So yesterday I mentioned that if you look at certain metrics, like percentage of draft picks that play a single game in the NHL and percentage that have played over 200 games, the Sharks do quite well, and the Red Wings don’t.  I’m looking at the years from 1994 to 2003.  Any more recent drafts wouldn’t be fair, because some players haven’t had enough time to develop.

As I said yesterday, the draft is basically a crap shoot.  But now, I have to add a caveat.  It’s not a crap shoot in the first ten picks.  Here’s a table, with the number of players in the first ten picks that have played 200 NHL games, versus the last 20 picks of the round.

Basically, this implies you’re going to yield about half as many latter-20 picks as first-10 picks.  So it’s not only true that first round picks are much more likely to play significant games in the NHL (slightly under 40%, as I said in the last post), it’s also true that the vast majority of those first rounders that didn’t make it weren’t drafted in the top 10.

This really comes into play when you try and compare different teams in terms of their draft performance.  For instance, if we look at Detroit, since 1994, they’ve had no draft picks in the top 10.  They’ve had only 5 first round picks total in the span we are interested in, and only one, Jiri Fisher, player over 200 games (although Nicklas Kronwall will make it this next season).  So rating the Wings charitably (albeit a tiny tiny sample size) they are exactly average in first round draft picks conversion at 40%.

Now let’s look at San Jose:  They are 100% in picks in the top-10 (Zyuzin, Marleau, Stuart, Michalek) and way ahead in the latter-20 (7 of 11, not counting Steve Bernier).

Does this mean San Jose is a better drafting team than Detroit?  In my opinion, yes.  You want to make good picks when they are most likely to pan out- the first round.  On the flip side, everyone will always point to the home run picks of Holmstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg, all of which were very late round picks.  However, Detroit has had considerably more than their fair share of stinkers.  For instance, in 1995 and 1996, the Wings had 18 picks, none of which played more than 200 games, and only one (the 1995 #26 overall Maxim Kuznetsov) that played over 100. The Sharks drafted 5 NHL players in those two years- Kiprusoff, Toskala, Zyuzin, Sturm, and Matt Bradley (to be fair, Zyuzin and Sturm were off the board when the Wings picked).

Perhaps even more interesting than Detroit’s success (or lack of it) in the draft, is the fact they they choose so often to avoid it.  In our ten year span, they had only five first round picks.  Detroit is a team that can nab marquee free agents and pay big money;  it looks like they’ve calculated, correctly, that free agency and trades are their avenue to winning.

It’s too bad San Jose can’t use that same blueprint- if you don’t count Rob Blake, who is a West Coast guy, the only free agent of any import the Sharks have signed in the last ten years is Mike Grier.  So you use the draft-  Doug Wilson, by this account, tried to get a top-11 pick this year, but was unsuccessful.  The best the Sharks can do, like most other NHL teams, is get high draft picks and use them wisely.

First things first- I was a little surprised, like everyone else, that the GM didn’t make any real moves on either draft day.  However, given the kinds of deals that happened, and more importantly, the kinds of deals that didn’t happen, I understand it.  I know grier disagrees with me, but I think the Pronger deal was another instance of Philly panic.  They gave up one regular roster player, a great prospect in Sbisa, and two first round picks for one year of Chris Pronger.  Of course, if Pronger re-signs after this year and the Flyers go on to win the cup in the next few, Paul Holmgren will look like a genius.  Save that, Bob Murray in Anaheim clearly made the better deal.  The Bouwmeester to Calgary deal I thought was excessive too- a third round pick and Jordan Leopold simply for the rights to negotiate with Bouwmeester for an extra week.

Also, the kinds of deals I thought would happen, didn’t.  No moves for Heatley, Gaborik, or other top players.  Bryan Murray in particular was hunkered down, waiting for a huge offer that never came.  Can we blame Doug Wilson for not taking the bait?

One more note on the draft- I’ve said before, and I’ll say again, that draft picks, even 1st round ones, are a crap shoot.  If we look at 1994 to 2003, probably the last year we can make a judgement on the quality of first round picks, according to a great spreadsheet on PPP, less than 40% of first round picks have played over 200 games in the NHL.  If you take the first two rounds, that number drops to less than 25%.  Even the best minds in hockey can’t consistently pick NHL roster players in the draft.

If you look at the Sharks in that period, they actually do very well.  19.8% of all of their drafted players in that period have played over 200 games in the bigs, fifth best in the NHL.  And an even 50% have played at least a single NHL game, good for third in the league.  I’m not sure how to interpret this next part- the Detroit Red Wings are dead last in both categories.  I might have to save that discussion for another post.

But onto the big news of the day: the Sharks have decided not to tender qualifying offers to some restricted free agents.  The big name among them is Marcel Goc.  Can’t say I’m outraged. Goc, in that list of first round draft picks that have played over 200 games, never turned himself into a player that a team needs to have around.  Certainly not a bad player, but he never found a niche, a place where he’s a go-to guy.  Not skilled enough to score a bunch, not gritty enough to be a stereotypical third liner, and not defensive enough to be a PK specialist.  Even in the faceoff circle, Jumbo and Pavs are certainly good enough.

As far as the others go, Plihal, Kaspar, and a host of Worchester Sharks, I’m not too broken up about that either.  I’ve gone on the record excoriating Kaspar for his uneven play, and Plihal, who won Sharks Rookie of the Year basically by default, has Marcel Goc disease- a nice guy, not a bad player, but not someone you’re thrilled to put in the lineup every day.  At least not on a team that should consider anything but the Stanley Cup finals a disappointment.

The guys who did get QOs- Clowe, Mitchell, Greiss, and Staubitz, are all players with significant room to improve.  As we’ve talked about on the podcast, Greiss could be the steady backup this coming year, perhaps getting 20 games or more in net.  Wilson is clearly high on Staubitz, a guy who beat the tar out of Tootoo this year, and could be slotted to be that guy on the Sharks.  Mitchell can be in between Jordan Staal and Max Talbot- a guy that never gives up, and chips in goals in key spots.

If nothing else, Wilson hasn’t fallen prey to something we’ve seen before- sentimentality.  I’m just interested to see if that state of mind carries over into larger roster moves.

Doug Wilson made a trade! He traded a 6th rounder in 2010 for an additional 7th rounder in 2009 – what a crazy deal.

Hard to know what the Sharks got exactly yesterday, but I’ll do my best to give you some info. The best prospect on the surface is their first 2nd round pick, William Wrenn, a stay-at-home d-man who was the Captain of the USA U-18 Gold Medal effort this past year. He has decent size and is going the college route by enrolling at the University of Denver next season. He will likely play two years and DW will see where he is – he sounds like Vlasic with more size and leadership qualities.

The other pick that really jumped off the page was the 5th round selection Phil Varone, who this blogger makes a pretty convincing case to be an impact player on the NHL level. Sounds like the kid can compete, plays with a non-stop motor – is Doug Wilson searching for his Maxim Talbot here? His is a playoff beast at the age of 18, with 19 points in his junior playoff run this year in only 14 games. I love this pick – this kid seems like a winner.

The other picks include another big OHL defensemen (this kid is 6’6 and growing) named Taylor Doherty, a Slovakian World Junior team member in Marek Viedensky who plays in the WHL junior league and an U-18 German national team member, Dominik Bielke. Obviously, Doherty is the most interesting based on his sheer size – but he looks like a giant Douglas Murray to me in the clip I’ve seen, and not Zdeno Chara – but he’s still young.

Not exactly the big splash we might have been expecting from DW this weekend, but we have to remember that the major remodeling didn’t start to happen on the Sharks until early July last season. Changes are coming. Doug Wilson made that clear to Mark Purdy in the Mercury News this morning. He even went so far as to say that there will be seven to eight new players on the roster. Now, this could be a combination of trades, UFA’s and players who didn’t get a crack at a regular roster spot last season (Staubitz, McGinn) – but changes are a comin’ friends – we all know Doug Wilson doesn’t act out of panic. If we’re acting on hunches here, the picks of Wrenn and Doherty could mean that DW is considering moving one or two of his young defensemen in order to get an impact #2 man that we’ve discussed at length on the blog and podcast.

We’ll have to hold our breath under the chips fall on Wednesday – UFA Day.

My prediction of Doug Wilson being able to land a first round pick fell by the wayside tonight as for the second year in a row, the San Jose Sharks did not take part in the fun on Day One of the NHL Entry Draft. There were a few moments during a rather dull evening that I thought Doug Wilson might strike. When I saw Chuck Fletcher on the phone at Minnesota’s #12 pick, it crossed my mind that perhaps the Sharks had dealt Ryane Clowe to the Wild in a package for the pick, especially with the big Russian defensemen Kulikov still on the board – but that pick ended up in Garth Snow and the NY Islanders hands.

But the best news the Sharks received on Friday night came when we learned that the hated Pronger has peaced out to the East coast and the Ducks, while they gained some picks, are a lot less menacing at the moment. Having spoken with Mike briefly tonight during the draft (he’s enjoying a vacation in a non-hockey state) he seemed to think the Ducks took the Flyers to the cleaners here. I’m not so sure. What did the Ducks get? Well, they got back Joffrey Lupel for a second tour of duty. I guess he’s shown in the last two years that when healthy, he can be a 50 point per year, second line forward. This is the 2nd time he’s been traded for Chris Pronger by the way. The Ducks also got the Flyers 1st round pick in 2008 Luca Sbisa, who played 39 games in the NHL last year before being returned to his junior team. He’s a 19 year old Italian that has a knock for not being physical enough to handle top NHL forwards. So they got 2nd line forward, a junior d prospect, #26 pick Kyle Palmieri and what could be a high 20’s draft pick in 2010. What did they give up? Their entire identity, that’s what!! I think the Flyers just got a top NHL d-man that makes them significantly better in their chase to catch the Stanley Cup champions. They won’t feel the loss of Lupul with Giroux and van Riemsdyk ready to step in, they would have taken Lupul’s minutes down the road anyways – and no one can say they’d rather wait and see if Sbisa will pan out instead of take a run at a Cup with Pronger (plus the first crack at keeping him long term). Plus history will show that the team that deals away the Mighty Pronger ends up looking like the fool.

1995 – The Hartford Whalers traded a young Chris Pronger to the St. Louis Blues for Brendan Shanahan. Pronger led the Blues to the playoffs for nine straight seasons. The Hartford Whalers don’t exist.

2005 – St. Louis trades Pronger to the Edmonton Oilers for Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka and Doug Lynch. Pronger took the Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals. Brewer played 28 games last year due to injuries, Woywitka has played more games in the AHL than then NHL and Doug Lynch is so good he’s playing in Austria. After Pronger left, the Blues missed the playoffs for three straight years.

2006 – Edmonton traded Pronger to the Ducks for Lupul, Ladislav Smid, a two first round picks (later traded to Phoenix to draft Riley Nash and used to pick Jordan Eberle in 2008). Pronger won a Stanley Cup with the Ducks. Lupul was traded for Pitkanen who was traded for Cole who was traded for Patrick O’Sullivan. Smid sucks – but it looks like the Oilers got two good future guys in Eberle and Nash…but still – it’s not a Cup – plus they haven’t made the playoffs in their three post Pronger years…

Anyone sense a theme here Sharks fans?

So good job Flyers. You either just bought yourself a ticket to the Stanley Cup Finals, or Anaheim will not make the playoffs for three years, or the Ducks will relocate to Carolina and name themselves after a fruity Southern cocktail. How about the Greensboro Mint Juleps or the Durham Sweet Teas? “Get your Jonas Hillar Sweet Tea jersey!”

So, in terms of what it would have cost the Sharks to get Pronger – it boils down to this. The Ducks wanted a 2nd line forward, a top young D prospect and two first round picks. The Sharks could have offered Michalek and Petrecki but San Jose didn’t have the two first round picks – plus I think Michalek and Petrecki are better than the Lupul/Sbisa combo – so it would have been a bad deal on our end. We’ll be better off with Pronger on Broad Street.

I would think Doug Wilson is going to try and get a few extra picks tomorrow, perhaps trading down from one of his 2nd rounders to get two later picks to add more prospects to the cupboard. Day Two isn’t usually full of major trades from what I remember in the past (am I wrong?) so I’m guessing that any news on Clowe or others will just have to wait.

Check out our latest podcast with special guest, Sharks television commentator Randy Hahn. Check it out!

The Sharks hit the rumor mill this morning when Darren Dreger reported that Doug Wilson has had serious discussions about moving RFA Ryane Clowe with both the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Philadelphia Flyers. As expected, Doug Wilson’s asking price is high for Clowe, with the Leafs #9 pick and Scott Hartnell and young sniper Claude Giroux as the names that have surfaced.

Dreger doesn’t usually say something unless it has some substance, so this is a pretty solid clue that the Sharks are looking to make some pretty major changes. So far, according to Dreger, the Flyers and Leafs have balked at the asking price – but if they reconsider, how would you feel about the potential return? We know what Scott Hartnell is – a real son of a bitch who is the kind of player we could hope Clowe develops into. He scored 30 goals last year and has scored 20+ since 2005. He can also instigate with the best of them, he’s no softy. Does he make dumb ass plays sometimes? Yes (see this clip of him tossing his glove at Ryan Malone on a break away) but the Sharks need this type of guy badly. As for Giroux, this kid can flat out score and is signed at .9M until 2011. He could replace Michalek immediately and make him instant trade bait. His affordability makes it less likely the Flyers, who are in salary cap hell, will be likely to move him. I think a Hartnell for Clowe deal makes more sense.

24 hours from getting some potential answers.

The Dudes snag Randy Hahn for an interview this episode, and the timing couldn’t be better.  With the draft and unrestricted free agency just around the corner, Mike and Doug have plenty of questions about where the Sharks might go, and which free agents or draft positions are the most tantilizing.

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Found this, which is sort of a Deadspin-esque rundown of all 30 teams, making fun of their respective fan bases.  Let’s look at the one for the Sharks, and see if it applies to me:

Clueless as to why their blind devotion hasn’t rewarded them with a Stanley Cup faster than say, the Ducks or the Hurricanes.

Check.

Probably can take apart a computer and put it back together from scratch.

Check.

Thinks Joe Thornton just has to smile and believe in himself a teensy bit more.

Crap, 3 for 3.

In other news, we’re having on a great guest this week on the podcast, so make sure to check it out Wednesday when we post it.

After an unintentional hiatus, the podcast is back with special guest Scott Cullen, hockey writer for TSN.ca, who we discuss several Sharks roster rumors including the visit of the Swedish Monster goalie Jonas Gustavsson and other potential offseason targets Doug Wilson might be eyeing. I think Gustavsson will make his decision on where he wants to begin his NHL career before the draft because it will obviously effect how the teams that lose out maneuver trades, picks, etc.

Here are some other Sharks rumors I’ve found floating around the internet as we approach draft day.

Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun has the balls to write that he thinks the Sharks would consider dealing Dan Boyle in a trade to get winger Dany Heatley . He ends up making a different, more reasonable proposal, but to even float that Brian Murray wouldn’t want Boyle is funnier than Artie Lange on the Joe Buck show. Mr. Brennan, I don’t know you, and I’m sure you are a decent guy – but you a bat-#$%& #$&’ing nuts, my friend. As for the proposal he settled on (Michalek and Vlasic for Heatley) it sure looks tempting on paper. The Sharks shed two guys who may have peaked before our eyes for a dynamo sniper…but Heatley has been tagged damaged goods – and if any of those knocks on Heatley are true, Doug Wilson isn’t looking to add a player with questionable work ethic and mood. So, I stick to my guns and say – No Heatley in San Jose.

On Spector’s Hockey, Spector comments on the rumored two year, 9M pact between the Sharks as, “absurd” and here’s why. As Mike has discussed before, any salary Blake gets as a player over 35 would be guaranteed and count against the cap no matter what – so for San Jose to enter into a two year deal with a player turning 40 this year wouldn’t be ideal. Here’s the other side of this situation. If Rob Blake takes less than 5M this year, he’s doing Doug Wilson and the Sharks a real solid. This guy had the best year in multiple categories since 2006 and if there were no family considerations or West Coast preference, he could easily get 5M from some one else – so let’s stop hoping for Blake to stick for 3.5M – which would essentially be charity from the former Norris winner. He’s coming back, but I think the truth in that rumor was the 4.5M, but it’s for one year – with maybe a team option for a second.

And now to the quote that is the title of this smartly written post. That was the only clue given to the local press now that Doug Wilson has completed his post-meltdown autopsy. “Changes Have to Take Place and Will Take Place.” So, if you want to be dramatic and totally derail your competition in the process, how about this trade.

To Anaheim: Vlasic and Michalek
To San Jose: Pronger

If Chris Pronger is really available, and if there is a wisp of truth to the Kings rumor, then you better believe that Doug Wilson will be in on those talks as well. We know he tried to get Pronger before, he is probably trying again…I have a funny feeling now that Doug Wilson is going to pull off something big and shocking, like getting Dan Boyle last year. The only thing more dramatic would be landing Phaneuf out of Calgary, which would be like a dream come true – and since Mike’s fantasy came true last offseason with Boyle – I’m reaching for the stars. This is my Cinemax Late-Night programming. Find out what Sutter wants and give it to him. Get one of my favorite players, the nasty Dion Phaneuf in a San Jose Sharks uniform. Come on hockey gods, don’t leave me hanging.

The dudes are back after an off week, this time talking with Scott Cullen, who wrote the off-season breakdown of the Sharks for tsn.ca.

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On the podcast front, the streak has come to an end at 51 episodes due to illness and other life factors getting in the way of recording. We plan to be back behind the mic next Tuesday and have a major Sharks guest lined up in the coming weeks to talk offseason changes, so stay tuned.

With Game Seven coming up, the offseason is starting to kick-off. We had some spirited discussion about some roster moves on the last post – so let’s hit a few hot topics in the NHL and let ‘er rip.

UFA GOALIE GUSTAVSSON LINKED TO SAN JOSE

With so many areas to address in the offseason, why would the Sharks be looking to sign a high profile international goalie? Well – because this guy might be just too damn good to pass up, especially with Nabby’s recent playoff performance and his uncertain contract status beyond 2009-10. According to Burnside, because Gustavsson is subject to an entry-level deal, it’s not like he’s going to break the bank – which is a perfect situation for the San Jose Sharks. This isn’t going to be about cash for Gustavsson, it’s going to be about either immediate playing time for a lousy team like Colorado or getting into a great situation and waiting his turn, like San Jose. The Sharks have always been way ahead of the curve as far as evaluating goaltending, so if Tim Burke says Gustavsson is the real deal, San Jose should roll out the Douglas Murray Swedish welcome mat, blast the ABBA and offer him as much lutfisk as he can eat. My guess: He ends up in Toronto, where they can offer immediate playing time and he will be a hockey icon.

DOES HEATLEY KNOW THE WAY TO SAN JOSE?

Dany Heatley wants out and according to Andy Strickland at Hockeybuzz (who actually writes some truth from time to time) it looks like a Marleau for Heatley deal is being floated. How do we feel about this, Sharks fans? Heatley’s detractors call him out of shape, lazy and unwilling to do the dirty work. His defenders remind you this is a 40-50 goal scorer and one of the best snipers in the league. The thought of him on Thornton’s side makes me giggle like a schoolgirl – but the character questions are a true concern. If he really is an @#*hole with bad work ethic, McLellan and DW will not add him to the fold of a team that already has their desire to compete in question. My guess: He will not be wearing Teal in the Fall.

LAPERRIERE GOING TO SHARK INFESTED UFA WATERS

The Avalanche continue their classy ways, downgrading a loyal veteran’s contract offer to a one year deal worth less than the 1.1M he made last year – so Laperriere is gonna walk, and who can blame him. With reports that Chris Neil is looking for a four-five year deal (no thanks), I think the Sharks will be unwilling to make that kind of commitment and close in on Ian La-pesky-iere. My guess: I think Laperriere will be a San Jose Shark, signing a two year deal worth between 1.5-1.8M per season.

So suck it up and watch the last hockey game of the year. Go Penguins, for selfish reasons – and the trades and future speculation are right around the corner.