rulururu
Two dudes blogging and podcasting about the San Jose Sharks, straight from sunny California.

post Suggestion #4: Adding some missing pieces on the UFA market

June 14th, 2008, 9:45 am

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

Okay, here’s part four of my attempt of trying to remodel the Sharks in the offseason. Remember, this is not what I think is going to happen – just what I might do if I was in DW’s shoes….My shot at playing Doug Wilson and roster moves has the Sharks sitting at 44.9M (roughly) with three major roster holes to address. I propose as GM that the Sharks should go out and get a new, younger enforcer to play on the 4th line, a veteran defensemen that can bring leadership and allowing a rookie defensemen a shot at the 6th spot instead of signing a veteran plug like Semenov.

THE ENFORCER
Darcy Hordichuk – Daniel Carcillo, who led the NHL in penalty minutes last season, said his toughest fight was against Hordichuk. Outside of Nashville, he isn’t well known, but he’s young and a total bad ass. Health has been a concern, but when able to play 74 games for Nashville in 2005-06, Hordichuk proved he can be more than just a goon, notching 13 points, a +9 and 163 PIM. I think he’s exactly what the Sharks need and, at 27 years old, fits the young core as well.
Signed@ 2 years, 1.6M. Sharks now at 45.7M.

THE VETERAN DEFENSEMEN – There are a few options here. I’ll break them down and then pick my favorite.

Jason Smith – Mike and I both think that Jason Smith could do wonders for the Sharks. He was voted by his peers in ESPN Magazine the “toughest hockey player” in the NHL, willing to play hurt and do whatever it takes to get on the ice. Smith dished out 142 hits and blocked 204 shots, while playing 18 minutes a game. He would instantly be the leader on the Sharks in both those categories, passing the Sharks leading shot blocker, Ehrhoff with 108 blocked, by a landslide. What else can I say to convince you? He’s 34, true. He reportedly has bad shoulder, true. He still managed 77 games last season and a full 82 the year before. Looking at what Aaron Ward got from Boston (2 years/5M), Smith will likely get more, but not much. I’d guess 3 years/9M.

Bred Hedican – Family ties might lure him back to the Bay Area with his wife Kristi Yamaguchi. I could see Hedican willing to play one more year and take a run at the Cup with the Sharks, playing a leadership role and operating on the powerplay with Brian Campbell. While he’s not overly physical, he can still block a shot (108 last season) and he led all Hurricane defensemen in ice time with 19 minutes per game. At age 38, he could fit nicely into the Sharks plans for a year. He might sign for 1 year/2.5M.

Mike Commodore – Mike and I advocated for Commodore to be acquired at the deadline and then he was dealt that same day to Ottawa. Go figure. He didn’t exactly perform well in a Senators uni (minus 9 and two points), but he did jump on the Ottawa Titanic right as it was sinking. His lackluster finish might have only dropped his price and he is still young at 28 with several good years of hard hitting hockey ahead of him. I think a contract similar to Ward’s is reasonable. 4 years/10M.

Bryce Salvador – This guy might got a little lost in the shuffle with some higher profile names on the market. Salvador can hit and thrives on being a defensive defensemen. He logs 20 minutes a game and has been around the block a little at age 31. While this wouldn’t be a big splash, Salvador would be nice to add to a core that right now needs a little toughness. Could probably be had for 2 years/5M, since he doesn’t bring any offense and has been injury prone year after year, only playing 64 games last season.

Brooks Orpik – Here’s a bit of a wild card. He’s 28 years old, he was born in San Francisco – might he want to parlay his Stanley Cup success into a homecoming to the Bay Area? He’s going to be a hot commodity on the UFA market, certainly one of the most fashionable. He might get Scott Hannan money and if Doug Wilson wanted to take a run and offer a long term deal to bring home a local boy, could 5 years/25M fill a major need for the Sharks? He’s certainly an upgrade over Ehrhoff, who is being asked to do the same things Orpik would.

My suggestion: I would say make a pitch for Orpik and hope the price is really more in the 4M range – if it gets too high, and I imagine it would, I would go straight to Jason Smith at 3 years, 9M. You have to look at what a player like this does for your team, see the effect CF Aaron Rowand has had on a talentless San Francisco Giants team this season. He demands hustle and hard work every night – and so does Jason Smith. I think the Flyers are fools to let him walk, but if they do, DW should snap him up. This puts the Sharks at 48.7M.

THE 6TH DEFENSEMEN
This is where I think the Sharks should let a young player without NHL experience have a shot at contributing for 10-12 minutes/night. Who could this be? Derek Joslin, who has solid offensive instincts but lacks true NHL size. Dan Spang, who has been a bit of a bust as a 2nd round pick in 2002 and his currently an RFA after two years in the AHL. Minor league tough guy Brennan Evans, could he earn a roster spot with toughness? How about Tom Walsh, another college defensemen, who had a good year with 36 points in Worcester. Or, could Ty Wishart get a shot to stick with the Sharks and learn on the job, paired with Jason Smith.

My suggestion: Let Derek Joslin have a shot at sticking with the big club and see what he’s got to offer. He’s under contract for one more year at 516,000. If Wishart excels in the AHL, then bring him up midseason and have Joslin on the bench as a scratch with some experience now. Sharks now at 49.2M

Okay now I’m done with the Sharks roster. Here’s how it would at 49.2M (roughly).

Michalek-Thornton-Cheechoo
Marleau-Pavelski-Setoguchi
Upshall-Mitchell-Clowe
Hordichuk-Cavanagh-J.R.

Rivet-Jason Smith-Murray-Campbell-Vlasic-Murray-Joslin/Wishart

Nabby and Boucher in net.

This doesn’t include bench players, which I think is very difficult to predict. What did I accomplish here? I kept the puck moving defensemen needs for McLellan to succeed on the PP, I gave the Sharks the toughest NHL defensemen who backs down to no one, we got a young enforcer in Hordichuk and a scrappy, 3rd line forward in Upshall. We kept heart and soul J.R. and Boucher in net and allowed a few rookies in Cavanagh, Joslin and Wishart the chance to contribute. We’ll see how any of this plays out in the coming weeks, it should be exciting and we should expect there to be some moves for sure. GO SHARKS!

post The Most Important Things at the NHL Awards Show

June 13th, 2008, 10:58 am

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

Now in easy-to-read-bulleted format, made in chronological order, based on the IM conversation grier and I had during the ceremony:

  • Adam Graves should have treated himself and bought a new tooth for the show. And gotten a tux not made of pleather.
  • Jason Blake looks bad, it’s almost as if he had cancer or something. Oh, whoops. Too harsh? How about the fact that he cried like Mike Schmidt?
  • When they asked the kid wearing the Sharks jersey what his favorite team was, and he didn’t say the Sharks, I wanted to kill somebody.
  • If I had to pick between Datsyuk’s unintelligible acceptance speeches or Sally Fields’ “You like me! You really like me!” speech, I think I’d go with Fields.
  • grier thought it was weak that Boudreau won because he didn’t coach the whole season, but my position remains that looking like Mickey Rooney trumps little faults like that.
  • When Ron McLean took that fake cell phone call , grier IM’d, “It’s Kevin Lowe with an offer sheet.” Much funnier than whatever crap McLean then said. And thank God that whole cell-phone-call-during-the-awards-presentation thing hasn’t been done before.
  • We all agreed Kane was going to win the Calder, but his speech was the BEST. Especially when he implied that all of his teammates want to have sex with his sisters.
  • What can you say about the Gordie Howe lifetime achievement award? I heard that already existed. It’s called the “Hall of Fame”. Tie: $1.99. Shirt: 3.50 at Old Navy. Suit: $32 at Goodwill. Stiches and dentist bills: $354,765 800 goals: priceless
  • When they did the split screen thing for the Norris, wasn’t it great how they cut half of Phaneuf’s face off so they could get Elisha Cuthbert fully in the frame? Smart choice, CBC producers. And they had to go back to them during Lidstrom’s speech.
  • I bet $5 that Broduer would win, and I’m eager to collect. People like SV% more than other stats, except when they don’t.
  • AO, yawn. I think he was living out his nightmare of standing in front of a room of people in his underwear- he looked that uncomfortable.

post I’ve Got a Good Feeling About This

June 12th, 2008, 10:42 am

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

There’s just something about how Doug Wilson and Todd McLellan looked together during the press conference. This looks like a good match – McLellan brings the qualities that so many of us were hoping for in a new coach. I like that he’s young, he’s a proven winner on every level, he comes highly recommended from the best in Scotty Bowman and he is looking to inject the Sharks with a new attitude – which this team desperately needs. We’ve all loathed the Sharks power play under Wilson, the non movement and static nature of Joe on the boards looking to make the perfect pass. Those days are surely done. We might actually see McLellan use a big body like Clowe similarly to how he used Holmstrom in Detroit – or even put Thunder Joe himself in front of the net.

What most impressed me during the press conference was the statement by Doug Wilson that McLellan called the Sharks the morning after he had just won the Stanley Cup with one thing on his mind, “When can I get to San Jose to interview for the job?”. He wanted this job. He wanted to be here. E.J. Hradek discussed this morning on NHL Live that he heard Doug Wilson called McLellan at the airport on Tuesday after they spent two days together and asked him to postpone his trip to interview for Atlanta. The fact that McLellan did just that – throwing away any chance that Atlanta would interview him after doing that – also shows how much he wanted to be there.

One thing that was pointed out in the Mercury News today is that we often forget that DW did not hire Ron Wilson, he inherited him. In the end, this is his first chance to get a coach that completely melds with the roster he has assembled since 2003. This goes back to teamwork, working together with a partner in a coach that is on the same page as you across the board. McLellan and Doug Wilson seem to have this understanding already, and that could be a major piece in the Sharks taking the next step we fans are all waiting for.

On a side note, you have to believe that the hiring of McLellan means that Brian Campbell isn’t going anywhere. Getting a powerplay specialist coach who is used to having Rafalski, Schneider and Lidstrom on the point and then not giving him the roster to operate with would have been discouraging for McLellan, I’m sure. This topic must have come up during their meetings. There’s no point in having a high tempo, puck possession coach when you don’t have the quarterback to start the break. This gives even more hope that Brian Campbell isn’t going anywhere and a deal could be struck after the draft when the Sharks clear the cap room needed to make the deal.

I’ve got a good feeling. It’s a solid way to officially start the offseason in San Jose.

post Todd Who?

June 12th, 2008, 8:50 am

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

I admit, if you asked me before this post-season to name a Detroit assistant coach, I wouldn’t have been able to tell you about Todd McLellan. I do remember Drew Remenda dropping TM’s name a few times during a broadcast or on Shark Byte. Actually, if you asked me to name any NHL assitant head coaches, I think my over/under would be around 5. Hunter, Zetz, Tocchet, Lewis, Sullivan, Granato (until recently) …. uhhh… Joe Kocur? No wait, he’s in the league office.

You see what I’m getting at- assistant coaches operate in relative obscurity. They have their sphere of influence, the power play, the defensive lines, whatever it may be, but the head coach is out front, and takes the hit for any mistakes or breakdowns. I’ve never once heard a coach throw an assistant under the bus. I’m not implying that TM is not capable of handling the pressure and media scrutiny an NHL head coaching job brings, but I don’t doubt it will be a new and sometimes surprising experience.

On the contrary, when I review TM’s resume, the one word that pops to mind is ‘ambitious’. Minor league head coach in his early 30s. NHL assistant in his late 30s. And now, at 40, his first ‘administration’. His been angling for a job like this for years, and no doubt he’s thought about it often. I don’t think there is a more qualified candidate that didn’t have head coaching experience. For a team that is close to the brink of a Stanley Cup championship, I think I would have liked to have had a coach that had been there before, or at least had NHL bench boss time under his belt. But DW likes to go a bit off the path, and I admire him for it. He’s forgotten more about hockey than I’ll ever know. I appreciate his desire to avoid a “retread” and get a guy that’s young and enthusiastic. But it’s a bit of a risky move. If TM fails quickly, then both of their jobs are on the line, and DW knows it.

I hope he’s ready. I hope that pressure of coaching a contender is offset by the relatively mild SJ press corps. I hope that the success he enjoyed in Detroit is contagious. As Vince Lombardi said, “Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.” I hope he can maintain the Sharks winning habit in the regular season and break the bad habit of losing in the playoffs.

I’m excited.

post New Coach: Todd McLellan

June 11th, 2008, 3:27 pm

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

Pollak is reporting that Todd McLellan will be announced as the new head coach of the Sharks tomorrow.   I guess this takes Doug Wilson’s admiration (he practically wore an “I LOVE THE RED WINGS” T-shirt at the State of the Sharks) to a new level.  Not that I think it’s a bad idea.  I’m just a little grumpy that so much flattery is thrown Detroit’s way.

McLellan reportedly ran the power play and offensive lines for Detroit, so I think we all can anticipate an improvement in those areas.  It will be interesting to see who the assistants will be, and if the Sharks will finally get a goalie coach.

post Ron Wilson returns and the Sharks are still coachless

June 10th, 2008, 12:35 pm

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

My life sucks right now. I’m laid up after having tendon surgery on my ankle, so my days are filled with watching NHL Live on the NHL Network, playing NHL 08, and wearing out my Blockbuster card. So, it should be no surprise to anyone that I saw the live Ron Wilson press conference this morning on TV, and he made an effort to charm the Canadian media. The coverage I saw appeared to go well, with Ron showering high praise on Vesa Toskala as an equal to Nabby, stating that he would “flip a coin to see who was going to play each night” and also that he knows Pavel Kubina was almost a Shark last year, and that he could quite possibly have been the missing piece San Jose needed on the blueline, and if the Sharks had acquired Kubina, “I might not be sitting here right now”, Wilson said. Interesting comments – a slight backhanded slap to Brian Campbell and Kyle McLaren (who the Sharks would have traded in that deal). Ron made no guarantees about the playoff future of the Leafs, but was quick to point out the immediate turn around the Flyers had last season, going from worst to the Eastern Conf. finals.

The rumor mill continues to swirl about who the next coach of the Sharks will be. An Ottawa sports blogger has gone so far as to declare Bob Hartley as their new coach, so if you want to believe him – remove Hartley from the list. So who does this leave that we have heard was not just being considered, but has actually been interviewed.

Joel Quenneville – If it was going to be him, it would have happened by now. Some reports have Joel Q. miffed over money offered, but I just have a hard believing it ever got that far. He doesn’t fit the description of what Doug Wilson says he’s looking for. Isn’t Joel Q. just a less successful version of Ron Wilson?

Todd McLellan – This makes sense from the standpoint that DW loves the Red Wings, want to model the Sharks in their style so bringing in their top assistant would do the trick. The fact that there has been no announcement means that DW was likely waiting to talk to McLellan after the Stanley Cup finals. He has reportedly also interviewed in Atlanta.

John Tortorella – Some call him the front runner. Some say he’s a terrible fit. I think he’s a proven winner with all the traits that DW described that he’s looking for…plus he would likely bring assistant coach, Mike Sullivan, with him – my original pick for head coach, but clearly he isn’t a candidate.

Mike Milbury – Was he interviewed? DW acknowledged they spoke at the Cup finals. He destroyed the Islanders as a GM, trading away promising player after player. I can’t see him working out as a coach after running a team, too many cooks in the kitchen – especially one that has burned the meatloaf as many times at Milbury. Please no.

Kevin Dineen – Rumor has it that DW asked permission from the Ducks to interview Dineen, an underrated player and successful AHL coach. He could be the dark horse in all of this and has been linked to several other NHL gigs.

Peter DeBoer – a new name now linked to San Jose, he was discussed at length on NHL Live this morning by EJ Hradek. Hradek felt it would be a big mistake, that a Junior coach would not be ready to assume a team with aspirations of taking the next step such as San Jose, but he confirmed that DeBoer was in the mix, from what he had heard.

That’s it. The main players from the rumors and reports I have read. It appears Pat Burns and Pat Quinn aren’t in the mix for any of these gigs. They are too high profile to go unnoticed. I am going to say that by this time next week, we will know who it is. Doug Wilson won’t wait much longer, especially if he’s after a guy who might be desired by another NHL team as well. As for a prediction, it’s so hard to know. If we are going to pay attention to any of the clues he has dropped at State of the Sharks, it could very well be McLellan. Either way, we’ll know soon – especially with the LA Kings firing Crawford today, the race for the best available coaches is officially on.

Who do you think it will be?

post Suggestion #3: Taking Care of Your Own – Signing our RFA’s

June 5th, 2008, 8:21 pm

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

After a little detour, let’s get back to reality and dealing with the tasks at hand.

Part three of my turn playing “If I Was Doug Wilson” is centered around this tricky business of what to do with our own restricted free agents. Will some rouge GM offer big money to RFA’s like Edmonton did last year with Penner (hit) and Vanek (miss)? Could Doug Wilson be forced into overpaying for one of his precious home grown talents? It’s possible…but I doubt DW will even let them hit the open market. Here’s what my plan of attack would be and then a summary of my current roster.

CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF – Some call him the most talented Sharks defensemen, I call him the most frustrating. Sure – he has an impressive skill set and we saw him attempt to transform his game from what he thought he was (power play quarterback) to what he is (defensive defensemen with some wheels). Yet – His mental lapses in his own zone at key times and frustrating give aways just make keeping him a less desireable option. I think Ehrhoff is a perfect example of where the Sharks need to do better – with two young studs in the wings (Wishart and Petrecki), holding on to Ehrhoff just “because” doesn’t serve the team’s goal of Stanley Cup. I think he has high value in the trade market to several NHL teams and Ehrhoff will bring a similar game to a guy like Rozsival without breaking a GM’s bank – I imagine he would get 2.5M in his next deal. I would trade Ehrhoff to a team in need of a young D-man, perhaps sending in exchange for a young forward RFA. Might the Flyers be interested for one of their young forwards?

Prediction: Traded for a young impact player, perhaps Scottie Upshall in Philly – 1.3M next season. Sharks now at 39.7M

JOE PAVELSKI – I think he is the most important RFA to get locked up right away – he could peak some interest around the league. Little Joe is a key member of the Sharks present and future, and he proved how valuable he is down the stretch scoring huge goals and fighting until the end. Pavs is only 24 and the Sharks 2nd line center for years to come. He’s a gamer and should only improve his totals, a guy with 60 point potential. Doug Wilson isn’t going to let him get away. I originally thought 5 years/18M would be the price, but after seeing Carolina snag Patrick Eaves for 3 years/4.2M, this sets a lower bar for keeping Pavs. Career stats are in line but Pavs get the nod for good health and more points per game, but just barely.

Eaves 168 NHL games 39 goals 37 assists 76 points +6
Pavelski 128 NHL games 33 goals 35 assists 68 points +5

Prediction: Signed for 4 years/10M, putting the Sharks now at 42.2M.

RYANE CLOWE – Clowe owes the Sharks. They stood by him during his DUI and his major injury and I hope he is mature enough to recognize that. Clowe is an up and coming player, but he doesn’t have the resume that Penner had last year when Edmonton stole him from the Ducks – so I’m not concerned about some team making a crazy offer sheet for Clowe given all the factors (DUI and major knee injury). Clowe should be a team guy and he will get rewarded down the line if his play continues to improve, if not by the Sharks by someone else. His payday will come further down the road.

Prediction: I would offer 2 year/4M, putting the Sharks now at 44.2M.

MARCEL GOC – I think his tenure is also done in San Jose. Goc probably has some value still and a team might be willing to give a late round pick or prospect for him. He wasn’t able to stay out of RW’s doghouse long enough to cash in on what several people thought was his chance to snag a spot on the 2nd line. Torrey Mitchell has passed him on the depth chart and the Sharks have players signed for cheaper in their system (TJ Fox) who can do the same things Goc does. He will be blogging from somewhere else next year.

Prediction: Dealt before July 1st for a non NHL ready mid level prospect.

The other RFA’s, like Tom Cavanagh, Lukas Kaspar and Mike Iggulden, should draw one year qualifying offers and be given the chance to win a roster spot in camp. Kaspar has been underwhelming at the AHL level, only notching 41 points last year. DW might be ready to cut ties, but LW depth is an issue for the Sharks, so Kaspar gets one more shot. Iggulden was an AHL All Star last year, racking up 66 points, but what role does he fill on the big club? His game, from what I know, isn’t that of 4th line checking center. He could get traded during camp. Cavanagh is the one who could crack the roster next year. He appears to play more a checking line role and could replace Plihal and Goc, if DW thinks he’s ready. I think he sticks – he’s the type of guy you won’t mind getting scratched and providing depth.

Prediction: Let’s assume one of these guys, Cavanagh, is on the roster with a salary of 0.7M. This brings the Sharks salary total to 44.9M before delving into the UFA and trade market. Here is what my roster would look like.

Thornton-Michalek-Cheech
Marleau-Pavs-Seto
Clowe-TBA-Upshall
JR-Mitchell-Cavanagh

Rivet-Campbell-Vlasic-Murray-TBA-TBA

OUT THE DOOR: McLaren, Ehrhoff, The Rizz, Grier, Goc, Plihal, Semenov and Carle

So it looks like the Sharks need two defensemen and a 3rd/4th line center. I’m ready to address that in the UFA, trade market and from within the Sharks own system/prospects. It will likely require the Sharks spending a little bit above their comfort level – will they do it? I think they have to.

post Latest Marleau Rumor is to Columbus

June 2nd, 2008, 12:05 pm

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

David Pollak is reporting a rumor that has Marleau and an unspecified player going to Columbus for the #6 overall pick and Nikolai Zherdev. First of all, the unspecified player is the gating item, but if he’s yet unspecified, that means he’s probably not a top-line player. The most worrisome names in that group would be Clowe or Pavelski. For either of those two, I say no deal. But if that name is Ehrhoff, Carle, Grier, or McLaren, I say bring it.

Why? Two big reasons. One, the Sharks finally get Marleau’s (and maybe sombody else’s) hefty contract of the books, potentially freeing up room to sign Brian Campbell or other free agents. An additional benefit would be the ability to give the C to a player that is more suited to the role. Two, the Sharks get a young scorer in Zherdev (one more year at $3.25M, then restricted free agency) who can put points on the board. As Pollak pointed out, he would have been the second leading scorer on the Sharks. That would give the Sharks three potential thirty goal scorers with Michalek and Cheech.

In addition to Zherdev, the Sharks would get the #6 overall pick in what most hockey people consider a very deep draft. If the cards fall right, we might be able to get a guy like Nikita Filatov (Hockey News has him projected at #4) . Or, more likely, a guy like Colin Wilson or Kyle Beech (described by one scout as “a 6-3 Sean Avery”).

Can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs, Sharks fans. This trade may be just what the cook ordered- a pure scorer and the flexibility to sign some free agents. Plus a top-flight prospect to boot.

post Let’s Float Something Crazy…

May 31st, 2008, 4:20 pm

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

Okay, okay. Everyone who reads this blog on a semi-regular basis knows that I read Hockeybuzz. I just can’t help myself – I’m a sucker for a good rumor. Something caught my eye today that made my wheels spin, that the San Jose Sharks might be talking trade with Tampa Bay for the #1 pick in the draft – Stamkos. Sounds crazy right? Maybe not….think of what the Sharks can offer without totally gutting their core that would make Tampa Bay instantly better, get a rising young star who will be NHL ready next year and clear out the cash to keep Brian Campbell.

To San Jose: 2008 #1 pick (Steve Stamkos)
To Tampa Bay: Patrick Marleau (6.1M), Ryan Clowe (RFA), Christian Ehrhoff (RFA) and 2009 1st round pick.

Think about this from Tampa Bay’s perspective, they get one NHL All Star in Marleau to replace Richards, and two good young/affordable players in Clowe and Ehrhoff to rebuild their team for only about 10M in salary. The Sharks add a young stud for cheap (.9M for his first three years) and lose 9M in salary, enough to sign Campbell to a big deal and throw some cash around in the UFA market. Couldn’t you see Doug Wilson being the only person who could shed salary and add a superstar in the process? I’m not saying we should….but I’m asking – do you think we could?

On a smaller front, if this Stamkos business sounds a little too wild for your taste, what about DW going after Blake Wheeler, the former 5th pick of the draft in 2004 who turned down the final contract offer from Phoneix to become an unrestricted free agent. He is a college player, which DW loves, he is a big forward with a scoring touch – which we lost when Bernier was traded. Could Wilson sign Wheeler instead of trading for a draft pick? Possible. Very possible.

post Captain Obvious Says: Salary Cap Doesn’t Fix NHL Financial Disparity

May 28th, 2008, 9:51 am

Filed under: blog — Written by Doug

So the main man grier has spent the last couple of posts breaking down how the Sharks might sign, re-sign, trade, or ditch certain players in order to get better and (here’s the trick) meet financial goals. One of the big barriers we see as Sharks fans is the unwillingless/inability of the team to spend up to (or near) the salary cap, projected around $56M/team for next season. Personally, I’d be surprised if the Sharks even spend $50M, and as an amateur capologist myself, I’m always interested in that sort of thing.

On a higher level, Mark Cuban recently explored how salary caps affect the pro leagues, and there’s a specific point I’d like to highlight. National revenues (like TV deals) are counted as overall league revenues, but so are local revenues. If a specific market has some breakout growth, it benefits that market in that they get to collect the money, plus it raises the salary cap, putting pressure on other teams to spend more.

While the CBA was being negotiated, it was to the owner’s benefit to make their teams look as poor as possible. For teams that were owned by big companies that had their fingers in all sorts of hockey-related pies (like the Rangers, Kings, and Flyers) this is pretty easy to do. But now, I might argue that it’s in the owner’s benefit to make their teams look quite rich. For instance, if MSG (the company that owns the Rangers, Madison Square Garden and the TV channel that broadcasts the majority of Rangers games) just suddenly decided that the Rangers should really be making $60M more from the TV deal, that counts towards league revenues, and will have the end result of raising the cap for every team in the league by over a million dollars. The Rangers actually get the cash (sort of), and the other teams then have to spend it, or risk being less competitive.

I believe deals like the CBA do have a compression benefit on the league, in that the spending difference (and hopefully thus the quality) of the 30 teams isn’t as disparate as say, the Yankees (who spend $200M on the team) vs. the Pirates (who spend about a buck and a half). But after a few years, with the Rangers, Stars, Flyers, and Red Wings all making it deep in the playoffs, I don’t think this CBA enables all teams to be truly competitive, something the NHL sold as a benefit to the cap.

The question is, can the Sharks be part of that group? I think the Sharks are in that second tier, where good management and drafting can help push them over the top, sort of like the Penguins. As far as the Pens go, some combination of Malkin, Crosby, Stall, Letang, and Malone will no longer be with the team two or three years down the road. They will have to draft and trade well again, with the richest teams taking those players away- unrestricted free agency is at only 26 now, as opposed to 31 before the new CBA. In a few years, I fear we will see over half the teams closer to the salary floor than the salary cap, with the biggest market teams driving league money through growth in local revenue.

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