We’re a week past the opening of free agency, and the Sharks have made no moves besides the re-signing of a few players.  The Dudes talk about whether this lack of action is cause for concern.  Also, now that the Sharks are in a tough salary cap situation, Mike and Doug posit several things the Sharks could do to get out of the predicament.

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Even though the Sharks have been inactive, we haven’t.  New podcast here.  This time of year is ripe for speculation, and that’s what we do best, so this week is full of ideas about what the Sharks might do between now and the beginning of the season.  I know some of you out there are getting frustrated, and it’s hard not to be.  I still trust DW, but I admit, that trust was shaken a tad when Kent Huskins was signed.  I hope the other shoe that drops is an italian-made loafer.

In case you were feeling down in the dumps about the Sharks, and you want to get more depressed, read this.  Gabe Desjardins watched video of every Sharks even-strengh goal against, and assigned blame to a defenseman.  Let’s just say he makes it sound like we could use a #1 and a #2 defensemen now.  However, I’m not a fan of this methodology for two reasons:  One, it’s very subjective.  Without watching all the goals myself, I think it’s in the realm of possibility that you could quibble on the blame of 10-15% of them,  which could change those rankings around.  I try to read almost everything Gabe writes, but it makes me suspicious when he says that the results reinforced what he already thought.  Two, it assigns blame for a goal to one person only.  Maybe Blake missed coverage a little bit, putting Vlasic out of position.  Vlasic gets beat and there’s a goal against, but who gets the “error”?  Blake for putting Vlasic in a bad spot, or Vlasic getting beat?

In other news, the latest this morning is that since the Pronger extension doesn’t start until 2010, and Pronger will be 35 in September of that year, the extension counts as an “old man” contract. This means it counts against the cap for the entire term, even in Pronger retires before it’s over.  I’m not sure I like that contract now…

I’ve been bad. I went and looked at Hockeybuzz and it freaked me out.

I was bored last night trying to get to sleep and stumbled upon a three way trade rumor between San Jose/Chicago/Toronto but of course with no names attached. I always knew Eklund’s rumor ratio sucked but I never guessed he had a hilarious 3% accuracy, but thanks to the website hockeybuzzhogwash.com, they’ve been tracking his shots in the dark and found he has predicted 15 out of 472 rumors on his site correctly – that’s the 3.1%.

So, knowing this, I would discount the trade rumor on the spot – but my internet searching got the best of me and I found a twitter from Puck Prospectus as “speculation” as to who might be involved in this three-way trade. Prepare to vomit all over yourself.

To Toronto: Versteeg, Brian Campbell, Cheechoo
To Chicago: Marleau, Kaberle and Nabby
To San Jose: Jason Blake, Huet and 2010 1st round pick.

Have you picked your jaw up off the floor yet?

From a website that I usually respect and that recently teamed with Dudes on Hockey guest, E.J. Hradek, on several pieces on ESPN.com – this has got to be the biggest load of @&*. Either this guy Andrew Rothstien is deranged, has a great sense of humor…or is deranged. So, he’s actually inferring the Sharks are going to trade two expiring contracts that would allow them to have $12M in cap room next season and a struggling Rocket Richard winner for a LW who had a bounce back year with 63 points but still has cancer and is signed until 2012 and a wildly overpriced goalie in Huet that is signed until 2012 for big money and sucks HUGE in the playoffs…oh, and that 1st round pick.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…..HAH….HA…Dear Puck Prospectus, either you owe your readers an apology or I will be my roof ready to jump if you are right.

Now, I do buy that perhaps Toronto and Chicago are good trade partners with the Sharks, especially with the RFA trouble the Hawks have gotten themselves into – but the players I see Doug Wilson being interested in from the Hawks is RW Patrick Sharp and/or RW Dustin Byfuglien. If the Hawks want to get Marleau for those two players for one year and Marleau will approve the move, I would make the deal. As for Toronto, I’ve talked before about how Kaberle could be on the Sharks radar because he could fill the legit #2 role in a “Detroit” model, skilled and responsible – not physical. Boyle and Kaberle would be our answer to Lidstrom and Rafalski. Not quite the same, but pretty darn good. Toronto needs scoring bad, bad, bad and might be willing to roll with Michalek and Cheechoo.

Gotta be a major move coming this week – just not the insanity listed above.

Generally, I regard the writings of David Pollak, the Sharks beat writer, as close to gospel as you can get.  And as he had written several times in the recent past, Dany (What’s Up With the Spelling) Heatley coming to the Sharks wasn’t going to happen.  But in his most recent post, he admits the possibility of Heatley to the Sharks may not be as remote now as it once was.  The $4M payment to Heatley on July 1 means that any potential trade partners wouldn’t have to shell out, making the prospect that much more attractive.

The flip side is the cap situation.  As Mr. Plank has amply described at Fear the Fin, the Sharks are once again near the cap ceiling.  This essentially means that any deal for Heatley would have to be at least cap neutral.  The Sens have more players signed at approximately $55M, so they might be able to take a million or two, but certainly not more than that.  And given that the Sharks still have players to sign in order to get to a proper active roster figure, that means only top salary players make sense to go the other way.  Trading Ehrhoff, Vlasic, and Lukowich might be about the same cap hit as Heatley, but then the Sharks would need to sign two more players for the already paltry $2-3M the Sharks have left under the cap.

I’m burying the lead here- this means the Sharks have to be offering a deal that includes Patrick Marleau or Evgeni Nabokov.  Considering the Sens got Pascal Leclaire at the deadline and the Sharks don’t have an obvious #1 to step in this year, I think it’s highly likely that Marleau is the one.  Marleau, Ehrhoff, and a pick maybe?

Not that I’m supporting such a proposal.  Heatley clearly is damaged goods, and the fact that he bitched about wanting to be traded, then didn’t waive his NMC to go to the Oilers certainly doesn’t make him look good.  Even the most charitable explanation- that the Rangers and Sharks made decent proposals that he preferred – still makes him look like a punk.  Funny thing is, this is one of the very few times we’ve seen a opposing player actively favor the Sharks (Dan Boyle avoiding Atlanta doesn’t count).

However, the question remains, do the Sharks really need this brand of headache?  40-50 goals, especially if Joe is there setting him up, is a difficult thing to pass up.  But I still say no.  Too many questions and too much money in this economic climate is asking for trouble.

Check out the new podcast about UFA Day here!

July 1 has come and gone and as I expected, Doug Wilson wasn’t in on the fun – he never is. Whether it’s by choice or because NHL players still don’t view San Jose has a free agent destination, Doug Wilson never has much to report on July 1st. So, if you’re disappointed – don’t slit your wrists yet – you had to know this was going to happen. I always get caught up in UFA frenzy, wondering if this will be the year the Sharks get a big fish – but there was no chance. The trade route is where we’ll see our major changes.

The Sharks made one signing today, technically a “re-signing” but this player never played a single minute for San Jose after he was acquired in a trade at the deadline due to a foot injury. Kent Huskins, a member of the Stanley Cup winning Ducks, must have seen something he liked in the Bay Area and is sticking around for two seasons at 3.4M total. His addition means there will be some subtraction among Vlasic, Ehrhoff, Luko and Murray – one of those dudes isn’t going to be on the team next year – and honestly, I think two of them won’t be there. Doug Wilson loves to play this angle, there are going to be a few teams pretty upset they didn’t land a UFA today and they will come calling to Doug Wilson who has his own version of Komisarek in Murray signed long term, plus he has a smooth skating Ehrhoff to those who lost out on Ohlund. Those are valuable assets to have on the table to someone who might be itching to make a splash. The Sharks didn’t give Huskins $1.7M per season to sit on his ass – he is going to be playing in the top six every night, no question in my mind.

Here’s something to ponder based on a comment I saw on David Pollak’s blog. If the Sharks were willing to $1.7M for Huskins, why not add an extra year and sign formers Preds defendeer Greg Zanon, who inked with the Wild for a reported three years/$5.8M. Zanon is a shot blocking monster, with 237 blocks, and was a major part of Nashville’s top ten penalty kill. Now maybe Zanon wanted to return to the mid-West where he played his college hockey in Nebraska and in the AHL in Milwaukee, but I’d like to think that while the coaching staff saw what Huskins can offer in practice, having the opportunity to sign the league’s leading shot blocker in Zanon for the same price was at least considered…

Here are some players I’m keeping an eye on in the next week or so to see if they should be checking out Bay Area real estate:

Tomas Kaberle – while I don’t think he is the perfect fit, he is damn good d-man and could be a solid #2 to Boyle’s top banana. If Burke was asking for Kessel, would Ron Wilson be interested in Cheechoo or Michalek?

Speaking of Phil Kessel – if the Bruins have him on the block and were looking to add D, how about Ehrhoff for Kessel?

Scott Hartnell – Either Carcillo or Hartnell has to go, and Hartnell makes more $$. Doug Wilson might be able to get him for a low price – Philly can’t add any more payroll.

Jack Johnson – Dean Lombardi struck out on both Havlat and Gaborik (big surprise), so maybe the long-term signed Michalek would tempt him enough to unload Jack Johnson to the Sharks…especially if Johnson won’t sign. These two teams could be perfect dance partners in a trade, if they can stomach dealing within the division. Jack Johnson in theory would be perfect-o if he develops as projected along side Dan Boyle. He could be the next Rob Blake…or he could be the next Jeff Jillson. It’s worth the risk if the deal is there, if you ask me.

Let’s keep our wits about us. Dan Boyle wasn’t a Shark until July 4th. Who knows what will happen tomorrow.

One of the most exciting days of the offseason is here- the beginning of free agency.  The Dudes talk about the series of changes that have already befallen the Sharks, how draft day went, and most interestingly, the many signings that have happened this Canada Day.

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So yesterday I mentioned that if you look at certain metrics, like percentage of draft picks that play a single game in the NHL and percentage that have played over 200 games, the Sharks do quite well, and the Red Wings don’t.  I’m looking at the years from 1994 to 2003.  Any more recent drafts wouldn’t be fair, because some players haven’t had enough time to develop.

As I said yesterday, the draft is basically a crap shoot.  But now, I have to add a caveat.  It’s not a crap shoot in the first ten picks.  Here’s a table, with the number of players in the first ten picks that have played 200 NHL games, versus the last 20 picks of the round.

Basically, this implies you’re going to yield about half as many latter-20 picks as first-10 picks.  So it’s not only true that first round picks are much more likely to play significant games in the NHL (slightly under 40%, as I said in the last post), it’s also true that the vast majority of those first rounders that didn’t make it weren’t drafted in the top 10.

This really comes into play when you try and compare different teams in terms of their draft performance.  For instance, if we look at Detroit, since 1994, they’ve had no draft picks in the top 10.  They’ve had only 5 first round picks total in the span we are interested in, and only one, Jiri Fisher, player over 200 games (although Nicklas Kronwall will make it this next season).  So rating the Wings charitably (albeit a tiny tiny sample size) they are exactly average in first round draft picks conversion at 40%.

Now let’s look at San Jose:  They are 100% in picks in the top-10 (Zyuzin, Marleau, Stuart, Michalek) and way ahead in the latter-20 (7 of 11, not counting Steve Bernier).

Does this mean San Jose is a better drafting team than Detroit?  In my opinion, yes.  You want to make good picks when they are most likely to pan out- the first round.  On the flip side, everyone will always point to the home run picks of Holmstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg, all of which were very late round picks.  However, Detroit has had considerably more than their fair share of stinkers.  For instance, in 1995 and 1996, the Wings had 18 picks, none of which played more than 200 games, and only one (the 1995 #26 overall Maxim Kuznetsov) that played over 100. The Sharks drafted 5 NHL players in those two years- Kiprusoff, Toskala, Zyuzin, Sturm, and Matt Bradley (to be fair, Zyuzin and Sturm were off the board when the Wings picked).

Perhaps even more interesting than Detroit’s success (or lack of it) in the draft, is the fact they they choose so often to avoid it.  In our ten year span, they had only five first round picks.  Detroit is a team that can nab marquee free agents and pay big money;  it looks like they’ve calculated, correctly, that free agency and trades are their avenue to winning.

It’s too bad San Jose can’t use that same blueprint- if you don’t count Rob Blake, who is a West Coast guy, the only free agent of any import the Sharks have signed in the last ten years is Mike Grier.  So you use the draft-  Doug Wilson, by this account, tried to get a top-11 pick this year, but was unsuccessful.  The best the Sharks can do, like most other NHL teams, is get high draft picks and use them wisely.

First things first- I was a little surprised, like everyone else, that the GM didn’t make any real moves on either draft day.  However, given the kinds of deals that happened, and more importantly, the kinds of deals that didn’t happen, I understand it.  I know grier disagrees with me, but I think the Pronger deal was another instance of Philly panic.  They gave up one regular roster player, a great prospect in Sbisa, and two first round picks for one year of Chris Pronger.  Of course, if Pronger re-signs after this year and the Flyers go on to win the cup in the next few, Paul Holmgren will look like a genius.  Save that, Bob Murray in Anaheim clearly made the better deal.  The Bouwmeester to Calgary deal I thought was excessive too- a third round pick and Jordan Leopold simply for the rights to negotiate with Bouwmeester for an extra week.

Also, the kinds of deals I thought would happen, didn’t.  No moves for Heatley, Gaborik, or other top players.  Bryan Murray in particular was hunkered down, waiting for a huge offer that never came.  Can we blame Doug Wilson for not taking the bait?

One more note on the draft- I’ve said before, and I’ll say again, that draft picks, even 1st round ones, are a crap shoot.  If we look at 1994 to 2003, probably the last year we can make a judgement on the quality of first round picks, according to a great spreadsheet on PPP, less than 40% of first round picks have played over 200 games in the NHL.  If you take the first two rounds, that number drops to less than 25%.  Even the best minds in hockey can’t consistently pick NHL roster players in the draft.

If you look at the Sharks in that period, they actually do very well.  19.8% of all of their drafted players in that period have played over 200 games in the bigs, fifth best in the NHL.  And an even 50% have played at least a single NHL game, good for third in the league.  I’m not sure how to interpret this next part- the Detroit Red Wings are dead last in both categories.  I might have to save that discussion for another post.

But onto the big news of the day: the Sharks have decided not to tender qualifying offers to some restricted free agents.  The big name among them is Marcel Goc.  Can’t say I’m outraged. Goc, in that list of first round draft picks that have played over 200 games, never turned himself into a player that a team needs to have around.  Certainly not a bad player, but he never found a niche, a place where he’s a go-to guy.  Not skilled enough to score a bunch, not gritty enough to be a stereotypical third liner, and not defensive enough to be a PK specialist.  Even in the faceoff circle, Jumbo and Pavs are certainly good enough.

As far as the others go, Plihal, Kaspar, and a host of Worchester Sharks, I’m not too broken up about that either.  I’ve gone on the record excoriating Kaspar for his uneven play, and Plihal, who won Sharks Rookie of the Year basically by default, has Marcel Goc disease- a nice guy, not a bad player, but not someone you’re thrilled to put in the lineup every day.  At least not on a team that should consider anything but the Stanley Cup finals a disappointment.

The guys who did get QOs- Clowe, Mitchell, Greiss, and Staubitz, are all players with significant room to improve.  As we’ve talked about on the podcast, Greiss could be the steady backup this coming year, perhaps getting 20 games or more in net.  Wilson is clearly high on Staubitz, a guy who beat the tar out of Tootoo this year, and could be slotted to be that guy on the Sharks.  Mitchell can be in between Jordan Staal and Max Talbot- a guy that never gives up, and chips in goals in key spots.

If nothing else, Wilson hasn’t fallen prey to something we’ve seen before- sentimentality.  I’m just interested to see if that state of mind carries over into larger roster moves.

Doug Wilson made a trade! He traded a 6th rounder in 2010 for an additional 7th rounder in 2009 – what a crazy deal.

Hard to know what the Sharks got exactly yesterday, but I’ll do my best to give you some info. The best prospect on the surface is their first 2nd round pick, William Wrenn, a stay-at-home d-man who was the Captain of the USA U-18 Gold Medal effort this past year. He has decent size and is going the college route by enrolling at the University of Denver next season. He will likely play two years and DW will see where he is – he sounds like Vlasic with more size and leadership qualities.

The other pick that really jumped off the page was the 5th round selection Phil Varone, who this blogger makes a pretty convincing case to be an impact player on the NHL level. Sounds like the kid can compete, plays with a non-stop motor – is Doug Wilson searching for his Maxim Talbot here? His is a playoff beast at the age of 18, with 19 points in his junior playoff run this year in only 14 games. I love this pick – this kid seems like a winner.

The other picks include another big OHL defensemen (this kid is 6’6 and growing) named Taylor Doherty, a Slovakian World Junior team member in Marek Viedensky who plays in the WHL junior league and an U-18 German national team member, Dominik Bielke. Obviously, Doherty is the most interesting based on his sheer size – but he looks like a giant Douglas Murray to me in the clip I’ve seen, and not Zdeno Chara – but he’s still young.

Not exactly the big splash we might have been expecting from DW this weekend, but we have to remember that the major remodeling didn’t start to happen on the Sharks until early July last season. Changes are coming. Doug Wilson made that clear to Mark Purdy in the Mercury News this morning. He even went so far as to say that there will be seven to eight new players on the roster. Now, this could be a combination of trades, UFA’s and players who didn’t get a crack at a regular roster spot last season (Staubitz, McGinn) – but changes are a comin’ friends – we all know Doug Wilson doesn’t act out of panic. If we’re acting on hunches here, the picks of Wrenn and Doherty could mean that DW is considering moving one or two of his young defensemen in order to get an impact #2 man that we’ve discussed at length on the blog and podcast.

We’ll have to hold our breath under the chips fall on Wednesday – UFA Day.

My prediction of Doug Wilson being able to land a first round pick fell by the wayside tonight as for the second year in a row, the San Jose Sharks did not take part in the fun on Day One of the NHL Entry Draft. There were a few moments during a rather dull evening that I thought Doug Wilson might strike. When I saw Chuck Fletcher on the phone at Minnesota’s #12 pick, it crossed my mind that perhaps the Sharks had dealt Ryane Clowe to the Wild in a package for the pick, especially with the big Russian defensemen Kulikov still on the board – but that pick ended up in Garth Snow and the NY Islanders hands.

But the best news the Sharks received on Friday night came when we learned that the hated Pronger has peaced out to the East coast and the Ducks, while they gained some picks, are a lot less menacing at the moment. Having spoken with Mike briefly tonight during the draft (he’s enjoying a vacation in a non-hockey state) he seemed to think the Ducks took the Flyers to the cleaners here. I’m not so sure. What did the Ducks get? Well, they got back Joffrey Lupel for a second tour of duty. I guess he’s shown in the last two years that when healthy, he can be a 50 point per year, second line forward. This is the 2nd time he’s been traded for Chris Pronger by the way. The Ducks also got the Flyers 1st round pick in 2008 Luca Sbisa, who played 39 games in the NHL last year before being returned to his junior team. He’s a 19 year old Italian that has a knock for not being physical enough to handle top NHL forwards. So they got 2nd line forward, a junior d prospect, #26 pick Kyle Palmieri and what could be a high 20’s draft pick in 2010. What did they give up? Their entire identity, that’s what!! I think the Flyers just got a top NHL d-man that makes them significantly better in their chase to catch the Stanley Cup champions. They won’t feel the loss of Lupul with Giroux and van Riemsdyk ready to step in, they would have taken Lupul’s minutes down the road anyways – and no one can say they’d rather wait and see if Sbisa will pan out instead of take a run at a Cup with Pronger (plus the first crack at keeping him long term). Plus history will show that the team that deals away the Mighty Pronger ends up looking like the fool.

1995 – The Hartford Whalers traded a young Chris Pronger to the St. Louis Blues for Brendan Shanahan. Pronger led the Blues to the playoffs for nine straight seasons. The Hartford Whalers don’t exist.

2005 – St. Louis trades Pronger to the Edmonton Oilers for Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka and Doug Lynch. Pronger took the Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals. Brewer played 28 games last year due to injuries, Woywitka has played more games in the AHL than then NHL and Doug Lynch is so good he’s playing in Austria. After Pronger left, the Blues missed the playoffs for three straight years.

2006 – Edmonton traded Pronger to the Ducks for Lupul, Ladislav Smid, a two first round picks (later traded to Phoenix to draft Riley Nash and used to pick Jordan Eberle in 2008). Pronger won a Stanley Cup with the Ducks. Lupul was traded for Pitkanen who was traded for Cole who was traded for Patrick O’Sullivan. Smid sucks – but it looks like the Oilers got two good future guys in Eberle and Nash…but still – it’s not a Cup – plus they haven’t made the playoffs in their three post Pronger years…

Anyone sense a theme here Sharks fans?

So good job Flyers. You either just bought yourself a ticket to the Stanley Cup Finals, or Anaheim will not make the playoffs for three years, or the Ducks will relocate to Carolina and name themselves after a fruity Southern cocktail. How about the Greensboro Mint Juleps or the Durham Sweet Teas? “Get your Jonas Hillar Sweet Tea jersey!”

So, in terms of what it would have cost the Sharks to get Pronger – it boils down to this. The Ducks wanted a 2nd line forward, a top young D prospect and two first round picks. The Sharks could have offered Michalek and Petrecki but San Jose didn’t have the two first round picks – plus I think Michalek and Petrecki are better than the Lupul/Sbisa combo – so it would have been a bad deal on our end. We’ll be better off with Pronger on Broad Street.

I would think Doug Wilson is going to try and get a few extra picks tomorrow, perhaps trading down from one of his 2nd rounders to get two later picks to add more prospects to the cupboard. Day Two isn’t usually full of major trades from what I remember in the past (am I wrong?) so I’m guessing that any news on Clowe or others will just have to wait.