2010 Draft Pick Status or What DW Has As Ammo
February 20th, 2010, 11:21 am
With 24 hours to go before the USA/Canada brawl in Vancouver, my thoughts are still on trade deadline day. As I scrolled through the ESPN rumor mill and noticed the reported price for Predators dman Dan Hamhuis (a scoring forward and a late 1st/early 2nd pick) I began to wonder about the Sharks 2010 draft pick situation and what kind of bullets Doug Wilson had left to fire at deadline day. Here’s the skinny, from what I can tell:
1 – 1st round pick
0 – 2nd round picks (we traded our own to Ottawa for Heatley, we traded Buffalo’s to Carolina for Wallin)
1 – 3rd round pick
0 – 4th round picks (we traded our own to Tampa Bay for Dan Boyle)
2- 5th round picks from Carolina (in Wallin trade) and Ottawa (in Heatley trade). Our own was traded to LA in 2008 to draft junior d-man Samuel Groulx (39 points in 58 games in the QJMHL with two teams)
0 – 6th round picks (we traded ours to Dallas in 2009 so get a 7th round pick to select Marek Viedensky, 46 points in 49 games in the WHL with two teams)
0 – 7th round picks (we traded ours to Buffalo in the Craig Rivet deal)
So, if I’ve done my math right – and that’s a major question mark – the Sharks only have four draft picks currently in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. Not good news for a team that’s been criticized for having a lack of quality prospects in their system. So if you’re Doug Wilson, are you willing to trade that 1st round pick to get a Dan Hamhuis or a Tomas Kaberle? It’s got to give one pause…
Like I said yesterday, I’m willing to take the gamble, especially since it’s likely Setoguchi could fetch you that 1st rounder in the offseason if that’s the road you decide to go, but it’s always good to take a hard look at what Doug Wilson has to play with here. He’ll likely balk severely at parting with this first round pick, and it’s entirely possible we could see him sell off someone like Torrey Mitchell for a 2nd rounder if he thinks Jamie McGinn can do the same job – which he probably could.
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Your point is well taken Doug…
There is always our 2011 picks too! Plus the extra 6th/5th round we just got for Shelley. But I think we got a lot for those picks considering. We’ve been a regular playoff team for several years and definetly an elite team in the regular season.
I like your call to not trade away the kid’s trust fund so to speak, but I’ll feel alot worse if we don’t win a cup in this window in the light of all the picks and talented players we’ve already given up.
Even though the Ducks are only two points away from the 8th seed, many believe that they’re intent on rebuilding and will entertain trading Scott Niedermayer. If Niedermayer becomes available, there certainly won’t be a shortage of teams vying for his services. With Chicago clearly gunning for the Cup this year, some speculate that Stan Bowman will pull out all the stops to acquire Niedermayer. If the Hawks get Niedermayer and San Jose stands pat at the deadline because Doug Wilson doesn’t want to give up draft picks, are you going to feel good about the Sharks’ chances heading into the playoffs?
In the salary-cap era, the lifeline of all NHL teams is the draft because they can’t just spend their way into contention. Understandably, teams covet their draft picks. However, for those who are not as adept at evaluating, drafting and developing talent, a better option might be to trade their draft picks for proven talent whenever the right opportunities present themselves.
I bring this up because, upon reviewing Doug Wilson’s draft record from 2003-2007, the Sharks seem to be rather mediocre in this department. Here’s a look at who DW drafted in rounds 1-4 and which players he could’ve chosen but passed on:
2003
RD1a: Milan Michalek (bypassed: Dion Phaneuf, Jeff Carter)
RD1b: Steve Bernier (bypassed: Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Corey Perry)
RD2a: Josh Hennessy (bypassed: Shea Weber, David Backes)
RD2b: Matt Carle (bypassed: Shea Weber, David Backes)
RD3: NO PICK
RD4: NO PICK
SLEEPER – RD7: Joe Pavelski
2004
RD1: Lukas Kaspar (bypassed: Mike Green)
RD2: NO PICK
RD3: Thomas Greiss (bypassed: Johan Franzen)
RD4: Torrey Mitchell (bypassed: Ryan Callahan)
SLEEPER – NONE
2005
RD1: Devin Setoguchi (bypassed: Anze Kopitar)
RD2: Marc Eduoard Vlasic (bypassed: Paul Stastny)
RD3: NO PICK
RD4: Alex Stalock
SLEEPER – NONE
2006
RD1: Ty Wishart
RD2: Jamie McGinn (bypassed: Milan Lucic)
RD3: NO PICK
RD4: James DeLory
SLEEPER – TBD
2007
RD1a: Logan Couture
RD1b: Nick Petrecki
RD3a: Timo Pielmeier
RD3b: Tyson Sexsmith
SLEEPER – TBD
It’s certainly not easy to evaluate and project talent at the NHL level and hindsight’s always 20/20. Nevertheless, it’s clear what DW’s strength is. Despite these somewhat lackluster draft classes, DW still managed to trade many of these “prospects” for tremendous NHL talent. My point is, since trading is DW’s strong suit, forgoing draft picks in favor of acquiring proven NHL talent geared to help the Sharks win the Cup now isn’t that big of a sacrifice.
On the whole, it is incredibly difficult to draft top level talent anywhere outside of the top 10 or 11 picks in the draft consistently. Except for 2003, that year was historically stacked.
Compared to other teams, the Sharks are actually incredibly adept at drafting, particularly considering their draft position. I believe Fear the Fin (or was it you guys while at sharkshockeyanalysis.com?) that looked into the Sharks drafting abilities. The drafting allows the team to go top heavy with their salary and to swap their decent to good assets (Carle, Cheechoo, Bernier, Michalek, Stuart) for prime assets (Thornton, Heatley, Boyle).
This structure is going to have to change to keep the team together. Pavs, Seto, and in a few years Greiss, Stalock, McGinn, Demers etc. are going to deserve Clowe/Michalek like contracts. The team can only sustain so many star-level contracts at a time, and I don’t see Thornton, Heatley, or Boyle going anywhere (nor Marleau for that matter). It will be interesting to see the salary structure the team takes on at that point, because there are really only two models: top heavy with youth/cheap grinders or maybe a couple of stars with more balance. I actually prefer the top heavy model if the team can draft well (which the Sharks do) but what happens when you don’t have anymore Michaleks, Berniers, or Clowe’s to get rid of? What if all you have are Joe Pavelski’s and productive Seto’s making $3-4mil? Is that worth losing 1 Dany Heatley quality player?
Of course drafting top level talent is incredibly difficult. If it wasn’t difficult, then everybody could do it. The Sharks had four picks within the first two rounds of an “historically stacked” 2003 draft class (as you said) and Doug Wilson came away with Michalek (#6 – good but not great player), Bernier (#16- disappointing underachiever), Hennessey (#43 – bust) and Carle (#47 – inconsistent offensive d-man). If Wilson was “incredibly adept at drafting,” wouldn’t he have taken Parise, Getzlaf, Kesler, Richards, or Perry instead of Bernier, and Weber instead of Hennessy? If Wilson was “incredibly adept at drafting,” he certainly wouldn’t have wasted a 1st round pick on Kaspar who’s completely out of the NHL at the age of 24.
I’m not saying that Wilson is a bad GM. He’s been a great GM who’s cultivated a winning culture/structure with the Sharks. The way he’s pulled one rabbit after another out of his magical trading hat has spoiled us rotten. But his drafting track record leaves a lot to be desired.
Not really, I said he was “incredibly adept at drafting,” not a “crystal ball reader.”
How about instead of comparing DW’s picks against the entire field ,why not compare his picks against each other individual team? That is probably more fair, as we should compare DW against his peers and not some omniscient god.
Lets take the Devils for example, since you point out that DW “missed” on Parise, and the Devils were so smart to take him . From 03 to 07, the players the Devils have drafted that have played in the NHL are:
Parise
Travis Zajac
Nic Bergfors
Mark Frasor
Vladamir Zharkov (33 games)
Petr Vrana (16 games)
Pierre-Luc Létourneau-Leblond (8 games)
Tyler Ekford (3 games)
Patrick Davis (9 games)
G Jeff Frazee and D Matt Corrente are a couple of better picks who are still prospects, probably close in value to Tomas Greiss and Nick Petrecki but less upside. Everyone else hasn’t made it to the pros and/or is a non-factor 4th line type prospect (think Steve Zalewski). Of the guys with their games played in parenthesis, none are considered to be better than bottom line grinders, no up and coming Logan Couture’s in that group.
So, yes, the Devils got Parise. But would your really trade the Devils 03-07 draft class for the Sharks’? After Parise, Zajac and maybe Bergfors, there isn’t an impact player there. While the Sharks have not drafted a Parise-type player (and they had the opportunity with Michalek, when most thought they would nab Ryan Suter), they have drafted 2 top 6 forwards (Milan/Seto), 2 prospects that look like top 6 guys (Couture/McGinn), 2 good 3rd liners (Mitchell, Bernier), 1 top pair dman (Vlasic, though you may disagree on that one), two middle or bottom pair Dmen (Carle/Wishart), one potential top pairing dman (Petrecki), 1 quality NHL backup (Greiss) and one potential NHL starter (Stalock).
The Devils? One superstar, a good 2nd liner (Zajac), and a bunch of maybes and washouts. Bergfors would be behind McGinn on our depth chart. No legit defensman development (Sharks have already developed 3 with another on the way). Greiss would be their #1 goalie prospect.
There are maybe only 7-10 teams that DW wouldn’t win this battle outright with, and maybe 3-4 where draft position isn’t the prime result for not winning. At the very least, DW and his scouts are in the top 10 for drafting abilities.
So I guess a little left to be desired, but not that much.
Oh yeah…
USA! USA! USA!
I wonder if Puck Daddy (who called out Joe Thornton for having ONLY one assist in the first game) is going to call out Brodeur, who was IMO primarily responsible for 2 goals in the game and had a handful of brutal turnovers while playing the puck.
Naw, i’m sure he’ll call out Thornton again for being on the ice for the empty net goal at the end, even though Corey Perry was the guy that got beat by an outstanding play by Kesler. I like his writing most of the time, but he falls into a lot of the MSM cliches.