and scoring. If I’m paying that kind of money – most for any Dman in NHL history! – the way he’s playing now isn’t worth it.
I don’t believe the stats support this argument. +/- is not generally a good metric for this, in my opinion. I look at a combination of Corsi and PDO to try to get a feel for defensive ability- if the player is not driving possession, then more goals will be scored against. If a player is generally unlucky (shooting percentage and save percentage do not correlate year-to-year) then more goals will be scored against.
A general feel for ESSV% (even strength save percentage) is the league average is well over 90%. If we look at the past five years, sorting by minutes played in the regular season, there isn’t a single year when more than three goalies in the top 50 (in minutes, not SV%) were under 90%. Karlsson has suffered this twice over a full season, 88.1% last year. And this year, save percentage while he has been on the ice has been 85.5%. One can make an argument that he’s been the cause of the terrible SV%, but then one has to explain why Logan Couture’s is even worse. Very likely the reason Couture is only -1 is because is oiSH% (on-ice shooting percentage) is a full 5 points higher, which, like SV%, is not something a player generally has a lot of control over.
I’m not trying to say Karlsson is a defensive stud. I think he’s a fine, probably better-than-average defensive player, who’s been rather unlucky during the past few years. He’s been a plus player every year when he’s gotten 90% or more ESSV% from his goalie. I don’t see anything in the (admittedly limited) stats this year to show me he’s turned a corner.
Sorry I’m nattering on, I just find this interesting. Found a really interesting stat on Natural Stat Trick. Kurz quotes this sometimes in relation to the team, but it also tracks so-called “high danger” scoring chances for and against, HDCF%.
Karlsson’s HDCF% is 54.48, a little less than his corsi percentage, but certainly in line. How many of those high danger changes (both for and against) have the Sharks actually scored on? Only 33%. I don’t see how to interpret this as anything other than shitty luck.
You’re far from the only person down on Karlsson. If I made it seem I was only talking about you on the podcast, I apologize. I’ve seen plenty of comments elsewhere where people are agitiating for trading him right now.
No, I didn’t take it that way. I just didn’t like you misquoting what I wrote.
You make good points, showing he’s a good player overall. All I’m trying to say is, the way he’s playing right now doesn’t justify making him the highest paid Dman in league history.
I don’t understand what is controversial about what Matty wrote. In fact I agree. Karlsson is a world class player. He’s a top 5 defenseman and when he’s hot, he can take over a game or even a series as we saw in the ECF vs. Pittsburgh. But as the recent FtF article showed, it’s really unlikely the Sharks can keep him and Pavs. Plus, this Sharks roster is incomplete. We need a top center – at least a #2 center if Couture is the new #1 – and a 4th line center. Personally, I’d deal Karlsson, resign Pavs for 3 years, lock up Timo, and go out and get those two centers. JMO.
I bet the Sharks were planning on signing Pavs to a very, very team friendly deal. But the year he’s having might really mess with their plans. I was all for the Kane deal because he played so well last year. But right now, it looks like that Kane contract will keep the Sharks from keeping Pavs. Plus, you have Timo breaking out, and it’s unclear if Jumbo can play another year so that may be et another center gone. This team was built to win this year. Obviously DW loves Kalrsson or he wouldn’t have given up so much to get him. And he loves Timo because he’s been untouchable. My guess is Pavs is gone, unless he takes a huge pay cut.
Of course dealing Kane might not be off the table this summer if his season doesn’t improve. The Sharks never could have guessed they’d land Karlsson when they signed Kane. Wouldn’t you rather have Karlsson than Kane, even if Kalrsson costs $11 mil vs $8 mil? Would love to be able to see the conditions of Kane’s contract. Is there a list of teams he can be dealt to similar to Heatley?
The only way Karlsson does not sign with the Sharks is if he chooses not to. Signing him is Wilson’s top priority.
I would have considered a coaching change unthinkable even 2 weeks ago. Now, I’m not so sure. It could happen.
My fear is that Karlsson stays for the entire season, we lose early in the playoffs, then he walks. Meaning, we’re the Islanders – getting absolutely nothing for our top player because we lose him as a UFA. Actually, we’d be worse off than the Isles, because we gave up so much to get Karlsson. But I love that DW took the gamble. It makes this season one of the most exciting in years. And the best case scenario is a deep playoff run and one of the best players in the world signs here for long term. Yes, that will likely cost us a key player, but he’s worth it.
Hi Mike & Doug my name is Nate , me and my mrs love are Sharks and are from Australia and we both really enjoy your podcast ?
Do you guys think even the Sharks are 11-7-3 and with losses to Rangers , Blues , Devils and Mapple Leafs after been up 3-2 in the first then going down 5-3 and not scoring again in the 2nd & 3rd if this keeps happening Peter DeBoer be fired during the season like the Kings ,Oilers & Blackhawks did ?
Thanks guys keep up the great work GO SHARKS???
You guys laggin’!!!! When is the next podcast dudes?
Some pretty wacky comments here! But it will have to suffice since the dudes seem to have slowed the podcast down to monthly episodes this year. Exciting to see the team respond after the closed door meeting in Montreal. Am I the only one who feels starting Jones in a playoff series is quite a risk? Go Sharks!