Not much Sharks news, but the Dudes make their own news with a new friend of the show.  Pics enclosed.

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The offseason has been so active thus far, with the Sharks in the thick of it, making a big trade for Brent Burns.  The Dudes cover that, the draft, which free agents the Sharks might target, other NHL news, and reveal a possible new listener.

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The quote is from Mike Babcock, and you couldn’t find a better one to sum up game 3.  Thoroughly outplayed for most of the contest, the Sharks managed to prevent the Wings from blowing the game wide open.  I imagine Wings fans felt the same in the 3rd period last night as I did in game 2, when the Sharks were just curb-stomping the Wings, yet couldn’t find a way to put the game out of reach.  ”One bad bounce, one bad play, and this game is tied, with Wings having all the momentum,” I thought to myself.  At that point, we witnessed a little force of nature I like to call Hamburgers.  The Wings did not have their own Hamburgers in the lineup last night- they only had a Zetterberger (2 A, but still managed to be -1). Instead, the Sharks bent but did not break, with Dan Boyle continuing his redemption by roofing one with less than five minutes left.

Still, as good teams do, the Wings persisted, creating several more chances, including one right near the end of regulation.  And the old take-a-penalty-in-overtime-but-kill-it-and-score-afterwards trick worked to perfection, one the Sharks had already whipped out in game 6 against the Kings.  The Canucks also pulled it off in game 7 versus the Blackhawks.  I think I can say now that going on the PP in overtime is decidedly a bad thing.  It’s basically the hockey equivalent of the two minute drill- score and you win, don’t score and you will lose.

I’m really enjoying this one, even more so than last year.  Despite the bad headline of this piece, Ken Campbell says what Doug and I said this week – this team could really do it. They are built as well now as they have ever been in their history.

It’s been a while since I wrote a stats-related post, and I figured I’d write one to piggyback on an interesting post on the Behind the Net blog (not to be confused with Behind the Net, the numbers site).  A while back I did a purge on the RSS feeds I read, and for some stupid reason, this blog was amongst the casualties.  I really must have been in a slash-and-burn mood that day, because it’s really one of the best hockey blogs out there if you are statistically inclined. What I want to do today is highlight some of the stats talked about in the linked post, and who on the Sharks are the best at those categories.

First of all, some real quick and dirty explanations of some of the stats referenced there.  I would recommend reading more about them, but not everyone can spend hours reading about advanced hockey metrics.  And as Doug would say, why would you want to?

• GVT – Goals Versus Threshold.  A complicated stat that tries to create one number for the value of a player, measured in goals in a season versus the value of a replacement-level player.  Similar to VORP in baseball.
• Rating – a BTN stat that is the difference between your team’s +/- per 60 minutes when you are on the ice versus when you are off the ice.  Unlike the regular +/- stat, it helps level the playing field for those on bad teams.
• QualComp – quality of competition.   The weighted average of the Rating of the players you face on the ice.
• Corsi – a +/- stat that counts shots instead of goals.  Actually, it counts all pucks directed towards the net, including missed and blocked shots.  Unfortunately, it’s similar to the +/- stat in that players on good teams generally have better ones.  Of the 28 players that have played a game for the Sharks this season, only 10 have negative Corsi, and most (Moore, Mashinter, Desjardins, McLaren, Wingells) aren’t regulars.
• Corsi Rel – The difference in your Corsi when you’re on the ice versus off.
• Corsi Rel QoC – Quality of Competition calculated not by +/- per 60, but Corsi Rel.
• Zone Starts – the percentage of shift-starting faceoffs being in the offensive zone.

If you’re still reading, pat yourself on the back, because that’s a load of math.  Let’s highlight the different Sharks players leading the categories in the stats that the LOES highlighted, in the order that I think is most important. The following is all 5v5 stats, and I’m not including anyone that’s played fewer than 10 games.

Corsi Rel – Kyle Wellwood – 14.6

It’s surprising, and doubtless related to a red-hot Joe Pavelski and clicking third line since he arrived.  Still, Wellwood leads the team in a stat I believe is miles better than +/-.  One downside to Corsi Rel is that time-on-ice isn’t factored in, and it should be noted Wellwood has averaged only 13.07 minutes of even-strength ice time per game, good enough for 15th on the Sharks.  For this reason, it’s worth mentioning the second place player, Ryane Clowe (14.1), who’s averaging more than two minutes more 5v5 ice time, and who I might argue is the team’s MVP.  Top Corsi Rel among defensemen? Jason Demers (8.6).

QualComp – Patrick Marleau – 0.101

Marleau is way out in front on this stat, with the second place Joe Thornton at 0.087.  Despite the fact that Marleau tends to play the wing more now, traditionally not as defensively important as center, he’s  the go-to guy when the other team’s top line is on the ice.  Top defenseman – Dan Boyle (0.062).

Corsi Rel QoC – Patrick Marleau – 0.885

I’m not sure why the LOES like Corsi so much yet mention QualComp instead CorsiRel QoC.  If Corsi is better than +/-, then Corsi Rel QoC is better than QualComp.  Maybe that’s what they meant.  Anyway, unsurprisingly, Mareau leads again, but there’s a bit of shifting under him.  Jumbo drops to 5th on the team, and Joe Pavelski (0.747) moves up to 2nd.  Boyle moves up to 3rd.

Zone Starts – Scott Nichol – 39.4

This means when Nichol took a faceoff to start a shift, 60% of the time it was in the defensive zone.  That’s a lot of trust from the coaching staff, and certainly related to the fact that Nichol is the best faceoff guy on the team. Like the last stat, it’s a way of measuring how sheltered a guy is.  It’s been calculated that you give up about 0.25 shots every time you take a faceoff in the defensive zone, so this is why Nichol’s Corsi isn’t so good.  With that in mind, it’s unsurprising that Marc-Edouard Vlasic (46.8) has the lowest zone start percentage among defensemen.

Time on Ice – Dan Boyle – 19.13

No doubt Boyle is the workhorse, and even strength is no exception.  He also plays the most PP and ES time.  Contrast this to the Ducks (for instance), with Vish leading the category, but if you look for #2, you see that Toni Lydman and Cam Fowler play about the same amount.  However, Fowler plays almost no PK, and three and a half minutes per game on the PP.  Lydman is the opposite, almost no PP time, but is way out in front of PK time. Certainly important when trying to evaluate a player.

I didn’t include GVT here because there isn’t a day-by-day calculation of GVT that I know of, and to be honest, GVT makes a lot of assumptions about the weights of various measures that I don’t necessarily agree with.  I won’t go so far as to say the attempt to create one stat that measures everything is a fool’s errand, but I feel like I get a better picture of a player when I look at several stats, and not just one.

Just a note for tonight- Jamie Benn and Alex Gologoski lead the Stars in Corsi Rel, so watch out for those guys.

Schedules intrude, but the Dudes still manage to record the podcast.  They cover the latest games, the surprising lack of D trouble even with Boyle out, and of course, the Chara hit.

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They waited until the very last minute as expected.  Joe Thornton is the new captain of the Sharks.  It’s a bit of a surprise, though not to everyone.   After talking with Randy, I’m certainly not as surprised as I would have been if it was announced a month ago.  If one guy ‘stirs the drink’ as Randy put it, it makes sense.  The other contender, Dan Boyle, gets the “permanent ‘A’”, with the other ‘A’ rotating.  Maybe the most surprising thing about the announcement is the news that Clowe will share the ‘A’.  No mention of Pavelski.

Of course this is going to be covered and debated in Sharks Nation with zeal, and we’ve had our fair share of captaincy discussions over the past couple of years.  The more I think about it, the less I think I know about it.  This quote from McLellan is a bit of a clue:

The verbal leadership gets way overrated. We don’t  need cheerleaders on our team by any means. We need people  who speak their mind and then back it up on the ice.

Let’s face it, it’s not about us.  It’s not about how good or bad a guy is at a press conference after a game.  It’s not about whether we think a guy is too sunny, or too laid-back, or too intense.  The captain is the PR face of the franchise, and for that reason, we think we should have a say, and what we see is all there is.  Sure, it’d be nice if those two things agreed, and many times they do.  But the real measure is wins, losses, and Cups.  Warm fuzzies in the fan base aren’t counted.  Would you really want it any other way?

What a way to lose.  The Sharks, after possibly the most dominating performance of the entire season, lose after Dan Boyle puts the puck into his own net, on an angle a shooter couldn’t score from 99 times out of a100.  In the postgame, Boyle was obviously crushed, and possibly questioning the wisdom of agreeing to a trade to a team that is obviously cursed.  What’s next, the ghost of Shawn Cronin making Nabby-sized hole in the ice?

*Checking wikipedia...  Ok, Shawn Cronin is still alive.  So we can rest easy about that one.  But I do want Mr. Cronin to look both ways before crossing the street.

Podcast tonight.

In the meantime, let’s come up with a better tagline for the end of this video.  This one leaves me a bit cold…

Not to say the Sharks couldn’t immediately fall into another slump starting Saturday in Vancouver, but the play over the last two games has shown to me real promise.  Less east-west drop passes and stickhandling, more north-south drives to the net and grit in the corners.  And although the win last night against Dallas was far from perfect, it’s the general approach to the game that seems the most encouraging.  Less fuss, more effort.  Clowe with a move on Robidas that looked like the dressing-down he gave Ehrhoff a week ago.  Seto going a thousand miles per hour and hitting everything possible.  Nabby challenging shooters.  Steve Ott playing like a cheap-ass.  Nice to see the world is back on its axis.

Certainly the biggest downside of last night’s game was Rob Blake’s early exit.  Sure, we’ve been on him quite a bit lately, but his play the last two games was on par with the best he’s had as a Shark.  Although I still would like to seem him get a couple of fewer minutes, especially since Vlasic is back, it’s hard to argue with his success the last two games.  The question is, can he keep it up?  If he’s a little banged up and needs to sit out a couple of games, that could be a blessing in disguise.  We can certainly use him battling in front of the net and getting the point shots on net like he’s been doing recently.  What we don’t need is him fatigued and looking a bit like the proverbial pylon.

Also nice to see the ice-time has settled out a little, defense-wise.  I was just looking at the Vancouver box score from last week, and Huskins had over 22 minutes of ice time to Wallin’s 14.  Very strange.  But last night, Wallin had 15:08, Huskins 14:18.  That’s more like it.  Although Boyle had almost 30 minutes, with a whopping 7:40 on the PP.  That’s three minutes more than anyone else.

Speaking of Wallin, thanks to Jeremy for creating this YouTube gem.  Make sure to comment and rate.  I’ve watched this at least 5 times already, and laughed out loud every time.  Well done, sir.  It’s no doubt the best video on YouTube that combines Wallin, techno, and food.  

I’m not sure what I expected last night when I went to the Canadiens game.  I always try to see the Original Six teams when I can, there’s just so much history.  I’m reminded of that one episode of the Simpsons where they sent Bart to military school, and the school’s motto is “A Tradition of Heritage”.  Anyway, I just re-read The Game by Ken Dryden, and I agree with the blurb on the cover- it’s the best hockey book ever written.  You get some great writing about day-to-day stuff of the Canadiens in the 70s, with some really excellent portraints of some of the players on that team. These are guys as hockey fans we know, but not because we remember them as players.  Jacques Lemaire, Bob Gainey, Guy Lafleur, Mario Tremblay, Larry Robinson.  The team of Béliveau (one of my all time favorites), Richard, Geoffiron, et al, is still a little something special, despite the fact that they haven’t won a Cup since ’93 and haven’t really been in contention for a while (#1 seed notwithstanding).

The big knock against the Habs this year is how small they are.  They went out and got Mike Cammaleri, Brian Gionta, and Scott Gomez, giants none.  The only giant they have is Hal Gill, a 6’7 behemoth, but he gets knocked a lot for being too slow.  Think Alexei Semenov with bad ankles.  Damn, I told myself I was done with Semenov cracks.   Guess I need to take a new sobriety date.

There was a ton of extracurricular activity last night, lots of face-washing, pushing and shoving, and general nasty jabbering.  No fights broke out- both teams have jettisoned their resident enforcers.  We saw Tomas Plekanec get into a couple of altercations after some questionable play against Thornton and Marleau, then get decked by Heatley in the 3rd.  We saw Nichol injured after getting run from behind into the boards without a call.  We saw Josh Gorges (who almost led Montreal in ice time (!))  and Thornton trading a little bit of something.  And we saw a beleageured goalie, Cary Price, stand on his friggin’ head for much of the game.  The Sharks scored their second goal on their 35th shot.  No NHL team averages 35 shots per game.

But now we know why he is beleageured.  It wasn’t enough, and the Sharks turned a 2-1 third period deficit into a 3-2 victory on goals by Heatley and Malhotra.  If you were looking at the box score very quickly, you might say that Price managed to cough up another one, but really he kept them in it for much of the game.  Well, his friend The Post helped as well.  Boyle hit the bar on a penalty shot after Hal Gill somehow accidentally-on-pupose threw Price’s errant goalie stick into his path.  Then Heatley hit the post again less than a minute later on one of his signature one-timers.  Those shots go in, or one of the other 30-odd shots go in, and the Sharks win going away.

I was a little surprised at the Habs’ pluck, but I suppose they are trying to make the playoffs.  It turned into another test for the Sharks, and unlike the game against the Devils, it was a test they passed.

Update:  Here’s the Lapierre hit on Nichol.  I’m even more jazzed up about it after hearing Ray Ferraro rant.

After things have been going so well for the Sharks, they lose two of their top four defensemen, and lose in a disappointing fashion to both Chicago and Detroit.  The Dudes talk about what it all means, break down the blockbuster trades in the NHL of the past week, and still leave enough time for listener email.  Also, make sure to weigh in on the new poll question after you listen.

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