Game Seven is tomorrow night at the Tank. I don’t think it’s overly dramatic to say that this is the biggest game in franchise history. Fitting it should happen when the Sharks are celebrating their 20th year of existence as an NHL franchise.

There are two obvious outcomes here:

1. The Sharks deliver a dramatic victory at the Tank and move forward to face Vancouver in the Conference Finals and all is forgotten, like a bad dream. It becomes a landmark series for the franchise and Stanley Cup hopes are still alive. Just another bump in the long road to winning it all. Gumdrops and lollipops and whiskey.
2. Sharks complete operation meltdown and lose on Thursday night and the franchise officially hits a new all-time low. Worse than losing to the 8th seeded Ducks. Worse than being swept by the Blackhawks. Worse than losing to the Oilers after leading 2-0 in the series. This is rock bottom.

I feel like this has not been a heart healthy sports year, but I’m absolutely refusing to throw in the towel and I hope you will join me in bringing the fighting spirit to the Tank tomorrow. Do we want to boys to go into to tomorrow expecting to lose? I remember the atmosphere in Vancouver in Round One when the Canucks played Game Seven two weeks ago. The crowd was rabid and the victory was sweet. Vancouver fans were probably feeling as bad as we are, perhaps worse.

If the Sharks win or lose, I am going down a raving madman in the stands. Join me in taking the following pledge.

• I will wave whatever towel or frilly pom pom like plastic material they give me.
• I will hug strangers and especially the guy who looks like Keyser Soze that’s always on the big screen.
• I will shake my junk with the Dancing Bear.
• I will scream Teriyaki Rice Bowl at the top of my lungs in the concourse.
• I will consume an overpriced jack and coke.
• I will try and fight Bertuzzi myself, if need be, and I will beat his ass.
• I will not sit down during the final period if we are winning.
• I will not utter the word “Vancouver” until the game is over. No matter what the score. No lead is safe.
• I am going to will them to victory…. or go down in flames trying.

Tomorrow night will either be the best memory in franchise history or the worst.

Choose your road, Sharks.

I’ve chosen mine. I am not giving up.

The Marleau Years Have Been Kind When Up Three Games

Something to chew on before Game Six. Here is a record of San Jose Sharks teams with Patrick Marleau on them in playoff series they have lead going into Game Six.

1999-2000 vs. St. Louis – SERIES WIN 4-3.

Sharks are the eight seed here and were leading this series 3-1 going into Game Five. They dropped Games Five and Six and it appeared the heavily favored Blues would win, but the Sharks won Game Seven in St. Louis 3-1. Marleau didn’t play a factor in this series.

2001-02 vs. Colorado – SERIES LOSS 4-3

Sharks take a series lead with a win on the road in Game Five, but drop the final two games to lose the series to the favored Avalanche. Marleau had zero points in both the final two games after notching 11 points in the previous ten playoff games.

2003-04 vs. Colorado – SERIES WIN 4-2

This scenario should feel the most familiar and give us a degree of hope tonight. The Avalanche were huge bullies on the block and chock full of superstars and the Sharks ran out to a 3-0 series lead. The Sharks then then lost Game Four 2-1 in OT and Game Five 2-1 in OT at the Tank, sending the Avs home to Colorado believing they could win the series and causing Sharks fans to see deja vu. The Sharks went to the Pepsi Center and won Game Six 3-1 with a huge second period.

2007-08 vs. Calgary – SERIES WIN 4-3

The Sharks broke the series deadlock with a win at home in Game Five, but dropped Game Six in Calgary 2-0. We all remember the Game Seven win at the Tank and JR’s explosion of four points in the win.

2009-10 vs. Colorado – SERIES WIN 4-2

The exorcism of Dan Boyle and the Craig Anderson Lifetime movie finally ended in Game Six after the Sharks woke up and spanked the Baby Avs the final two games of the series. They won, on the road, in Game Six to close this **** out.

2010-11 vs. Los Angeles – SERIES WIN 4-2

Our memories aren’t this short are they? The Sharks had the chance to close out LA at home in Game Five and could not do it. In fact, they got embarrassed by Kyle Clifford, no less. The boys finished the job in OT in Game Six…and here we are…

2010-11 vs. Detroit – UNKNOWN

The track record from The Marleau Years is there. In this situation, the Sharks have won five out of six series historically, beating two damn good teams in St. Louis and the 2003-04 Avalanche in the process. I know, different roster means different results and Marleau is the only guy still around from that Colorado series, but the core of this team has been here twice before in the last 12 months – and won both times when they were up three games.

Keep the faith.

Game Five on permanent repeat for Detroit. Again and again and again and again….

The quote is from Mike Babcock, and you couldn’t find a better one to sum up game 3.  Thoroughly outplayed for most of the contest, the Sharks managed to prevent the Wings from blowing the game wide open.  I imagine Wings fans felt the same in the 3rd period last night as I did in game 2, when the Sharks were just curb-stomping the Wings, yet couldn’t find a way to put the game out of reach.  “One bad bounce, one bad play, and this game is tied, with Wings having all the momentum,” I thought to myself.  At that point, we witnessed a little force of nature I like to call Hamburgers.  The Wings did not have their own Hamburgers in the lineup last night- they only had a Zetterberger (2 A, but still managed to be -1). Instead, the Sharks bent but did not break, with Dan Boyle continuing his redemption by roofing one with less than five minutes left.

Still, as good teams do, the Wings persisted, creating several more chances, including one right near the end of regulation.  And the old take-a-penalty-in-overtime-but-kill-it-and-score-afterwards trick worked to perfection, one the Sharks had already whipped out in game 6 against the Kings.  The Canucks also pulled it off in game 7 versus the Blackhawks.  I think I can say now that going on the PP in overtime is decidedly a bad thing.  It’s basically the hockey equivalent of the two minute drill- score and you win, don’t score and you will lose.

I’m really enjoying this one, even more so than last year.  Despite the bad headline of this piece, Ken Campbell says what Doug and I said this week – this team could really do it. They are built as well now as they have ever been in their history.

I was so mad at the Niemi tonight, because he basically gave that game away in the first ten minutes. People might quibble on how responsible he was, but I think he was at least partially to blame on all three.

1. Shot through traffic with a deflection, but he had a pretty narrow butterfly.  A 6’2 butterfly goaltenter should be able to cover the bottom of the net when he goes down, and he didn’t.  This was his ‘best’ goal.
2. Clifford’s goal came because Niemi couldn’t catch the damn biscuit, and left it 2 feet outside of the crease for him to clean up.
3. Penner’s goal was just an outside shot with Niemi too deep.

I knew once the Kings were up 3-0 they wouldn’t make the same mistakes they made in game 3, and sure enough, they sat on it, played the 1-2-2, got two and three guys in the shooting lanes, and pulled it out. But the real story of the night was Jonathan Quick, who made 52 saves, only giving up one goal. I was thinking to myself, how often does a Sharks goalie put up a line like that?

So I decided to invent a new stat, called the Goalie Steal. A goalie steal is when the goaltender gives up 1 goal or less while making 35 or more saves. 35 isn’t particularly significant, but I had to put a cutoff point somewhere. 31 or 32 saves just doesn’t sound that impressive, and somehow, 36 does. I went back and looked at the box score for every playoff game the Sharks have participated in since the lockout. Here are the goalie steals:

Notice anything missing about this list?  Yep, not a single Sharks goaltender has posted a Goalie Steal since the lockout.  Nabby had a 34 save shutout in 2007, so maybe I should give him a freebie.  But anyway, the point is the same- there hasn’t been a dominating goalie performance in the playoffs in a very very long time.

I admit this does certainly have something to do with the Sharks D- if they don’t give up a lot of shots, then the goalie doesn’t have the opportunity to steal a game.  That’s frankly true for most games- the Sharks haven’t given up 35 or more shots in too many playoff games.  But in every damn one of those games, they had to score 3 goals (the ‘magic number’) or more to win, or lost it.

Great game last night. And it was made that much better by participating in a chat right here at DOH.  I think we had about 15 people at the peak, which was really great.  Just a fun way to watch an away game, I plan on joining for future games, and encourage you all do to the same.  I just installed a differerent kind of chat, an IRC-based one, which I think will be more robust than the one we used last night.  You can even get IRC clients for smartphones, or a standalone one that you install on your computer.  I already tried an iPhone client, and it seems to work fine, so all those people who want to be at a bar and still participate in the chat, this will be a better solution.

Infrastructure stuff aside, it’s the 2nd line again that’s carrying the team.  You know what?  I don’t have a a problem with that.  Doughty-Mitchell is as tough of a defensive pair as there is in hockey, and it’s nice the Sharks have an answer when those guys do their job.  That’s not to excuse the Jumbo line, which really hasn’t been that great yet.  Joe made a nice play to get his goal, but it was on a line change.  It’s not like Joe, Seto, and Patty were cycling and creating chances for fifty seconds before Joe scored.

But really the most disappointing thing about the Sharks this postseason has been the utter lack of a 4th line.  Mayers played only 5:10 last night, and was still -1, on a goal that was catalyzed by his turnover.  Eager had only 3:18, but at least he wasn’t on the ice for that one- he must have just gotten off.  I feel like Joe Montana when I say “turnovers can hurt you” (not the most trenchant thing ever said about sports), but the Sharks have really illustrated that in this series.  I know icing is bad and all that, but wouldn’t you rather have a faceoff in your zone than a turnover at your own blue line?  Especially for a team that is just killing it in the faceoff dot.  Thornton was 6 for 7 against Stoll and 7 for 11 against Hanzus.  That’s just flat-out domination.

Doug and I will be at the game tomorrow night, but feel free to jump on the chat again if you’re watching from home.  I’d like to hear how it performs.

What, more bullet points?  Amazing!

• People don’t use the term ‘gird your loins’ enough.
• Nobody gets to panic one little bit unless and until the Sharks lose game 3.
• Even then, I seem to remember something about being down 2-1 against Colorado last year…
• Thornton has to make an impact tonight.  Maybe he can fight Trevor Lewis on the opening drop.
• Another big idea- keep an eye on #8.  Just sayin’.
• Doug will be participating in the chat tonight during the game, if you want to stop by.
• Go Sharks.

Here are some random points on game 1, thoughtfully posted in bullet form.  So convenient, because then I don’t have to weave them into a coherent storyline.

• The Kings controlled well over half of the game, I thought the Sharks were a bit lucky to make it to overtime.
• I don’t believe in clutch players as a rule, but Joe Pavelski is making a damn compelling case otherwise.
• The Stoll hit on White was unfortunate and borderline dirty.  My gut feeling is this gets 2 games in the regular season, but none in the playoffs.  Cue Mike being wrong in 3…2…1…
• Thank God for Justin Braun.
• It’s a bit of a strange feeling, but I’m hoping Huskins gets healthy, because with Braun in, our #7 is Mike Moore.
• Demers should have gotten 2 for charging on that hit.  For a second there I thought he was auditioning for Cirque de Soleil.
• Anybody else have visions of Craig Anderson when Quick came up huge in the 3rd?
• Doug’s wife sang the national anthem, and was great.  I wanted to tweet that before the game, but cell phone reception at the Tank sucks, and I didn’t get permission in time.
• I highly recommend the Chicago-style hot dogs sold near section 119.
• I have a semifinal game of my own tomorrow night, but I have tickets to game 2.  I’d appreciate advice on this moral quandary.  I told myself I’d play if the Sharks won game 1, but that game was so good I don’t want to miss a minute of this series if I can help it.
• Is it just me or did Doughty get beat on the outside a few times?
• My beard looks like crap.
• I love the playoffs.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Y73sPHKxw[/youtube]

At this point, entering into the last day of the season, the Sharks have clinched the #2, but could still play Chicago, L.A., Nashville, or Phoenix.  The Ducks, having a lot of regulation and overtime wins, are guaranteed the #4. Doug’s wish didn’t come true tonight- the Preds lost.

The worst thing that could happen is Chicago loses in OT or the shootout. Because they have more ROW (regulation and overtime wins) than the Kings, they win that tiebreaker and move into the #7.  So we want a beatdown tomorrow, one way or the other.

It’s possible that seeds 4-8 could all end up with 99 points.  If that happens, it’s really crazy.  Chicago would move up to the #5 because they’d have 39 ROW.  Nashville and Phoenix would have to go to the fourth tiebreaker, because they’d have the same number of ROW, and split the season series.  The Preds have a better overall goal differential, so they are the #6.  We’d play Phoenix (I wonder if playing one team 9 times in a row would be an NHL record), and the Kings would fall to the #8.

It could get even crazier than that.  If the Hawks won in the shootout then there’d be a three-way tie for ROW.  The tiebreaker is points per game in those matchups.  Chicago has acquired 13 points in 10 games versus those two opponents, Phoenix 9 points in 8 games, and Nashville 10 points in 10 games.  So Chicago would still get the #5, but Phoenix would move up to the #6 and we’d get the Preds.

Because Dallas went 3-1 against the Hawks this year, they are still alive- they have to win in regulation or overtime tomorrow and the Hawks have to lose in regulation for the Stars to snag the #8.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend – go Wings!  And go Minnesota – we want Vancouver facing Chicago again.

The playoff picture is almost complete. It all hinges on a few more games. Does the role go to the defending Stanley Cup champs, das Chicago Blackhawks, or the team that caught fire with the easiest stretch run schedule, the Dallas Stars?

All Chicago has to do is get a point at home against the Red Wings. They do that, it’s red rover, red rover, call Patrick Kane over for either Vancouver, San Jose or Detroit – a nightmare first round match up for any of the big three. Bottom line, you have to go through some tough teams to win the Stanley Cup, but it would be nice for the Sharks to get a little bit of luck. So, if you want to be obsessive like this Dude, follow my simple game plan to Sharks playoff bliss this weekend.

SATURDAY
Nashville @ St. Louis – Go Preds!

Phoenix @ San Jose – the Sharks take two points here and lock up the #2 seed and put the Coyotes back in their place.

Anaheim @ Los Angeles – you swallow your pride and root for another Ducks win, putting them essentially out of reach for the Sharks in the first round and you avoid the hottest team streaking into April. You then set up the chance to play LA in round one.

SUNDAY
Detroit @ Chicago at 9:30 on NBC – Now the Sharks have the #2 in hand, you root for the Wings and throw up a little in the process. Blank the Hawks, allow them no points and set up the fluke that they might not make the dance at all.

Dallas @ Minnesota at 3pm on NHL Network – Dallas need to win in regulation to have a chance. It must be regulation to tie the Blackhawks in the first tie breaker, which is regulation wins. Both teams would have 38. Then you go to head to head record and the Dallas Stars won the season series 2-1-1. Dallas is in. Good night Chicago.

NHL Playoff Schedule Revealed at 7pm pacific on NHL Network – Thanks to one of my favorite blogs, Puck the Media, for making this bit of news public. It’s always such a pain in the *** to wait for the playoff schedule, so hopefully the NHL is taking a page out of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament here and reveals not just the matchups, but the actual schedule on Sunday night at a reasonable time so maniacs like myself don’t have to stay up all night refreshing Safari and drinking Coke Zeros.

In this scenario, here’s how the playoffs would end ( I think, remember…theatre major doing math)

1) Vancouver vs. 8) Dallas with 97 points.
2) San Jose with 105 points vs. 7) LA with 98 points.
3) Detroit with 102 points vs. 6) Phoenix with 99 points.
4) Nashville with 101 points vs. 5) Anaheim with 99 points

You have home ice vs. Detroit, which is important, and Phoenix took them to the brink last year and the Wings went 2-1-1 vs. Phoenix this year with both the wins going to overtime. Phoenix could torment them again and wear them down. Good scenario for San Jose.

The Ducks get the #5 over Phoenix because they have several more regulation wins.

The Sharks would also draw the weakest playoff opponent and the team that goes into the postseason spinning like you did on your 21st birthday. They don’t have their two best scorers. They will have lost (in this scenario) four of their last six. Not too good. Ripe for a quick killing.

Remember, this is a perfect world scenario. We all know it won’t work out this way the Sharks will likely draw Anaheim or Chicago because, well, that’s the way it seems to work for our hockey karma.

Have a good hockey weekend. Go Sharks!