Warning: original research and numbers to follow. If you think sports bloggers don’t have anything to contribute to society, click away quickly!

We’ve heard the stat before, only twice in NHL history has a team come from 3-0 down to win the series. According to a new script I wrote that extracts the data from hockey-reference.com, the actual number of 3-0 series is 176, not 151 as reported by Mark Purdy. I’m going from 1939, the first year I found that had seven game series. Before that, they did all kinds of crazy things like playing two games with the winner being the team with the most goals combined. And there was a team called the Maroons. That’s just weird. Anyway, that means the real odds are 2/176, or 1.14%. If someone can explain this discrepancy, please email me or post a comment.

However, now we have more information- the 1.14% is no longer accurate because of the 176 series in NHL history, only 53 of them (30.1%) actually went to game 5. The other 69.9% series were a sweep. Also interesting:

• 11 (6.25%) went to game 6
• 5 (2.8%) went to game 7

But now we can operate knowing the series is 3-1. According to my research, which agrees with this page, there have been 20 teams that came back from a 3-1 deficit (including the two I mentioned above). The odds have gone up, now we’re at 20 out of 239, which is 8.4%. Now we’re into very long shot territory, instead of kiss-your-ass-goodbyetown. So how to these teams do going forward?

• 87 series went to game 6 (35.4%)
• 38 series went to game 7 (15.9%)

The question I’m trying to answer is, what are the historical chances the Sharks win game 5? If you want to operate as if the games are completely independent events, we use the latter section, which is about 1-in-3. If we think that previous occurrences in the series will affect the Sharks’ chances in game 6, then we’re only talking about 1-in-5 (11 out of 53). Other interesting notes:

• Home teams win about 58% of the time in the playoffs (1839 of 3178)
• The team that won game 4 wins game 5 only 47% of the time (203 of 432)

It’s just a gut feeling (and I’m a homer) but I think it’s more towards the upper number than the lower. So flip a coin twice for the Sharks, and if it comes up heads both times, the series will still be alive Saturday morning.

I have to admit I was shocked that the Sharkies won tonight. This is all good for San Jose and nothing positive for Dallas, who have to get on a plane tomorrow and think about what they did wrong to deserve another trip to No. Cal. The Sharks have nothing to lose and should let it all hang out. No one expects them to win, everyone expects them to lose on Friday and the atmosphere at the Tank will likely be tepid at best.

Here the magic “if”. IF the Sharks put together two good periods at the Tank, get a lead and somehow, someway, the fans start to believe that maybe the Sharks can force another Game Seven to top the last Game Seven – the Tank will be the Stars worst nightmare. This is quite a leap and for this Sharks fans, I’m just happy to not hear the words “sweep” tomorrow when I go to work.

That flicker of hope is still alive. IF the Sharks win on Friday – and that is a HUGE IF….Dallas could be in for a New York Yankees type meltdown of epic proportions.

The Sharks managed to stave off a sweep tonight with a fairly gutsy victory in Dallas. I say “fairly” because there were still extended stretches where the Sharks played passively, and allowed the Stars to swarm. Nabby saved the Sharks’ bacon again several times, which is what great goalies do. Marleau had a second shorthanded breakaway, and again converted. I understand if people want to question his leadership style, but you can’t question his ability to score when his team most needs it.

Of course it wasn’t the decisive victory that we wanted to see, a clear sign that the Sharks may just beat the odds and come back from a 3-0 deficit. Morrow and Ribeiro are just as dangerous and effective as they’ve ever been. That puzzle is as of yet unsolved. Turco continues to come up big- there’s no solving that.  The Sharks give up too much time and space, and oftentimes do not press the pace when their own is threatened.

Can the Sharks continue to dance on the brink? Was tonight just a postponement of the inevitable, just the Sharks giving the home fans a chance to see the disappointment up close and in person?

Uncle Jonathan’s Corncob Pipe, I hope not.

Any way we can take a Plan B pill and abort that OT last night?  I think I’m still in a bit of shock.  I’m not really capable of holding a cogent thought enough to try and critique the third fall-from-the-front loss.  Of course I’ll watch game 4, because I’m masochistic like that.  As I’m sure you’ve all read in Mark Purdy’s column this morning, only twice in 151 chances has a team down 3-0 come back to win the series.  Who among us can make a case that the Sharks can make it 3 for 152?

Not me.

4:45pm – Plihal and Semenov in, Shelley, Rizz, Brown, Carle out. WHAT. THE. F%$K.

4:55 – Van Massenhoven blows a play dead he can’t see. Sharks jam it in a split second later. Thanks, meat.

5:00 – Sharks playing like they expect to have this game handed to them. It’s not. They are sucking big time.

5:02 – Sharks 1-6 in the faceoff dot. Ribeiro and Morrow are entering the zone and cycling at will. Tons of open ice for those guys.

5:03 – Nabby gets run by Ott, no call, no whistle either. Sharks do the shoving thing on Ott, no one drops. I’m sure Ott is smiling to himself right now.

5:05 – Sorry to sound like a broken record, but the power play sucks. A lot. At least JR and Rivet are playing like friggin wrecking balls. HUGE hit on Eriksson.

5:06 – Michalek misses the net on a breakaway. Boo-urns.

5:10 – Third power play worse than the first two. Sharks being outshot even though they have had 3 PPs, Dallas zero.

5:13 – Zero kills until now. Joe takes a dumb penalty in the faceoff dot. Obviously frustrated. Take out your frustrations on Ott’s skull. Just kidding. Sort of.

5:15 – Marleau shorthanded! Wow. Great shot over the glove, but there’s still more PK to do.

5:20 – Sharks escape the period up 1-0. Amazing luck.

5:35 – Start of period 2. My wife is making fun of me because I’m watching the game and blogging at the same time. At least my pocket protector is doing its job. In your face!

5:40 – Seto’s shot trickles through, just wide. I think it took 15 seconds to get from Turco to the post. I’m having heart palpitations.

5:42 – Nabby out of position against who? The Morrow line. Ribeiro is like 4’11, 120, and nobody thinks to put a body on him. I know he’s slippery, but I’m talking about when he’s standing still.

5:48 – Randy and Drew are cheering for the Sharks more obviously than I’ve ever heard them. A little weird. We’re back to lots of turnovers after a wide-open stretch, so I’m trying to think of things to write.

5:56 – Lehtinen, Ribeiro, Morrow 3-on-2. I feel like I’m repeating myself. Good thing Lehtinen (past Selke winner) can’t shoot.

6:00 – Another strong drive by Marleau. I think someone must have pulled the old shoelaces-on-fire gag before the game. Wow, another great chance by Michalek. Amazing! You crash the crease, sometimes there’s a puck there.

6:05 – Randy just said that “Semenov looks good tonight,” and Drew agreed. I’m in bizarro world. Haha, then Frankenstein takes a moronic penalty. How’s that crow taste? Like BRAINS.

6:o7 – I don’t think the Sharks PK could be more passive if they actually brought pillows out on the ice and laid down. But somehow, they get out of the period.

6:26 – a minute left in the penalty to start the period. Can Semenov just stay in the box the rest of the game? Great, now a 5-3. Am I watching a replay of game 2?

6:27 – Yes. I am. Tied.

6:31 – The way things are going, it appears to be just a matter of time before the Stars take the lead.

6:37 – Rivet, the Sharks player that is playing the hardest, is hurt. It’s a three stooges play- Campbell hit by Morrow, Campbell’s helmet hits Rivet in the head. Great, now more minutes for Semenov.

6:43 – 2-on-1 against, guess who pinched? Then Hagman sprung on a break, Ehrhoff hauls him down. Penalty shot.

6:44 – Great move by Hagman, Nabby makes a strong move of his own. Still 1-1. Whew.

6:47 – Should have been a momentum shift, but it’s not. Dallas promptly keeps it in the zone for a full minute straight, with seemingly a half-dozen quality scoring chances.

6:55 – Rivet is a gamer, he’s back. But the Sharks don’t seem to be taking inspiration or motivation from anything.

7:02 – Going to OT. Sharks dodge another bullet. Let’s hope they can come out a hell of a lot different than they did in the 3rd. If I could give the Sharks just one piece of advice, it would be to actually try and HOLD the blueline. Once the puck in in our zone, we’re sunk.

7:20 – OT has begun. Nabby is clutch. Another big save.

7:27 – Grier, jesus. He skates lazily to the near side, and the clearing attempt is cut off again. Point shot, to Ribeiro right where Grier was, and Grier skates away from Ribeiro without a care in the world. To the point again, and they score. What can you say? Maybe they deserved to win games 1 and 2, but they definitely deserved to lose tonight. Ron Wilson, start polishing your resume.

8:20 – I am now drinking.

Just to give you time to mark your calendars: I’ll be guest hosting the Teal Spiel again this Sunday night from 10-11pm on KNTS 1220AM.  I say Fred and not Howard because my head is full of worthless facts and I don’t have any charisma.  But I hope you bastards will call in (again) with some good stuff.  Or at least tell me I’m totally full of it, which is just as entertaining.

The series could be over either way by then, or we could be heading into game 7.  The possibilities are practically endless.  And by “endless”, I mean five.

The enigma that is our San Jose Sharks continued to baffle fans tonight at the Tank, as the Sharks fell to Dallas in Game Two. What I’m about to say doesn’t discount what the Stars did tonight or Friday, but to me it is the honest assessment of the game. The Sharks just plain beat themselves tonight and gave the game away. San Jose was the better team for most of the night, using their size to draw penalites and dominate most of the play – but Dallas just always seems to be there when the Sharks make a mistake and tonight they made a ton. Not being able to clear their own zone, including 16 give-aways (which seems to be a target stat when the Sharks lose) was the most telling. Every time the Sharks had a shot blocked or gave the puck away, someone from Dallas was there to do-si-do on our face.

Don’t jump in the lifeboats and start bailing out on this series. We’ve seen first hand that a team can not only come back from a 2-0 hole to win the series, but they can go on to the Stanley Cup Finals….yes, I’m talking about the Edmonton Oilers in 2006. Dallas is super streaky and riding on hustle, luck and hard work right now. I don’t for a minute believe that Dallas is the better team in this series, but they are experts at taking advantage of every opportunity they are given in front of the hottest goalie going in the playoffs. There is no supreme wisdom going into Game Three – just get it done. Don’t make glaring errors, take care of the puck, use your size. This isn’t over – not by a Longhorn.

A few other thoughts going into Game Three

– Patrick Rissmiller should find himself in the press box. That Grier/Goc/Rizz line was god awful against the Stars top line and this little experiment back fired for RW. Forming a 3rd line out of Seto/Mitchell/JR didn’t produce anything but a combined -3 and it put the Sharks in a position to have three scoring lines and one bad checking line – not a recipe for success. I would like to see Shelley back in Game Three – throwing the body around and grinding down the Stars, but I know I’m in the minority – but a line of Goc/JR/Shelley did pretty well in the regular season, so why not try it again. More likely we will see Brownie, but the Rizz has earned the scratch for now for being a big zero in the playoffs so far.

– Will RW pull a Keenan and sit Nabby in Game Three? I don’t think it’s that far fetched….we’ll see. Nabby hasn’t been on his game this series so far.

– In Game One, the guy who sits in front of us went to a box to watch OT, and the Sharks lost. Last night, Mike and I were invited into the Pepsi box for the 3rd period and, after we fell behind 3-2, we quickly retreated back to 124 – but the damage was done. It is now known as THE CURSE OF THE BOX.

I’ve predicted a Sharks win the last two games, so I’m going against karma. Dallas 9 San Jose 1…..Karma are you listening?

The Tank was, as I predicted, decidedly quieter than game 7, but that’s to be expected.  And it didn’t help that we played the Stars, a teams who plays a smothering 1-4 scheme that produces about a thousand neutral ice turnovers.  Dallas got two shots in the first, and one was a 85-footer by Steve Ott with 2 seconds left.  Not exactly a offensive fireworks show.

Good news is, even after the Sharks fell behind, they did not panic, and kept the pressure up.  I get extraordinarily frustrated and annoyed when the Sharks play prevent defense; I can only imagine how Stars fans felt in the 3rd.  Dallas didn’t even try to get any offense going- they just clamped down and chipped pucks out until the Sharks finally scored.  They registered a shot at 1:55, 9:13, and 16:18.  Not a lot of offense.  And the Sharks just wore them out.  I felt at that time it was more or less inevitable the Sharks would score, and they did.  I knew that OT was a crapshoot, and the Sharks just came up short.

Is is just me, or did Nabby not look good?  I thought the first goal was sort of weak- a shot from the point along the ice, and it’s the goalie’s job to cover the bottom of the net.  The puck didn’t sneak in by the post- it just went in.  The fact that he gave up 2 goals on seven shots is a tad misleading, but Nabby needs to make those saves the way Turco did in the first.

Game 2 will be another battle, but I’m not nearly as scared as I was against Calgary, which had an obvious matchup advantage in certain areas.  Maybe that’s why Dallas is so dangerous- they lull you to sleep and then take a picture of themselves teabagging you with a Sharpie-drawn mustache.

I look forward to doing that tonight.  And it better not be that saxophone player, although he’s good.  I’d much rather have the cracking tenor opera singer we had last round, so we can laugh and boo at the same time.

I’m hoping the Sharks can do a little role reversal against the Stars, playing a bit more of Calgary’s style since the Stars’ D are so banged up.  Somehow, it has to be done without the dump and chase.  Turco is a little bastard wizard out there when the puck comes his way.  If anything, a soft dump to the goal line, and start the grind in the corners.

I’m not too worried about the PK coming back- Dallas doesn’t have the same type of PP.  I am a little worried about the games being mind-crushingly dull though- Dallas has a way of slowing everything down.  Even though it’s the playoffs, I have a feeling after the pumped up game 7 we witnessed, we might get a fairly subdued crowd tonight.  But it’s Friday night at least.  Drink 8 beers and get rowdy.  See y’all there.

Good to see Mikey admitted that I got more right than him. How could you pick the Devils after what Sweet Lou did to them in the offseason? They are one more bad offseason away from being the Sabres – replacing Gomez and Rafalski with Zubrus and Vishnevski don’t cut it.

PITTSBURGH vs. RANGERS
Should be fun to watch and it will be a true test to see if the Penguins young players are ready to battle with the big boys, who are battle tested and have been on long cup runs before. Will Avery be able to get under the Pens skin like he did with the Devils? I would love to see a Pittsburgh/Sharks Stanley Cup finals, but I still think the Penguins are one year away from making major noise and might take their lumps from the Rangers in this series. RANGERS IN SIX.

MONTREAL vs. PHILLY
Were the Habs exposed in Round One or was Boston underestimated? I think it is the former and with the Flyers being on a roll, this is not a good match up for the Habs. Philly is more physical and has a good mix of vets and young players firing all at once – if Montreal comes out slow, they won’t be able to recover against the Flyers. Biron hasn’t been the liability people predicted and Price might not be ready for this much primetime this fast. FLYERS IN SIX.

DETROIT vs. COLORADO
It’s like a time warp and the bad blood surely hasn’t been forgotten. Colorado is physical enough to make this really difficult on the Wings and some have called Theodore’s performance in Round One the best in the playoffs thus far with a .940 save percentage and a 1.88 GAA – but now he has to face a team with a real offense, not a team that is really offensive (The Wild shouldn’t be allowed to make the playoffs in the future – I can’t bear to watch them stink up the joint again. What a terrible #3 seed). The Wings will be battered and bruised, but they should make the Conf. Finals. WINGS IN SEVEN.

SAN JOSE vs. DALLAS
If bad blood is the theme of the Western Conf. playoffs, then look no further than the final game of the season when the Stars and Sharks engaged in a old fashioned Battle Royale. I agree that the Sharks will have more room to operate and I’m not buying that Dallas is the potent offensive force some experts are making them out to be. I would like to think that Round One got the Sharks attention, and we know they will have mental lapses during the series – but my gut says this won’t last as long as Round One and the Sharks will solve early and get in his head. Dallas will win Game Three and that’s it. SHARKS IN FIVE.

Round Two – Are You Ready?