I’m not going to make as many picks as Doug in this space, I’m more into stats and other analysis. But I’m going to show Doug up here today, and actually pick an underdog. It’s all well and good to pick Dallas, Ottawa, and Carolina, but today I’m picking:

Columbus (+110)

Yeah! Read it and weep. The Kings are on a long road trip, lost to Minnesota last night, a bruising team. They had to travel late to Ohio, where the Jackets have had an extra day to prepare. Rick Nash is on an absolute tear right now, and L.A. is plagued with injuries. The Kings are 3-0 in their last three meetings, but at least if I’m wrong, I went out like a man.

GAME PREVIEW
The Blackhawks stole a win in Phoenix last night 3-1. I hope Mrs. Gretzky didn’t play the over! Bad news for the Sharks tonight is they like to play “win one lose win” with the boys from Chicago. This is bad news because the Sharks won the last one….so they are due to lose this one.

Great news that Cheechoo got locked into a 5 year contract extension last night. He has developed into one of the best finishers in the game and would have commanded big cash on the open market. Signing Nabokov is the more puzzling move – he has been wildly inconsistent and in and out of Ron Wilson’s doghouse. I thought Nabby was more tradebait than cornerstone in Doug Wilson’s eyes. I’m pleased with the signing and I hope it will allow Nabby to relax. Expect Doug Wilson to move Toskala to an Eastern Conference team in need of goaltending. I would be shocked if he moved Vesa to Vancouver, Edmonton or Colorado – he won’t pull another deal that could burn him in the end, i.e. Kipper.

THE GAMBLER 5-0-0 $500.00
Ottawa at NY Rangers
Man..I’m a house of fire. This one was an easy pick for me, it jumped right off the board. Ottawa owns the Rangers and shows up in the Garden for a big bounce back win. I still think the Rangers are pretenders and prime for a collapse near the end of the season. The walls could start to crumble tonight.

PLAY: Ottawa -165

As Doug mentioned, the Sharks lost again last night to Calgary in San Jose. The Sharks currently have 56 points, 8 out of the last playoff spot. The number 8 team, Colorado, has 64 points in 55 games, earning 1.163 points per game. At that pace, they’ll have 95.418 points in 82 games, so let’s say 95 points for the sake of argument.

95 points for the number 8 seed is a lot. Last year (meaning 2003-2004), the #8 seed in the west, Nashville, had 91 points. The year before that Edmonton had 92 points and squeaked in. But as I’ve mentioned in previous posts, the West has the two toughest divisions in hockey this year, and the 3 worst teams as well, so the disparity will be large. But 95 still sounds like a lot, so let’s drop that down 2 to 93.

The Sharks have 29 games left, and would need to earn 37 points in those 29 games to hit 93 points. That’s 18-11, or better than .620 hockey. That includes 4 games vs. Dallas, and 2 each against Detroit and Vancouver. Assuming they go .500 against the three best teams in the West – a pretty charitable assumption considering they are under .500 against their own division – that means they need to play almost .700 hockey against Phoenix (0-4 this season), Anaheim (3-3), and L.A (4-1), among all the other West teams.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying the Sharks are done. How are they going to pick it up, when all the other West teams are picking it up too, jockeying for position in the playoffs?

But I still bleed teal, so I’ll be watching the games. I’m going this week against Chicago and Dallas.

Too little too late for the Sharks last night as they fell at home to the Flames. The game wasn’t as close as the 4-3 final score indicated. I don’t even want to talk about it….let’s move on to something better like…

THE GAMBLER 4-0-0 $400.00
Say what you want, but picking winners is picking winners. Too bad I don’t have real money on these babies.

Edmonton at Colorado

What a great season series, with the Avs leading 3-2. The Avs love to open it up and the Oilers are like the “Diet Avalance” following the same mold of wide open skating, scoring and little defense and suspect goaltending. The Oilers are coming off a late night shootout win vs. the Ducks. Having to fly to Colorado and get it up for the Avs will be too much to ask.

PLAY: COLORADO -165

I mentioned recently that the Sharks have a ton of division games in late January and February, let’s see how the Sharks are doing:

• 1/21 at Kings : Win (OT) 4-3
• 1/24 vs. Kings : Win 4-1
• 1/26 vs Ducks : Loss 0-2
• 1/28 at Coyotes : Loss 2-6
• 1/30 at Stars : Loss (OT) 2-3
• 2/1 at Ducks : Win 6-4
• 2/4 vs Ducks : Loss 0-2

So that’s 7 points in 7 games, basically .500 hockey. We have two more division games before the Olympic break, versus Dallas and Phoenix, and even if we win both, we’ll only have 11 points in 9 division games. Given that the entire Pacific division is 4 games over .500 or better, playing roughly even hockey is not the way to gain ground for a playoff run. The Kings are seriously fading, but the Ducks and Stars are both playing well right now, and Phoenix has been suprisingly resilient this season. The Sharks have clearly frittered away a golden opportunity to make up ground in the West.

GAME PREVIEW
The Sharks face off in another important Western Conference game against the hated Calgary Flames, who crushed our Stanley Cup hopes and dreams in 2004. This Flames team is a little different, with some new faces that has messed with the chemistry that made them such a dangerous playoff team. There are some good things going for the Sharks. The Flames are riding a three game losing streak and have lost eight straight regular season games at the Tank. Let’s hope the boys can dish out some punishment tonight.

THE GAMBLER 3-0-0 UP $300 SMACKERS
Nashville at Dallas
I’m on a roll baby. Let’s not stop here. Speaking of rolls…The Dallas Stars were on a major one before the St. Louis Blues and their band of no names pulled their pants down. Dallas was clearly thinking about Nashville coming to town and let the aggressive young Blues team out work them. Dallas will pick up the pieces tonight at home vs. the Preds. Nashville hasn’t won in Dallas since March 2003….and that won’t change tonight.

PLAY: DALLAS STARS -165

THE GAMBLER 2-0-0
Thank you very much, I’m on a roll. Follow me on this next pick.

Carolina at Boston
Take the Hurricanes today to bounce back after a no win situation in New Jersey. This team has been waiting in Boston overnight after the Bruins had to fly home after losing in Montreal – so they essentially become the home team. Carolina is too good to blow this chance to take a game from Beantown.

PLAY: CAROLINA -160

GAME PREVIEW
Sharks are in another must win situation tonight against Anahiem….let’s face it, every division game is a must win at this point. Sharks must win and hope Vancouver can get pull one over on the Oilers so we have some hope going into the Olympic break.

Sharks must stop Selanne, who’s decided he can skate and score again. Thanks for showing up when you were in Teal – LOSER! Doug Murray needs to put Selanne on his ass and the Sharks must keep him from getting odd man rushes.

The Marleau line must provide a goal. The Ducks are going to key on the Thornton line, leaving our fate in the hands of Patty M. I predict a goal from Mr. Marleau in a breakout game.

Sharks 4 Ducks 2

THE GAMBLER – Season Record 1-0-0
If you’re a gambling man, look for the Devils to have a let down after a very emotional win last night vs. Carolina. The Leafs are desperate for a win and will catch the Devils at a weak moment. Toronto will jump up early and NJ won’t be able to recover. I also think Brodeur won’t be between the pipes. I’ll take Tellqvist vs. Clemmenson is the battle of the back-ups.

Here’s some stats for you.

Toronto is 2-0 vs. the Devils this season
Devils are 1-4 in their last five trips to Toronto
New Jersey is 2-7 on the second game of a back to back
New Jersey is 1-4 if their second game of a back to back is on the road after a home game.
Toronto is 5-1 in back to back games this season

PLAY: TORONTO -105 (should be a barn burner – like 6-4)

I listen to some sports/hockey podcasts, one I like is the Cheap Seats. They talk about all sports, but have a nice concentration on hockey, even though every single sports story this week is on Jerome Bettis. After the obligatory Super Bowl talk, they had a nice discussion about Alexander Ovechkin, and they mentioned there’s a video out there with some of his best highlights from the season. They mentioned video.google.com, but I couldn’t find it there. I found it on, you guessed it, youtube.com. Check it out, this kid is amazing.

That’s Doug’s first post here, welcome dude. Hopefully this will increase the frequency of Shaved Ice updates, and get some discussions going. One correction, the Sharks are 1-6 in shootouts this year. As Victor Chi noted in the Mercury today, Patrick Marleau is the worst on the team, going 0-5 in shootouts. The Sharks’ best shootout guy? Nils Ekman, who is 2 for 6, a whopping 33%. The best in the NHL right now is Jussi Jokinen from Dallas, 8 for 8.

I saw Jokinen in the shootout this past weekend against Detroit, and apparently he has done the same move a couple of times. He’s a right-handed shot, and comes at the goal a little bit from the right. He goes across the goal like he’s going to the backhand. He pulls it to the backhand, then quickly back to the forhand. At the same time he goes back to the forehand, he takes his left hand off of the stick, then uses his right hand to guide the puck back to the far right corner of the goal. Pretty cool, because the goalie goes from his left to right to follow Jokinen, and leaves that whole side open. Not completely unlike the famous Peter Forsberg move he did in the World Cup a number of years ago, so famous it even made a postage stamp in Sweden. Maybe I’ll have the balls to try it in a game myself, but I’ll probably trip and hit my head on the crossbar.