Carolina managed to pull it out last night in a great Game 7, which capped off a great Stanley Cup Finals series. Certainly the best I’ve seen this millennium. The back and forth of the Devils-Ducks series was pretty fun, but that series had 4 (four!) shutouts. This series had two, but they were 4-0 and 5-0 beatdowns. The play of this year’s finals versus 2003 is night and day. Lots of skating and passing, and high speed hits.

I read that game 3 in L.A., shown at 5pm, lost in the ratings to I Love Lucy reruns. Not good. Game 1 lost nationwide to college softball. I don’t think that second stat is really a fair comparison, because the hockey game was on OLN, and softball was on ESPN. OLN isn’t available in 20% of homes, and I think ESPN is close to 100%. But the I Love Lucy stat is pretty brutal, because that’s in a market that has OLN and two NHL franchises.

I guess I could lament the loss of hockey from mainstream sports consciousness, but I’m not that concerned. I have season tickets and an internet connection. I can find just about as much hockey coverage as I want. As soon as they start streaming TV over the net, which OLN has done already, this will become a purely academic argument. Hockey isn’t talked about enough on ESPN or in the sports pages? Boo hoo. Heck, my favorite sports to watch on TV are hockey and beach volleyball. And I love watching cricket too, although I don’t understand about 50% of it. I guess I’m used to searching for good programming.

What a beatdown. The Oilers dropped 4 goals on Carolina, and didn’t give up any in game 6. There were a few minutes at 3-0 where it looked like the Canes may fight back and make it a game, but the Oilers were just too tough. The Hurricanes were without Aaron Ward and Doug Weight, but Eric Cole managed to come back. I wouldn’t say he was really effective however.

Game 7 is going to be interesting. In Raleigh, I expect the fans to be as crazy as the Edmonton fans in game 6. I’m still holding strong and picking Carolina, but I’m glad I don’t have money on it.

So I was wrong. Wrong wrong wrong. Those damn Oilers have found a way to claw back into this series, winning in overtime in game 5. The game was pretty exciting, with 5 goals scored in the first period. Then it tightened up quite a bit, and went into OT deadlocked at 3. Then about three and a half minutes into OT, with Carolina on the power play, Cory Stillman tried to make a cross ice pass at his own blueline. His stick was partially hooked, which prevented Stillman from putting the mustard on the pass you would expect. Pasani intercepted the lame duck pass at the blueline, walked in alone, and beat Ward with a wrist shot over the glove.

Although I’m rooting for the Canes, I have to admire the Oilers’ pluck. They came back from a 2-0 deficit against the Sharks, and with Game 6 in Canada, I have to think there’s more than a decent chance it’ll go back to Carolina for Game 7. In which case I’ll be in hog heaven. There’s nothing better than NHL Game 7s. Except for Game 7s in overtime. So I’m sort of half-rooting for the Oilers at home on Saturday. If they win, I’ll have a dilemma- watch game seven on Monday or go to the “State of the Sharks” event at the Tank? I think I’d rather watch hockey than talk about it.

I picked the outcomes of game 3 and 4 correctly so far, and let’s see if I can keep the streak going. Carolina will win game 5 at home, and end the series. The Oilers are (were?) a good team at home, but so is Carolina. The Canes just move the puck too well, and while the Oilers’ thunderous hits in Edmonton sure got the crowd going, it didn’t help enough. Keep in mind that Carolina was minutes away from OT in game 3, so I wouldn’t say that physical play was the key. They just got a great goal late from Ryan Smyth.

Doug and I are going to the “State of the Sharks” presentation at the Tank next week. Maybe we can think of some questions to ask the Wilsons and Cheechoo. Of course we can’t ask them specific questions about off-season moves and expect them to get answers. Questions like “Which free agents specifically are you looking at, and what would you give up to get them?”. I’m hoping to get an idea of what kind of players the Sharks are looking for. Are we going to try and get a replacement for Ekman, who was pretty silent in the playoffs? What about a veteran D to help the youngsters? I would anticipate some questions about the “impending” goalie controversy, but frankly, I don’t care that much about it. Nabokov is still great, Toskala is great, and Nolan Schaefer is very good. Regardless of the combination the Sharks field next season, I think it’ll be fine. Personally, I would rather play Nabokov a bit before we trade him, because I’m confident his stock will rise once GMs see that he hasn’t lost it.

I found this unofficial list of free agents, and I’m drooling over some of the names there. Jovanovski, Kubina, Redden or McKee would be nice defensive pickups. On the offensive side, I’m looking at Doug Weight, Marc Savard, Sergei Samsonov, Patrick Elias, and Jason Arnott would be cool, though Dallas would never let us sign him. And don’t forget Owen Nolan! If the Sharks can get him for a song, I say take him- he’s a fan favorite.

So I’ve been AWOL, and Doug hasn’t been any better. The Sharks lose, the Oilers win, and the world goes topsy-turvy. I was on vacation for the middle of May, so I was spared the despair of watching the Sharks lose four straight. And then I managed to watch a bit of an exciting Eastern finals, and none of a boring Western one.

So now we’re here. Carolina vs. Edmonton. Before game 1, my feelings were mixed. I figured the Canes were a better team, but I might root a bit for the Oilers. Mainly because they beat the Sharks, and I just don’t like the idea of the Cup in a southern state. When the Canes are bad, no one comes to the games, just like Tampa. But Edmonton sells out every game, good, bad, or indifferent. I like to see Canadian teams win. But after watching a bit of game one, I couldn’t do it. I hate Chris Pronger (so much I’d like to see him play for the Sharks) and I hate Roloson even more. That dude is a major flopper. That’s one of my pet peeves in the NHL. The goalie goes behind the net or out of the crease for some reason, and if a person even touches them they fall down like they’ve been shot and run over by a bus at the same time. Roloson pulled this crap and got the call. But there’s a hundred guys trying to jockey for position in the crease and he stays upright, as solid as a rock.

So I start rooting for the Canes when they make it 3-1, and we watch the wheels completely fall off Edmonton. The Canes make it 3-3 very quickly, then it’s 4-4, and then it happens. Roloson actually gets run into for real, because his defensemen pushes somebody into him. He goes down, and is replaced by Ty Conklin, a goalie so strong he not only lost the starting job this year, he lost the backup job for a while and was sent to the minors. There’s about 5 minutes left in the game, and Doug turns to me and says “Conklin’s gonna cough it up- Hurricanes win.” And you know the rest. Conklin coughs it up behind the net, Brind’Amour has a wraparound with 31 seconds left, game over. Now we know that Roloson is out for the series.

I think the Canes will win now, more than ever. I’d be a complete moron if I thought different. But I do think the Oilers will make Carolina sweat a bit- they will win at least one game in Canada. But the Canes are winning again tonight.

We are now 6 days into the playoffs, and all of the series have played three games so far. I’ve only had the opportunity to see a few of them, though I’ve watched a lot of games. After the disconcerting 4-0 loss in Game 1, the Sharks seemed to have regained their offensive form, winning games 2 and 3 in pretty decisive fashion. Game 4 tonight in SJ is absolutely key. If the Sharks lose game 4, then game 5 is in Nashville, and we could be looking at game 6 down 3-2. We’ll be in the driver’s seat if we win tonight.

As for the other series, I sure know how to pick ’em. If the current leaders in all the series go on to win, I’ll be 2-6. All three of my underdog picks are losing (the Sharks don’t count as an underdog), and there are two huge upsets in the works in Edmonton and Montreal. Carolina, while not playing well, managed to win last night, so they could pull it out. Same with Detroit, but the Oilers have a history of being giant killers.

New prediction- Joe Thornton will have 2 points or more tonight.

Like the West, I’m picking two lower seeds to advance in the Easter Conference first round. Here are my thoughts:

Buffalo vs. Philadelphia – For some reason, the Flyers find a way to win the first round, then lose later. I’m predicting that trend will continue. I must say that this is the series that I’m least informed about- I have only seen Philly play a few times this season, and maybe Buffalo never. It could be that bias that’s causing me to pick against the Sabres- a team with balanced scoring but no stars. Afinogenov and Kotalik are good, but Forsberg and Gagne are better. If Forsberg gets hurt and misses a lot of time, I can see the Flyers losing this series. My prediction is that Forsberg stays intact for this round, and the Flyers advance.

New Jersey vs. New York (Rangers) – New York went on a horrible slide to end the season, and the Devils did just the opposite, winning 11 in a row. Martin Brodeur, as always, is the key to the Devils’ success. The Devils still play their brand of shutdown hockey, but their D isn’t as strong as past years, with Niedermayer and Stevens gone. I think the Rangers’ O will overcome the Devils’ D, with Jagr, Prucha, and Nylander all scoring. The Devils will need random goals from random players. Brian Gionta has 48 this year (where did he come from??), but after Scott Gomez, the scoring gets pretty scarce. No other Devil has over 20. When it comes down to it, I think the Rangers will have a better shot of shutting down Gionta than the Devils have of shutting down Jagr. This is a HUGE underdog pick, I think the Devils are -240 in Vegas.

Carolina vs. Montreal – Everyone is talking about the loss of Eric Cole, and it does hurt Carolina, but not as much as everyone thinks. I think Montreal may be able to steal a game or maybe two, but the ‘Canes are too strong. They have four good centers in Brind’Amour, Staal, Recchi and Weight (Weight is playing the wing now), and plenty of D. Add to that a breakout year in goal for Martin Gerber and the best faceoff man in hockey (Brind’Amour), and you’ve got a team that is in a position to win the Cup. Les Habitants are similar in makeup to Carolina, but just not as good. Cristobal Huet has really come on late in the season, but neither him nor David Aebischer are playoff tested. I just don’t think the Canadians can keep up.

Ottawa vs. Tampa Bay – Scott Burnside in ESPN has picked the Lightning to upset the Sens, but I don’t think he could be more wrong. Ottawa has had a terrible reputation for coming into the playoffs as a high seed, and folding in the first round. Everyone in town will be intent on not taking the 1-8 matchup lightly. The Senators will come out fast and hard, and Tampa Bay, while having one of the better defensive corps in the East, do not have the goaltending. They hoped that John Grahame would be the obvious #1, but they’ve ended up platooning him with Sean Burke. I see some big games in this series from the top line. Even if Kubina and Sydor can shut down the best line in hockey (Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza), Ottawa can hurt you with Havlat, Smolinski, and Schaefer. If Hasek doesn’t make it back, I can see the Senators being vulnerable in later rounds, but not in the first round.

Can’t wait for the first games tonight!

Actually, the matchups are set in both conferences, but I’m only going over the West today. I might be doing a little devil’s advocate work here, and pick some underdogs. Unlike ESPN, which makes for some pretty boring articles. Ok, they picked the Sharks, but as I talked about before, that’s hardly going out on a limb.

Nashville vs. San Jose – as a Sharks fan it’s tough to accurately handicap this series, so I have to go with the Sharks. They have the two hottest players in the league, against a disciplined team with a scrub goalie and several injuries. And their offense isn’t that great either. Pop quiz- who has more points- Patrick Marleau or Paul Kariya? Hint: it’s not Kariya. The bad news for the Preds is that Marleau isn’t even on the top line. Don’t get me wrong, the Preds will be a pain in the ass to play against, with Brendan Witt, Kimmo Timmonen and co. on the blue line. But I think our relatively inexperienced blue line coupled with the best goaltending duo in the NHL will be able to solve their offense. And no one in the league right now can stop Thornton and Cheechoo.

Calgary vs. Anaheim – This entire series hinges on one player – Mikka Kiprusoff. If the Kipper can look like he did in the 2003-2004 playoffs (and the regular season this year), the Flames will win. If he stumbles just a bit, the Ducks will steal some games, and the series will be on. My guess is that the complete lack of Calgary scoring will bite them bad, and the Ducks will be able to squeak at least one game out of the first two in Calgary. Anaheim is also a very good team at home, and I could see the series going back to Calgary for game 6 with the Ducks up 3-1. The Ducks’ top line of Selanne, McDonald and Kunitz is very good, and it’s not all Selanne. Another pop quiz: who has more goals- Andy McDonald or Marleau? Ok, that’s cheap – they’re tied with 34. I’m going with my gut on this one and picking the Ducks. It won’t be a cakewalk by any means; it’s going to go at least 6 games, and if the Ducks win, they’ll be very beat-up for the conference semis. But I’m still going to be a man and pick Anaheim.

Dallas vs. Colorado – As much as I want to pick Colorado, I can’t. The loss of Forsberg, the lack of consistent scoring from Tanguay and Hejduk, and a defensive corps of castoffs like Bob Bougner and Patrice Brisebois adds up to too many mistakes against a solid Stars team. Jason Arnott has been a force, Mike Modano, while rickety, still has some of the best moves in the NHL, and Sergei Zubov has got to be a Norris finalist. If Colorado gets another Conn Smythe performance out of Jose Theodore they might have a shot, but that’s a big if considering Theodore hasn’t had any quality minutes in months. I doubt this series will even go 6.

Detroit vs. Edmonton – You can say what you want about Manny Legace playoff experience, but the whole Jussi Markkanen-Dwayne Roloson goalie tandem isn’t exactly taking the league by storm. Detroit’s special teams play just too good, and they don’t have any holes other than general age. Without any explosive stars on the Oilers, they don’t have much of a chance. This could easily be a sweep.

Feel free to blast me in the comments section, and I’ll be back later this week to go over the Eastern Conference.

I’m a lazy ass. Suffering a little blog burnout here. Doug especially has been really busy. Ok, done with excuses. Now it’s time to talk about how bad I screwed up. In the last post, I basically said that the Sharks were done, and would need to go on a crazy tear to make it. I was right about the latter, but wrong about the former. The Sharks have gone 12-3-2 since then, for 26 out of a possible 34 points. They now have 97 points, and are guaranteed at least the 7th spot. They eliminated Vancouver last night, which was particularly sweet. Joe Thornton has had 7 points in the last two games, and is now tied with Jaromir Jagr for the NHL points lead.

What a run! If we win the next two games, we’ll clinch the 5th seed, which means we get to play the Predators. Talk about Christmas coming early this year- their all-world goalie, Tomas Vokoun, went out last week with some weird blood disease, and won’t be coming back this season. So the Preds will be playing Chris Mason, a 29-year-old journeyman with only 41 games of NHL experience. The old saw says that you win in the playoffs with hot goaltending (see JS Giguere in 2003) and I find it very difficult to believe that Mason will pull it together. The difference between playing Nashville and Calgary will be night and day. Kiprusoff is a Hart and Vezina candidate this year; the Flames could ride him all the way, the way they almost did in 2004. I think that could be a tougher matchup than even Detroit in the first round. If you make it past Detroit, which would be very difficult, you won’t be nearly as banged up as making it past Calgary.

Doug and I got playoff tix, so look for a playoff preview once the seedings are set, and game analysis once the games start. I’m so excited! We’re going to Fan Appreciation night on Monday too, so hopefully we’ll win some free stuff.

The season is 75% over, and the Sharks currently have 71 points, 5 out of a playoff spot. San Jose has won their last three games, and have three more home games to go before a 5 game road trip. Here’s my current status report, done in the same style as my half-season report:

Offense: The Sharks have scored 197 goals, 9th in the West. Their top line still scores very consistently (Thornton is the NHL points leader right now, and Cheechoo had his 4th hat trick of the season on Monday night). The problem is, the second and third lines aren’t scoring as much as I would hope. I predicted that Marleau would score more, and he has (29 goals, his career high). But the other young players that I thought would flourish against 2nd and 3rd line D have come up short. Michalek has only 13 goals. Goc has 15 points, and is -12. I think the top line has as much firepower as any other in the NHL, but if they hit a cold streak, I’ve seen zero evidence that other players will pick up the slack.

Defense: Still spotty. I expected the Sharks to be in the hunt for a veteran defenseman at the deadline, but no big moves happened. Hannan has gotten his +/- up to a -3, which is quite an accomplishment given where he was earlier in the year. Erhoff looks solid, Murray hits like a freight train, but the jury’s out on Gorges and Davison. On Monday, the Sharks gave up a goal twice on the shift following a Sharks goal. Everyone knows that a successful shift after you score is critical to keep the momentum, and the Sharks couldn’t keep it. On the positive side, the Sharks have looked horrible with 1-goal leads late in the game, and this time, they kept it without too much scrambling.

Special Teams: Both the PP and PK have improved since midseason- both are middle of the pack. I think I saw a stat a few weeks ago that said that the Sharks are over 20% on the PP since the Thornton trade. It’s amazing watching the D clear out when Joe has the puck on the half boards- they know how dangerous his passing is. I which he would shoot a touch more from that spot though.

Goaltending: I was very surprised to see the Sharks re-sign both Toskala and Nabokov, and not trade either. That being said, Toskala has clearly been the better goalie since the halfway point. It’s a good feeling knowing you have two quality goalies for the playoff run, but I wonder if there will be a controversy next season if Toskala continues to play well. Nabby had a great Olympics and will want to be the starter.

Looking Forward: The Sharks are picking up speed at the right time, but their margin for error is now very small. With LA, Vancouver, and Edmonton struggling, the Sharks must win every game against inferior opposition. The last two and a half weeks of the season are absolutely brutal- 10 games in 17 days in April. If I had to choose right now, I would say that the Sharks will not make the playoffs. But as a fan, I think of all the opportunities they have this month. if SJ can beat STL twice, and win the Chicago, Columbus, and Phoenix games, that will put us at 81 points with 10 games to go. If the Sharks can get 11 more points in April, I think they will make the playoffs. Only two of the games in April are against teams not in the top 8 (and one is against the Ducks, who are ahead of us), so that’s actually a pretty tall order.

Trading Note: I’m glad Niko Dimitrakos is gone, and I don’t really care that much about the Ville Niemonen pickup. While it would have been nice for Doug Wilson to get another D man, I’m glad he didn’t trade away high draft picks or young players to get a 3-month rental. There’s plenty of cap room, so I’m hoping for some free agent fireworks in the off season.