This is an exciting day in hockey. The trade deadline. Lots of players on the move, new hopes born for teams, and the last chance of contention put to rest. But I have to start with the big deal, again involving the Sharks. Bill Guerin is coming! Sharks trade their remaining first round pick and a “non-roster” player to the Blues for Bill Guerin. Like Rivet, Guerin will be unrestricted in the offseason. But we do add a Stanley Cup winner with 28 goals for no current roster hit. And remember, he played with Joe in Boston. Joe-Bill-Cheech-Carle-Patty on the power play? My heart is already racing.

More deals have already happened, and I’ll be adding more posts throughout the day. Still a lot of rumors surrounding Nabby.

So the Sharks did make a deal with the Montreal Canadians over the weekend, but not the one I posted about last, thank God. The trade went down like this- Josh Gorges and the Sharks 2007 1st round pick to the Canadiens for Craig Rivet and a their 2008 5th round pick. The Sharks still have their 1st round pick they got from the Devils for taking on Vladimir Malakhov’s cap space.

The worst news about the deal is that Rivet will be unrestricted after this season. But I’m hoping that Doug Wilson has already inquired about locking up Rivet for next season and perhaps beyond. According to the Mercury News article on the trade,

Rivet said one of his first phone calls after the trade will be to his friend Vincent Damphousse, the former Canadiens and Sharks captain, to ask about life in San Jose. “From what I hear, I’m really excited to get down there,” Rivet said.

This is probably just putting a happy face on the deal, but it makes me feel better than the stuff Joe Thornton said when he was traded. Which was more or less “This is just part of the deal playing in the NHL, and I’ll miss Boston.” Anyone remember that?

This trade is superior to the rumored Souray deal in several respects. For one, we aren’t giving up a top-flight young player. I admire the kid’s heart, but I’ve never been on the Gorges bandwagon. I think he’s too small, not physical enough, and lacks the vision of a steady NHL blueliner. Also, we’re getting a ‘even’ player over his career, a long career in which Rivet hasn’t scored much. That means he’s a solid defensive defenseman, exactly the kind of player we need. I think Souray is clearly the better player, but I’d rather have the focus be on preventing goals rather than creating them.

So let’s look at the worst case: Rivet walks after the season. So we would have lost Gorges, and one of our two first round picks. First rounders aren’t anything to sneeze at, but given how young kids are drafted, doesn’t mean you have a star on your hands. Looking casually at the drafts from about 1998-2004, there seem to be about 5 great-to-star NHL players, with most of them being in the top 5 to 10 picks. The Sharks’ pick this year will certainly not be in the top 10. So the changes the Canadiens will turn the pick into a great or star player is probably about even money. I think it’s a good gamble for Doug Wilson to take.

I found a trade rumors site, and see this blurb:

“Charles” sends in the following on the Canadiens: “On CJAD radio in Montreal this morning Michael Farber mentioned Sheldon Souray for Matt Carle. According to Farber, a star player on the Sharks said that it was going around the dressing room and was “a done deal”. Farber sees Carle as a Chelios-type player, and no one could begrudge Gainey for trading a guy who likely has 20 games left in a Habs uniform – even if he is the top scorer – for a potential franchise defenceman.”

I’m not a NHL player, and I’m not a GM, but this trade does not make much sense to me. Ok, I’m friggin biased. But even if I weren’t, I don’t see much upside here. Matt Carle is a great young defenseman, in the mold of a Chelios or even a Lidstrom- a strong skater with a bit of a scoring touch. Sheldon Souray is a known quantity- a 31-year-old blueliner who can score. But Adam Foote he ain’t. Souray has been a minus player most of his career, and plays the point on the PP. He’s good for 40 or 50 points a year. Foote is a plus player, who chips in a point every so often- his best season was 31 points. Foote is an older Scott Hannan that hits harder.

How is this an upgrade for the Sharks? Carle could easily reach 40 points this year, his first full year in the NHL. He plays the point on the power play, and can score. But he’s only 22. With Ehrhoff, the Sharks have two young D that like to skate and shoot. In my opinion, the Sharks need an Adam Foote a heck of a lot more than a Sheldon Souray. We need steady D that calms the young kids down. We don’t need a guy that will jump up in the play and get beat now and again. We have one of those already, and his name is Christian Ehrhoff.

Oh yeah, and Souray will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. If the trade goes down, we could actually be trading a better defenseman now that we can keep for another few years for a guy who could be gone by July. But on the plus side, Souray was married to Angelica Bridges.

Sometimes I think leadership in sports is just like chemistry- it matters only if you’re losing. So the Sharks have gotten thoroughly embarrassed the last few games, getting shutout in both Nashville and Columbus, and only barely showing up in Dallas. It brings one to the question of chemistry and leadership, and if the Sharks have it. Marleau is said to be a silent leader, not one to chastise players in the locker room, and Joe is the same way- he leads by example, and not be speaking out. Grier and Brown are vets who have been there before, but no one on the Sharks today will stand up in the locker room and grab people by the scruff of the neck.

So does that mean the Sharks need to make a move? Sure, the last month has been kinda brutal, but do you trade someone like Bernier or Cheechoo to gear up for the playoffs? As I said in the last post, the Sharks are a young team. Maybe this year isn’t their year to win the Cup. But who would have said last year was the Canes’ year? You do the best you can, and hope to get hot in the postseason.

I do wonder if there is enough grit in the locker room, and enough experience. Take this quote from Joe Thornton in ESPN The Magazine about Josh Gorges:

Really sensitive young man, ready to give you a hug anytime you feel down. He’s just concerned about his teammates. He also watches chick flicks. “The Notebook” is his favorite. And he’s secure in that.

I can’t say I’m reassured.

So many people are blogging about the Forsberg deal, and I figure I’d pile on. For those in the dark, Forsberg was traded from the Flyers to the Nashville Predators for Scott Upshall, Ryan Parent, a 1st round pick, and a 3rd round pick. Forsberg’s contract is up at the end of the year, so it’s possible (even likely) that he will only play about 3 months of hockey for the Preds. For which they gave up two players and two good draft picks.

If you put it like that, it sounds like the Preds got robbed. I knew the Flyers were asking a lot, but that’s even more than I expected. However, think of it this way- the best team in the NHL just got better. They beat down the Sharks a few nights ago, and have the most points in the NHL. Now they got one of the best players in the game (when healthy) who is playing as good as he’s played all season.

The Preds have to win now. Players over 30 – Zidlicky, Vokoun, Timmonen, Sullivan, Nichol, Mason, Kariya, Forsberg, and Arnott. That’s more or less the core of the team. Why hold onto those draft picks and players when you can give yourself a good chance to win the Cup?

Sharks players over 30… Brown, Grier, and Nabokov. Not nearly the same situation as Nashville- two third line players and the backup goaltender.

The Sharks returned to a modicum of respectability last night in winning 3-2. It was an all around better effort than Tuesday. Has anyone else noticed that Milan Michalek is jumping again? It seemed like he had made several power moves in the last few games, after being invisible for the better part of two months. If we can get that second line humming (hopefully Joe Pavelski will be back soon) we will be a lot more dangerous. Marleau playing with Joe makes the #1 more potent, but certainly answers the question as to which line the top D should play against. I think Pronger/Niedermayer were on the ice for every one of Patty’s shifts.

Also, I should mention that even though the Sharks are 2-3 against this Ducks this year, they’ve been outscored 22-13. All the Sharks’ victories have been close, and two of the Ducks’ victories have been blowouts, amongst the worst the Sharks have had this season.

I must say, the circumstances of the next Ducks matchup don’t exactly bode well for the Sharks. It’s the first home game after a long road trip. The Sharks are 2-2 after road trips of 3 games and longer. And the Philly win shouldn’t really count. I wish I had the data to easily crunch W/L records after long road trips, but I don’t feel like poring over the schedules of all 30 teams by hand.

After a fairly good outing against the always-bad Blackhawks on Thursday, the Sharks go completely in the tank (believe me, no pun intended) against the Ducks last night. It was 2-1 after 1, but 6-1 after two periods. The Sharks showed a little pluck in the 3rd en route to a 7-4 loss.

The Ducks are better than the Sharks. It’s just that simple. They have better D, better O, better goaltending. The Ducks first line matches up almost even with our first line, but their second line is head and shoulders better than ours. Penner, Getzlaf, and Perry made the Sharks’ young D look foolish, and even the third line played well. Travis Moen went right around Marc-Edouard Vlasic on two occasions, scoring on the first, and barely missing on the second. Matt Carle might get sent back to the minors after last night’s effort, including an outlet pass that was intercepted between the Sharks’ circles, for God’s sake. I think Rob Niedermayer thought it was Christmas.

After the Ducks put the game out of reach, they sat back a bit, and the Sharks surged. But even Philly could protect a 5 goal lead, and the Ducks managed. There were several tense moments after Cheech made it 6-4 late in the third, but after inexplicably keeping Toskala in the net on a Sharks power play, the Ducks scored an empty netter as soon as the PP expired. Generally you keep a goalie in net on your power play, because the other team won’t get penalized for missing an empty net (no icing on the kill), but in this case, I think the Sharks should have gone for broke. Try and salvage some worth out of the game.

I think I’ll be watching tonight’s game while peeking through my fingers.

Man, if the last two games are any indication, the Sharks are in trouble. Dallas’ top goal scorer has only 16 goals, and their top two points players are defensemen. If you can name their top scorer without looking it up, my hat is off to you. Possibly too easy hint: he has won the Selke.

Anyway, the moral of the past few games is, as the power play goes, so do the Sharks. Their recent stretch is 1-for-32. Doug thinks that Ron Wilson is skating on thin ice, but I think we need to have a bit of a wait-and-see attitude. The upcoming stretch is going to be huge, with a home-and-home against Anaheim, and road games against Nashville, Dallas, and Calgary all in February. If the Sharks continue to stink, maybe they’ll pull a Robbie Ftorek. I’m obviously way too emotionally invested in this, but I like Ron Wilson. I think if he got canned and they bring in somebody like Pat Burns or Jacques Demers, it won’t be for the better. On one hand, they would install a defensive-minded system, which might help shape up some of the poor defensive efforts (Jonathan Cheechoo -10, I’m looking in your direction), but I think it’ll squash some offensive creativity. With young talents like Michalek, Bernier, and Clowe, I want to see them turn into Kovalchuks, not Daigles.

In their infinite wisdom, the NHL has decided to hold the All-Star game and skills competitions on a Tuesday and Wednesday, the time when everyone is thinking about hockey. I’m sure the skills competition will run neck-and-neck with American Idol in the ratings. And by ‘neck-and-neck’, I mean, ‘the neck of a gnat vs the neck of a giraffe’.

And I like the All-Star game. I hate basketball, so the NBA All-Star game is out. Baseball’s All-Star game is lame, because the commisioner attached some ginned-up consequences to it. And the Pro Bowl is after the season is over, so who cares about that? The NHL All-Star game is purposefully not serious. Sure, wimps like Scott Niedermayer won’t show up because they’re ‘hurt’ or whatever, but it’s really not a big drain on one’s constitution. You skate around with some buddies, no one hits anybody else, and you take a few shots.

Ok, so the game is kinda like a family Thanksgiving touch football game on ice, without all the contact. Which is why the skills competition is the better event. As a hockey player myself, I definitely appreciate the skills shown in a regular season game, but I like to see the nuts and bolts of stuff. How fast can you shoot? How are you at saving breakaways? Plus, you get to see all the players trash talk each other, which is pretty fun.

The word is that Cheech, Marleau, and Joe will be on the same line during the game itself, so I’ll be tuning in for that. Maybe we’ll see something that rivals Owen Nolan’s called shot, my favorite All-Star moment ever.

What a shitty game. The Sharks gave up the first goal (AGAIN) last night, and quickly found themselves in an 0-3 hole less than 12 minutes into the game. Marcel Goc managed to score only seconds later to make it 3-1. I’m sure anybody that listened to the game or watched it on TV heard that this is the third straight start where Nabokov gave up 3 goals in the first period. The first time was Phoenix, when the Coyotes ended up winning 8-0 (too cold), the second was against the Wings, when the Sharks ended up winning 9-4 (too hot) and last night, when we lost 3-2 (just right).

It certainly seems that Nabokov has trouble making the early save. Two of the goals last night were on the power play, and those two probably weren’t his fault. But spotting the other team 3 goals isn’t exactly a winning formula. It’s pretty much common sense that the team that scores the first goal has a much better chance of winning, but let’s flip that aphorism on it’s head, and look at it from the other direction.

In the last 15 games, the Sharks are 8-7. In 10 of those games, the Sharks did not score the first goal. They are 5-0 in the games they did score the first goal, and 3-7 in the ones they didn’t, which sounds like a decent percentage. But it’s not- this year, the league average winning percentage of teams that don’t score first is .315.

Using nhl.com’s handy-dandy stats tool, we can see that the Sharks are the best in the league when they score first – 18-3. If they don’t score first they 10-12, which is good enough for 5th best. Believe it or not, Buffalo is 10-4-2 when they don’t score first, a .625 winning percentage.

Clearly, the Sharks need to focus more on 1st-period play.