The Sharks have lost ten of the 22 games Alexei “Frankenstein” Semenov has played this year. That is almost half. That sucks for a team that experts around the country are picking to make a long anticipated run for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Why does this matter? Because, all indications are that Christian Ehrhoff is not healthy enough to play tonight in Game 1 against the Calgary Flames, so Ron Wilson has turned to Frankenstein to pick up the slack. Frankenstein. A brain-eating defensemen who contributes nothing to the club but a disasterous plus/minus stat of -8, which stinks for a guy who played only a quarter of the games this year. Actually, Semenov only had three games this year when he was on the plus side of the number.

What does this say about Matt Carle? Well, it says that Ron Wilson trusts him about as much as a week-old Breakfast Hot Pocket. FLUSH POCKET! He has only seen the ice five times since March 1st. And Ozo’s -3 performance against Dallas in the finale cemented his role as practice dummy. I guess, when you look around, the options are pretty slim. Should the Sharks have hung on to Rob Davison instead of peddling him off for a 7th round pick? We’re about to find out.

East

Montreal vs. Boston: I think the Habs are the Sharks a year ago- a bitchin’ power play, but defense that can take a night or two off. If they run up against a good penalty killing team, they could be in trouble. That being said, Boston has the second-worst PK in the East. Montreal in five.

Pittsburg vs. Ottawa: You have goalie problems, you’ve got playoff problems. And Ottawa has goalie problems. With Malkin and Crosby ready and waiting, it’s all on Gerber. Pittsburg in six.

Washington vs. Philadelphia: Keep in mind that Philly has more points than the Caps, even though the Caps are a #3 seed. I think the Caps have been so focused on trying to make the postseason, they may not be as ready as other teams. Either way, it’ll be great to watch. Philly in seven.

New York Rangers vs. New Jersey: I was on the Rangers’ bandwagon before the season started, and now I’m way off. With Jagr tailing off, and the Gomez/Drury bust, I’d rather put my money on possibly the greatest goaltender of all time. New Jersey in six.

West

Detroit vs. Nashville: The Preds are gonna get streamrolled, plain and simple. Nashville is outmanned in every possible aspect of the game. Detroit in four.

San Jose vs. Calgary: Worst possible draw for the Sharks. This series is going to be long and brutal. This is a Sharks blog, so I’m almost contractually obligated to pick them, but this could be an upset. San Jose in seven.

Minnesota vs. Colorado: Toughest series for me to predict. The Wild are on my s&*! list for laying down on the last day of the season and giving us Calgary instead of the Avs. When they play well it’s stifling, but they are in the middle of the pack for goals against. They won the season series against Colorado, but are now playing against possibly the best defensive defenseman this year. Colorado in seven.

Anaheim vs. Dallas: With Pronger back and Zubov out, I can’t imagine this being a long series. The Stars wanted to dust off their knuckles against the Sharks to be ready to dodge the Pronger Stompin’™, but it won’t be nearly enough. Anaheim in five.

The update: there is no update.  For some reason, this contest has seemingly taken Eklund completely by surprise, even though he organized it and is running it.  The first post was submitted almost three weeks ago, and they’ve only posted 6 matchups out of 32 so far.   The post grier submitted is now horribly and ridiculously out of date- it was a updated punchier version of “Who Do You Want?”  Now that the matchups are set, reading that post will be about as interesting as watching grass grow.  Which is to say more interesting than reading some of the contest posts so far.   We’re going to try and submit a more timely post this week, but we have no idea if it will be accepted.  It almost looks like the pace is slowing down even further- they said they would post three contests per day, and they ended up doing 4 all week.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole thing collapses under its own weight.  My recommendation to Eklund is to just shut the whole thing down, and re-open once you have a clue what you’re doing.

I loved seeing Joe Thornton throw bombs at Ott yesterday. I didn’t care that we lost 4-2, we never would have lost if Rivet, Grier, JR, and Ehrhoff had been in the lineup.

Here are my first round predictions, and I’m sure Mike will follow suit later today. I’m pretty pissed off about the Sharks playoff schedule. I don’t like the back-to-back Game 1 and 2, but looking at the HP Pavilion schedule loaded with Sabercats games and concerts, there really was no other choice.

THE EAST
(1) Montreal vs. (8) Boston – They played eight times this year. The Habs won all eight. Not much to say here, Boston is easy picking for the Habs in Round One. Won’t be close. Montreal in four.

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Ottawa – The Penguins could not have been thrilled to draw the Ottawa Senators in the first round. Sort of like how the Sharks probably feel the Flames aren’t much of a reward for finishing #2 in the conference – but I digress. This would be the best series in Round One if both teams were healthy, but no Fisher and no Alfredsson means good times for Crosby/Malkin and Co. The over/under for all games should be like seven. Pittsburgh in six.

(3) Washington vs. (6) Philadelphia – This will be the best series in Round One with two teams both riding high. The Flyers are 7-2-1 in their last ten, the Caps 9-1-0. It’s going to be physical and fun, but it all will come down to goaltending in the end – and the edge has to go to Huet. I think Penguins/Capitals in Round Two will have TV executives and fans of the game drooling in anticipation. Washington in seven.

(4) New Jersey vs. (5) NY Rangers – The Rangers have owned the Devils this season, winning seven out of eight games. I’m not a fan of this Devils team, they aren’t as talented or capable of making a long playoff run. Brodeur will manage to steal one game, but the Rangers should roll. New York in five.

THE WEST
(1) Detroit vs. (8) Nashville – The Preds haven’t proven they can succeed in April, but this is a slightly different roster that plays more blue-collar without Kariya, which is just the type of team that could give the Wings fits. No one expected Nashville to make the playoffs except for Nashville. Detroit will look rusty, possibly drop Game 1 and 2, but in the end, the Wings are just too good, and will claw back to take the series. Detroit in six.

(2) San Jose vs. (7) Calgary – If you are a regular reader, and if you are, god bless you – then you know I was dreading this potential first round foe. I think Calgary is going to give the Sharks everything they can handle and more, and they will be confident with Kipper in the pipes. This will be a dogfight and if the Sharks are going to win the Cup, their road starts rough. Several of the experts are already pointing their fingers at this series as a potential upset but San Jose is too skilled and primed to overcome their postseason demons. Calgary has sputtered down the stretch and given up too many goals this year to hang with the Sharks in the long run. San Jose in six.

(3) Minnesota vs. (6) Colorado – The Old vs. The Boring. You couldn’t catch me watching a game of this series on Center Ice….okay,okay – I’m a whore for hockey. I will probably watch – but I won’t like it! Minnesota has no answer for the magic prunes consumed in the Avs dressing room – I’ll be rooting for the Wild but the Avs are destined to face the Wings in Round Two. Here’s hoping Forsberg ruptures something. Colorado in five.

(4) Anaheim vs. (5) Dallas – The Stars had great success vs. Anaheim this year, taking five out of eight, but I just don’t think the series is going to be that interesting. The Ducks know how to show up when it matters and Dallas showed on Sunday that they may try to play physical but their tough guy Ott got his ass kicked by Thunder Joe. No Zubov + Turco choking in the nets again = Anaheim in five.

Even though their paths may be the most difficult, could the stars be alligning for a Pittsburgh/San Jose Stanley Cup??

This the time of year when we all realize how much of a crapshoot the NHL really is. For our long-time readers, both grier and I predicted the division standings way back in September. Today is the day to be accountable for the destruction we have wrought. As a good little math nerd, I put a spreadsheet together to calculate how we did. To determine how bad a prediction was, we just take the difference between the final standing and the predicted standing. By far the worst prediction of the year was made by yours truly, picking the Lightning to win the division, when in fact they finished last, and last in the conference too. So that would get a 4- the difference between actual (5) and predicted (1). The lowest combined total wins.

After all that work, it’s a friggin tie. If the stupid Wild managed to win against the Avs today, two good things would have come of it: 1) I would have won and proven my superiority over grier once and for all, and b) the Sharks would be facing the Avs in Round 1, clearly a better draw than the Flames.  Thanks for nothing, Wild.  Have fun losing in the first round.

It had to happen at some point, right? The Sharks finally lost a game in regulation, for the first time in 21 games they didn’t get a point, and I think it was a good thing. Why? Because this team has to remember how to bounce back after a loss – and a lackluster effort – and we don’t want this challenge to come for the first time after they lose a game in the playoffs.

Bottom Line – The Sharks are facing one of the most difficult paths to the Stanley Cup Finals in recent memory – with Calgary as their most likely first round opponent. That means if Colorado beats Minnesota in the first round (which I think is likely) then San Jose will have to go through Calgary, Anaheim and the Red Wings in order to reach the Finals. Brutal. Last year the Ducks had Minnesota and Vancouver in the first two rounds, which is a cake walk compared to what lies ahead for San Jose. I look at the more difficult path the Wings had last year, with Calgary and San Jose in the first two rounds, and wonder how much that took out of them when they had to face the Ducks in Finals. The Wings had two more games than the Ducks and were engaged in a very physical first round series with Calgary. Should Sharks fans expect the same from the Flames this year, if that is who we draw….um – yes. Calgary is the 5th most penalized team in the NHL this season and thrives on a physical game. They won the season series 3-1 vs. San Jose, winning three straight where the Sharks suffered meltdowns at the end and gave the games away BUT all of these games were played B.C. (Before Campbell) and we Sharks fans know this is a much different team now.

The Sharks needed to lose last night so they can refocus, look at the task at hand and prepare for what is bound to be an exciting, but extremely challenging, playoff run.

Lot’s of buzz about the Vezina race right now. Article in the Merc, article on ESPN.com, and others are putting in their two cents. Time for mine, although they are only worth 1.87 Canadian cents now.

Rob Neyer has done something similar in baseball to ranking pitchers, and a I know I read a breakdown like this before, though I can’t find the post. Either Mirtle, PuckStopsHere, or BoC. Sorry I can find the cite, but the message is this- I didn’t invent this system.

For the major categories, you just put the ranking of each contestant, not their stats, and you can use the average ranking as a way to compare. Here goes:

Now if you strictly took the top three as Vezina Finalists, you’d have Brodeur, Giguere, and Nabby. We all know that’s not going to happen. Luongo will be a finalist, no question. He’s viewed, not rightly so in my mind, as a slam-dunk finalist. It does bother me that some players get anointed as great regardless of their actual results. If Luongo was named, oh, I don’t know, “Lundqvist” or something, we wouldn’t be talking about this in the same way.

It’s really hard for me to be objective here, because I know Nabby is the MVP of the Sharks. Without his consistent play, the trials we witnessed in November through January would have been a hell of a lot worse. The unbelievable streak we are on is in no small part to Nabby’s performance.

My prediction is that Nabby will not be named a finalist, for a two reasons:

• The Sharks play on the west coast which doesn’t get as much media attention as the East Coast or Canadian teams. Nabby technically did have a shot at setting a wins record, which helps his cause. However, I think people will argue (rightly or wrongly) that his wins are more of a result of him playing so many games.
• I think this comment by puckstopshere in a comment on his blog is indicative of a sentiment: “Nabokov may be a good goalie, but any Vezina chances he has are largely a product of playing a lot of games behind a good defence, as opposed to being a Vezina worthy goalie.” Rant time. Nabby may be a good goalie? Can anyone honestly present an argument that Nabby isn’t a good goalie that won’t make me blow milk out of my nose? Also, It bugs me that this standard isn’t applied consistently. When Brodeur puts up good stats when he’s behind the #1 ranked conference defense (by GA) in the East, he’s a great goalie. When Luongo puts up good stats behind the #5 ranked defense, he’s a great goalie. When Giguere does it behind the #3 defense (only one more goal allowed than the Sharks), he’s great. When Nabby does it behind the #2 defense it’s because of the defense, not because he’s great. Give me a formula, heuristic, or methodology to explain that, and let’s discuss it on merit, instead of some voodoo feeling.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter, because Brodeur is going to win it, and he should.

Quick note, Teal Spiel fans – the host, Chetan Chaudhari, will be on Sharksbuzz  tonight – an  internet radio show run by the Sharks bloggers at hockeybuzz.com.    They have a mechanism to call in as well.  Ask Chetan if he’s figured out how to put on hockey pads yet.    Don’t worry, he’ll know what you mean.  And I’m certain he’ll be thrilled with the question.

You know who I mean. Jody Shelley. To me, he’s an enigma wrapped in a mystery wrapped in a toothless visage. Ok, not entirely toothless. As some might know, I made an over-under bet with grier on how many points Shelley would get for the Sharks this year. When he joined the Sharks, he was averaging less than one point per 10 games. We set the over-under at 5, and I cunningly took the under. Needless to say, I lost two weeks ago, after only 23 games. I mention this now because he got yet another point last night in the win over the Kings, assisting on Curtis Brown’s goal. Speaking of Curtis Brown, he’s suddenly turned into a sharpshooter. Each of his goals in the last three games had eyes for the corners.

But I digress. We were talking about Shelley. Last night he got into a scrap against Raitis Ivanans, his sixth as a Shark. As the popular vote at the be-all-end-all hockey fight site indicates, he’s won none of them (0-2-4). In the case of the fight against the Boogeyman, he lost badly. Frankly, he hasn’t looked good in any of the tilts. I’m not sure if it’s a strategic move, but it appears that after the initial fist-full-of-jersey jab thing most fighters do these days, Shelley seems to wait. And wait. Maybe he’s hoping for the other guy to get tired and let his guard down. But what tends to happen is the guy throws a barrage of punches, most of which don’t do any damage, and then ties up Shelley and falls down, ending the fight. As someone who’s never actually thrown punches during a hockey fight before (although I have dropped the gloves) I’m not exactly qualified to give advice here. But maybe it’s time for Shelley to lean on the guy a bit more, and punch earlier in the bout. Just a suggestion. I know I’m digressing again, but why doesn’t anyone throw body shots? Kidney punches could be deadly, and shoulder pads don’t usually cover that area too well. Even a hard punch to the stomach could do some damage through the pads.  I’m not sure if there are Rules in The Code about such things.

Besides his unfortunate results as a pugilist for the Sharks, I’d still rate Mr. Shelley (after my critique of his fights, he’s Mr. Shelley now) as a must-have in the postseason lineup. He still throws his body around with complete disregard to his own safety (and that of others as well). As Ron Wilson has said, “he’s a better hockey player” than Scott Parker. In an age of hockey where the tough guys tend to ride the pine during the postseason, take this as a call to the Sharks to keep Mr. Shelley around. Lord knows how the cap situation will pan out this offseason, but if it’s possible, I would want to see him again in Teal for the 08-09 season.

Big Joe put one in only 15 seconds in, and the Sharks continued to roll, effortlessly. The Sharks easily set the franchise record for most wins in a month, with 13. They’ve gotten 32 out of a possible 34 points in the last 17 games. You’re not going to see another streak like this in the NHL for a while, folks. It’s time to enjoy it a little.

Looks like grier and I are both eating some crowe on the Clowe situation, haha. And we discovered last night why neither of us are running the Sharks. This guy just made the Sharks even better, and the rest of the West must be swallowing hard right now. This is a team clicking big time, with the depth to bounce back from a physical series. And the way things are looking, we’ll get one in the first round against Calgary, easily the toughest team in the bottom four seeds.

Just wanted to give a little more detail on the blogger contest. Here’s the link to the archive. The way it’s going is they have a blog post with the two entries of a given matchup – it looks like they are working their way through the “Northeast” bracket right now. Then there’s a second post on who won the matchup. They’ve decided to do three matchups per day, Monday through Friday. Even at that rate, we might not even see grier’s this week. But let’s put it this way, it’ll make an impression. If you read the “articles” they’ve posted so far, all have a certain tone, style, and pacing that is fairly “professional” in nature. I put that in quotes because it seems the entrants are trying to write for a newspaper, not a blog. Personally, I like the casual style of blog posts, and the entry you will see from grier reflects that style. I’d put the chances of that backfiring pretty high, but we don’t care. We aren’t getting paid enough to care. It’d be nice to win some matchups or the whole contest, but if that means the posts have to to adhere to some style guide or usage document, no thanks. Homogeneity is not a selling point.