Okay, okay. Everyone who reads this blog on a semi-regular basis knows that I read Hockeybuzz. I just can’t help myself – I’m a sucker for a good rumor. Something caught my eye today that made my wheels spin, that the San Jose Sharks might be talking trade with Tampa Bay for the #1 pick in the draft – Stamkos. Sounds crazy right? Maybe not….think of what the Sharks can offer without totally gutting their core that would make Tampa Bay instantly better, get a rising young star who will be NHL ready next year and clear out the cash to keep Brian Campbell.

To San Jose: 2008 #1 pick (Steve Stamkos)
To Tampa Bay: Patrick Marleau (6.1M), Ryan Clowe (RFA), Christian Ehrhoff (RFA) and 2009 1st round pick.

Think about this from Tampa Bay’s perspective, they get one NHL All Star in Marleau to replace Richards, and two good young/affordable players in Clowe and Ehrhoff to rebuild their team for only about 10M in salary. The Sharks add a young stud for cheap (.9M for his first three years) and lose 9M in salary, enough to sign Campbell to a big deal and throw some cash around in the UFA market. Couldn’t you see Doug Wilson being the only person who could shed salary and add a superstar in the process? I’m not saying we should….but I’m asking – do you think we could?

On a smaller front, if this Stamkos business sounds a little too wild for your taste, what about DW going after Blake Wheeler, the former 5th pick of the draft in 2004 who turned down the final contract offer from Phoneix to become an unrestricted free agent. He is a college player, which DW loves, he is a big forward with a scoring touch – which we lost when Bernier was traded. Could Wilson sign Wheeler instead of trading for a draft pick? Possible. Very possible.

So the main man grier has spent the last couple of posts breaking down how the Sharks might sign, re-sign, trade, or ditch certain players in order to get better and (here’s the trick) meet financial goals. One of the big barriers we see as Sharks fans is the unwillingless/inability of the team to spend up to (or near) the salary cap, projected around $56M/team for next season. Personally, I’d be surprised if the Sharks even spend $50M, and as an amateur capologist myself, I’m always interested in that sort of thing.

On a higher level, Mark Cuban recently explored how salary caps affect the pro leagues, and there’s a specific point I’d like to highlight. National revenues (like TV deals) are counted as overall league revenues, but so are local revenues. If a specific market has some breakout growth, it benefits that market in that they get to collect the money, plus it raises the salary cap, putting pressure on other teams to spend more.

While the CBA was being negotiated, it was to the owner’s benefit to make their teams look as poor as possible. For teams that were owned by big companies that had their fingers in all sorts of hockey-related pies (like the Rangers, Kings, and Flyers) this is pretty easy to do. But now, I might argue that it’s in the owner’s benefit to make their teams look quite rich. For instance, if MSG (the company that owns the Rangers, Madison Square Garden and the TV channel that broadcasts the majority of Rangers games) just suddenly decided that the Rangers should really be making $60M more from the TV deal, that counts towards league revenues, and will have the end result of raising the cap for every team in the league by over a million dollars. The Rangers actually get the cash (sort of), and the other teams then have to spend it, or risk being less competitive.

I believe deals like the CBA do have a compression benefit on the league, in that the spending difference (and hopefully thus the quality) of the 30 teams isn’t as disparate as say, the Yankees (who spend $200M on the team) vs. the Pirates (who spend about a buck and a half). But after a few years, with the Rangers, Stars, Flyers, and Red Wings all making it deep in the playoffs, I don’t think this CBA enables all teams to be truly competitive, something the NHL sold as a benefit to the cap.

The question is, can the Sharks be part of that group? I think the Sharks are in that second tier, where good management and drafting can help push them over the top, sort of like the Penguins. As far as the Pens go, some combination of Malkin, Crosby, Stall, Letang, and Malone will no longer be with the team two or three years down the road. They will have to draft and trade well again, with the richest teams taking those players away- unrestricted free agency is at only 26 now, as opposed to 31 before the new CBA. In a few years, I fear we will see over half the teams closer to the salary floor than the salary cap, with the biggest market teams driving league money through growth in local revenue.

At THE STATE OF THE SHARKS, Doug Wilson made it clear that he never enjoys trading a player – but sometimes it is necessary to improve the team by either the salary cap gained or the player coming back in return. With the Sharks in a salary cap crunch, with several holes to fill and their own RFA’s to tend to, there are two key players and one whipping boy from last years team that I think suggest parting with in 2008-09. As fantasy GM, I left the Sharks at 45.75M after my suggestions of resigning J.R. (already happened), Boucher and Brian Campbell.

KYLE MCLAREN (2008 salary 2.5M) – McLaren isn’t the player he used to be, whether that is due to injuries or Ron Wilson’s coaching style that restricted his physical play or some combo of both – McLaren has been replaced by Murray. I know, I know – even in limited action, Big Mac led the Sharks in hits last year, but these were not the bone crushing variety we’re used to seeing as McLaren flies towards some poor sap, ready to pin him on the boards with a McLaren hip check. Those days appear to be over…and thus, so is McLaren’s term in San Jose. We will miss you and your yellow visor. Prediction: Traded for a 4th round pick on draft day.

MIKE GRIER (2008 salary 1.75M) – Grier was a disappointment last year, and for a guy who is supposed to be a driving force in the locker room and on the ice, there were times when us fans and Sharks broadcasters noticed Grier looked disinterested and unmotivated. Could he be traded for a young grinder/LW on a veteran hockey team looking for 3rd line help, perhaps back to Buffalo for Drew Stafford (0.9M) or to Washington for a big body like Dave Steckel (0.5M). I like Grier – he is my namesake after all – but I think the Sharks need to get meaner on the 3rd line. Prediction: Traded for a young player before July 1st.

MATT CARLE (2008 salary 3.0M roughly) – Part of me thinks that DW won’t give up on Carle, but he does have to shed salary if he keeps Campbell, and I’m inclined to think that Marleau and Cheechoo are sticking. Last year might be chalked up to second year blues and a bad relationship with Ron Wilson – and there enough teams out there in need of a young defensemen. I haven’t forgotten that Carle was on the All Rookie team in 2006-07, and I’m sure there are a dozen GM’s who haven’t forgotten either. He could even be moved in exchange for another young player, perhaps Philly would swap Scotty Upshall for Carle to improve their blueline. Prediction: Traded on draft day for a mid-1st round pick.

This clears about 7.3M in cap room, putting the Sharks at 38.4M, which would help DW’s efforts to resign his RFA’s and take an impact player in return here. There are other questions now, like which RFA’s are staying and which are going and how many rookies are going to be on the team next year. All this and then a look at what players might be out there via trade/UFA market.

zzzzzzzzzzzzz…….

Is it over yet?

Good lord – That was ninety minutes of my life I will never get back. What was a well intentioned opportunity for the Sharks fans to speak their minds and ask questions of the “brain trust” Doug Wilson and Greg Jamison – it turned into a free for all of lame questions and bizarre ramblings that left the panel puzzled and me utterly frustrated. While there were a few interesting tid-bits of information uttered between the cliches from DW and Jamison and awkward pauses from Cheechoo, I left early – I just couldn’t take it anymore. The Sharks must screen these questions – there were people babbling about the 49ers in the 80’s, musing about the power play and inviting Cheech to visit them in Gilroy. The voices in my head – make them stop. Next year, please screen the questions, make the fans write them down and have your moderator ask them.

Now for the interesting info.

1) As predicted, J.R. has resigned for a rumored one year/1M dollar deal. Excellent work by DW. In response to a question challenging whether or not the Sharks have been active in the free agent market in the past, his comments were that the Sharks take care of their own – case in point, resigning J.R. The Sharks have kept Thunder Joe, Marleau, Michalek, Rivet – all before they hit the open market. Looks like we can expect more of the same with DW locking up key pieces like Pavelski and Clowe….and I think Brian Campbell. DW also brought up how the Sharks have been active in the trade market….could this be a clue.

2) DW also stressed that everyone is responsible for Ron Wilson being fired, and that this would NOT be the only change made before next year. Someone won’t be back. Looks like that someone isn’t Cheechoo since DW was heaping praise on him all night – so he can sleep at night knowing he won’t be uprooted this summer.

3) DW dropped a major hint that the Sharks are looking for a hard nosed coach, a “butt kicker”. So, cross Melrose, Granato and my suggestion, Mike Sullivan, off the list. Wilson says they have a list of 40 candidates, people who have contacted them expressing interest including AHL, Junior, College and former NHL coaches. He emphasized that former NHL coaching experience is not a pre-req for consideration. The way he was talking, it seemed as if current assistant coaches, Tim Hunter and Rob Zettler, were no longer in the running. He never mentioned them once.

Unless there are some major changes in the format – I’m gonna skip this event next year. While interesting in spurts – overall the State of the Sharks was a snooze….

So I nailed the conference finals pretty well, only off by a single game combined in both series. Overall, I went 6-2 in the opening round, 2-2 in the conference semis, and 2-0 in the conference finals, for a combined record of 10-4. Respectable, but not transcendent.

As for the finals, I have only one hope, and my prediction reflects that hope. I want the series to go as long as possible. The conference finals were pretty anticlimactic, with both series jumping out to 3-0 leads. I just want to see some good hockey, with games in doubt until the end, which is more that I could say for the ultimate games in the last round.

I’d say the story of the playoffs so for has been the way the Pens have quietly played very good defense. With the 8,000 time Norris winner and old man river, everyone expected the Wings to be strong defensively, and they haven’t disappointed. But the largely unknown Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi, Kris Letang, and Hal Gill have played very well for Pittsburgh. And their only well known D-man (Gonchar) has played even better, despite being known as a scoreboard threat. I expect the series to be the most offensively exciting series of any we’ve seen yet this year. And I hope to the gods of hockey (that’s means you, Barry Melrose) that the series goes at least six.

Detroit in seven.

So grier gets the season ticket holder pack a couple of days ago, and lo and behold, the Sharks have raised ticket prices again. Not that much of a surprise I guess, but the real surprise is that it was over 10%. Again. We are in section 124, and our first year, 2005-2006, we paid $54/seat. Now, for the upcoming season, we will have to play $67- a 25% increase in only two years. Factor in the roughly $500 I paid for playoff tickets, and we’re talking well over 3 grand a year. I guess I can’t give my wife any crap for shopping now.

Because of this blog and my burgeoning radio career (which don’t exactly offset the cost), I’m almost obligated to renew. I suppose I could move upstairs, but as my mother has often said, a luxury once sampled quickly becomes a necessity. Also, we like the people we sit with, and I’d hate to ditch them. There’s really only one reason why SVSE raised prices- because they could. The market will bear it. I think the games last year were about 98% full, and there’s enough elasticity in the market to handle another 10% increase.

The thing that smarts almost more than the price hike is the fact that the Sharks were 27th in the league last year in payroll, and over $5M below the league average. Only Columbus, Nashville, and Phoenix spent less. That’s not going to change. So for our extra ten percent we’re likely to see some players run out of town (or not re-signed) because the Sharks don’t want to spend to the new cap limit, around $56M. I can imagine some very testy questions being posed tomorrow night in the Ice Insights discussion.

I’ve been formulating my offseason suggestions for GM Doug Wilson. There are several areas that need attention and, I think from his quotes in the paper and what Drew Remenda said in his interview on KNBR this week, us Sharks fans can expect change not only behind the bench, but in the roster as well. While I think a few changes are needed, Doug Wilson’s attention will likely be focused on evaluating which of the team’s current UFA’s and RFA’s will be back in Teal and which will be looking for new digs on July 1st. This is the first step to identifying this team’s core strengths and weaknesses – and along with this process must come the evaluation of which of the Sharks prospects might crack the roster. Who will be Mitchell and Segoguchi in 2008-09? Let’s start with the players who could walk away in July without any compensation, the unrestricted free agents – which the Sharks have ten.

The Sharks have 38M committed in salary for next season and we can assume the cap will be increased to around 56.3M. The Sharks have generally floated around 10M under the cap, so I think it’s fair to assume the team will only spend around 46M – so obviously there are many choices to make. I’ll try to keep track of the salary spent and how much the Sharks are under the cap, and who a player’s in house replacement might be. In no particular order.

PATRICK RISSMILLER – The Rizz has been an important part of our 3rd line the last two seasons, but we saw a considerable decline late this year. The Sharks lack of gritty 3rd line is near the top of my list of things to address this offseason and cutting ties with the Rizz is part of this process. A few guys on the UFA market are better options, and there may be one on this list or in the Sharks system – possibly T.J. Fox, Matt Jones, Tom Cavanaugh, Steven Zalewksi or Riley Armstrong. Good luck somewhere else, Rissmiller.

JEREMY ROENICK – J.R. has already implied he is coming back and I think, unless someone slips DW some crazy pills, J.R’s new deal should be announced shorty. I’m guessing one year/1M. Sharks cap now at 39M.

JODY SHELLEY – I love Shelley, but he didn’t win a single fight after going to the Sharks. He is still a great disturber and showed more offensive upside than most goons in the league, but Doug Wilson might be looking for a more functional agitator, someone like Sean Avery perhaps. Remember that little rumor of Bernier for Avery that was rejected by the Rangers – according to the NY Post, DW was ready to pull the trigger….I think Shelley isn’t coming back. Just a hunch.

ALEXEI SEMENOV – To me, this is easy. Goodbye. Get lost. The Sharks have better talent in their minor league system waiting to play the role of 7th d-man than Frankenstein, like Joslin, Spang or Brennan Evans. Save the cap room and cut ties with this waste of roster space.

SANDIS OZOLINSH – It looked like a genius move at first, but something happened down the road that derailed the Ozo-Comeback Train. He plummeted to the bottom of RW’s depth chart and there is nada chance that this reclamation project returns to Teal. Time to retire Sandis.

BRIAN CAMPBELL – I still believe that Campbell is going to resign with San Jose before the July 1st UFA bonanza begins. He wants to be loyal, he has friends here and the Sharks fans treated him like gold. While he isn’t the proto-type #1 d-man, those guys are hard to find. Unless the Bruins are willing to trade Chara for Marleau (not gonna happen) then Campbell is going to be back in Teal. He was willing to stay in Buffalo for around 5.5M, it was the term that turned him and his agent off. Campbell signs in San Jose, six years/36M. Sharks now have 45M in salary.

BRAD NORTON – Oh! My back! Never set foot on the ice, just cashed his checks and rehabbed his back. Seriously, I guess he has a major back problem and might need to retire. Good luck to you, Brad Norton – just not in a Sharks uniform.

BRIAN BOUCHER – Another guy who will be brought back. I think DW learned that not having a veteran backstop is not worth the risk. 1 year/750k. Sharks now at 45.75M.

DEMITRI PATZOLD- He was so good, the Sharks exposed him to waivers multiple times. Bye Bye Bye.

So, with J.R., Campbell, Boucher all back, the Sharks have to move to Taking Care of Our Own Part 2: Roster Casualties. With as deep a crop of talented RFA’s as anyone in the NHL, who is going to get traded to clear precious cap room? There are several candidates….but one step at a time.

Here’s a link to a recording of a Drew Remenda interview on KNBR.  Some interesting insights about the coaching vacancy, and other matters.

Step one has been taken. The long speculated, oft-debated coaching career of Ron Wilson has ended today in San Jose. While you can’t dispute the record and the success Ron Wilson has had behind the bench for the Sharks, he had taken this franchise as far as he was able to – season after season of playoff disappointment demanded that the Sharks head in a new direction. I think the timing of the decision shows a ton of class by the Sharks organiziation and Doug Wilson himself, to relieve RW in time for him to be considered for the head coaching openings across the league. Could he land in Toronto or Colorado? Possible….but not likely.

So, who will be the 7th coach in Sharks franchise history? Doug Wilson says that current staff Rob Zettler and Tim Hunter will get consideration, but that seems like a stretch to me. It’s quite possible those boys will be on staff until the new head coach is secured and, depending on their clout, both Zettler and Hunter could be “reassigned” within the organization. The list of candidates will make the rounds in the coming days. Pat Burns? Pat Quinn? Joel Quenneville? Bob Hartley? Dave Lewis? Paul Maurice? Larry Robinson? Dare we even say…Barry Melrose? Is it possible the Sharks will go way off the beaten path and hire a successful AHL coach? I would be suprised.

I’ve got a name for you – How about former Shark player and ex-Bruins coach, Mike Sullivan? He is a former teammate of Doug Wilson, having played in San Jose from 1991-1994 when he was claimed off waivers by the Calgary Flames. He has coached Joe Thornton in Boston and took a bum rap by GM Peter Chiarelli in the overhaul in Beantown. He took the Bruins to the playoffs in 2003-04, winning the Northeast Division title. Once Thornton got traded for that awesome package of Sturm, Stuart and Primeau – Sullivan’s team took a nose dive and the new GM wanted to start fresh, canning Sullivan in the process. After a little Google’ing, I found this collection of opinions from Boston sportswriters on Sullivan. It sounds like he was known as a players coach, has been described as “energetic and innovative” and was the type of guy in Boston who could get his boys to play hard night after night, sticking by his players and letting them play through the rough times. Sound like someone familiar? NOPE. Exactly. Mike Sullivan is everything Ron Wilson isn’t. He might not have the experience and definitely took some knocks for that in Boston, but this potential move smells of Doug Wilson. Someone unexpected and with a totally different philosophy. He has winning records as an AHL and NHL head coach, has International coaching experience as the head coach for the U.S. Men’s Team at the 2007 World Championships in Russia and was an Assistant Coach at the 2006 Olympics for the U.S.

I’d suggest keeping an eye on his name in the coming weeks. He is currently an assistant in Tampa Bay and, while there is certain to be debate, could quite possibly be the right man for the job in San Jose. He gets hired and Zettler (another former teammate and original Shark) and Hunter stay onboard to try and take this team to the next level we’ve all been waiting for. And remember…you heard it here first.

TSN reports that Ron Wilson has been fired by the Sharks. Let the speculation ramp up as to who the next coach will be, there are lots to choose from.