I’ve been formulating my offseason suggestions for GM Doug Wilson. There are several areas that need attention and, I think from his quotes in the paper and what Drew Remenda said in his interview on KNBR this week, us Sharks fans can expect change not only behind the bench, but in the roster as well. While I think a few changes are needed, Doug Wilson’s attention will likely be focused on evaluating which of the team’s current UFA’s and RFA’s will be back in Teal and which will be looking for new digs on July 1st. This is the first step to identifying this team’s core strengths and weaknesses – and along with this process must come the evaluation of which of the Sharks prospects might crack the roster. Who will be Mitchell and Segoguchi in 2008-09? Let’s start with the players who could walk away in July without any compensation, the unrestricted free agents – which the Sharks have ten.

The Sharks have 38M committed in salary for next season and we can assume the cap will be increased to around 56.3M. The Sharks have generally floated around 10M under the cap, so I think it’s fair to assume the team will only spend around 46M – so obviously there are many choices to make. I’ll try to keep track of the salary spent and how much the Sharks are under the cap, and who a player’s in house replacement might be. In no particular order.

PATRICK RISSMILLER – The Rizz has been an important part of our 3rd line the last two seasons, but we saw a considerable decline late this year. The Sharks lack of gritty 3rd line is near the top of my list of things to address this offseason and cutting ties with the Rizz is part of this process. A few guys on the UFA market are better options, and there may be one on this list or in the Sharks system – possibly T.J. Fox, Matt Jones, Tom Cavanaugh, Steven Zalewksi or Riley Armstrong. Good luck somewhere else, Rissmiller.

JEREMY ROENICK – J.R. has already implied he is coming back and I think, unless someone slips DW some crazy pills, J.R’s new deal should be announced shorty. I’m guessing one year/1M. Sharks cap now at 39M.

JODY SHELLEY – I love Shelley, but he didn’t win a single fight after going to the Sharks. He is still a great disturber and showed more offensive upside than most goons in the league, but Doug Wilson might be looking for a more functional agitator, someone like Sean Avery perhaps. Remember that little rumor of Bernier for Avery that was rejected by the Rangers – according to the NY Post, DW was ready to pull the trigger….I think Shelley isn’t coming back. Just a hunch.

ALEXEI SEMENOV – To me, this is easy. Goodbye. Get lost. The Sharks have better talent in their minor league system waiting to play the role of 7th d-man than Frankenstein, like Joslin, Spang or Brennan Evans. Save the cap room and cut ties with this waste of roster space.

SANDIS OZOLINSH – It looked like a genius move at first, but something happened down the road that derailed the Ozo-Comeback Train. He plummeted to the bottom of RW’s depth chart and there is nada chance that this reclamation project returns to Teal. Time to retire Sandis.

BRIAN CAMPBELL – I still believe that Campbell is going to resign with San Jose before the July 1st UFA bonanza begins. He wants to be loyal, he has friends here and the Sharks fans treated him like gold. While he isn’t the proto-type #1 d-man, those guys are hard to find. Unless the Bruins are willing to trade Chara for Marleau (not gonna happen) then Campbell is going to be back in Teal. He was willing to stay in Buffalo for around 5.5M, it was the term that turned him and his agent off. Campbell signs in San Jose, six years/36M. Sharks now have 45M in salary.

BRAD NORTON – Oh! My back! Never set foot on the ice, just cashed his checks and rehabbed his back. Seriously, I guess he has a major back problem and might need to retire. Good luck to you, Brad Norton – just not in a Sharks uniform.

BRIAN BOUCHER – Another guy who will be brought back. I think DW learned that not having a veteran backstop is not worth the risk. 1 year/750k. Sharks now at 45.75M.

DEMITRI PATZOLD- He was so good, the Sharks exposed him to waivers multiple times. Bye Bye Bye.

So, with J.R., Campbell, Boucher all back, the Sharks have to move to Taking Care of Our Own Part 2: Roster Casualties. With as deep a crop of talented RFA’s as anyone in the NHL, who is going to get traded to clear precious cap room? There are several candidates….but one step at a time.

Here’s a link to a recording of a Drew Remenda interview on KNBR.  Some interesting insights about the coaching vacancy, and other matters.

Step one has been taken. The long speculated, oft-debated coaching career of Ron Wilson has ended today in San Jose. While you can’t dispute the record and the success Ron Wilson has had behind the bench for the Sharks, he had taken this franchise as far as he was able to – season after season of playoff disappointment demanded that the Sharks head in a new direction. I think the timing of the decision shows a ton of class by the Sharks organiziation and Doug Wilson himself, to relieve RW in time for him to be considered for the head coaching openings across the league. Could he land in Toronto or Colorado? Possible….but not likely.

So, who will be the 7th coach in Sharks franchise history? Doug Wilson says that current staff Rob Zettler and Tim Hunter will get consideration, but that seems like a stretch to me. It’s quite possible those boys will be on staff until the new head coach is secured and, depending on their clout, both Zettler and Hunter could be “reassigned” within the organization. The list of candidates will make the rounds in the coming days. Pat Burns? Pat Quinn? Joel Quenneville? Bob Hartley? Dave Lewis? Paul Maurice? Larry Robinson? Dare we even say…Barry Melrose? Is it possible the Sharks will go way off the beaten path and hire a successful AHL coach? I would be suprised.

I’ve got a name for you – How about former Shark player and ex-Bruins coach, Mike Sullivan? He is a former teammate of Doug Wilson, having played in San Jose from 1991-1994 when he was claimed off waivers by the Calgary Flames. He has coached Joe Thornton in Boston and took a bum rap by GM Peter Chiarelli in the overhaul in Beantown. He took the Bruins to the playoffs in 2003-04, winning the Northeast Division title. Once Thornton got traded for that awesome package of Sturm, Stuart and Primeau – Sullivan’s team took a nose dive and the new GM wanted to start fresh, canning Sullivan in the process. After a little Google’ing, I found this collection of opinions from Boston sportswriters on Sullivan. It sounds like he was known as a players coach, has been described as “energetic and innovative” and was the type of guy in Boston who could get his boys to play hard night after night, sticking by his players and letting them play through the rough times. Sound like someone familiar? NOPE. Exactly. Mike Sullivan is everything Ron Wilson isn’t. He might not have the experience and definitely took some knocks for that in Boston, but this potential move smells of Doug Wilson. Someone unexpected and with a totally different philosophy. He has winning records as an AHL and NHL head coach, has International coaching experience as the head coach for the U.S. Men’s Team at the 2007 World Championships in Russia and was an Assistant Coach at the 2006 Olympics for the U.S.

I’d suggest keeping an eye on his name in the coming weeks. He is currently an assistant in Tampa Bay and, while there is certain to be debate, could quite possibly be the right man for the job in San Jose. He gets hired and Zettler (another former teammate and original Shark) and Hunter stay onboard to try and take this team to the next level we’ve all been waiting for. And remember…you heard it here first.

TSN reports that Ron Wilson has been fired by the Sharks. Let the speculation ramp up as to who the next coach will be, there are lots to choose from.

The season may be over for the Sharks organization and fans, but preparations have already begun for next season. I’ll be the permanent co-host on The Teal Spiel when it picks back up in September. The last show of the season was last night, and it’ll be moving to a different format for the rest of the summer. I know Chetan is working on a number of changes and improvements for the show, and I’ll be announcing those when they happen. It’s entirely possible the show will be on a different night or time (or both), and when all that is sorted out, I will let you know.

But it wont be quiet around here all summer; grier and I are already planning on taking the day of the draft (June 21) off from work. And I’m also considering taking July 1 off to watch the TSN free agent coverage all day. My obsession with hockey apparently has not yet peaked.

Want to know how much I hate Dion Phaneuf? This much.

Ok, maybe I’ll lose a little credibility, but I didn’t have that much to begin with. Either way, I avenged my first round loss against grier by beating him handily in the second round prediction department, 7 games off to 10. Good Rangers pick, by the way.

I did watch the Wings take Dallas apart last night, and I remembered when Detroit was up 4-0 in the second that I never posted my CF predictions. Now you have the Western one. Quick observation- Detroit makes decisions about 5 times faster than the Sharks do. If the guy with the puck isn’t going full speed, he quickly passes it to someone who is. There’s none of this “draw the defender to you to open lanes” crap. They make their own lanes with speed. Even when they have nobody around they still press the pace. And I was pretty shocked to see how effective it was against a speedy team like Dallas. The Stars got their counter-punch in the turnover that led to Morrow’s goal (how automatic is that guy?) but if Detroit has the puck 75% of the time, there’s not going to be enough mistakes to capitalize on.

For the East, now that Timmonen is out for Philly, they’re going to have even more trouble stopping the waves of Penguins looking for scoring chances. Only if Biron finds another gear (and I don’t even know if that’s possible, given how well he’s been playing) will the Flyers have a chance. Pittsburgh in five.

Clearly one of the biggest discussion topics for Sharks fans until July 1st will be the potential for signing Brian Campbell to a long term deal. Multiple reports around the trading deadline indicated the problem with Buffalo’s proposals wasn’t the amount of money, but the term of the contract. Rumors were that Campbell wanted more years than the Sabres were willing to give him. TSN reported shortly before the deadline that the Sabres offered him 3 years, less than $6M per year.

The question is, what is a likely amount that Campbell could get on the open market, and is he worth it?

The Calgary Flames actually offer a decent answer to the first question. They have two defensemen that bookend Campbell fairly well. On one side is Dion Phaneuf, a Norris nominee, huge hitter, pain in the ass, and solid 50-60 point player. Basically, Campbell’s offensive output plus physicality and a bit of defense. I say only a “bit of defense” because Phaneuf is barely in the top half of GAON/60 (that’s even-strength goals against per 60 minutes). Campbell is worse by about a quarter of a goal per game, but he’s better in GFON/60 (that’s even strength goals for per 60) by about a quarter of a goal.

Phaneuf starts a new contract next year, averaging $6.5M per year for six years.

On the other side of Campbell is Robyn Regehr. Regehr is a solid defensive defenseman, and we all remember his matchup on Jumbo the entire Calgary series. Regehr has a much better GAON/60 than Campbell (and Phaneuf, by the way) but his GFON/60 is a half-goal worse than Campbell. More or less what we would expect. All three players have roughly the same quality of teammates and quality of competition.

Regehr also starts a new contract next year, averaging $4M per year for five years. His individual stats this year were 20 pts, +11, and I’d say Calgary got a pretty good deal. Better than Hannan’s numbers, and Hannan got $4.5M.

Pretty clear Campbell falls within these two somewhere. One thing to mention- defensive defenseman are more available than a player with Campbell’s offensive skill, so a premium will be paid for that. Scarcity creates a market.

A third data point is Brian Rafalski. Rafalski had 55 points (same as last year with NJ) and was +27. He had a much better GAON/60 than any of the players mentioned above, and a better GFON/60 than anybody but Campbell. It should be noted his quality of teammates stat is off the friggin’ charts, so his numbers are inflated somewhat. Rafalski just started a contract that pays him $6M for five years.

I’d put Rafalski a bit above Campbell, so I think we’ve triangulated his market spot pretty accurately. Final verdict: 6 years, $35M. Given Campbell’s age and playing style (Phaneuf is going to get hurt more than Campbell, which is a nice way of saying Campbell is a bit of a wuss) I think he’s worth it. A power play QB is something the Sharks have needed for years, and now we have a great one right in our lap. The Sharks, for whatever reason, just don’t sign big-time free agents, and our early playoff exit (again) isn’t going to change that. All of our best players were traded for and re-signed, or drafted. Let’s add Campbell to that list.

Great story in the Merc today and on TSN that has a confident Jeremy Roenick all but confirming he will return in Teal next season for another run at Lord Stanley. He stood firmly behind Ron Wilson and expressed his desire for Doug Wilson to tweak the roster, not make whole-sale changes.

An interesting stance from a player who wears his emotions on his sleeve. If anyone might speak out against Ron Wilson, it could have been J.R., if not publicly but during his one on one meeting with DW. So it would appear that early signs point to maybe no coaching changes and DW rolling the dice one more time with these boys – who might have finally learned their lesson from their post season hard knocks.

I have two early predictions for the coming weeks.

1. Brian Campbell will resign with the Sharks before the UFA market opens and Doug Wilson will have to deal with how to clear the salary cap room afterwards. I think six years/36M will do the trick. He apparently loves it here and wants to play with Joe.

2. Brian Boucher will also be retained early, so the Sharks don’t have to go through those goaltending questions marks in camp. Sharks will need to act fast because Boucher’s value went up with his strong, yet limited performances during the season. He can still goaltend on the NHL level, with a good team in front of him.

I’m not sure how I feel/what to think about some of the other roster and coaching decisions that are ahead. I still need a few days.

So for the third year in a row, the Sharks bow out in game 6 of round 2.  I won’t be able to say anything about the game tonight and the Sharks this postseason without resorting to a bunch of lame cliches, so I will say this.  That fucking sucked.