DOH 101 – Pick Apart the Carcass
May 26th, 2010, 8:55 pm
Mike and Doug continue the discussion they began on ChompTalk last Sunday, speaking of the Sharks demise at the hands (wings?) of the Hawks, and Philadelphia’s chances to triumph in the finals. But most importantly, the Dudes start the important due diligence of examining each of the actors that may not be back next year, starting with Doug Wilson, Todd McLellan, Patrick Marleau, and Evgeni Nabokov
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New poll question – Patty or Nabby?
I have a suspicion of where everyone might go with this one (Even Mark Purdy seems to have changed his tune from when he said to you guys earlier in the year that Nabby would be the one to keep without question).
P.S. Another great show Dudes – I make that 101 in a row now!
Nabby is the easy choice here. It’s hard to turn your back on Patty given the year he’s had.
Nabby looks over his shoulder too many times in key situations. You need a goalie that is in control of his game….doesn’t matter if you’re playin’ Edmonton or Detroit.
McLellan needs to change his goaltending philosophy next season as well. You can’t have a dependable back-up in the playoffs if you haven’t seen enough of him during the season.
Dudes,
Everybody is saying the Hawks are the class of the league for a while now. I don’t really buy it. If you look at their cap for next year, they’re already over with only 14 players signed. They’re going to have to gut depth somewhere to get under the cap. Do we believe they’ll be able to get rid of both Huet and Campbell to clear space? I know Campbell’s contract sucks, but he’s still hugely important to their defense.
I think they’re going to come back to earth very quickly. They’ll be top heavy just like every other team with it’s stars on real contracts.
The could buyout Huet, or more likely, just pay his ass $5M to play in the minors. They will likely have to trade Versteeg, Byfuglien, or Sharp, and keep the other two. Then make QOs to the RFAs, and pick up some spare parts. With their goalie, top 4 intact and their top 6 mostly so, I don’t see a dropoff coming soon.
Good points Mike, but what if in this last series vs. the Sharks the Hawks didn’t have one or two of either Bufuglien, Sharp, or Bolland… I think we might see a totally different series result… Buff and Bolland had more goals combined (6), in that series than Hossa, Toews, Kane and Sharp…
Chicago’s role players have been essential in this PO’s for the Hawks. So if even a couple of those guys are gone next year it could tip the scales towards the Sharks… or another Western team for that matter.
The problem wasn’t their top 6 (though very good) the problem was their bottom 6. We didn’t match up with them down the roster, but we could match up our top 6.
Even if they bury Huet, that frees up 5 mil and they’ll still need 7 players with no scratches.
They’ll essentially come back down to earth. I’m not saying they’ll suddenly suck, I’m saying we’ll match up better against them than we did this year. We had 3 1 goal games in that series. Say they trade Byfuglien… how do those games turn out then?
I tried playing with the numbers on capgeek. I don’t see how they deal with Huet without buying him out, which is a 1.875 cap hit for the next 4 years.
When the Hawks win, can you imagine what Niemi is going to ask for? A cup winning goalie with the stats he put up? He has to get at least what Hiller is making, $4.5 mil/year. I would think Hjalmmerson is gonna get at least $3.5mil.
With that on the books, Byfuglien, Sharp, and Versteeg have to go. Sopel would have to be traded somehow. And they would have to replace all those guys with minimum salary guys. Can they make the playoffs with Kane-Toews-Hossa and rookies and scrubs? With Kieth/Seabrook/Campbell/Hjalmarrson and the equivalent of 2 Jay Leaches? Perhaps, but that is not nearly the dynasty people are thinking the Hawks are going to be. Of course, they will likely win the cup, so its worth it, but Im not so worried about them in the future barring some incredibly savvy moves.
See if anyone can do better…
2010-11 SALARY CAP CALCULATOR
2010-11 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
PLAYER BONUS CAP HIT
FORWARDS
Jonathan Toews — $6,300,000
Patrick Kane — $6,300,000
Marian Hossa — $5,275,000
Dave Bolland — $3,375,000
Kyle Beach ($325,000) $1,200,000
Tomas Kopecky — $1,200,000
Troy Brouwer — $1,025,000
* 3rd liner — $750,000
* 3rd liner — $650,000
* 4th liner — $500,000
* 4th liner — $500,000
* 4th liner — $500,000
* 4th liner — $500,000
DEFENSEMEN
Brian Campbell — $7,142,875
Duncan Keith — $5,538,462
Brent Seabrook — $3,500,000
* Niklas Hjalmarsson — $3,250,000
* #6 Defenseman — $650,000
* #5 Defenseman — $600,000
* #7 Defenseman — $500,000
GOALTENDERS
* Antti Niemi — $4,500,000
* Huet (Buyout) — $1,875,000
* Backup Goalie — $600,000
BUYOUTS
Huet
LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS
NONE
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER SIZE 23
SALARY CAP $56,800,000
PAYROLL $56,231,337
BONUSES $325,000
CAP SPACE $893,663
At best, they may be able to keep one more of Sharp/Buff/Versteeg, and this is assuming they can trade Sopel. That is still a playoff team, but Stanley Cup favorites? I don’t know
They could waive Huet and send him to the minors and just pay him 5 million to stay there.
Still, that only frees up 2 mil, not a whole lot they can do with that.
According to Bettman the cap is expected to rise by about 2 Million, I think that’s great news for shark fans.
Dudes, Doug Murray an untouchable? Please explain. For being arguable the worst Dman in the playoffs and constantly exposed by the young/fast forwards that are all the rage in the NHL, he wasn’t a name that came to mind in that category.
I think in general Sharks fans are too hard on our own D-men. It’s tough to be patient, but it takes guys at this position a longer time to develop. When I look at some of the former homegrown Shark Ds around the league… Brad Stuart, Matt Carle, Josh Gorges, Christian Ehrhoff, Jeff Jillson (kidding on that last one), it gives me a lot of confidence in the front office’s ability to draft/scout solid NHL defensemen. Vlasic and Murray have both gotten much, much better (Murray especially).
Untouchable? Agreed, not a name that comes to mind. But it would take an awful lot for me to be OK with losing him.
That’s a fair point about development time for Dmen. Carle, in particular, I thought was given up on too early… until you realize he brought in Boyle and then everything is ok. Josh Gorges has been an incredible surprise, a great success story. I never thought he would be much better than a good #5 Dman.
Vlasic is going to be a great defenseman, IMO (if he isn’t one already). Murray… I just don’t see much upside left in him. If we are honest with our players, what is he really? A good #3-4 guy? Now, that is still a quality player (though at $2mil/yr, not exactly a bargain). But he is kinda like the Nabokov of defenseman. He has one tool that everyone loves (Murray/hits as Nabby/glove). He gets dis-proportionally exposed by good teams in critical situations. If there is one area of the team that could use some improving from the outside, it is top pairing Dman that rides shotgun with Boyle.