rulururu
Two dudes blogging and podcasting about the San Jose Sharks, straight from sunny California.

post Now It’s Serious

March 15th, 2012, 9:20 am

Filed under: blog — Written by Mike

The Sharks have thirteen games to play, and 78 points.  Here’s the point totals of the 8 seed every year since the lockout.

Year West East
2011 97 93
2010 95 88
2009 91 93
2008 91 94
2007 96 92
2006 95 92

For the math nerds, the West average is 94.17, East is 92, overall average is 93.08, and standard deviation is 2.5.  The conventional wisdom is that the Sharks need 95 points to make the playoffs, and these numbers support that.  However, assuming the distribution is normal, there’s about a 15% chance the 8 seed will need 97 points to make it.

To get to 94 points, the Sharks need to go 8-5-0, or 7-3-2.  To get to 95 points, that’s 8-4-1 or 7-2-3.  To get to 97, that’s 9-3-1 or 8-1-3.

The last time the Sharks got 16 points or more in a 13-game span was January 5th to February 2nd, which included 8 games against teams that are not currently in the playoffs.  The final thirteen, the Sharks will have 6 games against such opponents, and three of them against the Kings, with whom the Sharks are tied.

Ain’t gonna be easy.

 

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    13 Comments to “Now It’s Serious”

    1. Emily Hall says:

      Great post! I agree there has to be an urgency for the Sharks. They totally control their destiny in these last 13 games. I made this rally video for the Sharks and the fans
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rflGCIwTDM

      I just want the Sharks to fight for 60 minutes of every one of those 13 games coming up.

      I place my feeble soul before the Hockey Gods to bring the San Jose Sharks most powerful strength against the Nashville Predators. Hockey Gods please open up the net behind Pekka Rinne and make him a sieve. I beg thee Hockey Gods for infinite netminding goodness for Niemi and supreme protection from our defensemen. Amen.

    2. James says:

      Solid post. Just looked at the Sharks schedule. Not confident.

      Can’t believe Havlat is *still* out. Initial team report around 12/18 said 6-8 weeks. It’s been 12!

      • Mattcaffeine says:

        Havlat is in tonight, Tommy is out.

        Good post. Would love to see them sweep this homestand, I’d be happy with 2 of 3. Gonna be a rough ride through April.

      • Mike says:

        Funny you mention it, Havlat will be playing tonight. I doubt he’ll be very effective for a few games though…

    3. Andy C says:

      I’m sticking my tin hat on waiting for the abuse, but I’m going to say it anyway…
      This is the best regular season for years!
      Checking the standings before & after every game, taking every game as life or death – this is what it’s meant to be about. Not the usual division title sewn up by now and sitting around twiddling thumbs waiting for the playoffs to start. When was the last time a home game v’s the Preds had this much attention?
      Why can’t the Sharks do this every year?

      • WingsFanInSharkLand says:

        That’s really sadistic but I applaud you for spinning it like that. For a playoff series, I would be able to agree with this mentality but not for long stretches in a season. Most Sharks fans that I know are on suicide watch right now.

        • Andy C says:

          I think its because I’m getting old… That Game 7 last year v’s the Wings was too much in too short space of time. I think I can cope easier if it happens slowly!

    4. Cyoor says:

      I would say that the sharks need to win every game except against detroit Anaheim and boston that they have left. The reason for this is that the other teams are teams we compete for a playoff spot with. Thats nine of the games that are left.

      I also need to be abit positive right now. The sharks are 3 points away from beeing 3rd seed in the western conference at the moment. and they only need to get 4 more points then Dallas, 2 more points then Phoienix and Collorado, one more point then calgary and one less point then LA. To actually be in a verry good position for the playoffs.

    5. Cyoor says:

      Join the chat for todays game! :)
      http://dudesonhockey.com/chat/

    6. Patrick says:

      Mike – do you have easy access to data showing how many points the eventual 8-seed had after, say, 72 games? That would be interesting to add to your chart.

      I would also argue that looking at 8-seed point totals is overstating the target. You’re looking at it like “what point total would a theoretical team have had to achieve to get into the top 8?” whereas I’d say there is no theoretical, we know what was needed and that was simply to have more points than the 9th place team. In other words, if the 8-seed makes it with 95 but the 9th place team had only 91, then you only really “needed” 91 or 92 to make the playoffs.

      If you look at 9th place point totals over that time period, you get:

      West:
      2011 – 95
      2010 – 90
      2009 – 89
      2008 – 88
      2007 – 95
      2006 – 92

      Average: 91.5, Standard Deviation: 3.0

      East:
      2011 – 91
      2010 – 87
      2009 – 93
      2008 – 92
      2007 – 91
      2006 – 90

      Average: 90.7; Standard Deviation: 2.1

      Overall – Average: 91.1; Standard Deviation: 2.5

    7. Cyoor says:

      It is interesting that all remaning games for San Jose right now except for 3 are against teams within one point of them in the west.

      I would say that no matter what previous stats shows for who goes to the playoffs, the sharks have it all in their hands. If they lose they are out, if they win they are in.
      Also, its important that they win in regulation as much as possible so they dont give away any extra points.

    8. Tom says:

      It’s utterly amazing and dumfounding that this team can go from playing the way it played vs. Detroit to the way it played last night… (Havlat’s performance aside)

      My frustration level with this team is at an all time high, ever as a sport fan…

      If I make it through the regular season without breaking my TV it will be a minor miracle…

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