Suggestion #3: Taking Care of Your Own – Signing our RFA’s
June 5th, 2008, 8:21 pm
After a little detour, let’s get back to reality and dealing with the tasks at hand.
Part three of my turn playing “If I Was Doug Wilson” is centered around this tricky business of what to do with our own restricted free agents. Will some rouge GM offer big money to RFA’s like Edmonton did last year with Penner (hit) and Vanek (miss)? Could Doug Wilson be forced into overpaying for one of his precious home grown talents? It’s possible…but I doubt DW will even let them hit the open market. Here’s what my plan of attack would be and then a summary of my current roster.
CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF – Some call him the most talented Sharks defensemen, I call him the most frustrating. Sure – he has an impressive skill set and we saw him attempt to transform his game from what he thought he was (power play quarterback) to what he is (defensive defensemen with some wheels). Yet – His mental lapses in his own zone at key times and frustrating give aways just make keeping him a less desireable option. I think Ehrhoff is a perfect example of where the Sharks need to do better – with two young studs in the wings (Wishart and Petrecki), holding on to Ehrhoff just “because” doesn’t serve the team’s goal of Stanley Cup. I think he has high value in the trade market to several NHL teams and Ehrhoff will bring a similar game to a guy like Rozsival without breaking a GM’s bank – I imagine he would get 2.5M in his next deal. I would trade Ehrhoff to a team in need of a young D-man, perhaps sending in exchange for a young forward RFA. Might the Flyers be interested for one of their young forwards?
Prediction: Traded for a young impact player, perhaps Scottie Upshall in Philly – 1.3M next season. Sharks now at 39.7M
JOE PAVELSKI – I think he is the most important RFA to get locked up right away – he could peak some interest around the league. Little Joe is a key member of the Sharks present and future, and he proved how valuable he is down the stretch scoring huge goals and fighting until the end. Pavs is only 24 and the Sharks 2nd line center for years to come. He’s a gamer and should only improve his totals, a guy with 60 point potential. Doug Wilson isn’t going to let him get away. I originally thought 5 years/18M would be the price, but after seeing Carolina snag Patrick Eaves for 3 years/4.2M, this sets a lower bar for keeping Pavs. Career stats are in line but Pavs get the nod for good health and more points per game, but just barely.
Eaves 168 NHL games 39 goals 37 assists 76 points +6
Pavelski 128 NHL games 33 goals 35 assists 68 points +5
Prediction: Signed for 4 years/10M, putting the Sharks now at 42.2M.
RYANE CLOWE – Clowe owes the Sharks. They stood by him during his DUI and his major injury and I hope he is mature enough to recognize that. Clowe is an up and coming player, but he doesn’t have the resume that Penner had last year when Edmonton stole him from the Ducks – so I’m not concerned about some team making a crazy offer sheet for Clowe given all the factors (DUI and major knee injury). Clowe should be a team guy and he will get rewarded down the line if his play continues to improve, if not by the Sharks by someone else. His payday will come further down the road.
Prediction: I would offer 2 year/4M, putting the Sharks now at 44.2M.
MARCEL GOC – I think his tenure is also done in San Jose. Goc probably has some value still and a team might be willing to give a late round pick or prospect for him. He wasn’t able to stay out of RW’s doghouse long enough to cash in on what several people thought was his chance to snag a spot on the 2nd line. Torrey Mitchell has passed him on the depth chart and the Sharks have players signed for cheaper in their system (TJ Fox) who can do the same things Goc does. He will be blogging from somewhere else next year.
Prediction: Dealt before July 1st for a non NHL ready mid level prospect.
The other RFA’s, like Tom Cavanagh, Lukas Kaspar and Mike Iggulden, should draw one year qualifying offers and be given the chance to win a roster spot in camp. Kaspar has been underwhelming at the AHL level, only notching 41 points last year. DW might be ready to cut ties, but LW depth is an issue for the Sharks, so Kaspar gets one more shot. Iggulden was an AHL All Star last year, racking up 66 points, but what role does he fill on the big club? His game, from what I know, isn’t that of 4th line checking center. He could get traded during camp. Cavanagh is the one who could crack the roster next year. He appears to play more a checking line role and could replace Plihal and Goc, if DW thinks he’s ready. I think he sticks – he’s the type of guy you won’t mind getting scratched and providing depth.
Prediction: Let’s assume one of these guys, Cavanagh, is on the roster with a salary of 0.7M. This brings the Sharks salary total to 44.9M before delving into the UFA and trade market. Here is what my roster would look like.
Thornton-Michalek-Cheech
Marleau-Pavs-Seto
Clowe-TBA-Upshall
JR-Mitchell-Cavanagh
Rivet-Campbell-Vlasic-Murray-TBA-TBA
OUT THE DOOR: McLaren, Ehrhoff, The Rizz, Grier, Goc, Plihal, Semenov and Carle
So it looks like the Sharks need two defensemen and a 3rd/4th line center. I’m ready to address that in the UFA, trade market and from within the Sharks own system/prospects. It will likely require the Sharks spending a little bit above their comfort level – will they do it? I think they have to.
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You almost had me with that one…until you gave a way Plihal. I was really impressed with his level of play when he had to step into Michalek’s spot in game 6, and even more suprised that he didn’t score. I think if he’s given another shot next year and is coached a little better, than RW did, he will be a good player.
Where did your starting figure of 39.7M come from?
The Sharks currently have just shy of $39M against next season’s cap including Greiss, who is in Worcester, and Roenick’s upcoming $1M.
But moving on…
After re-signing Campbell at let’s say $6M (since you have him listed on the roster), and your other signings, the Sharks ring in at $50M.
You have 5 or more players to sign with $6M. This looks like a downgrade from last year’s post-deadline roster.
As for the “out the door” list:
Carle should be given another chance. Sophomore slumps are common.
Grier has a NTC.
And some nitpicking:
I hope you don’t intend to have Michalek center Joe and Cheech. 😉
As for the fourth line, you’d probably want to convert Cavanagh to a LW. He’s the only lefty on that line.
The title of this blog entry is “Suggestion #3”. See Suggestions #1 and #2 for why I traded Carle, Grier (with his permission of course), resigned Campbell and other musings as I play fantasy GM and how I got that cap number of 39M. I think you took this a little too literally, tkaine. Lighten up brother and become a frequent reader – I hear it’s cooler than watching Sex and the City….atleast that’s what Mike tells me.
SoCal – I agree, Plihal is a tough call, and it could go either way. It might come down to money, and the Sharks could have players in the AHL who can do the same things that are already signed.
I read them all, I just didn’t remember those and include them in this. So my fault, my head went straight to the numbers. heh
As far as taking it too seriously, I’m pretty sure I’m not wound up about anything here. Except the insinuation that I would ever watch Sex and the City. You made my list for that remark. 😉
So having looked at it all at the same time:
I still wouldn’t part with Carle.
My only issue with Grier is that he ought to be on the fourth line to limit his ice time since his age is catching up with him, and then he becomes rather expensive for a fourth liner. But then you have lost half of the penalty killing forwards with Goc, Riss and Grier all leaving, so maybe one of them should be staying. Keep a cheapie like Rissmiller, perhaps.
I’d also hold onto Plihal.
I’m surprised at everyone’s feelings towards Plihal. He’s 24, has yet to crack the roster for any significant amount of time- he’s as good as he’s going to get, and it ain’t that good. There have to be 50 other guys on the bubble or in the AHL that can do what he does. I guess you could give him a league-minimum, two-way deal, but why not keep the roster spot open for a nice surprise, like Mitchell last year?
And tkaine, I’m surprised at you- I thought you were amongst those that thought Carle’s deal was too much money for a player not that good.
Mike-
I had sticker shock like anyone else as a knee-jerk reaction, but the chances are still high that he will develop nicely and by the end of that contract we will be looking at it saying “what a steal”.
With cap issues solved, as they are in this scenario, there’s little reason to move him. The return would be rather small considering his current trade value, and nobody is going to give the Sharks anything that outweighs what they could get for/from him if it was only a sophomore slump and/or not being suited to the previous season’s system of play.
Hell, even if he only performs as he did in his first full season, and doesn’t get any better (or worse), we’re just paying retail as his salary goes up along with the average NHL player’s salary.
So in short:
If he continues to slump, we have a problem on our hands, because his pay won’t be appropriate for his production for a team seeking immediate production. That’s the rub when your gamble goes south and that risk is there every time a contract is signed.
If he just plays as well as he is currently capable of, we break even.
If he develops, which is the most likely outcome and why the gamble was made in the first place, then the Sharks got away with another great cheap young player they can build around.
Unless cap issues are to the point of being nearly unsolvable and Carle must be moved for space in order to retain and/or acquire players that are all but guaranteed to perform consistently during the Cup window, Carle should stay.
I’d exhaust many other routes first (Like Grier’s attempt at trading… Grier. [you need a new nickname ;-)]) before jumping on the S.S. TradeCarle. I don’t want another Kiprusoff woulda-coulda-shoulda on our hands.
That having been said, should he continue to slump through next season, I’ll give my approval to throw him to the wolves as the deadline approaches, but I’m crossing my fingers and chanting “sophomore slump” for now.
One thing. Especially if you are talking ‘stud’ defensemen.
I do my ‘own’ scouting when I am watching junior hockey to compare to the ISS and CSB reports. I saw Ty Wishart (PG Cougars) play three times in a two week span in Vancouver, in PG and in Chilliwack. To be terse, he is prone to letting his dissatisfaction get to him and will take mights off. Yes, Prince George was terrible, but his skill set is great and so many times I saw him simply not care about the outcome, when he could clearly have changed it, or at least tried to.
believe me, i want him to be a good NHL dman, but I’ve seen this affliction happen to a number of talents. Here’s hopin’!
I think the above analysis is pretty good, along with the previous suggestion posts. However, I still don’t think DW will trade Carle before he gets rid of Marleau. Even if he doesn’t go to Columbus, he should be able to get us a decent young LW from another team. Plus, he gets rid of about 3 mil more per year than Carle, which is key considering Mitchell is an RFA next year and Seto the year after that.
Carle also gives us more longevity than Marleau and with the right coaching, could be a quarterback on a line other than Campbell’s. Once Couture makes it up (hopefully by 09/10), we could very well have 3 potent scoring lines, which would be supported by more than one offensive dman.
I know the Marleau to CBJ rumor may have been complete crap, but I really don’t think DW will be able to sit on his hands until round 3 in a draft as deep as this. Hopefully, we can get a top 12 pick for him and maybe another player (Grier? Ehrhoff?), but I’m confident DW will trade him for something in the first round.
Great comments. One of the things I admire about DW is that he has the best poker face in the NHL. Who knows what he has up his sleeve, but I agree bcsteve – the Sharks will find some way to get into the 1st round of this draft.
I actually wrote my own version of this scenario if you want to check it out. We agree on some things and disagree on others, but they have the some of the same ideas. Here’s the link:
http://my.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?user_id=45376&post_id=5338
I know, it’s been discussed elsewhere, but I’d be willing to bet good money that DW signs Bret Hedican to a short term contract in order to fill a defensive vacancy, a la JR. His numbers haven’t been all that great in recent years, but he would bring experience and a great skating ability to the tank. Maybe 1 year at 1.25?
You are one step ahead of me, bcsteve. I think Hedican could land in San Jose too – but 1.25M is a little low for a guy who led the Canes D in ice time last year.
I thought so too, but I figured there may be a hometown discount in play here. And despite his ice time, his point production has been down over the past two years. If we are able to sign him, along with Campbell, he would likely see less of the ice. Maybe the added rest could bring him back to 2005-06 form.
1/1.25M is a bit low, but DW has had the ability in the past to sign players for favorable amounts (except for maybe the Marleau extension). Assuming we keep most of our defensive corps intact and DW doesn’t find himself under the gun to sign a few, I can’t see Hedican getting any more than 3M over 2. But since he is moving to Northern CA anyways, I would not be surprised if this deal gets done later in the summer, once DW figures out where he is with the payroll and a coach is hired. If he hires a coach who emphasizes quality skating, and Ehrhoff is let go, I think this deal becomes a forgone conclusion.