Pollak is reporting that Todd McLellan will be announced as the new head coach of the Sharks tomorrow.   I guess this takes Doug Wilson’s admiration (he practically wore an “I LOVE THE RED WINGS” T-shirt at the State of the Sharks) to a new level.  Not that I think it’s a bad idea.  I’m just a little grumpy that so much flattery is thrown Detroit’s way.

McLellan reportedly ran the power play and offensive lines for Detroit, so I think we all can anticipate an improvement in those areas.  It will be interesting to see who the assistants will be, and if the Sharks will finally get a goalie coach.

My life sucks right now. I’m laid up after having tendon surgery on my ankle, so my days are filled with watching NHL Live on the NHL Network, playing NHL 08, and wearing out my Blockbuster card. So, it should be no surprise to anyone that I saw the live Ron Wilson press conference this morning on TV, and he made an effort to charm the Canadian media. The coverage I saw appeared to go well, with Ron showering high praise on Vesa Toskala as an equal to Nabby, stating that he would “flip a coin to see who was going to play each night” and also that he knows Pavel Kubina was almost a Shark last year, and that he could quite possibly have been the missing piece San Jose needed on the blueline, and if the Sharks had acquired Kubina, “I might not be sitting here right now”, Wilson said. Interesting comments – a slight backhanded slap to Brian Campbell and Kyle McLaren (who the Sharks would have traded in that deal). Ron made no guarantees about the playoff future of the Leafs, but was quick to point out the immediate turn around the Flyers had last season, going from worst to the Eastern Conf. finals.

The rumor mill continues to swirl about who the next coach of the Sharks will be. An Ottawa sports blogger has gone so far as to declare Bob Hartley as their new coach, so if you want to believe him – remove Hartley from the list. So who does this leave that we have heard was not just being considered, but has actually been interviewed.

Joel Quenneville – If it was going to be him, it would have happened by now. Some reports have Joel Q. miffed over money offered, but I just have a hard believing it ever got that far. He doesn’t fit the description of what Doug Wilson says he’s looking for. Isn’t Joel Q. just a less successful version of Ron Wilson?

Todd McLellan – This makes sense from the standpoint that DW loves the Red Wings, want to model the Sharks in their style so bringing in their top assistant would do the trick. The fact that there has been no announcement means that DW was likely waiting to talk to McLellan after the Stanley Cup finals. He has reportedly also interviewed in Atlanta.

John Tortorella – Some call him the front runner. Some say he’s a terrible fit. I think he’s a proven winner with all the traits that DW described that he’s looking for…plus he would likely bring assistant coach, Mike Sullivan, with him – my original pick for head coach, but clearly he isn’t a candidate.

Mike Milbury – Was he interviewed? DW acknowledged they spoke at the Cup finals. He destroyed the Islanders as a GM, trading away promising player after player. I can’t see him working out as a coach after running a team, too many cooks in the kitchen – especially one that has burned the meatloaf as many times at Milbury. Please no.

Kevin Dineen – Rumor has it that DW asked permission from the Ducks to interview Dineen, an underrated player and successful AHL coach. He could be the dark horse in all of this and has been linked to several other NHL gigs.

Peter DeBoer – a new name now linked to San Jose, he was discussed at length on NHL Live this morning by EJ Hradek. Hradek felt it would be a big mistake, that a Junior coach would not be ready to assume a team with aspirations of taking the next step such as San Jose, but he confirmed that DeBoer was in the mix, from what he had heard.

That’s it. The main players from the rumors and reports I have read. It appears Pat Burns and Pat Quinn aren’t in the mix for any of these gigs. They are too high profile to go unnoticed. I am going to say that by this time next week, we will know who it is. Doug Wilson won’t wait much longer, especially if he’s after a guy who might be desired by another NHL team as well. As for a prediction, it’s so hard to know. If we are going to pay attention to any of the clues he has dropped at State of the Sharks, it could very well be McLellan. Either way, we’ll know soon – especially with the LA Kings firing Crawford today, the race for the best available coaches is officially on.

Who do you think it will be?

After a little detour, let’s get back to reality and dealing with the tasks at hand.

Part three of my turn playing “If I Was Doug Wilson” is centered around this tricky business of what to do with our own restricted free agents. Will some rouge GM offer big money to RFA’s like Edmonton did last year with Penner (hit) and Vanek (miss)? Could Doug Wilson be forced into overpaying for one of his precious home grown talents? It’s possible…but I doubt DW will even let them hit the open market. Here’s what my plan of attack would be and then a summary of my current roster.

CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF – Some call him the most talented Sharks defensemen, I call him the most frustrating. Sure – he has an impressive skill set and we saw him attempt to transform his game from what he thought he was (power play quarterback) to what he is (defensive defensemen with some wheels). Yet – His mental lapses in his own zone at key times and frustrating give aways just make keeping him a less desireable option. I think Ehrhoff is a perfect example of where the Sharks need to do better – with two young studs in the wings (Wishart and Petrecki), holding on to Ehrhoff just “because” doesn’t serve the team’s goal of Stanley Cup. I think he has high value in the trade market to several NHL teams and Ehrhoff will bring a similar game to a guy like Rozsival without breaking a GM’s bank – I imagine he would get 2.5M in his next deal. I would trade Ehrhoff to a team in need of a young D-man, perhaps sending in exchange for a young forward RFA. Might the Flyers be interested for one of their young forwards?

Prediction: Traded for a young impact player, perhaps Scottie Upshall in Philly – 1.3M next season. Sharks now at 39.7M

JOE PAVELSKI – I think he is the most important RFA to get locked up right away – he could peak some interest around the league. Little Joe is a key member of the Sharks present and future, and he proved how valuable he is down the stretch scoring huge goals and fighting until the end. Pavs is only 24 and the Sharks 2nd line center for years to come. He’s a gamer and should only improve his totals, a guy with 60 point potential. Doug Wilson isn’t going to let him get away. I originally thought 5 years/18M would be the price, but after seeing Carolina snag Patrick Eaves for 3 years/4.2M, this sets a lower bar for keeping Pavs. Career stats are in line but Pavs get the nod for good health and more points per game, but just barely.

Eaves 168 NHL games 39 goals 37 assists 76 points +6
Pavelski 128 NHL games 33 goals 35 assists 68 points +5

Prediction: Signed for 4 years/10M, putting the Sharks now at 42.2M.

RYANE CLOWE – Clowe owes the Sharks. They stood by him during his DUI and his major injury and I hope he is mature enough to recognize that. Clowe is an up and coming player, but he doesn’t have the resume that Penner had last year when Edmonton stole him from the Ducks – so I’m not concerned about some team making a crazy offer sheet for Clowe given all the factors (DUI and major knee injury). Clowe should be a team guy and he will get rewarded down the line if his play continues to improve, if not by the Sharks by someone else. His payday will come further down the road.

Prediction: I would offer 2 year/4M, putting the Sharks now at 44.2M.

MARCEL GOC – I think his tenure is also done in San Jose. Goc probably has some value still and a team might be willing to give a late round pick or prospect for him. He wasn’t able to stay out of RW’s doghouse long enough to cash in on what several people thought was his chance to snag a spot on the 2nd line. Torrey Mitchell has passed him on the depth chart and the Sharks have players signed for cheaper in their system (TJ Fox) who can do the same things Goc does. He will be blogging from somewhere else next year.

Prediction: Dealt before July 1st for a non NHL ready mid level prospect.

The other RFA’s, like Tom Cavanagh, Lukas Kaspar and Mike Iggulden, should draw one year qualifying offers and be given the chance to win a roster spot in camp. Kaspar has been underwhelming at the AHL level, only notching 41 points last year. DW might be ready to cut ties, but LW depth is an issue for the Sharks, so Kaspar gets one more shot. Iggulden was an AHL All Star last year, racking up 66 points, but what role does he fill on the big club? His game, from what I know, isn’t that of 4th line checking center. He could get traded during camp. Cavanagh is the one who could crack the roster next year. He appears to play more a checking line role and could replace Plihal and Goc, if DW thinks he’s ready. I think he sticks – he’s the type of guy you won’t mind getting scratched and providing depth.

Prediction: Let’s assume one of these guys, Cavanagh, is on the roster with a salary of 0.7M. This brings the Sharks salary total to 44.9M before delving into the UFA and trade market. Here is what my roster would look like.

Thornton-Michalek-Cheech
Marleau-Pavs-Seto
Clowe-TBA-Upshall
JR-Mitchell-Cavanagh

Rivet-Campbell-Vlasic-Murray-TBA-TBA

OUT THE DOOR: McLaren, Ehrhoff, The Rizz, Grier, Goc, Plihal, Semenov and Carle

So it looks like the Sharks need two defensemen and a 3rd/4th line center. I’m ready to address that in the UFA, trade market and from within the Sharks own system/prospects. It will likely require the Sharks spending a little bit above their comfort level – will they do it? I think they have to.

David Pollak is reporting a rumor that has Marleau and an unspecified player going to Columbus for the #6 overall pick and Nikolai Zherdev. First of all, the unspecified player is the gating item, but if he’s yet unspecified, that means he’s probably not a top-line player. The most worrisome names in that group would be Clowe or Pavelski. For either of those two, I say no deal. But if that name is Ehrhoff, Carle, Grier, or McLaren, I say bring it.

Why? Two big reasons. One, the Sharks finally get Marleau’s (and maybe sombody else’s) hefty contract of the books, potentially freeing up room to sign Brian Campbell or other free agents. An additional benefit would be the ability to give the C to a player that is more suited to the role. Two, the Sharks get a young scorer in Zherdev (one more year at $3.25M, then restricted free agency) who can put points on the board. As Pollak pointed out, he would have been the second leading scorer on the Sharks. That would give the Sharks three potential thirty goal scorers with Michalek and Cheech.

In addition to Zherdev, the Sharks would get the #6 overall pick in what most hockey people consider a very deep draft. If the cards fall right, we might be able to get a guy like Nikita Filatov (Hockey News has him projected at #4) . Or, more likely, a guy like Colin Wilson or Kyle Beech (described by one scout as “a 6-3 Sean Avery”).

Can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs, Sharks fans. This trade may be just what the cook ordered- a pure scorer and the flexibility to sign some free agents. Plus a top-flight prospect to boot.

Okay, okay. Everyone who reads this blog on a semi-regular basis knows that I read Hockeybuzz. I just can’t help myself – I’m a sucker for a good rumor. Something caught my eye today that made my wheels spin, that the San Jose Sharks might be talking trade with Tampa Bay for the #1 pick in the draft – Stamkos. Sounds crazy right? Maybe not….think of what the Sharks can offer without totally gutting their core that would make Tampa Bay instantly better, get a rising young star who will be NHL ready next year and clear out the cash to keep Brian Campbell.

To San Jose: 2008 #1 pick (Steve Stamkos)
To Tampa Bay: Patrick Marleau (6.1M), Ryan Clowe (RFA), Christian Ehrhoff (RFA) and 2009 1st round pick.

Think about this from Tampa Bay’s perspective, they get one NHL All Star in Marleau to replace Richards, and two good young/affordable players in Clowe and Ehrhoff to rebuild their team for only about 10M in salary. The Sharks add a young stud for cheap (.9M for his first three years) and lose 9M in salary, enough to sign Campbell to a big deal and throw some cash around in the UFA market. Couldn’t you see Doug Wilson being the only person who could shed salary and add a superstar in the process? I’m not saying we should….but I’m asking – do you think we could?

On a smaller front, if this Stamkos business sounds a little too wild for your taste, what about DW going after Blake Wheeler, the former 5th pick of the draft in 2004 who turned down the final contract offer from Phoneix to become an unrestricted free agent. He is a college player, which DW loves, he is a big forward with a scoring touch – which we lost when Bernier was traded. Could Wilson sign Wheeler instead of trading for a draft pick? Possible. Very possible.

So the main man grier has spent the last couple of posts breaking down how the Sharks might sign, re-sign, trade, or ditch certain players in order to get better and (here’s the trick) meet financial goals. One of the big barriers we see as Sharks fans is the unwillingless/inability of the team to spend up to (or near) the salary cap, projected around $56M/team for next season. Personally, I’d be surprised if the Sharks even spend $50M, and as an amateur capologist myself, I’m always interested in that sort of thing.

On a higher level, Mark Cuban recently explored how salary caps affect the pro leagues, and there’s a specific point I’d like to highlight. National revenues (like TV deals) are counted as overall league revenues, but so are local revenues. If a specific market has some breakout growth, it benefits that market in that they get to collect the money, plus it raises the salary cap, putting pressure on other teams to spend more.

While the CBA was being negotiated, it was to the owner’s benefit to make their teams look as poor as possible. For teams that were owned by big companies that had their fingers in all sorts of hockey-related pies (like the Rangers, Kings, and Flyers) this is pretty easy to do. But now, I might argue that it’s in the owner’s benefit to make their teams look quite rich. For instance, if MSG (the company that owns the Rangers, Madison Square Garden and the TV channel that broadcasts the majority of Rangers games) just suddenly decided that the Rangers should really be making $60M more from the TV deal, that counts towards league revenues, and will have the end result of raising the cap for every team in the league by over a million dollars. The Rangers actually get the cash (sort of), and the other teams then have to spend it, or risk being less competitive.

I believe deals like the CBA do have a compression benefit on the league, in that the spending difference (and hopefully thus the quality) of the 30 teams isn’t as disparate as say, the Yankees (who spend $200M on the team) vs. the Pirates (who spend about a buck and a half). But after a few years, with the Rangers, Stars, Flyers, and Red Wings all making it deep in the playoffs, I don’t think this CBA enables all teams to be truly competitive, something the NHL sold as a benefit to the cap.

The question is, can the Sharks be part of that group? I think the Sharks are in that second tier, where good management and drafting can help push them over the top, sort of like the Penguins. As far as the Pens go, some combination of Malkin, Crosby, Stall, Letang, and Malone will no longer be with the team two or three years down the road. They will have to draft and trade well again, with the richest teams taking those players away- unrestricted free agency is at only 26 now, as opposed to 31 before the new CBA. In a few years, I fear we will see over half the teams closer to the salary floor than the salary cap, with the biggest market teams driving league money through growth in local revenue.

At THE STATE OF THE SHARKS, Doug Wilson made it clear that he never enjoys trading a player – but sometimes it is necessary to improve the team by either the salary cap gained or the player coming back in return. With the Sharks in a salary cap crunch, with several holes to fill and their own RFA’s to tend to, there are two key players and one whipping boy from last years team that I think suggest parting with in 2008-09. As fantasy GM, I left the Sharks at 45.75M after my suggestions of resigning J.R. (already happened), Boucher and Brian Campbell.

KYLE MCLAREN (2008 salary 2.5M) – McLaren isn’t the player he used to be, whether that is due to injuries or Ron Wilson’s coaching style that restricted his physical play or some combo of both – McLaren has been replaced by Murray. I know, I know – even in limited action, Big Mac led the Sharks in hits last year, but these were not the bone crushing variety we’re used to seeing as McLaren flies towards some poor sap, ready to pin him on the boards with a McLaren hip check. Those days appear to be over…and thus, so is McLaren’s term in San Jose. We will miss you and your yellow visor. Prediction: Traded for a 4th round pick on draft day.

MIKE GRIER (2008 salary 1.75M) – Grier was a disappointment last year, and for a guy who is supposed to be a driving force in the locker room and on the ice, there were times when us fans and Sharks broadcasters noticed Grier looked disinterested and unmotivated. Could he be traded for a young grinder/LW on a veteran hockey team looking for 3rd line help, perhaps back to Buffalo for Drew Stafford (0.9M) or to Washington for a big body like Dave Steckel (0.5M). I like Grier – he is my namesake after all – but I think the Sharks need to get meaner on the 3rd line. Prediction: Traded for a young player before July 1st.

MATT CARLE (2008 salary 3.0M roughly) – Part of me thinks that DW won’t give up on Carle, but he does have to shed salary if he keeps Campbell, and I’m inclined to think that Marleau and Cheechoo are sticking. Last year might be chalked up to second year blues and a bad relationship with Ron Wilson – and there enough teams out there in need of a young defensemen. I haven’t forgotten that Carle was on the All Rookie team in 2006-07, and I’m sure there are a dozen GM’s who haven’t forgotten either. He could even be moved in exchange for another young player, perhaps Philly would swap Scotty Upshall for Carle to improve their blueline. Prediction: Traded on draft day for a mid-1st round pick.

This clears about 7.3M in cap room, putting the Sharks at 38.4M, which would help DW’s efforts to resign his RFA’s and take an impact player in return here. There are other questions now, like which RFA’s are staying and which are going and how many rookies are going to be on the team next year. All this and then a look at what players might be out there via trade/UFA market.

zzzzzzzzzzzzz…….

Is it over yet?

Good lord – That was ninety minutes of my life I will never get back. What was a well intentioned opportunity for the Sharks fans to speak their minds and ask questions of the “brain trust” Doug Wilson and Greg Jamison – it turned into a free for all of lame questions and bizarre ramblings that left the panel puzzled and me utterly frustrated. While there were a few interesting tid-bits of information uttered between the cliches from DW and Jamison and awkward pauses from Cheechoo, I left early – I just couldn’t take it anymore. The Sharks must screen these questions – there were people babbling about the 49ers in the 80’s, musing about the power play and inviting Cheech to visit them in Gilroy. The voices in my head – make them stop. Next year, please screen the questions, make the fans write them down and have your moderator ask them.

Now for the interesting info.

1) As predicted, J.R. has resigned for a rumored one year/1M dollar deal. Excellent work by DW. In response to a question challenging whether or not the Sharks have been active in the free agent market in the past, his comments were that the Sharks take care of their own – case in point, resigning J.R. The Sharks have kept Thunder Joe, Marleau, Michalek, Rivet – all before they hit the open market. Looks like we can expect more of the same with DW locking up key pieces like Pavelski and Clowe….and I think Brian Campbell. DW also brought up how the Sharks have been active in the trade market….could this be a clue.

2) DW also stressed that everyone is responsible for Ron Wilson being fired, and that this would NOT be the only change made before next year. Someone won’t be back. Looks like that someone isn’t Cheechoo since DW was heaping praise on him all night – so he can sleep at night knowing he won’t be uprooted this summer.

3) DW dropped a major hint that the Sharks are looking for a hard nosed coach, a “butt kicker”. So, cross Melrose, Granato and my suggestion, Mike Sullivan, off the list. Wilson says they have a list of 40 candidates, people who have contacted them expressing interest including AHL, Junior, College and former NHL coaches. He emphasized that former NHL coaching experience is not a pre-req for consideration. The way he was talking, it seemed as if current assistant coaches, Tim Hunter and Rob Zettler, were no longer in the running. He never mentioned them once.

Unless there are some major changes in the format – I’m gonna skip this event next year. While interesting in spurts – overall the State of the Sharks was a snooze….

So I nailed the conference finals pretty well, only off by a single game combined in both series. Overall, I went 6-2 in the opening round, 2-2 in the conference semis, and 2-0 in the conference finals, for a combined record of 10-4. Respectable, but not transcendent.

As for the finals, I have only one hope, and my prediction reflects that hope. I want the series to go as long as possible. The conference finals were pretty anticlimactic, with both series jumping out to 3-0 leads. I just want to see some good hockey, with games in doubt until the end, which is more that I could say for the ultimate games in the last round.

I’d say the story of the playoffs so for has been the way the Pens have quietly played very good defense. With the 8,000 time Norris winner and old man river, everyone expected the Wings to be strong defensively, and they haven’t disappointed. But the largely unknown Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi, Kris Letang, and Hal Gill have played very well for Pittsburgh. And their only well known D-man (Gonchar) has played even better, despite being known as a scoreboard threat. I expect the series to be the most offensively exciting series of any we’ve seen yet this year. And I hope to the gods of hockey (that’s means you, Barry Melrose) that the series goes at least six.

Detroit in seven.

So grier gets the season ticket holder pack a couple of days ago, and lo and behold, the Sharks have raised ticket prices again. Not that much of a surprise I guess, but the real surprise is that it was over 10%. Again. We are in section 124, and our first year, 2005-2006, we paid $54/seat. Now, for the upcoming season, we will have to play $67- a 25% increase in only two years. Factor in the roughly $500 I paid for playoff tickets, and we’re talking well over 3 grand a year. I guess I can’t give my wife any crap for shopping now.

Because of this blog and my burgeoning radio career (which don’t exactly offset the cost), I’m almost obligated to renew. I suppose I could move upstairs, but as my mother has often said, a luxury once sampled quickly becomes a necessity. Also, we like the people we sit with, and I’d hate to ditch them. There’s really only one reason why SVSE raised prices- because they could. The market will bear it. I think the games last year were about 98% full, and there’s enough elasticity in the market to handle another 10% increase.

The thing that smarts almost more than the price hike is the fact that the Sharks were 27th in the league last year in payroll, and over $5M below the league average. Only Columbus, Nashville, and Phoenix spent less. That’s not going to change. So for our extra ten percent we’re likely to see some players run out of town (or not re-signed) because the Sharks don’t want to spend to the new cap limit, around $56M. I can imagine some very testy questions being posed tomorrow night in the Ice Insights discussion.