It’s Super Bowl Sunday, and the Dudes would rather talk about the Sharks than watch football.  They break down the encouraging wins against Columbus and Dallas, but lament the discouraging loss against Phoenix.  But both agree that Chicago next Friday is a big test

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

At this point, entering into the last day of the season, the Sharks have clinched the #2, but could still play Chicago, L.A., Nashville, or Phoenix.  The Ducks, having a lot of regulation and overtime wins, are guaranteed the #4. Doug’s wish didn’t come true tonight- the Preds lost.

The worst thing that could happen is Chicago loses in OT or the shootout. Because they have more ROW (regulation and overtime wins) than the Kings, they win that tiebreaker and move into the #7.  So we want a beatdown tomorrow, one way or the other.

It’s possible that seeds 4-8 could all end up with 99 points.  If that happens, it’s really crazy.  Chicago would move up to the #5 because they’d have 39 ROW.  Nashville and Phoenix would have to go to the fourth tiebreaker, because they’d have the same number of ROW, and split the season series.  The Preds have a better overall goal differential, so they are the #6.  We’d play Phoenix (I wonder if playing one team 9 times in a row would be an NHL record), and the Kings would fall to the #8.

It could get even crazier than that.  If the Hawks won in the shootout then there’d be a three-way tie for ROW.  The tiebreaker is points per game in those matchups.  Chicago has acquired 13 points in 10 games versus those two opponents, Phoenix 9 points in 8 games, and Nashville 10 points in 10 games.  So Chicago would still get the #5, but Phoenix would move up to the #6 and we’d get the Preds.

Because Dallas went 3-1 against the Hawks this year, they are still alive- they have to win in regulation or overtime tomorrow and the Hawks have to lose in regulation for the Stars to snag the #8.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend – go Wings!  And go Minnesota – we want Vancouver facing Chicago again.

The Dudes only have one game to talk about- the 6-0 pasting of the Stars – but they do it with relish.  Now that the season is finally winding down, it’s time to talk about possible first round matchups in the east and west, who will likely be playing when everyone gets healthy again, and of course, listener emails.

Note:  I’m experimenting with lower encodings, this week’s show was encoded at 64kB because of a request to make the file smaller.  I want to see if this measurably affects audio quality.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

It’s been a while since I wrote a stats-related post, and I figured I’d write one to piggyback on an interesting post on the Behind the Net blog (not to be confused with Behind the Net, the numbers site).  A while back I did a purge on the RSS feeds I read, and for some stupid reason, this blog was amongst the casualties.  I really must have been in a slash-and-burn mood that day, because it’s really one of the best hockey blogs out there if you are statistically inclined. What I want to do today is highlight some of the stats talked about in the linked post, and who on the Sharks are the best at those categories.

First of all, some real quick and dirty explanations of some of the stats referenced there.  I would recommend reading more about them, but not everyone can spend hours reading about advanced hockey metrics.  And as Doug would say, why would you want to?

• GVT – Goals Versus Threshold.  A complicated stat that tries to create one number for the value of a player, measured in goals in a season versus the value of a replacement-level player.  Similar to VORP in baseball.
• Rating – a BTN stat that is the difference between your team’s +/- per 60 minutes when you are on the ice versus when you are off the ice.  Unlike the regular +/- stat, it helps level the playing field for those on bad teams.
• QualComp – quality of competition.   The weighted average of the Rating of the players you face on the ice.
• Corsi – a +/- stat that counts shots instead of goals.  Actually, it counts all pucks directed towards the net, including missed and blocked shots.  Unfortunately, it’s similar to the +/- stat in that players on good teams generally have better ones.  Of the 28 players that have played a game for the Sharks this season, only 10 have negative Corsi, and most (Moore, Mashinter, Desjardins, McLaren, Wingells) aren’t regulars.
• Corsi Rel – The difference in your Corsi when you’re on the ice versus off.
• Corsi Rel QoC – Quality of Competition calculated not by +/- per 60, but Corsi Rel.
• Zone Starts – the percentage of shift-starting faceoffs being in the offensive zone.

If you’re still reading, pat yourself on the back, because that’s a load of math.  Let’s highlight the different Sharks players leading the categories in the stats that the LOES highlighted, in the order that I think is most important. The following is all 5v5 stats, and I’m not including anyone that’s played fewer than 10 games.

Corsi Rel – Kyle Wellwood – 14.6

It’s surprising, and doubtless related to a red-hot Joe Pavelski and clicking third line since he arrived.  Still, Wellwood leads the team in a stat I believe is miles better than +/-.  One downside to Corsi Rel is that time-on-ice isn’t factored in, and it should be noted Wellwood has averaged only 13.07 minutes of even-strength ice time per game, good enough for 15th on the Sharks.  For this reason, it’s worth mentioning the second place player, Ryane Clowe (14.1), who’s averaging more than two minutes more 5v5 ice time, and who I might argue is the team’s MVP.  Top Corsi Rel among defensemen? Jason Demers (8.6).

QualComp – Patrick Marleau – 0.101

Marleau is way out in front on this stat, with the second place Joe Thornton at 0.087.  Despite the fact that Marleau tends to play the wing more now, traditionally not as defensively important as center, he’s  the go-to guy when the other team’s top line is on the ice.  Top defenseman – Dan Boyle (0.062).

Corsi Rel QoC – Patrick Marleau – 0.885

I’m not sure why the LOES like Corsi so much yet mention QualComp instead CorsiRel QoC.  If Corsi is better than +/-, then Corsi Rel QoC is better than QualComp.  Maybe that’s what they meant.  Anyway, unsurprisingly, Mareau leads again, but there’s a bit of shifting under him.  Jumbo drops to 5th on the team, and Joe Pavelski (0.747) moves up to 2nd.  Boyle moves up to 3rd.

Zone Starts – Scott Nichol – 39.4

This means when Nichol took a faceoff to start a shift, 60% of the time it was in the defensive zone.  That’s a lot of trust from the coaching staff, and certainly related to the fact that Nichol is the best faceoff guy on the team. Like the last stat, it’s a way of measuring how sheltered a guy is.  It’s been calculated that you give up about 0.25 shots every time you take a faceoff in the defensive zone, so this is why Nichol’s Corsi isn’t so good.  With that in mind, it’s unsurprising that Marc-Edouard Vlasic (46.8) has the lowest zone start percentage among defensemen.

Time on Ice – Dan Boyle – 19.13

No doubt Boyle is the workhorse, and even strength is no exception.  He also plays the most PP and ES time.  Contrast this to the Ducks (for instance), with Vish leading the category, but if you look for #2, you see that Toni Lydman and Cam Fowler play about the same amount.  However, Fowler plays almost no PK, and three and a half minutes per game on the PP.  Lydman is the opposite, almost no PP time, but is way out in front of PK time. Certainly important when trying to evaluate a player.

I didn’t include GVT here because there isn’t a day-by-day calculation of GVT that I know of, and to be honest, GVT makes a lot of assumptions about the weights of various measures that I don’t necessarily agree with.  I won’t go so far as to say the attempt to create one stat that measures everything is a fool’s errand, but I feel like I get a better picture of a player when I look at several stats, and not just one.

Just a note for tonight- Jamie Benn and Alex Gologoski lead the Stars in Corsi Rel, so watch out for those guys.

This week there are four games to discuss, and while the Sharks could be on a slight upswing, the Dudes’ individual takes on it differ.  In addition to the ups and downs of the Sharks week, there’s lots of other news to discuss, including the return of Evgeny Nabokov to stateside.  Mike and Doug try and guess where he’ll end up, and take some other questions from listeners.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

After a good week last week, the Sharks respond by losing all three games to Colorado, Dallas, and Columbus.  The Dudes try not to get too down on the whole thing, and explore why fans may be not as enthusiastic this season as much as past seasons.  After some listener emails, the Dudes detail their new picking games contest, and address some fantasy issues.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Don’t think about that either.

The Sharks turned on a dime once in the past 10 days, ripping off a 4-game winning streak after a 6-game losing streak.  Now they’ve turned on a dime again with a terrible effort against the Stars.  Mike and Doug break it down, talk about the injuries to Thornton and Vlasic (and Clowe), and give an update on the playoff picture.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

This movie sucks!

Although the Sharks didn’t play, last night was a great night for San Jose.  The Hawks lost, 5 points behind with only one game in hand.  The Coyotes lost, Breezy giving up 4 goals on 29 shots. And the Wings won, which in our Convoluted Calculus of Counterparties™ is actually a good thing.  As loyal readers and listeners know, I want to avoid the Red Wings in the first round at all costs.  Seriously, if it meant the Sharks had to dump the last six games of the season, I might be able to work up an argument for that.  But as it happens, it’s not required.  The Winged Wheel is on fire.  They’ve won six straight, and are 11-1-1 in their last 13 games.

Detroit is now only one point behind Nashville.  Given they have three (!) more games against the Blue Jackets and one against Philly (plus one against Nashville), I’d say their chances are very good they end up the five seed.   My earlier prediction of the Sharks facing the Wings in the first round is getting dimmer by the day.  With Phoenix faltering just a bit, I’m hoping this gives the Sharks an easy path to the #1 seed, hopefully facing the reeling Avs in the first round.

Speaking of reeling, how ’bout them Hawks?  Their early season strategy of “who needs a decent goalie?  We’ll just give up 20 shots a game and win anyway” isn’t working out so hot lately.  Although they still lead the lead in shots allowed with 24.9, they’ve given up more than that in eight out of their last ten.  One of the games where they did better than their average, they lost.  To Columbus.  Niemi got most of those starts, so does this mean they will go back to Huet?  I’m sure Coach Q is just thrilled he has such a thoroughbred stable of goaltenders to choose from.

So the Sharks seem to be back in a good position, actually, a great one.  They have a bit of competition from below in Phoenix, whose trapping style could easily eat up some teams struggling for motivation late in the season.  They have Detroit on a run, destined for a seeding far from the Sharks’ first-round gun-sights.   And Chicago’s once-impenetrable armor is now looking like Swiss cheese.

It’s a great opportunity to continue the run tonight against Dallas, who are all but eliminated from postseason play.  No Modano means no Shark-killer.  I say the win streak continues.  Look for the podcast to be posted tonight sometime after the game.

Not to say the Sharks couldn’t immediately fall into another slump starting Saturday in Vancouver, but the play over the last two games has shown to me real promise.  Less east-west drop passes and stickhandling, more north-south drives to the net and grit in the corners.  And although the win last night against Dallas was far from perfect, it’s the general approach to the game that seems the most encouraging.  Less fuss, more effort.  Clowe with a move on Robidas that looked like the dressing-down he gave Ehrhoff a week ago.  Seto going a thousand miles per hour and hitting everything possible.  Nabby challenging shooters.  Steve Ott playing like a cheap-ass.  Nice to see the world is back on its axis.

Certainly the biggest downside of last night’s game was Rob Blake’s early exit.  Sure, we’ve been on him quite a bit lately, but his play the last two games was on par with the best he’s had as a Shark.  Although I still would like to seem him get a couple of fewer minutes, especially since Vlasic is back, it’s hard to argue with his success the last two games.  The question is, can he keep it up?  If he’s a little banged up and needs to sit out a couple of games, that could be a blessing in disguise.  We can certainly use him battling in front of the net and getting the point shots on net like he’s been doing recently.  What we don’t need is him fatigued and looking a bit like the proverbial pylon.

Also nice to see the ice-time has settled out a little, defense-wise.  I was just looking at the Vancouver box score from last week, and Huskins had over 22 minutes of ice time to Wallin’s 14.  Very strange.  But last night, Wallin had 15:08, Huskins 14:18.  That’s more like it.  Although Boyle had almost 30 minutes, with a whopping 7:40 on the PP.  That’s three minutes more than anyone else.

Speaking of Wallin, thanks to Jeremy for creating this YouTube gem.  Make sure to comment and rate.  I’ve watched this at least 5 times already, and laughed out loud every time.  Well done, sir.  It’s no doubt the best video on YouTube that combines Wallin, techno, and food.