DOH 153 – First of Many Offseason Musings
June 2nd, 2011, 7:43 am
The Dudes begin to tackle the many offseason questions that surround the Sharks- the coach, the D, the third and fourth lines. Of course, hockey is still being played, so those topics are addressed as well.
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Tags: San Jose Sharks
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That podcast was much needed, Dudes.
Interesting discussion about Doug Murray. I’m almost at the point where I think it is time that Vlasic and Boyle play together, with Vlasic sitting on PPs and Boyle sitting on PKs.
Right now, it appears the Sharks haven’t commited to a traditional checking line or a scoring 3rd line. Torrey Mitchell, IMO, an outstanding checking line forward. You look at his advanced stats, and he is never on the ice for a goal against. But that is not Pavelski’s role, nor is it Kyle Wellwoods. So, do the Sharks trade a forward and let go Wellwood for a Raffi Torres/Malhotra type line to match up with Mitchell, or do you demote Mitchell to babysit the 4th line and get another scoring forward? You can win both ways (the Wings certainly go with 3 scoring lines), but I think you have to commit to one.
Great podcast fellas,
Murray provides more than his stats indicate. His physical presence on the ice has an affect on the opposition that’s hard to quantify. Plus as Boyle’s partner he makes up for the lack of size that Boyle has. The book on Boyle has always been he struggles with large forwards. With Murray on the ice with him that alleviates this issue.
Honestly as I look at this roster I don’t see how it realistically CAN get better. Ian White was a major upgrade this year and keeping him should be one of the top priorities. Apart from that I don’t see a player, who will be realistically available, that would be an improvement. If either of you do I’d love to hear who your thinking of?
This team WAS good enough to win the cup. And as Mike said in the podcast it takes a lot of luck and bounces to win it all. And at the end of the day that’s what gave Vancouver the edge. If we were playing Boston right now in the final, I think we’d all be expecting our first championship. It sucks but I really think it’s true.
The more I consider this offseason – minor retooling seems the only way to go.
Also. Do you realize that Double Shifts is the-one-who-shall-not-be-named?? Hopefully you guys can manufacture up some comedy gold with his “visit” and not let the troll crap on the carpet…
Good podcast,
I think Murray’s Law of Physics makes him more valuable than the numbers show, he is one of the few people in the entire league that people go out of their way NOT to check.
As for Winnipeg I think the Whiteout would be a cool name for them, I heard some rumblings about TSNE trademarking the name already and it would be a throwback to their Jets’ days and give them plenty of money to be made off new jerseys.
In regards to hockey in Seattle. Seattle definitely has enough fans to support an NHL team the only problem is that Key Arena is complete garbage for hockey you can only fill 2/3rds of the arena because the ice actually extends into the lower bowl. Now if the city wanted to get an NBA team back they would likely build an arena that would support and NHL team and an NBA team and would hold both. At the moment that seems like a pipe dream though as the city is still paying off Quest and Safeco I believe.
If for a moment we just assume that the Sharks make resigning Ian White a priority I think the glaring hole is actually for a shutdown defenseman. I think it’s fair to think of White, Boyle and Demers as our 3 offensive D-men, and Murray and Vlasic as the defensive guys. But I do think Murray and Vlasic do a respectable job at that we don’t have a D-man we can turn to and say, “you need to make this line a non-factor tonight.” Those kinds of players are few and far between but I do think there are some options out there that start to atleast fill the void. It’s fodder for another day but a few names to throw out, Shane O’Brien, Eric Brewer, Kevin Bieksa, Scott Hannan. Oh yea, and just for fun, Kevin Bieksa.
Er… kinda killed my own joke there by repeating Bieksa twice…
The Dudes used GVT, which attempts to glean overall value provided. Whatever unique things Murray brings to his position as a powerful hitter or intimidating force would theoretically show up in those advanced statistics. We won’t be able to see how much it improves Murray, but Doug Murray, the hockey player, is a bottom pairing defenseman according to GVT.
Of course, GVT is only one stat. And it assumes (along with other advanced stats like Corsi) that the most important thing a defensman does is prevent shots (not goals, stopping the shots are the goalies responsibility). On a micro level, there are many situations that this doesn’t hold, but in general less shots means less goals.
So, it comes down to, do you trust the crude stats or eyes looking through teal colored glasses? I think it is obvious where I come down on it, but I’ll admit that hockey stats aren’t nearly where something like baseball analysis is today.
“So, it comes down to, do you trust the crude stats or eyes looking through teal colored glasses?”
I’m not sure who you were responding to in your whole comment… However, the point I am trying to make is that it would be a mistake to try and evaluate a player like Dougals Murray exclusively on stats or a “gut instinct” alone. Stats are great but cannot measure everything.
If pure stats could predict everything then no team have scouts.
And black swans wouldn’t exist.
I agree with tom here. Murray is hard to evaluate with stats like that.
Lets take an example:
Player A blocks 30% of all shots that comes towards the net.
Player B hits the player that would have made the shot making him exausted, so instead of making the shot, he in 40% of the cases just stands there or maybe goes to change. To sum up – In 40% of the cases player B will prevent the puck from ever beeing shot.
The result is for player A that 30% of the shots doesnt reach the goal and for player B that 40% of the shots doesnt reach the goal.
This was just an example to show that more can be done that might not end up in the stats. (Example is taken out of thin air with no real data of any kid)
So..
I think Murray is a player that will let boyle play the way he needs to play to be good. Without Murray, boyle would have a harder time making his skilled plays on the ice.
@Tom There were a couple of comments made towards evaluating Murray, it was jsut a general statement meant to encompass a topic we were discussing and not directed to anyone in particular.
As far as Murray’s effect on Boyle, Boyle did just fine with a far less physical defenseman when he was paired up with Brad Lukowich.
The main point I was trying to make was that it would be a mistake to evaluate anyone with just stats, but that they do a great job at taking away biases that even scouts have. Murray, despite having the benefit of guys being intimidated by his size, blocking a lot of shots, and hitting a lot of people, STILL happens to be on the ice for more shots against than anybody on the Sharks but Nic Wallin. On top of that, he provides approximately what a random AHL defenseman callup does on offense. Maybe it is his quality of competition, maybe its a 1 or 2 season sample size issue, but all of his positives and negatives put together have led to a guy whose results suggest a #5 Dman.