The rumor mill has kicked into another gear with Dany Heatley and the Sharks, and the dudes roll that into their now-weekly Crazy Trade segment.  After more listener emails, Mike and Doug do a quick breakdown of all the Eastern teams, and rate their off-season moves so far.

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Looks like the Heatley rumors have gained in frequency and intensity.  I just happened to have seen this a second ago:

A league source said Tuesday in Toronto that Dany Heatley will be traded to the San Jose Sharks “in the next two days”.

Stay tuned.

Wow.  Anyway, that’s basically the main focus for this week’s podcast, so check it out.  However, I also just read this quote in David Pollak’s latest:

I do have it on good authority that there won’t be any big-time distractions between now and 11 a.m. Thursday, so don’t hold your breath on those Dany-Heatley-to-San-Jose rumors leading anywhere just yet.

Who the hell knows?  It seems that the Sharks are the last man standing when it comes to Heatley, and if Brian Murray is really trying to get a deal done, there seems to be a good chance that Doug Wilson will take his time, and maybe try to pull off a “Joe Thornton 2 – This Time It’s Personal” kind of a trade.  That’s the message when you’re dangling Cheechoo and Ehrhoff for Heatley.  Let’s be honest- a GM would only take that deal if they are over a barrel.  Which Brian Murray is.

Some GMs seem to be thrill seekers.  How else would explain Glen Sather signing both Chris Drury and Scott Gomez for over $7M a year?  That’s a high risk-high reward stuff.  Doing coke off a stripper’s stomach while driving kind of stuff.  And now Sather has done it again this off-season, by signing Marian Gaborik for another $7M+ per year.

Doug Wilson doesn’t seem to be one of those guys that likes to take chances like that.  On the plus side, you don’t get stuck with these gigantic contracts for many years.  On the minus side, it could be death by a million papercuts.  Maybe Michalek’s deal isn’t the best deal ever.  But you couple that with Vlasic, Cheechoo and Ehrhoff making over $3M per, and Murray making $2.5M per, and you’re at the gates of Cap Hell.  The good thing is these contracts are easier to move, so I would take the smaller movable deals rather than the big job-buster, but Heatley is definitely in the latter camp.

Doug estimated how likely it was that Heatley was coming to the Sharks, and that number surprised me (I’ll make you listen to it to find out what it is).  What’s your estimate, and if this major deal does happen, is it a sign that Doug Wilson is starting to play fast and loose?

Before I get started – check out our Facebook page for the Dudes on Hockey podcast. Yup – we’ve officially sold out.

On our latest podcast, Mike and I review the winners and losers so far in the Western Conference based on UFA singings, trades or just lack of movement and believing in their work-in-progress. Without rehashing everything, here are the two best and two worst teams in the West so far, in my opinion. I didn’t include the Ducks because, well…I think they’re going to miss Pronger more than they realize…and the Avs are obviously losers – so why state the known.

BEST: Los Angeles Kings – By keeping Jack Johnson with a wildly reasonable deal for someone who will likely be an Olympian in 2010, adding a Stanley Cup winner in Scuderi and a premium scorer and character guy in Smyth, the Kings are on the brink of being a playoff team and now certainly in the conversation with upstarts like St. Louis and Columbus. The real question for LA remains in net, and why they didn’t offer Martin Biron the same $$ he got from the Islanders I don’t really understand, especially for one-year – but Dean Lombardi has kept the young guys and continued to layer on the veterans. This could be the year it pays off for LA. I’m not thrilled about their progress, as a Sharks fan.

WORST: Edmonton Oilers – If they don’t end up bribing, convincing, forcing Heatley into moving West to the cold side of hell, then they are screwed. Penner, Smid and Cogliano will all be staring at Kevin Lowe wondering what the hell is going on, and Lowe might be painted into a corner into moving all three for less than value – well, Smid has no value and neither does Penner really with that contract, let’s be honest. Bringing in ‘Bulin works only if they have a defense to stop anyone – which I’m not sure they do. It could be a shooting gallery in Edmonton, they did cough up the 5th most shots per game last year with an average of 32.5. I say good, let them be cold losers. Eskimo Pie anyone?

BEST: Columbus Blue Jackets – Keep to the script. They made giant steps last season and kept their marquee player for the future and added one of the best 3rd line guys in the NHL in Pahlsson. This team is all about Steve Mason, solid team defense and Rick Nash. I think they need a PP guy but otherwise, this team is continuing to be molded into a Ken Hitchcock special. Another playoff appearance looks likely.

WORST: Nashville Predators – What the hell are they doing? Well, nothing obviously. I understand money is an issue, so why then throw it around to a guy with a wrecked back. The rest of their division is getting better and the Preds act is growing old. I think they could slip to the bottom on the NHL this year, staring a top five draft pick in the face in 2010 and be big sellers at the deadline.

Still nothing from the Sharks, so the dudes lean on their most precious resource- the listeners.  Like the lady said, treat them well and let them lead the way.  In addition to listener emails, the Mike and Doug run down how each of the Western Conference teams did, and continue on with Crazy Trade.

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This sure sounds like JR is hanging ’em up.  And you know what?  I’m happy about that.  JR is a great presence in the room, and I’m sure he helped a lot of the young players learn about life and success in the NHL.  But there are two reasons why I’m glad (if it’s true):

1. I don’t like to see great players go out with a whimper.  Not that he’s going out with a bang (13 points in 42 games last year), but there sometimes it’s a little sad to see a legend try and make it happen when they are barely hanging on.  Claude Lemieux is an obvious parallel.  Not that I think Lemieux embarrassed himself or anything like that, and not that I want to begrudge a guy who loves hockey a chance to give it another go-round, but you like to think of Roenick in his prime- skating hard, hitting hard, scoring goals, eating steak in Vancouver, etc.
2. You have to really contribute on the ice.  Even last year, there were flashes of the ‘old’ JR, making something happen, but too often his minutes were uneventful.  For a supposed Stanley Cup contender, you don’t want to have uneventful minutes, even on the 4th line.

Reading this over again, it sounds like I’m trying to disparage one of the greatest American-born hockey players ever.  That couldn’t be further from the truth.  Rather, I’m encouraging him to move to the next stage in his hockey career, hopefully involving a broadcast booth, a front office, or even a league or PA office.  Or a podcast, hehe.

Speaking of which, the newest episode is out.

Mike and Doug are in full killing-time mode, considering we are in the middle of the summer, and the Sharks have laid low thus far.  It doesn’t keep the Dudes from talking hockey, engaging with the listeners, and making wild predictions.

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I’m sure fans are abuzz over the recent article by Mark Emmons.  Although, the title is “Sharks’ G.M. Preaches Patience”, there are a couple of significant tidbits in there:

1. Nabby would waive his no-trade clause if asked.  He hasn’t been asked.
2. Marleau would give up the captaincy if asked.  Again, he hasn’t been asked.

Second thing first.  I said back in DOH 49 that I thought the captaincy needs to change.  If that means Marleau has to leave, so be it.  Looks like DW might share my evaluation, and it also looks like there’s some flexibility there.    One, you have to admire Patty for his willingness to “ do whatever it takes to get this team to the next level.”  It’s a bit of an awkward situation to be sure.  But this is the very definition of putting the team first.  For all those Marleau haters out there, you can suck it.

Now first thing second.  Nabby seems like a proud guy, and I can understand the sentiment of wanting to be wanted.  But the natural question to me is, why have an NTC at all?  It seems, especially considering the recent trials and tribulations of Dany Heatley, that an NTC really never works in the players favor.  If you choose to exercise it (a clause that both parties agreed to in the contract, remember) then the player can be made out to seem like a problem child.  And if you, like Nabby, would waive it if asked, there’s no point in having it in the first place.

Along that vein, I do see the point in an NMC, which also covers a player being waived.  Not to bring up a sore subject, but if Kyle McLaren had an NMC, he wouldn’t have spent last season in the AHL.  Frankly, I think that’s a big reason why he’s still unsigned- he was out of sight and out of mind.  It puts teams in a tougher spot- the Sharks probably would have had to make a potentially unfavorable trade to either move Kyle or another player- but I don’t think it carries the stigma of refusing a trade.  Hard to blame a guy for not wanting to stay in crappy hotels and get bussed around New England.  Maybe they should invent an NWC- a no-waive clause.  Player could get traded to another NHL team, but not demoted.

The third thing that’s worth mentioning from the article, is this statement.

“I get the idea of instant gratification and people not understanding why we’re not doing everything today,” Wilson said. “But this team only needs to be built by the trade deadline. Big deals take time and patience. You have to wait for the moons to align.

“Are we done? No.”

This reiterates what we’ve said many times, and on the most recent podcast- DW is interested in doing something, and he’s not going to tell us about it.  Sucks if you’re impatient, but that’s the way he’s always been.

Perhaps the most exciting and groundbreaking things didn’t happen to the Sharks this week, but there was a little movement.  Mike and Doug talk about the little news there is, and engage in what the offseason is all about- conjecture and wild speculation.

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This might be the right place to break down all the things that have happened to the Sharks recently, like the Nichol signing, the new assistant coach, etc., but it’s summer, and we are too lazy.  We’ll just talk about it instead on the latest podcast.  A lot of your comments in the previous thread sparked discussion, so check it out.  Of course, things being how they are, we know for a fact there will be a trade sometime before training camp, but we’ll just tear our hair out waiting for it to happen.  And hoping that the Sharks don’t get reamed.

Since we’re still extremely starved for news (the reported Nichol signing hasn’t even materialized yet), I thought I’d share a bit of Heatley/Sharks trivia I hadn’t heard before – and a reason why these rumors might have some legs after all…

According to ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun, Sharks Assistant GM Wayne Thomas is a “good friend of the Heatley family”. The dots are slowly starting to connect here. If Thomas is vouching that Heatley is getting a bad rap in Ottawa, where the team has been severely mismanaged and he has dealt with four coaches in the last four years. While he’s gone about it all wrong, I can’t exactly blame him for wanting to get out of Dodge.

So – we’ve discussed at length the pros and cons of the Sharks trading for Heatley. Pro: the obvious, this guy can flat out play and might be one of the best snipers in the entire NHL. Check out where he ranks amongst the top post-lock out snipers.

Ovechkin 209
Kovalchuk 189
Heatley 180
Iginla 159
Hossa 151
Nash 105

It is hard not to salivate thinking about adding a guy with 50 goal talent to the best passer in the league. He is also a solid playoff performer, with 35 points in 34 career playoff games – including a run to the Cup in 2007. The cons: well, he’s demanded a trade for the 2nd time in his seven year NHL career and he carries a $7.5M cap hit until 2014.

Since we now have the “Wayne Thomas” connection, I don’t think I can discount the possibility of this being a reality anymore – BUT – I could see Doug Wilson trying to paint the Senators into a little bit of a corner, like what Don Waddell did to Brian Murray when he dealt Heatley to Ottawa in 2005. That deal included the more accomplished (and more expensive) Marian Hossa and veteran defensemen Greg DeVries. DeVries was making $2.3M at the time and Hossa was making $6M – Heatley was making $4.5M. So, what Waddell did was make the Senators give a top four d-man who went on to play the PK, PP and even strength minutes for the Thrashers in their playoff run and a very good player in Hossa.

Could Doug Wilson do the same to Murray here? Could he insist on the Senators (who are also in cap hell and actually 2M over the cap at this point) take on some Sharks “problem” players in the deal or insist that the Senators give another decent asset in the process, someone like say Anton Volchenkov? We can offer a winger signed long term, a puck moving defensemen and an underachieving sniper for a top ten player in the league and a really solid top four blueliner. Hell – ask the Sens to toss in a former Shark that has developed into a decent 4th liner in Shean Donovan (.6M) and the money is almost even.

To Ottawa: Michalek, Ehrhoff, Luko and Cheechoo (11.9M in cap hit)
To San Jose: Heatley, Donovan and Volchenkov (10.6M in cap hit)

You tell the Senators, “we don’t give a #$%& about your cap problems. Send down Luko if you want or make another trade – but if you want us to take Heatley, you’re going to have to give us Volcheknov (or Chris Phillips).”

This is the type of deal I could see Doug Wilson angling towards here. You have the Sens in a terrible spot – so make them part with a sweetener to take out their trash.