So I was 7-1 picking the 1st round series- my only mistake was picking Calgary to win against Detroit. Calgary’s complete inability to win on the road spelled doom for them. Note to NHL teams: if you are to win without any wins on the road, you have to have home ice advantage. Calgary didn’t, and they didn’t. I picked two ‘upsets’ correctly- the Sharks and Rangers. I didn’t think Atlanta was so bad they’d get swept, but I did pick the winner and number of games correctly in the New Jersey and Anaheim series.

I think the next round will be easier to pick winners, but I’m still going to hold off on that post until later today or tomorrow, so I can study the matchups more. I hope to be better with picking the number of games as well.

The Sharks need to play Detroit next. The Red Wings have been beaten down, bruised and frustrated by a physical Calgary team. They are poised for their annual postseason collapse, which would have happened in Round One if Calgary could have mounted any sort of offensive attack. We need the Wings now because tackling the Ducks in Round Two will be too emotional. If…wait, I mean when we beat the Ducks, and we will beat the Ducks, it will be a huge accomplishment. I fear our guard could be down and a hungry Dallas/Detroit winner will take advantage.

The Ducks have to be the final step before we play for Lord Stanley. It is hockey destiny. GO CANUCKS!

So I have to say I’m surprised that the Sharks won in five games. As you remember, I picked the Sharks to win in 7, and I wasn’t exactly confident in my pick. A few reasons why I think the Sharks won in such a convincing fashion:

• Good timing. They scored goals at crucial times, Patrick Marleau’s goal in game 5 being the most obvious.
• Frustrating defense. The Preds did get the cycle going, as I said before, but the D did not allow passes to go through the middle, or allow guys in the slot an unimpeded whack at the puck.
• Great goaltending. Nabby came up huge a number of different times, times where the momentum could have really shifted. Instead the Sharks could attack and counter-attack knowing they have a Smythe-quality goalie backing them up.

So now we look ahead to the conference semis. I have to assume if the Sharks keep winning, they will have to play Anaheim sooner or later, so do we want sooner or later? Here’s the pros and cons of playing them now:
Pros:

• The Sharks have only played 5 games, are relatively injury free (Cheech is still not himself) and will be rested for round 2. Playing Dallas or Detroit could be a long series, leaving them tired and battered for the conference finals.
• Nabby is on his game, and could easily steal one or more games.
• Most of the lines are clicking right now, and we’ll need balanced scoring to win against the Ducks.

Cons:

• They’re the Ducks, and we’re only 3-5 against them this season.
• They are also rested and healthy. The longer they play, the better the chance that one of their grey-beards (Selanne, Pronger, Niedermayer) will get hurt.
• Our power play is sucking ass, and Anaheim takes a lot of penalties. We’ll need to make the most of the PP.

Given all this, I’d have to say I think I’d rather play the Ducks next, assuming we will have to play them. In the most likely scenario, they could roll over Vancouver in 4 or 5 games, and the Detroit series could be long. The last thing we want is to limp into a series against a rested, ready Duck team. Our best chance to beat them is right now.

I know this is a really original thought, but man, there’s nothing like playoff hockey. The play is quicker, harder, and much more intense. The mood of the crowd is nervous- eager to cheer at the slightest good fortune or play. And on the flip side, the Sharks crowd gets pretty quiet when Nashville is running their power cycle in our zone.

Which happened pretty often.

Last night especially, the Preds could cycle deep in our zone almost at will in the first and second periods. Kariya would have it at the half-boards. Dump it low. Forsberg would be there, maybe go behind the net and kick it out to the point, which would shoot or go around back to Kariya. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. To the Sharks’ credit, they had strong coverage in the middle, and didn’t let a forward have a good swipe at an open puck (there weren’t many, thanks to Nabby) or slip out to the weak side and look for a pass.

At least in game 4, I think it just came down to better goaltending, and more clutch performances. If you looked at every possession that didn’t result in a goal and had to predict the score, you’d probably predict Nashville 4-1 or maybe worse. But Nabby came up huge, and the Sharks had good bounces and plays. Especially Pavelski’s goal. He really created something out of nothing there.

So the question is- is it really the Sharks’ size, as Rusonowsky and Baker are saying on the radio? Or is it Nashville’s horrible road playoff record (0-7)? Since the Sharks did take one in Tennessee, I have to think it’s a bit of both. I’m making a bold prediction here, but I think game 5 could be a decisive Sharks victory, not a nail-biter like the last two. Nashville will come out in full-court press mode, and will try to cycle and push. If the Sharks stay disciplined and counter-attack, they could put up goals quickly. And I think Nashville, after their all-or-nothing trades this year, could get desperate and take penalties. The San Jose PP has to start scoring soon, you don’t want to wake the sleeping giant. It might just wake up on Friday.

So I make it a point to read the Mercury News coverage of Sharks hockey, since it is the hometown paper here on the Sharks, and I have to agree with Mark Purdy. Mark, please do me a favor- STOP REFERRING TO THE SHARKS AS “LOS TIBURONES”. It was old about a decade ago, and it hasn’t exactly taken the country by storm. Anyway, Purdy’s column talks about how Barry Trotz said hit shouldn’t have even been a penalty, and opines that Hartnell should have been suspended.

First things first. Trotz, while not having a neck, is sticking up for his guy, and is completely ridiculously wrong. It’s a dirty hit. It came late, and was a bush-league effort. It was not designed to put body on body- it was intended to block Cheech by taking his feet out. As Purdy said, Trotz would be outraged if Forsberg or Kariya was on the receiving end of such a hit. So outraged he might actually grow himself a neck. Sorry, but that joke is just too damn easy.

Check out this post. It has stills from the video. Clearly Hartnell has his right knee forward, and from the video, we know he is gliding. That means he’s trying to hit Cheech with his knee. We also see his elbow contacting Cheechoo’s head. I believe Hartnell when he said that he didn’t try to take Cheech’s knee out, but it’s hard to argue that he wasn’t trying to take him out in a extraordinarily reckless way. He got ‘unlucky’ and took Cheech’s knee out, but did successfully elbow him in the head, knocking out a tooth.

I’m not getting my righteous indignation on here, because this kind of thing can and does happen to a lot of players. Hartnell is a tough, gritty player that made a shitty play. He deserves a suspension, and more than one game. He wasn’t calculating the attack angle on Cheech’s knee to determine maximum ACL damage, but it was a dirty hit that could have had career-ending consequences. Ask Cam Neely about how easy that happens.

The East

• Buffalo(1) vs. Islanders(8). Buffalo clearly overmatches Islanders in every category except possibly goaltending, but that’s only when DiPietro is healthy and he’s not. Polish up them 9-irons, you’ll be using them soon. Sabres in 4.
• New Jersey(2) vs. Tampa Bay(7). Can the creative and explosive Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Richards overcome a Devils defense that is designed to turn creativity and explosiveness into a yawning, 100-neutral-zone-turnovers-per-game snoozefest? Probably not, but New Jersey might have trouble scoring, now that half their team are nursing injuries. Plus the Lightning goaltending sucks. Devils in 6.
• Atlanta(3) vs. Rangers(6). Atlanta made deadline moves for Tkachuk, Zhitnik, Dupuis, and Belanger, and won the season series 3-1, but I think Lundquist being hot, and unmistakable scoring power in Jagr and Shanahan will be enough to stumble the playoff first-timers. Rangers in 6.
• Ottawa(4) vs. Pittsburg(5). Probably the most exciting series of the first round. You need a full hand to count the superstar scorers involved- Crosby, Malkin, Heatley, Spezza, Alfredsson. Ottawa are ‘chokers’ in the first round, but Pittsburg’s lack of defense will be their undoing. Crosby doesn’t give up, but he’ll have more trouble with Phillips, Redden, and Mezsaros than Heatley will have with Gonchar(who doesn’t play defense) and Orpik (who?). Ottawa in 6.

The West

• Detroit(1) vs. Calgary(8). Detroit’s gaudy record is fluffed by playing 24 games against the dregs of the west, St. Louis, Columbus, and Chicago. Zetterberg and Kronwall are out, and the Wings will hurt for scoring with only Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and the inevitable Nik Lidstrom with over 60 points. Calgary can finally score, but their D is weaker than years past. Yet they have perennial Vezina candidate Kipper to back them up, while the Dominator could go down at any time, he’s 42. And yes, I’m still bitter about the Kiprusoff trade, even though we drafted Vlasic with the pick we got. Calgary in 6.
• Anaheim(2) vs. Minnesota(7). Some people have picked Minnesota in an upset, and while I hate the Ducks as much as any Sharks fan, those people are on friggin’ crack. The Ducks, while not playing in a Jacque Lemaire-inspired robotic trance, are better at every phase except maybe PK. Every time Gaborik and Demitra are on the ice, they’ll be staring down the barrel of two Norris winners. Have fun with that. Ducks in 5.
• Vancouver(3) vs. Dallas(6). Vancouver was the matchup I didn’t want, and I’ll happily watch Dallas go down like a sack of dirt. They might be able to stop the Sedins for a while, sooner or later they will score, while Dave Tippett will be cursing management for saddling him with Ladislav Nagy. Turco would have to stand on his head, something he’s never done in the playoffs, but oh yeah, he’s against the Vezina favorite, Roberto Luongo. Later Stars. Vancouver in 5.
• Nashville(4) vs. Sharks(5). While the Vancouver matchup would be worse, this one is plenty bad. As Sharks fans all know, San Jose has a dismal record against all the other playoff teams, 1-3 against Nashville. This year we get the pleasure of facing Vokoun instead of Mason, and Forsberg added to their already-powerful lineup. If Cheech and Nabby can stay hot, we can win the series. But I’m so far away from objective it isn’t even funny. Sharks in 7.

Before Wednesday- full prediction of the first-round matchups.

So the West is good. Ridiculously good. Right now the Sharks have 96 points, only good enough for 7th in the West. To put that in a bit of context, 96 points is higher than any 7th seed for the past 20 years. Probably longer, but I didn’t feel like going back any further. It’s likely that the top 7 seeds in the West will have over 100 points, the first time that has ever happened.

But now that there are so many extra points given the shootout, aren’t those numbers inflated? Of course. Right now, teams are earning an average of 1.115 points per game, so the whole two-points-for-a-win thing is skewed by the number of OT games where 3 points are awarded. So how do we normalize?

We normalize by the number of wins, not points. The number of season games has stayed constant long enough that we can make some historical comparisons. And we cut out shootout wins. That gives us the number of wins a team made in regulation and OT, which avoids the new requirement that there has to be a winner. So here’s the new top 8, sorted just by regulation and OT wins:

1. San Jose – 45
2. Detroit – 43
3. Nashville – 42
4. Anaheim – 40
5. Vancouver – 40
6. Dallas – 38
7. Calgary – 38
8. Minnesota – 35

If I had bothered to run the numbers before I started the post, I guess I could have made the theme about how the Sharks are getting screwed by the shootout, but it’s already too late. My original thesis is still good. It’s entirely likely, even probable, that seven teams in the West will have 40 wins or more.

Since the expansion era in the early 90’s, that has never happened. Most years it’s not even really close. This year’s Western Conference is the best collection of teams in a conference in at least 15 years, and probably more.

The Sharks have been tearing it up lately- they’ve gotten a point in their last 10 games (8-0-2). And they really played well last night against a streaking Atlanta team. Atlanta is a very quick team that always wants to create odd-man rushes. That gives their snipers, Kovalchuk and Hossa, chances to score. Despite the Thrashers’ thirst for turnovers, the Sharks, after playing a fairly sloppy first period, locked it down en route to a 5-1 victory.

Halfway through the game, there were still no penalties called. The Sharks were up 3-1, and I’ll let Victor Chi of the Mercury News report the rest:

Coach Bob Hartley yanked goalie Kari Lehtonen in favor of Johan Hedberg. Then on the ensuing faceoff, Jon Sim challenged Bell. Bell, not wanting to scrap with a three-goal lead, declined Sim’s initial invitation to fight.

“Then he slashed my stick,” Bell said. “I said, `What are you doing?’ He said, `We’re going.’ I said, `Are you serious?’ `Yeah.’ So I dropped my gloves. I called his bluff. I’ve played against him before, so I knew he was probably going to run around a little bit.”

Bell ended the bout – as well as Sim’s night – with a punch that broke an orbital bone.

Nice call, Sim. Way to help your team, by challenging a guy a head taller than you, breaking your face, and missing the rest of the season and the post season. This popped into my head, so I had to get it out. For Mark Bell:
Felony DUI rap : $100,000+
18 points in 64 games, -9 : $2,000,000
Knocking some jackass out that challenged you to a fight: priceless

Sharks play Columbus tonight at home, after beating Phoenix badly last night. Ordinarily, this would look like a trap game, because Columbus is 12th in the west, the Sharks are playing back-to-backs, and play a much better team in Colorado on Sunday

But I think the Sharks won’t take this game lightly. We need to continue to accumulate points, given that both Dallas and Anaheim are still winning. Also, the Sharks were embarrased and shut own when they last played the Blue Jackets, on 2/16. Plus, CLS just beat Anaheim in OT a few nights ago, so they’ve been a bit of the giant killers.

The toughest game in the next upcoming stretch will definitely be Thursday at Atlanta, after having to play Chicago in the Midwestern time zone the night before.

I think Anaheim is pretty much out of reach at this point, so Dallas is the really the one we’re in the dogfight with. Looking at the Stars’ schedule the rest of the year, they have to play Nashville twice, Anaheim twice, and Detroit. But they also get to play Phoenix three times, in less than two weeks no less. I’d rate our schedule slightly easier. At this point, we’re dead even in terms of points, so as long as we play one point better than them, we’ll probably get the 5th spot. Then we get the privilege of playing Nashville or Detroit in the first round. Hmm, maybe we should just lay back a bit and take Vancouver. Either way we’re in for a ridiculously tough matchup.

Just look at the east 3 through 6- Atlanta, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. I’d say at this point, any 3-6 West team against any one of those teams would be a big favorite. This sucks.