Not so fast. BoC is a good hockey blog for us west-coasters, and Mike Chen, who writes about the Sharks, has a good post on the Nabby vs. Tosk debate. As the post shows, one can make the case that Nabby has faced much tougher opponents than Toskala. In terms of the “pushover” set, Nabby has faced the Islanders (who aren’t really a pushover now at 15-11-3) and Phoenix once. Toskala has faced St. Louis twice, Columbus, Philly, and the Kings three times. Their stats are basically identical, and Nabby has one more shutout.

But read the comments of the post too- In the ‘tough’ starts, Tosk has fared better.

Here’s my own analysis. You have to factor in the strength of the team’s record when you face them. There may not be that many swings now, but to use one example, the Penguins were 7-3-0 when we faced them in November. Now they are 13-11-5. It might be interesting to use the opponent’s record for the previous ten games, but I already did the analysis based on the “at the time” (ATT) record, so too bad. Maybe in a future post.

The ATT record Nabokov has faced so far this season is 132-91-17, where Toskala’s is 90-108-29. But since the most recent games will be more heavily weighted (the most recent game against the Kings had their record 11-16-4, but the first time it was 5-9-3), we should use points per game instead. The average Opponents Points Per Game At the Time (OPPGAAT, hehe) is 1.13 for Nabokov, 0.908 for Toskala. That’s a big difference. Extrapolate that points per game for a season, and Nabokov is facing a 92-point team vs Toskala facing a 74-point team.

In the comments thread, they talk about tough games, but using OPPGAAT, Nabby’s 4 toughest games are the toughest of the season thus far. Those were the first Minnesota game (loss), the second Minnesota game (win), the Anaheim game (loss), and the most recent Nashville game (win). All those had an OPPGAAT of 1.39 and higher. Toskala’s toughest game (using OPPGAAT) was a win against Detroit, with an OPPGAAT of 1.33.

So Nabby has a worse record against “tough” opponents, but Nabby’s “toughest” opponents were “tougher” than Toskala’s “toughest” opponents. By a lot. That may be the most time the root “tough” has ever been used in a sentence. Comparing Toskala’s most difficult starts against Nabokov’s is not a level playing field. Nabokov has faced tougher starts, and more of them.

Nabby has clearly had the better season, in my opinion.

You don’t see this move that often, at least not since Denis Savard and Guy LaFleur:

The NHL governors are meeting about the cap, but they are also talking about tweaking the schedule. Apparently they want to cut the number of interdivision games (currently 8) and increase the interconference games. Since the Sharks are in the Pacific division, it would seem reducing the number of interdivision games would benefit them, but I kind of like playing the Ducks 8 times, the games should be great. Certain scheduling tweaks can have two teams playing each other several times in a short period of time, but so what? That’s what a series is all about, when the memories are fresh.

But what I don’t like about the NHL schedule is that each team doesn’t play an entire division each year. This year for the Sharks, it’s the Atlantic. No Canadiens, Senators, Bruins, Maple Leafs, or Sabres this year. I like the symmetry of each team playing every other. Rumors are some teams are pissed about not getting butts in the seats to see Ovechkin or Crosby because some teams never play ’em, but I don’t care about that. With 82 games in a season and 30 teams, every team should play every other at least once.

So here’s my proposed schedule, which will never fly. Mostly because it reduces the number of games in a season, and as I may have mentioned before, I don’t think there’s a single time in history when a financially stable league reduced the number of games. Games mean revenue. More games mean more revenue. Anyway, I would reduce the number of interdivision games from 8 to 5. One benefit is less games, the other is that with an odd number of games, there will generally be a demonstrable ‘series winner’. Then I would include one game against the ‘missing’ division. This would reduce the overall schedule by 7 games, from 82 to 75, a nice round number. So what about it, NHL? Maybe this will keep the playoff from going into June.

Thanks for reminding me, Battle of California, one year ago yesterday the destiny of the Sharks franchise changed. It shall be dubbed Joe Thornton day. On November 30, 2005, the Sharks were on a 10-game losing streak. That night, before a game against the Stars (which they lost), it was revealed that Marco Sturm, Wayne Primeau, and Brad Stuart were late scratches for the game. Doug and I frantically dialed each other, madly contemplating what this meant. We were sure a trade was on. Given some horrible signings and deals the Sharks have made in the past (see Belfour, Ed), I was very worried. We speculated on Martin St. Louis, a player that one the MVP, but was having a bad year.

Neither of us ever dreamed it would be Joe Thornton. I still remember the excitement I felt when I realized we were getting one of the premier players in the game. I was worried about what I like to call “Ray Sheppard” disease, when a player comes to the Sharks and immediately sucks, only to regain past glory the instant they move to another team. Those worries were allayed within a month. Joe was on fire, and his nuclear explosion of points irradiated Jonathan Cheechoo to light up brighter than ever before. Ok, a tortured analogy. Joe went on to win the Hart and the Ross; Cheechoo won the Richard. And now the Sharks have the 3rd best record in the NHL.

Ahhh, good times. I hope to celebrate Joe Thornton day for many years to come.

I think I did this last season. Some friends of mine also like to put out a report on their respective teams, now that the season is a quarter over. Here goes.

Goaltending: 8
The Sharks have arguably the best goalie tandem in hockey with Toskala (10-2) and Nabokov (5-5). Just for the record, all of Nabokov’s losses came against probable playoff teams (Minnesota, Rangers, Anaheim, Edmonton, and Detroit). I only gave an 8 because while having two netminders is a strength now, the longer we get into the season the bigger a liability it will become. Especially if their respective records have a similar disparity. Tosk will want the #1, and Nabby is making #1 money with a no-trade clause.

Defense: 7
Clearly the Sharks’ biggest weakness. The 6th spot is still up in the air, with Gorges, Davison, and Murray all rotating in and out. Nobody has played well enough to lock it up. Hannen is a rock, Matt Carle is a stud, and McLaren hip-checks like a freight train. Trading one of the goaltenders for a solid defenseman (Jovo and Boynton have been rumored) could possible kill two birds with one stone. You know who I really miss? Tom Preissing.

Forwards: 8
Joe is being Joe, but the Marleau-Bernier-Michalek line is the best on the Sharks right now. Cheech is hurt, and Bell, once thought to be the answer to the “Nils Ekman issue”, has been relegated to 3rd or 4th like duty. Michalek has been playing on the top line a bit, along with Mike Grier. The third and fourth lines have been doing their job well, with being pests, keeping the puck deep, and creating a decent chance now and again, but the top line needs to be more stable and scoring in order for the Sharks to get a 9 here.

Special Teams: 10
Clearly, the best special teams units the Sharks have ever had. The Sharks are currently #1 in the NHL in PP, #7 in PK. Curtis Brown and Mike Grier have shored up the PK, and putting Marleau and Carle at the points with Joe, Michalek and Cheech on the PP is a deadly combination of skating and shooting skill. Now that Joe is shooting more than last season, the opposing D have a Hobson’s choice.

Coaching: 8
There wasn’t much pressure up until now with the Ducks the clear favorites to take the Pacific in the pre-season polls, and the fact that they didn’t lose a game until last week. But ESPN has San Jose at #1 in the power rankings, and they are no longer a secret. This will raise expectations, and the Sharks will become of of those teams that other teams get up for, like the Wings. As long as Toskala and Nabokov aren’t sniping at each other in the press, the coaches are doing a good job.

First quarter Stud: Patrick Marleau – the captain should be on the All-Star team.
First quarter Dud: Mark Bell – I’m willing to be patient, since he got the DUI and everything. But he seems to skate and shoot like a Zamboni. I have no idea how he scored 25 goals like that… there’s something missing here. He needs to find it- quick.
Biggest Surprise – Dallas. They lost Arnott and stripped Modano of the captaincy. I was sure that would sow seeds of discontent, but they are still only two points behind.
Biggest Disappointment – Ottawa. How they are under .500 with a lineup like that is putting on a clinic of underachieving.

Comments welcome.

Some might be surprised that I give the recent 4 game roadtrip such a high grade. They played 3 teams, all not very good, and only got 6 points out of 8 possible. By the Sharks’ own admission, they played poorly against the Coyotes, the second game against the Kings (where they lost) and Colorado, for significant stretches. However, this feeling about the Sharks is almost entirely new to me. In past years, when the Sharks would play badly, they’d get shellacked. As this recent road trip shows, the Sharks are capable of sucking for a while, pulling up their (hockey) socks, and squeaking out a win.

This ability to win even in non-ideal circumstances is the mark of a good team. It’s fantasy to think the Sharks will have their best game every night, or even 95% of the time. There will be plenty of games where they are discombobulated for a period, a power play, or an entire game. Poor teams give up 2 goals during a bad stretch of time, and flog themselves the rest of the game for doing it. Good teams have that selective amnesia – forget about the bad things that just happened – and go back work, knowing they can still win. In the case of the game against Phoenix, we played just crappy pretty much the entire time. But the Sharks managed to find a decent opportunity to score, made it happen, and kept the puck out of their own net. It’d be great to put a 5-0 beatdown on the Sabres, but that 2-1 squeaker has a satisfaction all its own.

One of those sports clichés I really hate is that “good teams need to beat teams that are worse than they are”. I guess there’s a small amount of wisdom here, although I have trouble wrapping my mind around teams that only beat the teams that are better than they are. Does that mean those teams suck? Anyway, the Sharks have a four-game road trip coming up that applies to this “truism”. They need to collect as many points as possible in playing the Kings twice, the Coyotes, and the Avalanche.

I thought the Avs were bad, but as of now, they are 7-5-2, good enough for second in the Northwest. They have 4 fewer points than the Sharks, but the Sharks are third in the Pacific, easily the toughest division in hockey. I still don’t think the Avs will make the playoffs, and I think the Sharks should win that game, even in as hostile an environment as Denver is.

Tomorrow night San Jose faces off against the Wild, a team that made the Sharks look foolish at home on September 21st, beating them 4-1. I was there that night, and it was pretty embarrassing. Mark Parrish was forechecking everything, and the Wild played the defensive style that frustrates so many teams. I hope the Sharks can remember that drubbing to bring something a little extra tomorrow night. The Wild, unlike Colorado, have improved in the offseason, and should make the playoffs; they may even win the division.

The season is 5 games old for the Sharks, and they are 4-1. The Blues game on opening night was a good one, with the Blues putting up more than a fight than I thought they would. Tkachuk still manages to be a pain in the ass with his physical play. Guerin and Weight, while declining the past few years, are wily veterans than made our young D look foolish at times.

The second game was against the Islanders, which the Sharks won 2-0. Nabby put in a great effort against a terrible team. The Isles have one legitimate top-6 forward, Alexei Yashin, and that’s a bit of a stretch. Plus, they are the #3 hockey team in the tri-state area. I was watching a bit of the Islanders-Predators game on Center Ice last night, and to say Nassau Coliseum was half full would be charitable. Just a horrible turnout.

The third game was against the Flames, and the Sharks continued their dominance of Calgary, continuing their pre-season streak. Alex Tanguay scored their only goal late in the game on the power play. The Flames continue to have offensive troubles. After you get past Iginla and Tanguay, who does Calgary have that can put the puck in the net consistently? Amonte? 14 goals last year. Freisen, the old Sharks #39? 17 in 2005-2006. Their #2 scorer last year was Daymond Langkow, with 25 goals. Third? A rookie defensemen, Dion Phaneuf. Not good.

The game against the Oilers was the heartbreaker. Cheechoo had a hat trick, it was the third period, and the Sharks were up 4-2 in the Oilers’ building. Then the floor fell out. Ryan Smyth had a hat trick in a little over 2 minutes to give the Oilers a 5-4 lead, and they went on to win 6-4. This is the only game I didn’t watch (my TiVo forgot) and I’m glad. I have a feeling I would have broken something if I watched that. A brutal loss against the Sharks’ opponent in the Western Conference Semis last year.

To the Sharks’ credit, they rebounded in Vancouver the next night in a back and forth game, winning 6-4. Goals game from the most unlikely of players- Curtis Brown and Mike Grier scored on breakaways, and Rissmiller and Niemenen also scored. I must say, the Sedins with Naslund is a pretty fearsome line. Daniel had a pretty stunning goal on a cut to the middle. Ohlund and Willie Mitchell are holding the blue line down fairly well for the Canucks, but it’s apparent they miss Ed Jovanovski. Even Luongo can’t keep the puck out of the net when there are 2 or 3 guys in the crease.

So tonight, we play one of the three undefeated teams in the Dallas Stars. Their new big signing, Brendan Morrow, is leading their team with 4 goals. Their record might be a bit misleading- they’ve playing Colorado, LA twice, NJ, and the Ducks. Only the last two are actually decent. It’ll be a great matchup.

Well, for the Sharks anyway. I buckled and bought the Center Ice package, and I got my first taste last night in watching the first period of the Ottawa-Toronto game. I plan on spending many more hours in front of the tube. Gotta keep my average household viewing time close to the national average.

We should beat St. Louis badly tonight- they don’t have near the talent that we do. But they do have a number of scrappy veterans in Guerin, Tkachuk, and Weight. Those guys can hurt you at any time. I just don’t think they’re going to be able to keep up with Marleau, Michalek, and all of our other speedy forwards. I’m going to be paying special attention to the young D, namely Vlasic and Carle. I’ll try to take a pic or two on my phone, and have a report tomorrow.

Doug and I are here and the seats are great, as you can see…