Pollak’s latest article in the Merc states that Marleau is likely to stay on the Sharks- that is, he won’t be traded today.  His no-trade clause kicks in with free agency tomorrow.  Also, all restricted free agents have been tendered offers, so it looks like we will have another year of Ehrhoff, Goc, and Clowe.  The only player we know won’t be back is Curtis Brown.  Even Shelley is supposed to be re-signed.

I’m jumping the gun here, but this is shaping up to be a pretty disappointing offseason so far, if it continues on this path.  If my prediction of Campbell’s departure comes true, the Sharks won’t have changed a single major (or really even minor) piece since opening day last year.  Doug Wilson may have something up his sleeve, but as we said on last week’s podcast, the Sharks haven’t signed a major free agent in the last ten years.  Every good player we have was drafted or traded for.

We’ll be recording the next podcast tomorrow night after the first crazy day of free agency.  At least I hope it’s crazy.  If it’s not that crazy, we can at least talk about all the trades that happened in the last 24 hours.  If you have anything you want us to talk about, free agents to consider, or just feedback on the show, please email us at questions (at) dudesonhockey.com, and we will read your email on the air.

There’s been a lot of talk about Brian Campbell around Sharksland the last few days, with these posts from David Pollak of the Merc, this one from Mike Chen, and probably many others around the blogosphere. Of course we’re all up in a lather about the premier free agent defenseman leaving San Jose, probably for more money elsewhere.

But that’s no longer the full story. The first Pollak post alludes to “family matters”, while the second quotes Campbell as being “spoiled” since his family got to go to a lot of games in Buffalo. I’m know I’m burying the lead here, but now that I’ve discovered the wonder of NHL Live on the NHL Network, there’s actually a bit more information that I can lend to this story, for what I would consider a very reliable source- Kevin Allen of USA Today. He said on the show this week (and I’m pretty sure this is an exact quote) that the major reason why Campbell would want to come back East is because of a “family illness.”

This puts a big brick on that side of the scale. Couple that with the prospect of other teams like the Rangers and Blackhawks being in a financial position to outbid the Sharks, I think the chances of Campbell being locked up before July 1 are now best described as “miniscule”.

I hope Doug Wilson has a hell of a sales pitch. Between the prospect of more money and being closer to a sick family member, who could honestly blame Campbell for leaving?

Me, for one. But I’m an asshole.

Based on recent history, and the signings earlier in the week – you have to expect that Doug Wilson is going to announce coming to terms with Ehrhoff and Clowe before July 1st. Wilson, following the model of the Red Wings, appears insistent on keeping the core of the team together and allowing them to sink or swim as a group that still hasn’t enjoyed success beyound Round Two of the playoffs.

Ryane Clowe – Based on what Pavelski got, you can’t expect Clowe to get more, right? Pavs had 121 NHL games and 68 regular season points. Clowe has 91 NHL games, 44 points plus a DUI and he’s coming off a major injury. So…with all that info I’m going to guess the same term as Little Joe and little less cash. Two years/3.2M for Mr. Clowe.

Christian Ehrhoff – Looking at other defensemen who have resigned this offseason, you can look at Carolina’s Tim Gleason and Trevor Daley in Dallas.

Gleason 262 NHL games 54 points -4 239 PIM Four years/11M (2.75M per)
Daley 264 NHL games 56 points -7 249 PIM Three years/6.9M (2.3M per)

And now look at Ehrhoff’s stats.
Ehrhoff 267 NHL games 90 points +31 181 PIM

So, based on the raw numbers, Ehrhoff is the superior player and at the least, will get a deal similar to Gleason’s. If Matt Carle is getting over 3M, doesn’t Ehrhoff have to be paid in the ballpark – but he certainly can’t be paid more than Rivet at 3.5M. If it happens, how about three years/9M for Ehrhoff?

Don’t forget to check out our podcast debut at dudesonhockey.com. The direct link to the post is here, and on that page, you can also find a link to the podcast feed.

I’m very pleased that Doug Wilson locked up Boucher and Pavelski today. No word on the official numbers, but we know the term – I’m guessing Boucher got 1 year/0.7M, which is in line with other veteran backups like Kevin Weekes and Brent Johnson. I am a little surprised that Pavelski only signed for two years – thought DW might go for a longer term with him. I say 2 years/3.6M for Little Joe at this point. If Patrick Eaves got 1.5M (roughly) – then Little Joe gets a little bit more. That’s a great deal for San Jose, if I’m right.

J.R. we knew about, and I think I heard that deal was for around 1M for one season. So now that he’s locked up two UFA’s and one RFA, you might expect that Clowe and Ehrhoff (if Wilson wants him to stay) might be next. I am still hoping the Sharks will try and do better than Ehrhoff, but player upgrades are likely only available via the trade market since the Sharks never have any luck in the UFA market.

Speaking of the UFA market, Mike and I both are crossing our fingers that a miracle might occur and Doug Wilson can get Darcy Tucker to the Sharks. It will take a miracle for sure. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tucker went back to Tampa Bay actually….

Don’t forget to check out our podcast debut at dudesonhockey.com. The direct link to the post is here, and on that page, you can also find a link to the podcast feed.

This is the inaugural episode of the Dudes On Hockey podcast, released on June 25, 2008.  Mike and Doug talk about the recent NHL draft, how the Sharks did, who the winners and losers were in the draft, and how the complexion of the Pacific division changed.  Also, they look forward to the start of unrestricted free agency on July 1, and weigh the Sharks options, including Brian Campbell, Patrick Marleau, and more.

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To keep ourselves from getting the shakes due to lack of hockey, we finally started what we’ve threatened to do a couple of times- a podcast. It’s called (for obvious reasons) the Dudes on Hockey podcast, and it will be hosted on dudesonhockey.com. The direct link to the post is here, and on that page, you can also find a link to the podcast feed. We’re planning on releasing one of these every single week this summer, and I hope that will tide you all over until the preseason starts.

This is our first foray into the wonderful world of audio broadcasting; we’d love your feedback. You can leave comments here or send us email through the regular channels. Or, if you want a piece of the fun, send an email to questions (at) dudesonhockey.com – I guarantee we will read your email on the next podcast. Even if it’s horribly insulting and grammatically incorrect.

Oh, and the results of our Select A Seat?  You’ll just have to listen to the podcast to find out.

Why?  Because tomorrow is our Select-A-Seat day.  The day where we get to run (or in grier’s case, limp) around the Tank and choose where our season tickets will be next year.  Unlike previous years, it appears we aren’t required to give up our current seats in section 124, so it’s a zero-risk situation.  We really like the people that we are around, but it appears that some or all of them won’t be back, so we, like Brian Campbell and Marian Hossa, will be asking ourselves, “can we do better?”

Speaking of Campbell, rumors still abound that he’ll be testing the market, but we’ve seen DW pull off some stuff in the past.  Even given the power of our GM, if I were a bookie I’d put the odds at 25-75 that we are keeping Campbell, maybe even worse.  I don’t begrudge Campbell- this will likely be the most lucrative contract of his career, and probably the only one where he can really pick and choose.  More to come on these issues and prospects in the coming days.

After much speculation and hype, the 2008 NHL Draft came and went without any appearence by Doug Wilson and the San Jose Sharks. Who knows what he tried to do – rumors had Marleau going anywhere from Columbus to Nashville – but the return must not have been what DW was seeking or the other NHL clubs didn’t want what the Sharks were selling. So, we are left to speculate the following…

1) Patrick Marleau is going to be a San Jose Sharks for the next two seasons.

2) Brian Campbell is going to walk away from San Jose. Doug Wilson’s search for a number one blueliner continues.

3) The Phoenix Coyotes got way better today by adding Jokinen for two former 1st round picks (Boynton and Ballard) and a 2nd rounder. Florida upgraded their blueline but just got a glaring hole up front. Is this really the best offer they had??

4) Dan Ellis signed for 2 years/3M instead of testing the UFA market on July 1st. Huh? I don’t get it, sure Ellis was toiling away in the AHL one year ago – but he asserted himself as a #1 goalie and could have fielded offers from goalie starved teams like Los Angeles, Ottawa, Chicago and Edmonton. Instead, he stayed put and lost cash. Don’t get it.

Now I’ll turn it over to Mike with a few comments.

1) Filatov really looks like a little girl, but his low voice with no inflection was oddly soothing.

2) I think the Umberger to Columbus deal was pretty bad.  Sure, Philly got Luca Sbisa with that pick, but Umberger is a known good quantity.  Even in a deep draft year like this one the #19 is far from a sure thing.  I guess Philly chose to sign Carter and Upshall, and ditch Umberger.  They may live to regret that move.

3) Phoenix is going to be a big pain in the ass very soon, if not this year.  Now they have Jokinen, they have Turris ready to play every day, and now Boddker this year.  The blueline could still be shaky, but their offense is going to be scary.  If Breezy can steal some games, they could make a run at the #8 seed.

Just going on the record on a few things that I think will go down at the draft tomorrow.

1) The Sharks will finally trade Patrick Marleau, getting a useful player and a first round pick in the process. Vancouver, Atlanta, St. Louis and Columbus are all suspects. Could we get Bieksa and the 10th pick for Marleau? Hmmm….

2) Whoever lands Marleau might be forced to take out Doug Wilson’s trash in the process. See what DW did to Toronto last year. They wanted Toskala, you have to take Mr. DUI – Mark Bell as well. McLaren might be attached to any Marleau deal that gets done.

3) Spezza gets traded tomorrow for a high draft pick. Ottawa is looking to get rid of their two malcontents, Spezza and Emery, and start over fresh.

4) Jokinen is also finally traded tomorrow, maybe to Columbus for the 6th pick in the draft, which Florida will use to make a bizarre, unexpected selection.

We’ll see how these predictions hold up for posterity.

Darren Dreger is reporting that the Sharks and Canucks could be talking trade involving Marleau and Ryan Kesler. I’m assuming this deal would also include Vancouver’s #10 pick in the draft on Friday. This deal makes perfect sense for Vancouver, they desperately need a top flight forward to play on a team that struggles to score goals. They have the cap room, they need a make over – they need a Marleau type player.

Why does this make sense for San Jose? Kesler isn’t a great player, but he’s good. He’s 23, he’s signed for two more years at 1.75M per and he can play center or wing on the 2nd or 3rd line. He’s got decent size and with Pavelski and Seto, could be a smooth addition by Doug Wilson. It frees up the cash to resign Brian Campbell, which I think has been DW’s priority since the season ended AND the Sharks can get an exciting, young player in a very deep draft. I’ve gone on the record as being a fan of Kyle Beach – even though some hockey people think he’s too much of a loose cannon, I think the Sharks need to have a player like this and he’s worth the risk. Colin Wilson could be there at #10 as well, another DW type player who has excelled at the college game and could contribute on the big club in two years.

What do you think?