March 15th, 2012, 9:20 am
The Sharks have thirteen games to play, and 78 points. Here’s the point totals of the 8 seed every year since the lockout.
For the math nerds, the West average is 94.17, East is 92, overall average is 93.08, and standard deviation is 2.5. The conventional wisdom is that the Sharks need 95 points to make the playoffs, and these numbers support that. However, assuming the distribution is normal, there’s about a 15% chance the 8 seed will need 97 points to make it.
To get to 94 points, the Sharks need to go 8-5-0, or 7-3-2. To get to 95 points, that’s 8-4-1 or 7-2-3. To get to 97, that’s 9-3-1 or 8-1-3.
The last time the Sharks got 16 points or more in a 13-game span was January 5th to February 2nd, which included 8 games against teams that are not currently in the playoffs. The final thirteen, the Sharks will have 6 games against such opponents, and three of them against the Kings, with whom the Sharks are tied.
Ain’t gonna be easy.