Offseason Issues 1-3; The Nabby Chronicles
May 22nd, 2009, 7:31 am
On our recent podcast, we get into our seven step offseason plan for the San Jose Sharks in what might be the most important offseason in franchise history.
Step One: Define the Budget. I believe the Sharks will be spending in the 53-54M range, operating about 3M under the cap – which is a change from this year being right up against it. I think the Sharks will cut salary, disposing of two current roster players in the 3-4M range to allow for the resigning of their own RFA’s, UFA’s and adding a few new faces. More specifics later on who goes…
Step Two: Change at the Top. As I’ve said before, and after stewing about this for a few weeks now, I don’t hold Marleau and Thornton accountable for the playoff failure. They did their part and the supporting cast didn’t hold up their end of the bargain. Dan Boyle? He bares no real blame here, he was the Sharks best player, no doubt. That leaves Nabby as the only player at the top who could find themselves on the block. So, does trading our starting goalie since 2000 who has 492 NHL starts for the Sharks make sense? What could we get in return?
Here’s a recap of five major trades involving starting goalies in the NHL. Check out the return value.
2008: Montreal trades Huet to Washington for a 2nd round pick.
2007: San Jose trades Toskala to Toronto for a 1st, 2nd and 4th round pick.
Nashville trades Vokoun to Florida for a 1st and two 2nd round picks.
Buffalo trades Biron to Philadelphia for a 2nd round pick.2006: Florida trades Luongo to Vancouver for Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen and Alex Auld.
Looking at these five trades, I would place Nabby’s trade value on par with Vokoun’s. Their career numbers are similar but the thing working against Nabby’s value would be the one year left on his contract. So, I’m guessing the likely return for Nabby would be a 1st round pick. Is that enough? If he’s traded (and that is a GIANT IF because Nabby would have to approve any deal since he has a no-trade clause) who the hell is going to play in net for a team that has the Stanley Cup finals as their goal?
Khabibulin? Manny Fernandez? Martin Biron? Dwayne Roloson? Ray Emery? Arturs Irbe?
See what I’m getting at? There is no one on the market that is an upgrade over a motivated Nabokov going into a contract year. The Sharks have three red-hot goalie prospects waiting in the wings to take over in 2010: Greiss just had a solid year as the full time starter in Worcester, carrying what is an otherwise mediocre AHL team to the 2nd round of the playoffs with his solid play in net. Alex Stalock was a First-Team All American this year and took his Minnesota Duluth team to the NCAA West Regionals. His .981% save percentage in the tournament speaks of his big game ability. Tyson Sexsmith won 39 games for the Vancouver Giants in the WHL junior league and played great hockey before his team lost in the Western Conf. Finals to the eventual champion Kelowna Rockets. The Sharks have invested roughly 2M in these three players combined.
One of these three guys is the future in net for the Sharks (my early money is on Stalock, just a hunch) but none of them are ready to be a full time NHL goalie. For now, dumping Nabby for the sake of making a change doesn’t make much sense to me.
One more year of Nabby. Enjoy him while he lasts – then with him and Marleau both UFA’s – if the team doesn’t achieve the goal of appearing in the Cup finals – we’ll see the dramatic changes at the top.
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I generally agree with the logic. Nabokov is going to stay unless they sit down and decide he’s the extra piece in the puzzle and they manage to sign Biron, which will be a wash in skill that still may result in the extra pick in the draft and if it’s a first round pick, I’m fine with that.
I don’t know where the logic behind spending under the cap comes from. This could be the last year Sharks have the Stanley Cup window open, and I think they’ll go out and spend once again – that’s my expectation at least, and we’ll find out in a few months.
If Nabby stays, I hope we don’t go the one goalie route, but will test one of the young goalies coming through the system and perhaps we’ll get a new Hiller/Varlamov/Mason in there who can replace Nabby a year from now when he returns to a big a contract in the KHL instead of having have to sign a veteran free agent goalie.
Now off to listen to the podcast.
Of course, saying the Sharks won’t spend to the cap is pure conjecture, but I think it’ll happen for two reasons:
1. The economy is in the tank, and the Sharks earned fewer playoff dollars this year than they have the past four years.
2. The Sharks have traditionally not spent to the cap, and failed spectacularly the one year they did spend a lot.
Correlation isn’t causation and all that, but I’d be surprised if they have the same payroll in 09-10.
I agree with Ivan that they’ll spend again next year. Your point about playoff games is only one piece of the puzzle. Are any ticket, parking, or concession prices being raised? If so, more money in a cap-static world.
Also, last year had the financial windfall of Blake and Boyle jerseys. You’re probably not going to get another boost like that this year, but if there’s any year to give it one more all-out financial effort, this is it.
If they miss, then don’t re-sign Nabby or Marleau. Dump Michalek and Vlasic, and go into rebuild mode for 2010-11. That’s when payroll will be slashed if the team disappoints again.
This stuff surrounding Nabokov assumes that the front office actually believes it needs a goalie of Nabokov’s calibur to win in the playoffs. Chris Osgood and Nik Khabibulin are still playing, while Tim Thomas, Marty brodeur, and Roberto Luongo are watching. If Nabokov and Cheechoo are turned into, say, Ilya Kovalchuk and Brian Boucher, is that an upgrade or a downgrade?
Personally, I think unless the Sharks can pick off Luoungo in the current Vancouver hubub over his “poor” playoffs, the Sharks should simply add more firepower with the money saved at goaltender by trading Nabby. As noted, though, that all depends on Nabby waiving his NTC.
Excellent point there Ruben. Out of all goalies still playing, only Ward has played stellar, but only in the first two rounds. While there is still time, this doesn’t appear to be playoffs that will be stolen by any one goalie – on good teams everyone contributes. Superstars are being superstars when it matters most, and not just trying to average a point a game, and the rest of the team is also chipping in.
The remaining goalies have quite a resume: Five Stanley Cups, Conn Smythe trophy (Ward), Two William Jennings awards (Osgood), 10th all-time in wins (Osgood).
These guys aren’t Nabby’s caliber – they are above him. Wouldn’t you pick any of the four remaining guys over Nabby in a playground line up if you were playing in a big game?
Stanley Cups=Great team, not necessarily great goalie
Conn Smythe=Hot streak in the lat 16 games of the season
Jennings Awards= Fair enough, Osgood did have those two good years.
Goalie wins= IMO about as good for measuring goalie skill as height… it counts for something. I mean, no one grades the team captain on “wins”.
My point is, if I ranked the goalies in the league top to bottom for one Game 7, none of these guys would be top 5, and maybe Fleury would be top 10. In a big game I would take Nabby over Osgood any day. Nabby and Ward are a toss-up. Ill take talent over “playoff moxie” any day. Shoot, last year Nabby was considered a superb playoff performer. Take a look at Osgood’s playoff stats with the Blues, where was that playoff moxie? Except for this year and 99-00, Osgood has been utterly average as a playoff goalie.
Unfortunately, grading the calibur of goalies is at the same stage that medicine was in the 18th century. People knew stuff, but still used leeches to cure fevers. GM’s can recognize goalie fundamentals, but still cling to wins as “what matters.” Right now, it is one of the huge market inefficiencies in the game, and DW has and should continue to take advantage of it.
Am I the only one that was expecting to see some action by now, be it a signing or a release?