Go Back to Detroit and tell them San Jose's daughters and her sons are yours no more. Tell them the Sharks are free!

I went the mailbox yesterday afternoon and found an envelope from the San Jose Sharks asking me to renew my season tickets and informing me of raised ticket prices and a four figure deposit due at the end of the month.

Talk about timing.

On the other hand, it could have been a stroke of genius if the Sharks had won Game Four and swept the hated Red Wings on our way to the Conference Finals. People would have sent in their season ticket deposits, panties and first born children in madcap celebration. Instead, I have a season ticket renewal packet sitting on my dining room table, lonely and waiting for an answer.

I’ll certainly feel more compelled to write a check with a win tonight – and I’m sure I won’t be alone.

We all know the status of the Blackhawks/Canucks series with the Chicago leading 3-1 and looking to close out tomorrow night at home. They have rolled over the Canucks in three straight and it isn’t looking like much of a matchup at the moment, with the Hawks outscoring Vancouvers 16-8 in the last three games. Vancouver’s defense has been porous and they’ve been unable to match Chicago in a high octane run and gun style. If the Sharks win tonight, let’s hope Vancouver can steal one more before they bow out, which I fully expect they will.

The most important thing tonight will be the crowd at the Tank. I really believe that. We have to remain positive, no matter if the boys fall behind, and help them topple the Goliath. I have full confidence they can and will win tonight. Every challenge has been met in the postseason, every mountain climbed. No reason to believe they won’t make it happen again.

Sharks faced a 2-0 hole at home in Game Two vs. Colorado and overcame a terrible performance by Nabby to win on Seto’s OT goal. They toppled what would have become the most embarrassing moment in franchise history with a huge win against Colorado in Game Four. They recognized the urgency to finish off the upstart Avs and hammered them in Game Five and Six. The Sharks played with the emotion, heart and grit to gain a three game advantage in this series and that’s not going to disappear just because of one bad game.

The Sharks got embarrassed eight times this season – losing by three or more goals. Here is how they responded each time.

Oct 1st: 5-2 loss @ Colorado – Next game: 4-1 win @ Anaheim

Oct 15th: 4-1 loss @ Washington – Next game: 4-1 win @ NY Islanders

Oct 22nd: 5-2 loss @ Tampa Bay – Next game: 4-3 win @ Atlanta

Nov 25th: 7-2 loss vs. Chicago – Next game: 5-4 win @ Edmonton

Jan 9th: 4-1 loss vs. Detroit – Next game: 2-1 win vs. LA

Feb 10th: 3-0 loss @ Columbus – Next game: 3-2 win @ Detroit

March 16th: 8-2 loss @ Dallas – Next game: 3-2 loss @ Vancouver

March 31st: 5-1 loss @ Dallas – Next game: 3-2 win @ Minnesota

That’s a 7-1 record, which tells you a lot about how this group of guys respond to taking a night off. They get mad and they get even. How about this? Detroit’s record in the regular season and the playoffs in the game after winning by three or more goals is 6-8. That’s not great, and we’ve seen this on full display recently with them losing Game One to us after a big win in Phoenix and losing Game Six to the Yotes after beating them 5-2 in Game Five.

Take it or leave it, but I feel confident going into the Tank tonight that the fans will make the difference and we’ll be toasting the first team to advance to the Conference Finals tonight somewhere in Downtown San Jose.

The Sharks are good enough, they're smart enough, and gosh darn it - people like them.

Everyone open your Dudes on Hockey daily affirmation book to page 5 and repeat after me.

I am a good and loyal Sharks fan. Before I panic and start contemplating ways to end my fandom, I will remember the things that give me hope today. I remember that the Sharks overcame a terrible performance by Nabby to win Game 2. I remember Dan Boyle and company refusing to give in to past demons and winning Game 4 in OT. I remember this Sharks team doing the improbable and leaping out to a devastating 3-0 lead on the hated Red Wings. Most of all, I remember this is not the same team that has let us down before.

And for all these things and many more, I know the Sharks can and will win Game Five on Saturday night. This is not the past. This is the present, and in this present – the Sharks overcome all obstacles and end up on top.

Amen. Let’s eat.

My playoff beard is better than Mike's! And Doug's, but that goes without saying.

If you asked me the chances of the Sharks taking a 3-0 lead on the Red Wings in this series, I would have put the chances of that well south of 5%.  The Wings are healthy, seasoned, and contain some of the best talent the league has to offer.  But for some reason, the ultimate chokers, the San Jose Sharks, have managed to come from behind in every single game and win.  I feel like I’m delirious.  Who put this lovely mixture of crank, LSD, and OxyContin into my breakfast cereal?  It’s FAN-tastic.

Last night was a come-from-behind to trump all others, because the Sharks were down by two goals this time, and in the third period to boot.  If you go back to our conference semis preview where Doug and I were trying to convince each other the Sharks could win, one of the things I said was “Jimmy Howard can be beat.”  If I were to pick one major problem with the Wings game, it would be that.  Yeah, there’s been some low turnovers by the Wings that have led to extended cycles and scoring chances.  But that Logan Couture goal last night, while heads-up and tricky, should not have gone in the net.  We’ve seen Nabby give up that goal before, and rightly excoriated him.  Howard, while certainly not the only reason why the Wings are in a unbelievable 3-0 hole, is not exactly baling water as fast as the others.

I do want to talk about the OT goal for a minute, because it does seem to illustrate two problems the Wings have had.  One is  Howard (series SV% = 0.886).  It’s very surprising to me that he was that far out of position when Marleau received Joe’s All-World pass.  And it was all-world: perfect timing, perfect speed for Marleau to shoot it on net, right on the tape.  Just a thing of beauty, and every bit as good as that spin-around backhand pass to Marleau that has made all of those highlight reels.  The second is the defense.  Every defensemen knows that on a 2-on-1 you keep your stick in the passing lane.  Brian Rafalski, for reasons unknown, seemed to be directing traffic, conducting a tiny invisible symphony, or maybe just trying to scratch an itch on his calf.  The blade of his stick was nowhere near the lane to Marleau.

It also perfectly illustrates something good for the Sharks – JOE THORNTON IS SHOOTING. Sakes alive, what a wonderful world we live in!  You think Rafalski would even consider taking the shooting lane if Joe hadn’t scored earlier, and hadn’t picked up his shot rate in the series? Joe averaged well under 2 shots per game in the regular season, and is over 3 shots per game in this series.  Even though he was only credited for one shot last night, which happened to be the goal, his willingness to direct the puck at the net (he took 6 shots in game two, and missed 5) is yet another reason why the Sharks are winning.

Even with all of these good things, the Sharks are still not done.  Not by a long shot.  Let’s say they take a game off, lose game 4, come home, and Detroit wins a squeaker.  That could easily happen, in which case my ass will be in full production of masonry products.  In my head, I estimated the chances of the Sharks winning the series after game two a little better than 50%.  Now, I put their chances at around 75-80%.  It ain’t over folks.  But the best thing about it is, we know the Sharks don’t think it’s over either.

New podcast will be posted tonight.

DUDES ON CHOMPTALK TONIGHT!

We’ll be taking to the airwaves from 9-10pm tonight on 1220AM KDOW to discuss what is hopefully a commanding 2-0 Sharks series lead after tonight’s Game 2 at the Tank. For our international listeners and readers and people who want to listen on the internet, you can click on this link to stream the show live.  Just like the podcast, the show revolves around questions from the listeners – so tonight give us a call at 1-800-516-1220 and talk to us live on the air.

Talk to you tonight. Go Sharks!

Guess that fish stew from the taco cart was a bad idea

With Marleau being literally a last-minute scratch (he participated in the pre-game skate), it looks as if the ghost of Ed Belfour had made a comeback, despite our masterful exorcism.  I’ll pass on a bit of a rumor, because it’s harmless- we heard it was food poisoning.  That’s from only one source, but it does jive with the official report: that it’s an “illness” and not an “injury”.

The Wings played almost exactly as expected.  Dazzling puckhandling, good defensive movement, great speed.  And luckily for us, mediocre goaltending.  The Sharks lost the even strength battle 3-2, but won the special teams battle 2-0, and that was enough to win game 1.  I wouldn’t bank on that plan for future games.  Good parts of the game had Doug and I biting our nails, wringing our hands, and puckering our… well, you get it.  It was nerve wracking.

All of this will make for a great series.  A series that I desperately want to enjoy, but will have extreme difficulty doing so.  This is great hockey, people.  Two great teams battling it out, with quite different styles.  The Sharks crash and bang, go deep in the corners, Big Joe or Clowe extract it, blast from the point and sit in Howard’s lap.  Detroit will have five guys on the ice at all times that can dangle, with behind the back passes, one-handed dekes, and open ice being created out of thin air.  It would be so great to watch if I didn’t have an ulcer.

Marleau will hopefully avoid all Sizzlers, Red Lobsters, and the Hometown Buffet, and the Sharks will get their 44 goal scorer back for game two.  One thing I mentioned to Doug as we were walking back, is the Wings have the capacity to lay a big turd in a game now and again.  The Wings were up in the series 3-2, at home, and just forgot how to play in game six.  They were down 5-1 in the third before a late goal made it a slightly more respectable 5-2.  The Sharks’ worst game of the playoffs so far was the 6-5 shootout in game two vs the Avs, which they won.  We certainly can’t count on a lapse from Detroit, but it makes me feel a little better that it’s possible.

In other news, Doug and I have entered into a wager with WingsFanInSharksLand, who happens to be a friend of ours, and despite his obvious character flaw, is actually a really good guy.  I don’t want to give away the stakes,  but let’s just say either way the series turns out, it will provide some entertainment for you all.

Game 1 at the Tank tonight. The city of San Jose doesn’t take kindly to people arriving late to an early 6pm start, so I hope the Red Wings plan it better than their Tuesday night arrival. Here’s the Dudes thoughts on the four conference semis. Chime in with your predictions as well.

Montreal (8) vs. Pittsburgh (4)
Doug: The buck has to stop somewhere and it would be mission impossible for the Canadiens to knock off both the Eastern Conference titans, right? Pittsburgh has the experience, talent and heart to overcome a little Jacques Martin mojo. Penguins in five.

Mike: Pittsburgh got a huge gift in the 6-8 seeds winning, and them not going to the Stanley Cup Finals for the third straight year would be a choke job on their part.  Pens in six, and it only goes that long because Josh Gorges PWNS.

Philadelphia (7) vs. Boston (6)
Doug: This series might have more grinding than a weekend with Wilt Chamberlin. It has the potential to be the most entertaining, if you like old school, blood and teeth cocktail hockey. I’ll be watching and as usual, Chris Pronger will still be standing at the end. Flyers in seven.

Mike: Marc Savard is back, and this emotional high will last until he skates through the middle with his head down (or up) and Pronger sticks him in the nuts.  Then cross-checks him in the head.  Then stomps on him.  Flyers in six.

Vancouver (3) vs. Chicago (2)
Doug: The dislike between these two teams is delicious. The Hawks were criticized in Round 1 for not playing with much heart, but they showed me a lot at the end of Game 5 when they refused to go down. I would love to pick Vancouver, but when have they ever made the Conf. Finals? Not since their Stanley Cup run in 1994 behind Bure and Linden. Hawks in six.

Mike: It’s disappointing to see Doug abandon his prescient observation that Chicago’s goaltending is a ticking time bomb.  I now take the reins of that bandwagon.  Canucks in seven.  Steve Bernier has 27 points in the series.

San Jose (1) vs. Detroit (5)
Doug: The path to glory has been determined and the Sharks are going to have to earn it. If ever there was a year for our boys to oust the mighty Wings, this is their best chance. We have the talent, depth and a goalie who knows he could be looking for a new team if he doesn’t make this happen. Daniel-san kicks Mr. Miyagi in the nuts. Sharks in six.

Mike: Past DOH guests Craig Custance (DOH 94) and Mark Purdy (DOH 88 and 51) have written about this series already.  It appears that both have picked the Wings to win, so now I’m questioning my decision to link to the them.  No matter.  As Custance said, this could change the reputation of the entire franchise.  This is the best team the Sharks have ever had in the playoffs, and you can’t say that for the Wings.  Sharks in seven.

One more win for Dave Tippett before Derek Morris turns into a pumpkin

The waiting will be over tonight. We’ll soon know who the Sharks will be hosting for the next round of The Road to the Cup – will it be our long time nemesis, Detroit, or the upstart Home of the Players No One Else Wanted, Phoenix. I know who I’m rooting for tonight.

Phoenix.

The Red Wings carry a mental hurdle for the San Jose Sharks players and fans – and I know we saw in the first round that this team is strong enough to overcome adversity and they should be commended for it. Key players had some extreme ups and some lowly lows and rebounded nicely, but some never snapped out of it (I’m looking at you Patty). Thanks to mental toughness and a little paranormal intervention, the Sharks won – but here’s the real reason why I want Phoenix and it’s simple. We had a hell of a time with Detroit this year, 1-2-1 in four games, and while Phoenix gave us a hard time the first two games, the Sharks have beaten them four times in a row.

It’s just that simple. If I ‘m trying to get to the giant plate of delicious prime rib, I’m not going to climb eight flights of stairs- I’m going to take the elevator….or something like that. The goal here is to win the Cup, not take the most honorable journey towards getting it. No one remembers who you beat in Round 1 or 2 or 3 – they remember the image of the player holding the Cup high in the air and the championship banner. Do you remember who Detroit beat on their way to winning the Cup in 2008? The #8 seeded Predators, the #6 seeded Avalanche and the #5 seeded Stars. They didn’t have to play the Sharks or the 2007 champions, the Ducks – both were already gone. I don’t remember any Wings fans begging for Pronger and the Ducks, do you?

So – Can we beat Detroit? Um….I think so…I hope so?

Can we beat Phoenix? Absolutely.

Bring on the Land of the Lost and let’s hope the Coyotes pull off an upset befitting of their Cinderella season – and then we’ll smack that ho-bag all the way back to Winnipeg. I’ll be rooting for Phoenix tonight and Vancouver for the next two weeks and I’ll hope the Penguins and Capitals sink like the Titanic too. I want a Cup and I don’t care if we take the elevator to get it.

NEW PODCAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TALK TO YOU THEN.

What's wrong with a playoff goatee?? Looks great and it's less filling.

Some random thoughts as I wait for the Blackhawks/Preds game to start:

– The poll results are overwhelmingly against my playoff goatee. I’d like to point out the goatee is 3-1 while all your beards are 3-2, so who’s better now? Huh? Who’s better now?

– Teams facing Round 1 death so far in the playoffs are 3-0 in elimination games this Stanley Cup playoffs. Ottawa, Buffalo and Montreal all said “Hell no, we won’t go” in the last two days – so anyone who thinks the Avs are going to ski off quietly into the snowstorm is mistaken. CORRECTION: NEW JERSEY COULDN’T PULL IT OFF IN GAME 5. TEAMS ARE 3-1 IN ELIMINATION GAMES. PROPS TO EVILDUCKS ON THAT ONE.

– Milan Hejduk should have kept his fat mouth shut. Questioning the heart of the Sharks and then going out with an injury is karma baby. Put that in your “lower body injury” and smoke it.

– I like Matt Duchene, but this quote makes him sound like a guy who lives in a grown man’s basement.

– Tonight is going to OT. I’m just sure of it. The Avs are going to clog our toilet all night long and Andy has one last magic trick up his sleeve – Sharks win 2-1 but it’s gonna be stressful. Gonna guess Dan Boyle’s the hero again just because he strikes me as a guy who wants to make 18,000 people cry.

– I’m sour about Dan Boyle not being a Norris nominee. Hard to argue with the three guys on the list, but if Mike Green isn’t good enough in his overall game to be on the Olympic team, what makes him one of three best d-men in the NHL? They should just give it to Duncan Keith right now.

– Matt Duchene does live in a grown man’s basement and admits he can’t really take care of himself. Punch him again Jamie and tell him to take out the trash.

– Will our joy and elation of winning a playoff series take a twisted turn when the Red Wings come to town next week?

The Sharks win game 5 decidedly, and the Dudes finally revel in a great Sharks performance.  They talk about the breakthrough with Craig Anderson, who has looked great for the Sharks other than their dominant ‘second’ line, and how the rest of the Western Conference series might turn out.

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Last night, the prominent emotion I felt after Pavs scored was relief, and not elation.  The Sharks are seemingly back on track for the moment, tying the series, again putting up more scoring chances than the opposition, but this time they won.  I got the idea for today’s post by reading this, and to a lesser extent, tweeting this last night.  Marleau, for some reason, looks largely disinterested in this series, and outside of a couple of speedy drives to the net, has seemingly avoided the Flying Body Show that this series has been so far.  The difference in his play from Seto’s, for instance, could not be more stark.  Seto is hitting everything that moves, grinding it out, and Marleau is trying the shifty thing, neither taking nor issuing hits.  But judging a guy on how he ‘looks’ is awfully subjective, and prone to bias.  How can we judge their effectiveness?

One way is Corsi number.  This is a number that Randy Hahn and Drew Remenda talked about on the telecast many times, though they call it “shots directed at net”.  That is, shots + missed shots + blocked shots.  Corsi is merely that, but you also subtract the opponent’s number from yours.  At that point, you have something kind of a like a shot +/-.  The events are much more common than goals, so you have a much larger sample size and thus less variation.  Corsi (or Hardwick, which is the same as Corsi but doesn’t include blocked shots) can also be calculated for each individual player.  Here are the season numbers for San Jose.  I believe this is normalized for ice time, otherwise we wouldn’t have fractional numbers.  But as we can see, we have Boyle #1, and Marleau #2 (I don’t count Ferriero really).  Thanks to timeonice.com, let’s look at playoff numbers through four games (not normalized for ice time).

First thing to notice is that all of these numbers are positive, which is really remarkable.  That’s just another way of saying the Sharks have vastly out-chanced and out-shot the Avs in the series.  Also, we can see Marleau is currently 5th among forwards, and behind Kent Huskins, who was barely positive in the regular season.  Thornton and Heatley did not have good games 1 or 4 (and Heatley even missed game 3), and that accounts for their low numbers.  As one would expect, the numbers for the top line are all more or less in line for each of the games- low single digits for games 1 and 2, around 10 for game 3, and back down for game four.  The main reason why Marleau is above the other two is because of game 4, where he was +8, where Thornton was +1 and Heatley -1.  So my observation that Marleau was doing particularly bad was almost completely backwards.  Still, all in all, this chart confirms with hard numbers what we already thought- the top line is not performing.  Not even close.  If we can get those guys rolling, we can expect the Sharks to roll better too.