The 2006 Olympics are here and the men’s hockey is off and running. Easy wins this morning for Finland, Sweden and Canada. Italy put up a decent fight and played with lots of passion in front of the home crowd – but Canada’s power play is going to be unbeatable in 2006. Canada can come at you with four amazing lines filled with size, speed and skill. Now that Hasek is down for team Czech, there’s only two teams that can cut them down. Team Sweden and, I’m saying this now….beware of Team Russia. This team has the ability to skate in and stun the big boys. Nabby is well rested and is more than capable of going on a major run. Here’s how I see the medal round playing out.

ROUND 1 – Canada over Kazakhstan. USA over Czechs (in an upset). Sweden over Germany. Russia over Finland.

ROUND 2 – Canada over USA (close one 7-5 Canada). Russia over Sweden.

GOLD MEDAL GAME – Canada vs. Russa. Canada wins 6-5.
Sweden takes the bronze.

You heard it here…from someone who has cash on Team Canada. They are just too good and too deep to lose.

The Sharks had a strong first and blockbuster second periods tonight in beating Dallas 6-3. Cheechoo had two goals, and even more promising, the power play looked very good. They had a 5-3 power play that immediately preceded Joe Thornton’s goal- he scored just a second or two after the 2 man advantage expired. And in other power plays, the puck movement was very good, shots came from the point through screens, and they cycled well.

The only down moments came in the 3rd when Dallas scored two goals in quick succession to make it 5-3 after the Sharks led 5-1 after two. I could sense the crowd reeling at the Tank, hoping the Sharks wouldn’t find a way to lose or tie, the same way they’ve done too many times this season. But Toskala had a couple of strong saves right after the third Dallas goal, the defense started clamping down, and the offense was actually trying to manufacture chances, as opposed to waiting in the neutral zone, and dumping it in every time they got possession.

The Sharks have to be shopping Toskala at this point. He’s played the last two games, despite Nabokov being re-signed to a 5 year deal. There’s no doubt in my mind that management is playing Toskala so other teams can see what he can do. I think trading Toskala is a good idea at point, provided two things- 1) that we get real long term value in return and 2) he goes to a team in the East. The Kiprosoff deal is still hurting the Sharks, witness the Sharks loss to them on Monday when he made 28 saves.

First, a photo I took at last nights game. I tried to post it from my Treo by attaching it to the email I sent in, but that didn’t work. Oh well.

Second, my Columbus pick was so good (they won 7-4 last night) that I thought I might retire from picking more games, but it’s too much fun. I think I will try to make it a little tougher on myself and pick mostly even games or underdogs.

Doug or I will post something on the breaking NHL gambling scandal soon… I need to do some more reading about it, and new information seems to come out every day.

Despite the Sharks playing prevent defense the entire third period, they manage to win 2-1. The first 5 minutes were bad, and the next 15 were worse. Niko Dimitrakos managed to take a dumb penalty with about 5 minutes left. Once we killed the penalty (barely) Niko comes out of the box and prompty missed a lead pass that was right on his tape. We need to send him to Cleveland. I hope the Sharks can retool before Dallas comes to town o Friday.

Kyle Calder had a pretty nice goal from a bad angle to put Chicago back within 1. The Sharks still dictated play- they’ve outshot the Hawks 30 to 16. It’s unnerving that SJ is only up by one considering the general beatdown.

End of the first, the Sharks lead 2-0. Marleau had a beautiful goal. The uck squirted out to one side while there was a scrum in front. Marleau turned around, and literally with one foot on the goal line, roofed it. Only a few inches of space, and he hit it.

The other goal was a little Joe Thornton tip from a Preissing point shot. The Sharks were clearly much faster than the Hawks the whole period, it’s easy to see why they suck so much.

I’m going to mobile blog from the Sharks game. Updates to follow…

I’m not going to make as many picks as Doug in this space, I’m more into stats and other analysis. But I’m going to show Doug up here today, and actually pick an underdog. It’s all well and good to pick Dallas, Ottawa, and Carolina, but today I’m picking:

Columbus (+110)

Yeah! Read it and weep. The Kings are on a long road trip, lost to Minnesota last night, a bruising team. They had to travel late to Ohio, where the Jackets have had an extra day to prepare. Rick Nash is on an absolute tear right now, and L.A. is plagued with injuries. The Kings are 3-0 in their last three meetings, but at least if I’m wrong, I went out like a man.

GAME PREVIEW
The Blackhawks stole a win in Phoenix last night 3-1. I hope Mrs. Gretzky didn’t play the over! Bad news for the Sharks tonight is they like to play “win one lose win” with the boys from Chicago. This is bad news because the Sharks won the last one….so they are due to lose this one.

Great news that Cheechoo got locked into a 5 year contract extension last night. He has developed into one of the best finishers in the game and would have commanded big cash on the open market. Signing Nabokov is the more puzzling move – he has been wildly inconsistent and in and out of Ron Wilson’s doghouse. I thought Nabby was more tradebait than cornerstone in Doug Wilson’s eyes. I’m pleased with the signing and I hope it will allow Nabby to relax. Expect Doug Wilson to move Toskala to an Eastern Conference team in need of goaltending. I would be shocked if he moved Vesa to Vancouver, Edmonton or Colorado – he won’t pull another deal that could burn him in the end, i.e. Kipper.

THE GAMBLER 5-0-0 $500.00
Ottawa at NY Rangers
Man..I’m a house of fire. This one was an easy pick for me, it jumped right off the board. Ottawa owns the Rangers and shows up in the Garden for a big bounce back win. I still think the Rangers are pretenders and prime for a collapse near the end of the season. The walls could start to crumble tonight.

PLAY: Ottawa -165

As Doug mentioned, the Sharks lost again last night to Calgary in San Jose. The Sharks currently have 56 points, 8 out of the last playoff spot. The number 8 team, Colorado, has 64 points in 55 games, earning 1.163 points per game. At that pace, they’ll have 95.418 points in 82 games, so let’s say 95 points for the sake of argument.

95 points for the number 8 seed is a lot. Last year (meaning 2003-2004), the #8 seed in the west, Nashville, had 91 points. The year before that Edmonton had 92 points and squeaked in. But as I’ve mentioned in previous posts, the West has the two toughest divisions in hockey this year, and the 3 worst teams as well, so the disparity will be large. But 95 still sounds like a lot, so let’s drop that down 2 to 93.

The Sharks have 29 games left, and would need to earn 37 points in those 29 games to hit 93 points. That’s 18-11, or better than .620 hockey. That includes 4 games vs. Dallas, and 2 each against Detroit and Vancouver. Assuming they go .500 against the three best teams in the West – a pretty charitable assumption considering they are under .500 against their own division – that means they need to play almost .700 hockey against Phoenix (0-4 this season), Anaheim (3-3), and L.A (4-1), among all the other West teams.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying the Sharks are done. How are they going to pick it up, when all the other West teams are picking it up too, jockeying for position in the playoffs?

But I still bleed teal, so I’ll be watching the games. I’m going this week against Chicago and Dallas.