I know this is a really original thought, but man, there’s nothing like playoff hockey. The play is quicker, harder, and much more intense. The mood of the crowd is nervous- eager to cheer at the slightest good fortune or play. And on the flip side, the Sharks crowd gets pretty quiet when Nashville is running their power cycle in our zone.

Which happened pretty often.

Last night especially, the Preds could cycle deep in our zone almost at will in the first and second periods. Kariya would have it at the half-boards. Dump it low. Forsberg would be there, maybe go behind the net and kick it out to the point, which would shoot or go around back to Kariya. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. To the Sharks’ credit, they had strong coverage in the middle, and didn’t let a forward have a good swipe at an open puck (there weren’t many, thanks to Nabby) or slip out to the weak side and look for a pass.

At least in game 4, I think it just came down to better goaltending, and more clutch performances. If you looked at every possession that didn’t result in a goal and had to predict the score, you’d probably predict Nashville 4-1 or maybe worse. But Nabby came up huge, and the Sharks had good bounces and plays. Especially Pavelski’s goal. He really created something out of nothing there.

So the question is- is it really the Sharks’ size, as Rusonowsky and Baker are saying on the radio? Or is it Nashville’s horrible road playoff record (0-7)? Since the Sharks did take one in Tennessee, I have to think it’s a bit of both. I’m making a bold prediction here, but I think game 5 could be a decisive Sharks victory, not a nail-biter like the last two. Nashville will come out in full-court press mode, and will try to cycle and push. If the Sharks stay disciplined and counter-attack, they could put up goals quickly. And I think Nashville, after their all-or-nothing trades this year, could get desperate and take penalties. The San Jose PP has to start scoring soon, you don’t want to wake the sleeping giant. It might just wake up on Friday.

So I make it a point to read the Mercury News coverage of Sharks hockey, since it is the hometown paper here on the Sharks, and I have to agree with Mark Purdy. Mark, please do me a favor- STOP REFERRING TO THE SHARKS AS “LOS TIBURONES”. It was old about a decade ago, and it hasn’t exactly taken the country by storm. Anyway, Purdy’s column talks about how Barry Trotz said hit shouldn’t have even been a penalty, and opines that Hartnell should have been suspended.

First things first. Trotz, while not having a neck, is sticking up for his guy, and is completely ridiculously wrong. It’s a dirty hit. It came late, and was a bush-league effort. It was not designed to put body on body- it was intended to block Cheech by taking his feet out. As Purdy said, Trotz would be outraged if Forsberg or Kariya was on the receiving end of such a hit. So outraged he might actually grow himself a neck. Sorry, but that joke is just too damn easy.

Check out this post. It has stills from the video. Clearly Hartnell has his right knee forward, and from the video, we know he is gliding. That means he’s trying to hit Cheech with his knee. We also see his elbow contacting Cheechoo’s head. I believe Hartnell when he said that he didn’t try to take Cheech’s knee out, but it’s hard to argue that he wasn’t trying to take him out in a extraordinarily reckless way. He got ‘unlucky’ and took Cheech’s knee out, but did successfully elbow him in the head, knocking out a tooth.

I’m not getting my righteous indignation on here, because this kind of thing can and does happen to a lot of players. Hartnell is a tough, gritty player that made a shitty play. He deserves a suspension, and more than one game. He wasn’t calculating the attack angle on Cheech’s knee to determine maximum ACL damage, but it was a dirty hit that could have had career-ending consequences. Ask Cam Neely about how easy that happens.

The East

• Buffalo(1) vs. Islanders(8). Buffalo clearly overmatches Islanders in every category except possibly goaltending, but that’s only when DiPietro is healthy and he’s not. Polish up them 9-irons, you’ll be using them soon. Sabres in 4.
• New Jersey(2) vs. Tampa Bay(7). Can the creative and explosive Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Richards overcome a Devils defense that is designed to turn creativity and explosiveness into a yawning, 100-neutral-zone-turnovers-per-game snoozefest? Probably not, but New Jersey might have trouble scoring, now that half their team are nursing injuries. Plus the Lightning goaltending sucks. Devils in 6.
• Atlanta(3) vs. Rangers(6). Atlanta made deadline moves for Tkachuk, Zhitnik, Dupuis, and Belanger, and won the season series 3-1, but I think Lundquist being hot, and unmistakable scoring power in Jagr and Shanahan will be enough to stumble the playoff first-timers. Rangers in 6.
• Ottawa(4) vs. Pittsburg(5). Probably the most exciting series of the first round. You need a full hand to count the superstar scorers involved- Crosby, Malkin, Heatley, Spezza, Alfredsson. Ottawa are ‘chokers’ in the first round, but Pittsburg’s lack of defense will be their undoing. Crosby doesn’t give up, but he’ll have more trouble with Phillips, Redden, and Mezsaros than Heatley will have with Gonchar(who doesn’t play defense) and Orpik (who?). Ottawa in 6.

The West

• Detroit(1) vs. Calgary(8). Detroit’s gaudy record is fluffed by playing 24 games against the dregs of the west, St. Louis, Columbus, and Chicago. Zetterberg and Kronwall are out, and the Wings will hurt for scoring with only Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and the inevitable Nik Lidstrom with over 60 points. Calgary can finally score, but their D is weaker than years past. Yet they have perennial Vezina candidate Kipper to back them up, while the Dominator could go down at any time, he’s 42. And yes, I’m still bitter about the Kiprusoff trade, even though we drafted Vlasic with the pick we got. Calgary in 6.
• Anaheim(2) vs. Minnesota(7). Some people have picked Minnesota in an upset, and while I hate the Ducks as much as any Sharks fan, those people are on friggin’ crack. The Ducks, while not playing in a Jacque Lemaire-inspired robotic trance, are better at every phase except maybe PK. Every time Gaborik and Demitra are on the ice, they’ll be staring down the barrel of two Norris winners. Have fun with that. Ducks in 5.
• Vancouver(3) vs. Dallas(6). Vancouver was the matchup I didn’t want, and I’ll happily watch Dallas go down like a sack of dirt. They might be able to stop the Sedins for a while, sooner or later they will score, while Dave Tippett will be cursing management for saddling him with Ladislav Nagy. Turco would have to stand on his head, something he’s never done in the playoffs, but oh yeah, he’s against the Vezina favorite, Roberto Luongo. Later Stars. Vancouver in 5.
• Nashville(4) vs. Sharks(5). While the Vancouver matchup would be worse, this one is plenty bad. As Sharks fans all know, San Jose has a dismal record against all the other playoff teams, 1-3 against Nashville. This year we get the pleasure of facing Vokoun instead of Mason, and Forsberg added to their already-powerful lineup. If Cheech and Nabby can stay hot, we can win the series. But I’m so far away from objective it isn’t even funny. Sharks in 7.

Before Wednesday- full prediction of the first-round matchups.

So the West is good. Ridiculously good. Right now the Sharks have 96 points, only good enough for 7th in the West. To put that in a bit of context, 96 points is higher than any 7th seed for the past 20 years. Probably longer, but I didn’t feel like going back any further. It’s likely that the top 7 seeds in the West will have over 100 points, the first time that has ever happened.

But now that there are so many extra points given the shootout, aren’t those numbers inflated? Of course. Right now, teams are earning an average of 1.115 points per game, so the whole two-points-for-a-win thing is skewed by the number of OT games where 3 points are awarded. So how do we normalize?

We normalize by the number of wins, not points. The number of season games has stayed constant long enough that we can make some historical comparisons. And we cut out shootout wins. That gives us the number of wins a team made in regulation and OT, which avoids the new requirement that there has to be a winner. So here’s the new top 8, sorted just by regulation and OT wins:

1. San Jose – 45
2. Detroit – 43
3. Nashville – 42
4. Anaheim – 40
5. Vancouver – 40
6. Dallas – 38
7. Calgary – 38
8. Minnesota – 35

If I had bothered to run the numbers before I started the post, I guess I could have made the theme about how the Sharks are getting screwed by the shootout, but it’s already too late. My original thesis is still good. It’s entirely likely, even probable, that seven teams in the West will have 40 wins or more.

Since the expansion era in the early 90’s, that has never happened. Most years it’s not even really close. This year’s Western Conference is the best collection of teams in a conference in at least 15 years, and probably more.

The Sharks have been tearing it up lately- they’ve gotten a point in their last 10 games (8-0-2). And they really played well last night against a streaking Atlanta team. Atlanta is a very quick team that always wants to create odd-man rushes. That gives their snipers, Kovalchuk and Hossa, chances to score. Despite the Thrashers’ thirst for turnovers, the Sharks, after playing a fairly sloppy first period, locked it down en route to a 5-1 victory.

Halfway through the game, there were still no penalties called. The Sharks were up 3-1, and I’ll let Victor Chi of the Mercury News report the rest:

Coach Bob Hartley yanked goalie Kari Lehtonen in favor of Johan Hedberg. Then on the ensuing faceoff, Jon Sim challenged Bell. Bell, not wanting to scrap with a three-goal lead, declined Sim’s initial invitation to fight.

“Then he slashed my stick,” Bell said. “I said, `What are you doing?’ He said, `We’re going.’ I said, `Are you serious?’ `Yeah.’ So I dropped my gloves. I called his bluff. I’ve played against him before, so I knew he was probably going to run around a little bit.”

Bell ended the bout – as well as Sim’s night – with a punch that broke an orbital bone.

Nice call, Sim. Way to help your team, by challenging a guy a head taller than you, breaking your face, and missing the rest of the season and the post season. This popped into my head, so I had to get it out. For Mark Bell:
Felony DUI rap : $100,000+
18 points in 64 games, -9 : $2,000,000
Knocking some jackass out that challenged you to a fight: priceless

Sharks play Columbus tonight at home, after beating Phoenix badly last night. Ordinarily, this would look like a trap game, because Columbus is 12th in the west, the Sharks are playing back-to-backs, and play a much better team in Colorado on Sunday

But I think the Sharks won’t take this game lightly. We need to continue to accumulate points, given that both Dallas and Anaheim are still winning. Also, the Sharks were embarrased and shut own when they last played the Blue Jackets, on 2/16. Plus, CLS just beat Anaheim in OT a few nights ago, so they’ve been a bit of the giant killers.

The toughest game in the next upcoming stretch will definitely be Thursday at Atlanta, after having to play Chicago in the Midwestern time zone the night before.

I think Anaheim is pretty much out of reach at this point, so Dallas is the really the one we’re in the dogfight with. Looking at the Stars’ schedule the rest of the year, they have to play Nashville twice, Anaheim twice, and Detroit. But they also get to play Phoenix three times, in less than two weeks no less. I’d rate our schedule slightly easier. At this point, we’re dead even in terms of points, so as long as we play one point better than them, we’ll probably get the 5th spot. Then we get the privilege of playing Nashville or Detroit in the first round. Hmm, maybe we should just lay back a bit and take Vancouver. Either way we’re in for a ridiculously tough matchup.

Just look at the east 3 through 6- Atlanta, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. I’d say at this point, any 3-6 West team against any one of those teams would be a big favorite. This sucks.

To those who saw or heard about the game last night, this story will be decidedly anti-climactic. Others, read on. So Bill Guerin has been scoreless since he joined the Sharks at the trade deadline- 6 games, no goals, no assists. And not only that, he’s been largely unnoticed on the ice. Victor Chi, on the Sharks beat for the SJ Mercury makes a good point- he hasn’t gotten much practice time with his linemates (Marleau and Pavelski) because they’ve been hurt or sick most of the time lately.

So last night the Sharks are completely dominating the game in terms of puck possession, and Guerin drives down the right side on a seemingly routine play, and slides the puck towards the net sort of as an afterthought. It goes right through Patrick Lalime’s legs for the first goal of the night. Maybe that’s why Lalime’s been on 3 teams the last three years. Anyway, the Sharks score two more in the first, one in the second, but sort of stagnate a bit in the 2nd period and get outshot, but not scored upon.

The 3rd period, they’re jumping again. Joe and Grier score, and then Guerin scores again, on the power play. Nice little backhand coming from behind the net. So now the fans are rustling a bit- Guerin now has three points, and there’s still time for a hat. Guerin has a couple more chances, but nothing goes in. Then, with only seconds left in the third period, Guerin gets a clear chance at the goal, but hooked from behind. Penalty shot!

Sure, the game is 6-1 at this point, so another goal means precisely nothing, but it was pretty electric in there. Guerin had a hat trick against the Sharks while he was with the Blues, and now he might have one for us, his first three goals in a Sharks uni. Crowd on its feet, many waving hats in the air in anticipation, myself included, although it’s my beloved Sharks hat.

Guerin skates down slightly left of the goal, pauses, and calmly shoots the puck right through the 5-hole. Pandemonium. Hail of hats. I let mine fly just as the red light went on. Someone relayed it onto the ice for me, and the cheers continued for a long long time. Great stuff.

You’d think we won a playoff series in there, as opposed to beating up on the 13th-best team in the Western Conference. Still, time to buy a new hat.

It’s funny because it’s almost true.

So a couple of big hits in the past week or so have given rise to much hand-wringing about shoulder-to-head contact, and late hits. The first incident was Chris Neil blindsiding Chris Drury, sparking a huge brawl, including a goalie fight. Drury needed 20 stitches to close the cut, and suffered a concussion.

The second was Cam Janssen hitting Tomas Kaberle. Kaberle’s head hit both the ice and the boards, and was carted off on a stretcher. Kaberle, who suffered a concussion, is out indefinitely.

I usually like John Buccigross, and appreciate his allegiance to hockey, one of the only SportsCenter anchors who seems to care, but I don’t agree with his analysis exactly…

I don’t understand why a shoulder pad to the head is not equivalent to an elbow to the head. This is a hit that needs to be outlawed in the NHL.

Bucci is he biggest Drury fanboy out there, so of course he feels this way. I too think the hit on Drury was dirty, but for a different reason. it was blindsided. Drury did not have the puck, had no reason to think he was being run, and had no means to defend himself. Same with the Kaberle hit, although that’s a little more arguable. Janssen didn’t even begin to initiate contact until well after Kaberle finished his pass. Kaberle wasn’t anticipating the hit, and couldn’t defend himself.

What we don’t want is a shoulder-to-head review committee. What if Zdeno Chara hits Alex Tanguay? Or Scott Parker hits Martin St. Louis? The height different is so great that it’d be hard for it not to be a shoulder-to-head contact. That is not the problem. The real problem is the timing of the hits, and the position of the players. If it’s well after the play, then it’s a penalty. If it’s blindsided, then it’s a penalty. If the player is injured and misses time, then the offending player gets a suspension and hefty fine.

There’s definitely an equipment component to all this as well. Most shoulder pads have hard plastic plates in them now, which can do more damage and even cut somebody. In many cases, illustrated in the Kaberle hit, players do not wear their helmets tightly, and they slip or fall off completely upon contact. This latter thing should be rectified immediately. If your helmet can slip out of position when you shake or nod your head violently, it should be an equipment violation. How much longer would have Pat LaFontaine’s career been if he wore a good helmet all the time? He had a specially-made one late in his career, but the damage was already done.

If the league wants to ban hard plastic plates in shoulder pads, I’m ok with that too. The ‘cleanest’ NHL hit is a shoulder to the chest, or shoulder to shoulder. With players skating at upward of 30 mph sometimes, the contact point will move quickly. You can’t leave your feet to make the hit, you can’t run someone after the play, and you have to hit them so they can brace for the contact or defend themselves. Don’t take contact out of hockey.