Now that the Sharks have drawn the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs, the Dudes bring David Driscoll-Carignan in from Mile High Hockey to talk about the upstart Avs.  Mike, Doug, and David talk about the teams’ strengths, weaknesses, and likely outcomes of the serious.  After the Dudes are properly educated on all things Avalanche, they give their picks for the rest of the first round series.

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After a nail-biting good time yesterday watching the three games on tap at noon Pacific time, the Sharks finally caught a break.  It didn’t always look good.  The Avs were up 1-0, which was the be-all end all: if the Avs won in regulation, there was no chance the Sharks played the Wings. But the Avs coughed up a goal with 4 minutes left, and I was a little peeved, to put it lightly.  I would have thrown a snow blower at Joe Sakic at that moment if I could have.  And when the Hawks tied Detroit and then went on the power play with less then two minutes left, I had an instant feeling of dread.  And although we were all collectively forced to root for our sworn enemies, the Red Wings, they managed to kill the penalty and go on to win in overtime.

Which gives us the Avs, of course.  We are trying to line up an Avs voice for the podcast tomorrow, but either way, you’ll have the mp3 in your grubby little hands on Wednesday morning.  Some good listening before the Sharks’ playoff start.  Could this be the easiest draw in Sharks playoff history?  Could the Sharks possibly sweep, like my co-host Chetan thought on the radio show last night?  Or will those plucky Avs give the Sharks a good run, and Scott Hannan will be the making of nightmares?  Predictions in the comments, please.

David Perron is my hero. I have a David Backes USA jersey on as I type. Eric Johnson is the future of our children. I love (gulp) Paul Kariya.

Why am I Blues fan today? Because their matchup against the Nashville Predators today at 5pm is the single most important game of the season for the San Jose Sharks. Why? If Nashville wins, the door to Hell opens and the potential for playing the Red Wings in Round 1 remains a possibility. Even if the Sharks beat Phoenix tonight, if Chicago beats Detroit tomorrow, LA gets two points in their last two games and Nashville win tonight – guess who’s coming to dinner next week? Son of a B.

BUT – If Nashville loses tonight, even in OT, the nightmare goes away. It’s not possible for Detroit to fall past #6, and the Sharks would snag LA, Nashville or Colorado in the first round.

It’s as simple as that. I believe the road to the Cup goes through Detroit no matter what – but not in Round One. So strap it on Ty Conklin and win one for the Dudes. The Sharks need a little postseason luck to bounce their way after last season’s Hell-ish draw and this could be step one towards a beautiful Stanley Cup run.

One more guys. Just win one more.

This comes from an email we got for the podcast (make sure to listen, we actually have a guy with credibility this week), asking essentially, “Does the Sharks losing streak (or later, the winning streak) help or hurt the Sharks’ playoff chances?  Does success in the last 10 or 20 games result in deep playoff runs?”

This is an important question, and let me be perfectly honest- Gabe Desjardins’ recent post on something similar is probably a lot better than this one is going to be.  So I’d read this first with a sense of charity, then click over to Behind the Net and read the real stuff.  To defend myself, I was planning this post since a week ago, so I’m not copying Gabe- I swear.

To answer this question, I compiled the record of the last 10 and 20 games of every playoff team since 2001.  This gives us 112 teams, which isn’t a giant sample size, but it should smooth over some rough edges.  I correlated this (Pearson product-moment if you must know) against the round where they eventually lost (or not), but then I decided to copy Gabe just a little and use playoff wins instead, because that gives us more granularity than just rounds achieved- we get 16 gradations instead of 5.

Here’s the chart.  I’ll explain in a minute.

blah blah blah math

Ok, so this is what’s called an XY scatter plot, with the number of points in the last n games (red dots are last 10 games, blue dots are last 20) versus how deep that team went in the playoffs.  0 wins is swept in the first round, 16 is the Stanley Cup Champions.  If there were a strong correlation, we would see something of a line going from the lower left to upper right in each color.  That is, the teams that do poorly in the last bit of the season also bow out early.  Or we might see something completely counter-intuitive-  a negative correlation, in a line that goes from the upper left to bottom right.  That would signal that teams that do well in the final stretch “peak too early” and are more likely to bow out in the first few rounds.

We have what we call in the mathematics world, a “mess”.

Of course there’s going to be some variance, and the graph would be more like a cloud than a line, but here we just have a plate of spaghetti.  If you want numbers, the correlation for the last 20 games points and playoff wins is 0.12, and the last 10 wins 0.08.  Correlation ranges from -1 (late points always means bowing out early) to +1 (late points means going deep in the postseason).  0.12 is slightly positive- it’s probably a tiny bit helpful to do well late in the season- but it’s certainly nothing predictive.  It’s essentially a crapshoot- performing worse (or better) doesn’t mean much.  Let’s look at some extremes:

• The team with the most points in the last 20 games among all teams I looked at is the 2006 Red Wings, who only lost one game in regulation in the last 20.  That team lost in the first round to Edmonton.
• That very same year, the Carolina Hurricanes scored only 21 points in the last 20, barely .500.  That’s the second worst record of any of the playoff teams that year (only the #8 New York Islanders were worse).  For those that remember, the Canes won the Cup.
• Last year, the team that had the best late record of all playoff teams, the Pittsburgh Penguins, won the Cup.  They played the Wings (again) in the Finals, who had 12 fewer points in the same number of games, good for 13th amongst playoff teams.

Does anything correlate better to playoff success?  The answer is yes.  The overall 82-game record correlates better: 0.32.  And even better is the correlation of seeding to playoff wins: -0.37 (negative because a lower number (seed) correlates to a higher number (playoff wins)).  This does tell us something interesting- it’s better to be lucky than good.  It’s better to luck into a higher seed with a worse record (in a weak division) than score a ton of standings points and only get the #4 or #5 seed.  With the Sharks guaranteed the #1 or #2, they are in the best possible position.  Now the question is, can they transform this advantage, however slight, into real playoff happiness?

We’re going to find out.  I’m nervous.

Craig Custance, the NHL writer from the Sporting News (and new podcaster) joins the Dudes in starting the playoff coverage.  He talks about the top prospects, and the Sharks prospects in the soon-to-be playoffs.  Mike and Doug then continue those points in reading listener emails.

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The Sharks are entering another, to quote Paris Hilton, “Huge” game vs. Colorado on Easter Sunday. The Avs will be desperate, their Cinderella season fading before their eyes. As a potential first round matchup, the Sharks would be wise to be on their A game and not give Colorado any sort of confidence heading into mid-April.

Since I’m in the playoff spirit, let’s take a look at how some of our Sharks draft picks are faring in the NCAA and Canadian Hockey League playoffs.

Thomas Heemskerk (WHL/Everett Silvertips)

Heemskerk, who signed a three year entry level deal earlier in the season, didn’t see much time in net after getting lit up for five goals in an 2OT loss in Game 4 vs. Kelowna (2009 WHL champions). Everett battled but lost a seven game series, with Heemskerk posting an unimpressive 3.70 GAA and .870%. These numbers are way off from his solid regular season stats (2.34 GAA and .927%) but his inability to outbattle fellow goalie Kent Simpson leads me to believe the Sharks will leave the undrafted Heemskerk in Everett for another year. He was a find at Sharks rookie camp but at 19, it appears he needs a little more time.

Marek Viedensky (WHL/Saskatoon Blades)

Saskatoon swept Red Deer 4-0 in the first round and Viedensky played a major role, with five points (4 goals/1 assist) in four games and notching a +3. The 6’3 center Viedensky is having a great year and is proving to be a player to watch after his appearance for Slovakia at the World Juniors. Keep an eye on this kid and Saskatoon. He already has two goals in the first game of Round Two vs. Brandon.

Julien Demers (OHL/Ottawa 67's)

No relation to current Shark Jason Demers (insert joke here) this kid is still playing in Round Two of the Ontario Hockey League playoffs. So far, pretty impressive stats – 6 assists in 7 games and a +9 puts him among the OHL’s elite in d-man playoff scoring with names like Alex Pietrangelo and Ryan Ellis. Another guy to keep an eye on as they battle in the 2nd round with Mississauga St. Michael’s Majors. From what I understand about junior age rules, this is Demers last year of eligibility – so we’ll be seeing him around next year in camp atleast. A lock to get an entry level deal.

Taylor Doherty (OHL/Kingston Frontenacs)

Kingston folded in seven games vs. Brampton, but it certainly wasn’t Doherty’s fault – he pulled five points in five games with a +4 and a remarkable zero penalty minutes for a guy with 372 career junior PIM’s. At rookie camp this year, Doherty looked lost and fell fall short of his 2009 2nd round draft pick billing, but his numbers suggest he’s starting to figure it out and how to use his 6’8 size effectively and responsibly. He missed two games due to injury in this playoff series and his team lost them both. Interesting.

Tommy Wingels (NCAA/Miami Ohio RedHawks)

The RedHawks survived a 2OT thriller vs. University of Michigan and are the top seed remaining. They have a date with Boston College on Thurs, April 8th on ESPN2 and the winner plays for it all on April 10th. Wingels has no points in the Frozen Four after being the third leading scorer during the season. I would expect after the tourney ends, Wingels will be appearing in Worcester for their Calder Cup run – especially with Couture now entrenched in the Sharks top nine.

Samuel Groulx (QMJHL/Victoriaville Tigers)

The Tigers won their 1st round matchup vs. Shawningan with Groulx chipping in three points. He is now matched up with the team that traded him midseason, the Quebec Ramparts, in Round Two. Groulx had by far his best season as a junior, with 43 points – and he could be a candidate to be signed to an entry level deal in the offseason. Remember, this is the kid who said his favorite player is Vlasic at the draft. Some guys idolize Owen Nolan or Steve Yzerman – not this kid. He loves him some Pickles.

To not play seven D might be a sin

As I’m sitting here about to subject myself to the new Clash of the Titans movie, my mind has begun to wander to more important things. With the Sharks entering a critical must win game tonight vs. Minnesota, it’s time to take a quick poll of our readers on something that’s been on many fans minds lately. The fact that Brad Staubitz will not play an important roll in a potential Cup run is as much a given as Mr. Sandra Bullock’s love of the Mel Brooks classic The Producers. So instead of throwing someone like Ferreiro or Vesce into the mix just to play 12 forwards, shouldn’t the Sharks very strongly consider dressing Jason Demers and rolling seven D? Demers, despite his recent bomb in Dallas, still offers a dangerous presence on the power play. I’d rather see him play six minutes of mostly PP time than see Staubitz scowl on the bench after netting three 1st period shifts. I’m not the first with this bright idea. It’s been mentioned in our comment thread and on Fear the Fin.

So, with the Sharks entering a must win in our quest for a high seed and a initial pass on the Wings, the Sharks should roll the Wild tonight. They will likely be without Zidlicky and Havlat and Barker is also banged up. Would you start tonight? Bench the Tootoo Killer and throw out seven D?

Alexei Semenov, who has 4 points and 30 PIMs for Moscow Dynamo of the KHL this year, was brought back into the fold by general manager Doug Wilson today, signing a multi-year deal just in time for the playoff push.  Semenov, who played for the Sharks previously in 2007-8 and 2008-9, totalling 10 points in 69 games and a -5, is seen as a savior for a team that has struggled recently and is suffering injuries.  “Semenov may be quite slow, and doesn’t really have the best hands,” Wilson said.  “Also, I wouldn’t say his first pass is exactly top notch, and his slap shot could use a little work, but on the plus side… um….”  Wilson then claimed he “had to go.”

With Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Joe Thornton both out currently with injuries, it’s expected Semenov will play both defense and offense at the same time.  Given his size, it’s possible Semenov might be the backup for Thomas Greiss in case he struggles in net.  When current Moscow Dynamo players and former NHL players Jiri Hudler and Karel Rachunek were contacted for their thoughts on Semenov, they said, “Oh, great guy.  Really fun to hang out with after the games.  And he does the best Carol Channing impression you’ve ever seen!”  When this reporter then pressed for details on the positives of Semenov’s contribution to the Dynamo on the ice, the two players were quickly called away by team officials.

Semenov was reached for comment, but only grunted.

The Sharks turned on a dime once in the past 10 days, ripping off a 4-game winning streak after a 6-game losing streak.  Now they’ve turned on a dime again with a terrible effort against the Stars.  Mike and Doug break it down, talk about the injuries to Thornton and Vlasic (and Clowe), and give an update on the playoff picture.

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This movie sucks!

Although the Sharks didn’t play, last night was a great night for San Jose.  The Hawks lost, 5 points behind with only one game in hand.  The Coyotes lost, Breezy giving up 4 goals on 29 shots. And the Wings won, which in our Convoluted Calculus of Counterparties™ is actually a good thing.  As loyal readers and listeners know, I want to avoid the Red Wings in the first round at all costs.  Seriously, if it meant the Sharks had to dump the last six games of the season, I might be able to work up an argument for that.  But as it happens, it’s not required.  The Winged Wheel is on fire.  They’ve won six straight, and are 11-1-1 in their last 13 games.

Detroit is now only one point behind Nashville.  Given they have three (!) more games against the Blue Jackets and one against Philly (plus one against Nashville), I’d say their chances are very good they end up the five seed.   My earlier prediction of the Sharks facing the Wings in the first round is getting dimmer by the day.  With Phoenix faltering just a bit, I’m hoping this gives the Sharks an easy path to the #1 seed, hopefully facing the reeling Avs in the first round.

Speaking of reeling, how ’bout them Hawks?  Their early season strategy of “who needs a decent goalie?  We’ll just give up 20 shots a game and win anyway” isn’t working out so hot lately.  Although they still lead the lead in shots allowed with 24.9, they’ve given up more than that in eight out of their last ten.  One of the games where they did better than their average, they lost.  To Columbus.  Niemi got most of those starts, so does this mean they will go back to Huet?  I’m sure Coach Q is just thrilled he has such a thoroughbred stable of goaltenders to choose from.

So the Sharks seem to be back in a good position, actually, a great one.  They have a bit of competition from below in Phoenix, whose trapping style could easily eat up some teams struggling for motivation late in the season.  They have Detroit on a run, destined for a seeding far from the Sharks’ first-round gun-sights.   And Chicago’s once-impenetrable armor is now looking like Swiss cheese.

It’s a great opportunity to continue the run tonight against Dallas, who are all but eliminated from postseason play.  No Modano means no Shark-killer.  I say the win streak continues.  Look for the podcast to be posted tonight sometime after the game.